Russian forces continue limited offensive operations around Lyman in Donetsk Oblast as part of broader efforts to pressure Ukrainian positions north and east of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk area. Recent reports from early August 2026 show Ukrainian units advancing locally in northern Lyman sectors while repelling Russian infiltration attempts and strikes on logistics routes across the Siverskyi Donets and Oskil rivers. Russian formations in the sector face manpower shortages, reduced combat effectiveness, and unsustainable casualty rates, leading to reliance on small-group tactics rather than large-scale breakthroughs. Ukrainian defenses have held the city itself since its 2022 recapture, with no confirmed Russian territorial gains sufficient for encirclement or seizure in recent months. Scheduled developments such as sustained Russian glide-bomb and drone interdiction, potential Ukrainian reinforcements, or shifts in Western aid could alter momentum before any near-term resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUkrainian forces strike Russian logistics and infrastructure near Lyman
December 31 dips to 54%1%
Ukrainian strikes on Russian materiel depots and infrastructure near Lyman on August 4-5 disrupted Russian logistics and likely hindered Russian offensive capabilities, contributing to the market's cautious stance on Russian capture prospects by December 31.
Russian forces continue offensive operations in Slovyansk direction including Lyman sector
December 31 dips to 55%1%
Russian forces maintained offensive pressure in the Lyman area but failed to outflank or decisively capture the city, with Ukrainian forces holding key approaches. This ongoing stalemate contributed to market uncertainty and modest price fluctuations.
Ukrainian military states Russian infantry cannot hold ground inside Lyman despite ongoing assaults
December 31 dips to 54%2%
The Ukrainian military reported that Russian commanders treat Lyman as a necessary launchpad but their infantry cannot hold ground inside the town. This assessment reflects the stalemate and ongoing contestation, reinforcing market skepticism about Russian capture by the end of 2025.
Russian forces attempt to seize Lyman as springboard for offensive on Sloviansk and Kramatorsk
December 31 dips to 55%1%
Russian military efforts focused on capturing Lyman to use it as a base for further offensives toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, but Ukrainian counterattacks and logistical challenges made the capture uncertain, influencing market sentiment.
Russian offensive in Lyman direction stalls with no capture of railroad station
December 31 dips to 55%1%
By early August 2026, Russian forces had not captured the Lyman railroad station, with Ukrainian forces maintaining control despite ongoing fighting. The stalled offensive and persistent Ukrainian resistance led to market skepticism about a Russian capture by the end of 2025.
Reports indicate Russian forces clearing urban areas in Lyman but unable to outflank from west
December 31 rises to 55%1%
Sources reported Russian forces continuing to clear urban areas in Lyman while Ukrainian forces maintained defensive positions on approaches from the west. This suggested ongoing contested control rather than full Russian capture, sustaining market skepticism about a December 31 capture.
Ukrainian military states Russian plan to capture Lyman remains stalled
December 31 dips to 55%2%
Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces aim to enter and entrench in Lyman to use it as a launchpad for further offensives, but Russian infantry cannot hold ground inside the town, indicating ongoing contested control and stalled Russian advances.
Russian forces continue urban clearing operations in Lyman amid Ukrainian resistance
December 31 dips to 55%1%
On August 3-4, Russian forces reportedly continued clearing urban areas in Lyman, but Ukrainian forces maintained defensive positions on approaches to the town, indicating ongoing contested control. This prolonged fighting sustained market uncertainty about Russian capture by December 31.
ISW reports Russian attempts to infiltrate and seize Lyman but no evidence of entry
December 31 dips to 55%1%
On August 3, ISW noted ongoing Russian attempts to infiltrate and seize Lyman, but no observed evidence that Russian forces had entered the town. This maintained market skepticism about a near-term capture, stabilizing prices.
ISW reports no evidence of Russian forces entering Lyman despite infiltration attempts
December 31 dips to 54%1%
ISW reported that Russian forces are attempting to infiltrate and seize Lyman but have not entered the town. Preparations for future offensives continue, but the railroad station remains under Ukrainian control, reinforcing market doubts about Russian capture by the end of 2026.
Russian sources claim seizure and clearing of Lyman amid Ukrainian counterattacks
December 31 dips to 55%1%
Russian milbloggers and sources claimed Russian forces seized and were clearing Lyman, alleging only small Ukrainian groups remained. However, Ukrainian counterattacks in the area and lack of independent confirmation kept doubts high, contributing to a further decline in market confidence for Russian capture by year-end.
Russian sources continue to claim Lyman capture amid ongoing Ukrainian resistance
December 31 dips to 54%2%
Russian claims of seizing and clearing Lyman persisted, but Ukrainian counterattacks and independent assessments indicated contested control, sustaining market doubts about Russian capture of the railroad station by the deadline.
