**Spider-Man: Brand New Day** opened to an estimated $355–360 million domestically over its July 31 weekend, landing within a few million of Avengers: Endgame’s unadjusted $357 million record and triggering the near-certain 99.9% market probability for Yes. Record $72 million in previews, the largest in history, plus strong tracking that quickly escalated from $230–300 million estimates reflected massive fan anticipation built on No Way Home’s legacy and Tom Holland’s star power. Positive early reviews (90% on Rotten Tomatoes, “A” CinemaScore) and broad international appeal further fueled the opening. With final numbers imminent and reports already indicating a possible narrow edge, realistic upset scenarios are limited to minor reporting adjustments that are unlikely to reverse the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record?
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record?
>99% chance
$437,062 Vol.
$437,062 Vol.
Aug 2, 2026
>99% chance
$437,062 Vol.
$437,062 Vol.
Aug 2, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" has a domestic Opening Weekend Box Office gross greater than the equivalent figure for "Avengers: Endgame" of $357,115,007. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 31 - August 2) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Spider-Man: Brand New Day** opened to an estimated $355–360 million domestically over its July 31 weekend, landing within a few million of Avengers: Endgame’s unadjusted $357 million record and triggering the near-certain 99.9% market probability for Yes. Record $72 million in previews, the largest in history, plus strong tracking that quickly escalated from $230–300 million estimates reflected massive fan anticipation built on No Way Home’s legacy and Tom Holland’s star power. Positive early reviews (90% on Rotten Tomatoes, “A” CinemaScore) and broad international appeal further fueled the opening. With final numbers imminent and reports already indicating a possible narrow edge, realistic upset scenarios are limited to minor reporting adjustments that are unlikely to reverse the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" has a domestic Opening Weekend Box Office gross greater than the equivalent figure for "Avengers: Endgame" of $357,115,007. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 31 - August 2) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 31 - August 2) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 1:56 PM ET
Volume
$437,062End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 1:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" has a domestic Opening Weekend Box Office gross greater than the equivalent figure for "Avengers: Endgame" of $357,115,007. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 31 - August 2) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Spider-Man: Brand New Day** opened to an estimated $355–360 million domestically over its July 31 weekend, landing within a few million of Avengers: Endgame’s unadjusted $357 million record and triggering the near-certain 99.9% market probability for Yes. Record $72 million in previews, the largest in history, plus strong tracking that quickly escalated from $230–300 million estimates reflected massive fan anticipation built on No Way Home’s legacy and Tom Holland’s star power. Positive early reviews (90% on Rotten Tomatoes, “A” CinemaScore) and broad international appeal further fueled the opening. With final numbers imminent and reports already indicating a possible narrow edge, realistic upset scenarios are limited to minor reporting adjustments that are unlikely to reverse the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" has a domestic Opening Weekend Box Office gross greater than the equivalent figure for "Avengers: Endgame" of $357,115,007. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 31 - August 2) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 31 - August 2) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$437,062End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 1:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
**Spider-Man: Brand New Day** opened to an estimated $355–360 million domestically over its July 31 weekend, landing within a few million of Avengers: Endgame’s unadjusted $357 million record and triggering the near-certain 99.9% market probability for Yes. Record $72 million in previews, the largest in history, plus strong tracking that quickly escalated from $230–300 million estimates reflected massive fan anticipation built on No Way Home’s legacy and Tom Holland’s star power. Positive early reviews (90% on Rotten Tomatoes, “A” CinemaScore) and broad international appeal further fueled the opening. With final numbers imminent and reports already indicating a possible narrow edge, realistic upset scenarios are limited to minor reporting adjustments that are unlikely to reverse the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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