**Trader sentiment for whether Sam Altman will receive OpenAI equity by June 30, 2026, sits near even at a 53.5% implied probability for “No,” reflecting a tight balance between restructuring momentum and the short remaining timeline.** OpenAI continues its shift toward a for-profit structure ahead of a potential IPO or tender offer, with recent reports noting a planned tender at $687 per share and Altman stating an expectation to go public within the next year. These steps could eventually support equity grants to leadership, yet no verified board decision or filing has tied a specific stake for Altman to the June 30 cutoff. Historical 2024 discussions of a multi-billion-dollar award have not produced confirmed progress or a firm schedule in 2026 filings or announcements, leaving the outcome dependent on rapid internal approvals that have not yet materialized. Key swing factors include any surprise restructuring update, compensation committee action, or IPO-related disclosures in the final twelve days. A public confirmation of an equity package before month-end would likely shift odds sharply toward “Yes,” while continued silence or delays in the broader transition would reinforce the current slight lean toward “No.” The market’s closeness underscores uncertainty around exact timing amid OpenAI’s fast-moving governance and capital-raising efforts.