Russian sources claim Lyman seized but Ukrainian counterattacks continue
December 31 rises to 55%4%
Russian milbloggers claimed control of Lyman with only small Ukrainian groups remaining, but Ukrainian counterattacks persisted, maintaining uncertainty and limiting market confidence in full Russian capture.
Russian forces continue offensive operations near Lyman without confirmed advances
In early August, Russian forces maintained offensive pressure near Lyman but did not achieve confirmed territorial gains, while Ukrainian counterattacks persisted, reinforcing the stalemate and stabilizing market prices around 56%.
Russian forces continue offensive near Lyman but make no confirmed advances
December 31 dips to 54%2%
Russian forces maintained offensive operations around Lyman but did not make confirmed advances, as Ukrainian counterattacks persisted. Russian sources continued to claim clearing Lyman, but independent assessments found no evidence of Russian control of the town or railroad station, leading to further market price declines.
Ukrainian forces counterattack near Lyman, pushing back Russian advances
September 30 dips to 13%1%
Ukrainian counterattacks near Lyman on August 1 and 2 prevented confirmed Russian advances, maintaining Ukrainian control over key areas. This defensive success contributed to a further decline in market confidence regarding Russian capture by September 30.
Russian forces concentrate north and west of Lyman but not engaged in city combat
December 31 dips to 54%2%
Reports indicated Russian forces massing near Lyman but not engaged in combat within the city, with ISW noting no confirmed Russian control of the railroad station or central Lyman.
Russian claims of clearing Lyman contradicted by evidence of Ukrainian control
December 31 dips to 57%3%
Despite Russian commanders claiming to clear Lyman with little resistance, evidence suggested Ukrainian forces controlled most or all of the town, sustaining the market's cautious stance on Russian capture prospects by year-end.
Russian commander claims clearing Lyman despite evidence of Ukrainian control
December 31 dips to 59%3%
On July 29, a Russian regiment commander claimed his unit was clearing Lyman with little resistance, but evidence suggested Ukrainian forces still controlled most or all of the town. This discrepancy contributed to market uncertainty and price volatility.
Russian forces active around Lyman but struggle to penetrate Ukrainian defenses
September 30 dips to 15%2%
Despite claims by Russian commanders of clearing Lyman, evidence suggested Ukrainian forces controlled most of the town, with Russian forces unable to make significant advances. This discrepancy contributed to market uncertainty and a decline in the probability of Russian capture by September 30.
Russian claims of clearing Lyman contradicted by evidence of Ukrainian control
September 30 dips to 14%2%
Russian military sources claimed their units were clearing Lyman with little resistance, but most evidence indicated Ukrainian forces controlled the vast majority of the town, including the railroad station. This discrepancy between claims and reality contributed to market skepticism about Russian capture by September 30 and December 31.
Russian sources claim clearing Lyman but evidence shows Ukrainian control persists
December 31 plunges to 63%16%
Russian military claims of clearing Lyman were contradicted by independent evidence indicating Ukrainian control of most or all of the city, maintaining uncertainty and dampening market confidence in Russian capture by year-end.
Russian forces highly active around Lyman but struggle to penetrate eastern defenses
December 31 dips to 57%4%
Reports indicated Russian forces were active around Lyman but faced strong Ukrainian defenses on the eastern outskirts, with claims of clearing the town unconfirmed and the railroad station area remaining contested.
Russian forces active around Lyman but struggle to penetrate Ukrainian defenses
December 31 dips to 55%1%
On July 29, reports indicated Russian forces were highly active near Lyman but had difficulty penetrating Ukrainian defenses on the eastern outskirts, with Ukrainian forces controlling most of the city. This reinforced doubts about Russian capture of the railroad station, contributing to market price declines.
Russian MoD claims clearing Lyman, ISW finds no evidence of control
On July 28, the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed Russian forces were clearing and consolidating positions in Lyman, but ISW found no evidence supporting these claims, indicating Ukrainian control remained dominant.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims clearing Lyman but ISW finds no evidence
On July 28, Russian MoD claimed Russian forces were clearing and consolidating positions in Lyman, but ISW found no geolocated evidence supporting this, keeping market doubts about Russian capture intact.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims forces pushing out Ukrainian troops in Lyman
December 31 dips to 54%2%
The Russian Ministry of Defense cited a commander claiming Russian forces pushed out the main Ukrainian group in Lyman and were clearing the town. However, ISW had not observed geolocated evidence confirming this claim, and Ukrainian forces appeared to still hold significant parts of Lyman, leading to market uncertainty and a slight price decline.
Russian MoD claims clearing Lyman but ISW finds no geolocated evidence
Russian Ministry of Defense claimed Russian forces pushed out Ukrainian groups and are clearing Lyman, but ISW and independent sources found no geolocated evidence confirming Russian control of the city or railroad station.
