Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for "No" on the Iranian regime falling by March 31, 2026, driven by the absence of any verified overthrow amid intensified US-Israeli airstrikes targeting ballistic missile facilities, nuclear sites, and leadership as recently as March 29–30. US intelligence assessments confirm the government's core structures—including the Supreme Leader's office, IRGC command, and Guardian Council—remain intact despite 2025–2026 protests fueled by economic collapse and reported massacres. Suppressed uprisings, resilient proxy networks, and no mass defections have solidified trader confidence in regime continuity. Realistic shifts would require sudden IRGC mutiny, uncontainable nationwide revolt, or full-scale ground invasion, none of which materialized by the deadline.