Russian forces intensify offensive operations in Lyman direction but make no advances
December 31 rises to 60%3%
On July 21, 2026, ISW reported that Russian forces were 'going all-in' to advance in the Lyman direction, yet no confirmed territorial gains were made. Ukrainian forces maintained control of Lyman, including the railroad station, sustaining market skepticism about Russian capture.
Russian forces intensify efforts to advance in Lyman direction despite heavy losses
December 31 dips to 57%2%
Russian forces increased attacks in the Lyman area but failed to make significant breakthroughs, with Ukrainian forces maintaining control over key parts of the city including the railroad station.
Ukrainian forces hold positions in southwestern Lyman despite Russian offensive efforts
December 31 dips to 55%4%
On July 21, Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces were intensifying attacks around Lyman but Ukrainian troops maintained control of southwestern parts of the city, indicating no Russian capture of the railroad station. This news likely contributed to a decrease in market confidence for Russia capturing Lyman by the end of 2025.
Russian forces intensify offensive efforts in Lyman direction amid heavy losses
Russian forces increased their offensive operations towards Lyman, with claims of advancing despite heavy losses. Ukrainian sources and ISW reports, however, indicated that Ukrainian forces maintained positions in southwestern Lyman, contradicting Russian claims of control. This heightened activity raised market expectations for a possible Russian capture but without confirmed territorial gains.
Russian forces intensify efforts in Lyman direction but fail to advance
Despite Russian claims and intensified efforts, ISW reported no confirmed advances in Lyman by July 21, with Ukrainian forces maintaining positions and Russian forces suffering heavy losses, sustaining market skepticism about Russian capture by year-end.
Russian forces intensify offensive efforts toward Lyman despite heavy losses
September 30 drops to 17%5%
On July 21, Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces were "going all-in" to advance in the Lyman direction, indicating increased Russian military focus on capturing the city. This heightened activity raised market expectations for a possible Russian capture, temporarily supporting the 'Yes' outcome prices.
Russian forces intensify efforts near Lyman but fail to advance; Ukrainian forces hold positions
December 31 dips to 55%4%
Russian forces reportedly 'going all-in' to advance in Lyman direction but suffered heavy losses and made no confirmed advances. Ukrainian forces maintained control in southwestern Lyman despite Russian infiltration attempts, sustaining Ukrainian hold on the city.
Russian forces claim advances in northern and southeastern Lyman but no confirmed gains
December 31 rises to 56%2%
Russian milbloggers reported advances in parts of Lyman, but ISW and other assessments found no confirmed territorial gains, indicating ongoing contested control and failure to capture the railroad station by mid-2026.
ISW reports no major Russian advances in Lyman sector in July 2026
December 31 drops to 54%5%
In late July 2026, ISW updates indicated continued Ukrainian control and no confirmed Russian capture of Lyman or its railroad station, consistent with market prices declining to reflect low probability of Russian capture by the end of 2026.
Market confidence declines as no Russian capture of Lyman railroad station confirmed
December 31 dips to 57%4%
By mid-July 2026, no credible evidence confirmed Russian control of the Lyman railroad station. Ukrainian forces maintained control despite Russian offensives, leading to a decline in market confidence for a Russian capture by the end of 2025 or September 2026.
Russian forces inch closer to Lyman but Ukrainian defenses hold
December 31 drops to 55%5%
On July 19, analysis noted Russian advances around Lyman but Ukrainian forces maintained control, with Russian troops aiming to consolidate control over nearby towns and bombard Ukrainian supply lines. This ongoing contest likely influenced market uncertainty and price fluctuations.
Ukrainian brigade reports Russian forces losing initiative near Lyman
On July 19, a Ukrainian brigade spokesperson reported that Russian infantrymen were losing the initiative in the Lyman direction, though Russian forces continued strikes on Ukrainian logistics, indicating ongoing contested control without Russian capture of the railroad station.
Ukrainian drone strikes disrupt Russian logistics near Lyman
December 31 drops to 58%5%
Ukrainian drone strikes prevented Russian forces from using vehicles to transport supplies to frontline positions near Lyman, forcing Russian troops to transport supplies on foot over long distances. This logistical disruption hindered Russian offensive capabilities in the Lyman direction, contributing to stalled advances.
Reports confirm Russian forces have not captured Lyman despite attempts
December 31 drops to 55%6%
Multiple sources and analyses confirmed that Russian forces have not captured Lyman or its railroad station, with Ukrainian forces maintaining control and repelling Russian advances, reinforcing market skepticism about a Russian capture by year-end.
Ukrainian Drones Disrupt Russian Supply Lines, Hindering Siege Plans on Lyman
Ukrainian drone strikes continued to throttle Russian supply lines behind the attempted Russian push on Lyman, delaying any potential siege and maintaining Ukrainian control of the railroad station. This sustained Ukrainian defense contributed to a stable market price around 57% for the December 31 outcome.
Russian troops slowly advance toward Lyman amid Ukrainian drone interdiction
December 31 dips to 54%3%
Russian forces continued slow advances toward Lyman but were delayed by Ukrainian drone strikes on supply lines, preventing rapid capture of the city and its railroad station. The strategic importance of Lyman as a gateway to Sloviansk kept it heavily contested.
Russian troops inch closer to Lyman amid Ukrainian drone strikes slowing advance
December 31 dips to 60%1%
Russian forces advanced slowly toward Lyman, facing delays from Ukrainian drone campaigns targeting supply lines, which prevented rapid capture of the railroad station and kept the market price fluctuating.
Russian forces still unable to secure Lyman amid Ukrainian resistance
December 31 dips to 55%4%
Reports indicated that despite ongoing Russian efforts and symbolic flag raisings, Russian forces had not secured control of Lyman city or its railroad station. Ukrainian drone strikes and defensive operations continued to prevent Russian advances, leading to market price declines.
Ukrainian forces maintain positions in central Lyman amid Russian offensive
December 31 drops to 56%7%
Geolocated footage and reports confirmed Ukrainian forces still held central Lyman despite Russian claims of advances, with ongoing counterattacks limiting Russian progress. This sustained Ukrainian control tempered market optimism for a Russian capture by year-end.
Geolocated footage shows Russian strikes in central Lyman but Ukrainian forces hold positions
Footage published on July 17 showed Russian strikes in central Lyman, but Ukrainian forces maintained control contrary to Russian claims. Ukrainian counterattacks and drone activity continued to challenge Russian advances, sustaining market doubts about capture.
Ukrainian forces maintain positions in Lyman amid intensified Russian assaults
December 31 dips to 56%3%
In mid-July 2026, ISW reported that Ukrainian forces continued to hold positions in Lyman despite Russian efforts to intensify assaults and infiltration, indicating no Russian capture of the railroad station by the resolution date.
ISW confirms Ukrainian forces maintain positions in central Lyman amid Russian strikes
December 31 rises to 60%1%
Geolocated footage showed Russian strikes in central Lyman but Ukrainian forces holding positions, indicating no Russian consolidation of the railroad station. Russian forces intensified efforts but Ukrainian counterattacks and drone activity limited Russian advances.
Russian infantry losing initiative in Lyman but continue strikes on Ukrainian logistics
December 31 dips to 61%4%
Ukrainian brigade spokesperson reported Russian infantry losing initiative in Lyman direction, though Russian forces continued to strike Ukrainian ground lines of communication with drones and glide bombs, maintaining pressure but not consolidating control.
Russian Claims of Capturing Kostyantynivka Contradicted by Evidence
December 31 drops to 59%5%
Russian claims of capturing nearby Kostyantynivka were contradicted by videos and independent mapping showing Ukrainian presence near the railway station. This highlighted the slow and costly Russian advances in the region, including Lyman, reinforcing market doubts about Russian capture of Lyman by year-end.
Russian propaganda claims capture of Kostyantynivka contradicted by independent reports
December 31 dips to 56%4%
Russian claims of capturing Kostyantynivka, a key node near Lyman, were contradicted by videos and independent mapping showing Ukrainian forces still present, reflecting slow Russian advances and casting doubt on Lyman capture prospects.
Experts debunk Russian claims of progress near Kostyantynivka and Lyman
December 31 dips to 59%4%
CNN and other media reported that Russian claims of territorial gains near Lyman and Kostyantynivka were exaggerated, with Ukrainian forces still holding key positions, reinforcing market skepticism and lowering probabilities for Russian capture.
ISW reports no Russian control over Lyman railroad station as of mid-July
December 31 rises to 60%3%
The Institute for the Study of War's July 15 assessment confirmed no Russian control over the Lyman railroad station, reinforcing the market's reduced probability of a Russian capture by the end of 2025.
ISW reports Ukrainian forces recently liberated areas near Lyman
ISW reported that Ukrainian forces recently liberated areas near Lyman, and it remains unclear how territorial control changes factor into Russian casualty rates. This indicated ongoing contested control and Ukrainian resistance, contributing to market skepticism about Russian capture.
ISW confirms no consolidated Russian control over Lyman railroad station
December 31 dips to 59%2%
The latest ISW assessment reaffirmed that Russian forces had not captured the Lyman railroad station, with Ukrainian forces maintaining control, which corresponded with the market's decline in probability for a Russian capture by December 31, 2026.
Ukrainian forces intensify strikes on Russian logistics in Lyman area
December 31 dips to 58%3%
Ukrainian forces expanded their strike campaign against Russian logistics and drone crews near Lyman, further degrading Russian operational capabilities and supporting Ukrainian control of the railroad station, which influenced market sentiment downward for near-term capture.
Ukrainian counterattacks and drone strikes maintain pressure on Russian forces near Lyman
December 31 dips to 55%1%
Throughout July 2026, Ukrainian forces continued counterattacks and used drones to disrupt Russian advances near Lyman, preventing consolidation of Russian control over the railroad station. This sustained Ukrainian resistance contributed to the market's declining confidence in Russian capture by year-end.
ISW reports Russian offensive operations near Lyman continue without confirmed advances
December 31 drops to 56%6%
Russian forces conducted offensive operations southwest of Lyman and strikes on Ukrainian logistics but did not achieve confirmed territorial gains. Ukrainian forces maintained defensive positions, sustaining the contested status of the Lyman railroad station area.
Russian forces fight within Shchurove southwest of Lyman but no confirmed advances
December 31 dips to 57%3%
On July 11-12, Russian forces reportedly fought within Shchurove southwest of Lyman but did not make confirmed advances, with ISW noting that small Russian infantry groups did not represent stable control, maintaining uncertainty over Lyman's status.
Russian forces remain active around Lyman but fail to penetrate eastern defenses
December 31 dips to 60%3%
On July 11, reports indicated Russian forces were highly active near Lyman but struggled to break through Ukrainian defenses on the eastern outskirts, maintaining a stalemate and limiting Russian control gains, which kept market prices stable or slightly down.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims clearing Lyman, but evidence suggests Ukrainian control remains
December 31 dips to 64%1%
Russian commanders claimed to be clearing Lyman with little resistance, but ISW and other sources reported Ukrainian forces still control most of Lyman, including key positions near the railroad station, maintaining market skepticism about Russian capture.
Russian forces fail to seize Lyman railroad station; Ukrainian control persists
December 31 drops to 57%6%
Despite ongoing fighting, Russian forces did not capture the Lyman railroad station by mid-July 2026, with Ukrainian forces maintaining control. This contributed to a decline in market confidence for a Russian capture by the end of 2025.
Russian forces continue infiltration but fail to consolidate control over Lyman railroad station
December 31 dips to 59%4%
Ongoing Russian infiltration missions without full territorial control led to market uncertainty and a decline in confidence that Russia would capture the Lyman railroad station by year-end.
ISW reports continued Ukrainian control in Lyman despite Russian infiltration attempts
December 31 dips to 60%4%
ISW assessments indicated that Ukrainian forces still held key positions in Lyman and that Russian forces had not consolidated control over the railroad station, leading to a decline in market confidence for a Russian capture by year-end.
Geolocated footage shows Russian 370th Spetsnaz striking Ukrainian drone in Lyman
December 31 rises to 63%1%
Footage confirmed Russian special forces activity in Lyman, indicating ongoing combat operations but no confirmed Russian capture of the railroad station or full control of the town.
Ukrainian 3rd Corps launches counter-offensive in Lyman sector repelling Russian attacks
December 31 drops to 54%7%
Ukrainian forces launched counter-offensives in the Lyman sector, destroying Russian military equipment and repelling attacks involving over twenty enemy vehicles. This demonstrated Ukrainian resilience and contributed to the market's decline in the probability of Russian capture by the deadline.
Geolocated footage shows Ukrainian forces operating northwest of Lyman, denying Russian control
December 31 rises to 56%1%
Footage published on July 8 showed Russian strikes on abandoned Ukrainian vehicles northwest of Lyman, indicating Ukrainian presence and denying Russian control of the area, which kept market confidence low for Russian capture of the station.
Russian forces strike abandoned Ukrainian vehicles near Lyman, indicating contested control
December 31 rises to 59%3%
Footage showed Russian strikes on abandoned Ukrainian vehicles northwest of Lyman, confirming Ukrainian presence in the area and lack of Russian control. This highlighted ongoing contested fighting rather than Russian capture of Lyman.
Geolocated Footage Confirms Ukrainian Forces Operating Northwest of Lyman
December 31 dips to 60%4%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces operating in Drobysheve, confirming that Russian forces did not control the area northwest of Lyman and further reducing the likelihood of an imminent capture.
Ukrainian drone strikes indicate Russian forces do not control Drobysheve near Lyman
December 31 dips to 60%4%
On July 8, geolocated footage showed Russian forces striking an abandoned Ukrainian vehicle in Drobysheve northwest of Lyman, indicating Ukrainian presence and that Russian forces did not control the area, suggesting continued contested control near Lyman.
Russian forces use new long-range fiber optic drones near Lyman
December 31 drops to 56%9%
Russian forces reportedly deployed advanced fiber optic drones near Lyman to support operations, indicating ongoing efforts but no decisive capture. This technological development did not translate into territorial gains, maintaining market uncertainty.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian railway overpass near occupied Dovzhansk, disrupting logistics
December 31 dips to 61%2%
Ukrainian strikes targeted critical Russian logistics infrastructure near Lyman, hampering Russian supply lines and limiting their ability to sustain offensive operations. This contributed to market skepticism about imminent Russian capture of Lyman.
Ukrainian forces maintain positions southeast of Lyman amid Russian attacks
ISW reported Ukrainian forces continue to hold positions southeast of Lyman while Russian forces strike Ukrainian positions nearby, indicating ongoing contested control but no Russian capture of the railroad station.
Ukrainian forces hold positions southeast of Lyman amid Russian strikes
December 31 drops to 56%9%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces holding positions southeast of Lyman while Russian forces conducted strikes in the area. This confirmed continued Ukrainian control and lack of Russian capture of the railroad station.
ISW reports no confirmed Russian advances in Slovyansk direction including Lyman
December 31 rises to 64%2%
ISW reported that Russian forces continued offensive operations near Lyman but did not make confirmed advances, indicating that the railroad station remained under Ukrainian control as of early July 2026.
Russian forces near Lyman deploy new long-range fiber optic drones
December 31 drops to 60%5%
Russian milbloggers claimed use of modified fiber optic drones resistant to electronic warfare near Lyman, indicating attempts to improve reconnaissance and operational capabilities. This technological development was noted but did not translate into immediate territorial gains.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian logistics near Lyman, maintaining pressure
December 31 dips to 61%3%
Ukrainian strikes targeted Russian railway overpasses and military equipment near Lyman, disrupting Russian logistics and reinforcing Ukrainian defensive posture, which contributed to market confidence that Russia would not capture the railroad station imminently.
Ukrainian forces continue to hold positions southeast of Lyman amid Russian strikes
December 31 dips to 59%1%
Geolocated footage showed Russian forces striking Ukrainian positions west of Yampil near Lyman, but Ukrainian forces continued to hold key positions southeast of Lyman, indicating no Russian capture of the city or its railroad station by early July.
Ukrainian counterattacks protect Lyman from Russian encirclement
December 31 dips to 61%4%
By early July, Ukrainian counterattacks successfully defended Lyman, preventing Russian forces from capturing the railroad station and causing market confidence in a Russian capture to decline significantly.
ISW reports Ukrainian forces hold positions southeast of Lyman amid Russian strikes
December 31 dips to 62%4%
Geolocated footage showed Russian strikes on Ukrainian positions near Lyman but confirmed Ukrainian forces continued to hold key areas including near the railroad station, sustaining market skepticism about Russian capture.
Reports confirm Russian forces clearing last Ukrainian resistance pockets in Lyman, city under Russian control
December 31 rises to 68%4%
By early July, multiple war correspondents and sources confirmed that Russian forces had taken control of Lyman city, clearing remaining Ukrainian resistance, marking a significant shift and increasing market confidence in Russian capture of the railroad station by year-end.
Russian Defense Ministry claims completion of Lyman capture
December 31 jumps to 68%5%
The Russian General Staff's Main Operational Directorate announced that the Zapad battlegroup was completing the capture of Lyman. This official claim briefly boosted market confidence in Russian control, though independent verification was lacking at the time.
Russian offensive in Donetsk including Lyman fails to yield significant gains
December 31 dips to 56%4%
ISW reported that the Russian 2026 offensive, including efforts around Lyman, has failed to achieve operationally significant results, with Russian forces suffering casualties and making minimal territorial gains. This dampened market expectations for a Russian capture of Lyman soon.
Russian forces reportedly complete capture of Lyman city after clearing last Ukrainian resistance
December 31 drops to 51%5%
Russian military and war correspondents confirmed that Russian forces had taken full control of Lyman city, systematically clearing remaining Ukrainian resistance, marking a significant operational gain and likely finalizing control of the Lyman railroad station.
Russia captures Kostiantynivka, Putin says forces closing in on Lyman
December 31 dips to 60%4%
On July 4, Russian military leadership announced capture of Kostiantynivka and that forces were closing in on Lyman, highlighting Lyman's strategic importance but no confirmation of rail station capture yet, sustaining market uncertainty.
Reports confirm Lyman under Russian control after prolonged fighting
December 31 rises to 56%2%
In early July 2026, multiple war correspondents and reports from Russia and other countries confirmed that Lyman was under Russian control, with Russian forces systematically clearing remaining Ukrainian resistance, marking a significant operational gain for Russia.
Putin falsely claims Russian capture of Kostyantynivka, highlighting slow Russian advance
December 31 plunges to 63%15%
Putin's claim of capturing Kostyantynivka was contradicted by independent reports showing slow and costly Russian advances, indirectly signaling difficulties in capturing nearby Lyman, contributing to market price declines for Russian capture probabilities.
Heavy fighting reported in Lyman with Russian forces fighting for every house
December 31 dips to 62%3%
Reports indicated intense fighting in Lyman with Russian troops engaged in house-to-house combat but no confirmed capture of the railroad station. This maintained market uncertainty and prevented a decisive price move.
Ukrainian forces repel Russian infiltration attempts into Lyman
December 31 dips to 64%1%
Ukrainian Joint Forces spokesperson confirmed that Russian attempts to infiltrate Lyman from north and south were repelled, indicating continued Ukrainian control of the city and its railroad station. This reinforced the market's declining confidence in Russian capture by year-end.
The Guardian reports Lyman remains a key Ukrainian fortress in Donbas
December 31 dips to 59%1%
The Guardian's coverage highlighted Lyman as a northern outpost of Ukraine's fortress belt, emphasizing its strategic importance and continued Ukrainian defense, which contributed to market confidence that Russia had not captured the city or railroad station.
Ukrainian Drone Activity Prevents Russian Vehicle Movement Near Lyman Frontline
September 30 dips to 28%3%
A Ukrainian brigade commander reported that intense Ukrainian drone activity was successfully preventing Russian forces from moving vehicles close to the frontline, stalling their offensive.
Russian offensive operations near Lyman continue without advances
December 31 rises to 60%1%
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Lyman direction but failed to advance, with Ukrainian drone activity hindering Russian vehicle movements, sustaining Ukrainian control and market skepticism about Russian capture.
Russian forces continue offensive in Slovyansk direction but fail to advance near Lyman
December 31 dips to 61%1%
On July 3, Russian forces maintained offensive operations near Lyman but did not achieve advances. Ukrainian drone activity hindered Russian vehicle movements, sustaining Ukrainian control over the area including the train station.
Russian claims of capturing Kostyantynivka contradicted by Ukrainian sources
December 31 drops to 60%9%
Russian President Putin claimed full capture of Kostyantynivka, a nearby strategic city, but Ukrainian officials denied these claims, stating Russian forces only held limited positions and Ukrainian troops outnumbered Russians. This discrepancy highlighted the unreliability of Russian claims and influenced market skepticism about Russian advances including Lyman.
Russian Defense Ministry announces capture of Kostyantynivka, claims closing in on Lyman
December 31 drops to 63%11%
Russian officials declared control over Kostyantynivka and stated forces were closing in on Lyman, but ISW assessments indicated limited Russian presence in Lyman itself. This announcement caused a temporary market price increase for the December 31 outcome.
Russian forces continue offensive operations near Lyman but make no confirmed advances
December 31 dips to 62%1%
Despite ongoing Russian assaults and claims of progress, ISW reported no confirmed territorial gains in Lyman, with Ukrainian drone activity hindering Russian vehicle movements, sustaining the stalemate and limiting Russian capture prospects.
The Guardian reports Ukrainian fortress belt strategy holds Lyman against Russian assaults
December 31 drops to 59%10%
A report highlighted that Lyman remains a key northern outpost in Ukraine’s fortress belt, with Ukrainian forces successfully tying down Russian attempts to storm the city, reinforcing skepticism about imminent Russian capture.
Russian Defense Ministry Claims Capture of Kostyantynivka, Near Lyman
December 31 drops to 62%8%
Russian Defense Ministry announced capture of Kostyantynivka and reported forces closing in on Lyman, highlighting Lyman's strategic importance. However, no confirmed capture of Lyman railroad station was reported, sustaining market caution.
Russian forces continue offensive near Lyman but make no confirmed advances
December 31 dips to 64%2%
On July 2-3, Russian forces continued offensive operations near Lyman but did not make confirmed advances, with Ukrainian drone activity preventing Russian vehicles from approaching frontline positions, maintaining Ukrainian control of key areas.
Reports confirm Ukrainian control of Lyman railroad station
September 30 dips to 28%3%
Recent credible reports confirmed Ukrainian control of the Lyman railroad station, leading to a further decline in market confidence for Russian capture by September 30, with prices falling to 28%.
Ukrainian forces resume counterattacks in Lyman direction amid Russian offensive
December 31 drops to 63%9%
Ukrainian military observers reported renewed counterattacks in Lyman, indicating continued contested control and preventing Russian capture of the railroad station, contributing to market price decline.
Ukrainian forces report Russian small-group assaults but maintain defensive initiative near Lyman
December 31 dips to 48%1%
A Ukrainian brigade spokesperson reported Russian small-group assaults near Lyman but stated Russian forces are losing the offensive initiative and struggling to maintain numerical advantage, supporting market views of continued Ukrainian control.
ISW says Russian offensive around Lyman stalls in early July
September 30 drops to 24%6%
ISW’s July 3 assessment noted that Russian forces had halted offensive operations around Lyman, suggesting no further progress toward the station. This stagnation reinforced bearish sentiment for the “September 30” outcome, keeping its price low at 24 % on 2026‑07‑06.
Ukrainian brigade reports Russian forces losing offensive initiative near Lyman
December 31 drops to 63%10%
On July 2, a Ukrainian brigade spokesperson reported that Russian forces continued small-group assaults near Lyman but were losing the offensive initiative and struggling to maintain numerical advantage, indicating stalled Russian advances.
Ukrainian brigade reports Russian small-group assaults near Lyman but losing offensive initiative
December 31 rises to 64%2%
Ukrainian sources reported ongoing Russian small-group assaults in the Lyman direction but stated Russian forces are losing the offensive initiative and struggling to maintain numerical advantage, indicating continued Ukrainian control over the area including the railroad station.
Russian forces continue small-group assaults near Lyman but lose offensive initiative
December 31 drops to 64%12%
Russian forces persisted with limited assaults near Lyman but were reported to be losing the offensive initiative, struggling to maintain numerical advantage and failing to advance, reinforcing Ukrainian control of the railroad station.
Fighting continues around Lyman with no confirmed Russian control of railroad station
December 31 drops to 65%8%
Reports indicate ongoing fighting and infiltration around Lyman with no confirmed Russian control of the railroad station, maintaining uncertainty and stabilizing market prices.
Russian forces maintain presence but no confirmed capture of Lyman railroad station
December 31 drops to 63%7%
Despite ongoing fighting and infiltration attempts, ISW assessments as of early July 2026 indicated Russian forces had not fully captured the Lyman railroad station, leading to stabilization of market prices around 63% for December 31 capture probability.
Russian forces continue offensive operations near Lyman but lose initiative
Russian forces continued small-group assaults near Lyman but reportedly lost the offensive initiative, struggling to maintain numerical advantage and facing Ukrainian counterattacks, which sustained market skepticism about imminent capture.
Ukrainian Brigade Reports Russian Forces are Losing Offensive Initiative in Lyman
September 30 dips to 28%3%
A Ukrainian military spokesperson reported that Russian forces in the Lyman direction were losing their offensive momentum and struggling to maintain numerical superiority.
Russian offensive operations near Lyman continue without significant advances
December 31 rises to 66%1%
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Lyman direction but did not make advances, with Ukrainian drone activity limiting Russian vehicle movement near the frontline. Market prices stabilized at moderate levels.
Russian forces continue offensive near Lyman but make no advances
December 31 dips to 60%3%
Russian forces maintained offensive operations in the Slovyansk and Lyman directions but failed to advance, with Ukrainian drone activity disrupting Russian logistics. This contributed to market skepticism about Russian capture prospects by year-end.
Russia suspends traffic through several railway checkpoints including near Lyman
December 31 drops to 63%10%
Russian government temporarily suspended traffic through multiple railway checkpoints, affecting logistics and possibly indicating operational difficulties near Lyman and other fronts.
Putin claims majority of Lyman cleared but ISW reports limited Russian presence
December 31 drops to 69%8%
Putin publicly claimed Russian forces cleared most of Lyman and advanced close to Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, but ISW assessments showed only about 4.3% Russian presence in Lyman, indicating overstatements and causing market uncertainty.
ISW reports Russian offensive shifted focus from Lyman to Kostyantynivka after stalled advances
December 31 dips to 61%3%
After failing to capture Lyman, Russian command shifted main offensive efforts to Kostyantynivka, signaling deprioritization of Lyman capture and reducing likelihood of Russian control of Lyman railroad station by year-end.
ISW and DeepState report Russian tactical gains near Kostyantynivka but no breakthrough in Lyman
December 31 jumps to 76%7%
ISW and DeepState maps showed Russian forces making tactical gains in Kostyantynivka but no confirmed capture of Lyman or its railroad station, maintaining market uncertainty about Russian control of Lyman.
Ukrainian counterattacks and infiltration missions continue to challenge Russian control in Lyman
December 31 drops to 65%9%
Despite Russian infiltration and flag-raising in central Lyman, Ukrainian forces maintained positions and repelled infiltrators, preventing Russian consolidation and causing market price to dip from prior highs.
Russian forces face Ukrainian counterattacks north of Lyman
December 31 drops to 64%11%
Reports from Ukrainian sources and mapping communities indicated ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks blocking Russian resupply and advances near Lyman, limiting Russian operational success and affecting market confidence.
DeepState map shows Russian attempts to capture Donbas fortress belt including Lyman
December 31 drops to 65%9%
DeepState OSINT data showed Russian forces trying to capture key elements of the Donbas fortress belt, including Lyman, with some territorial gains in Kostyantynivka but no confirmed capture of Lyman railroad station, maintaining market uncertainty.
Russian troops attempt foothold on eastern outskirts of Lyman amid intense fighting
December 31 plunges to 65%16%
Russian troops intensified efforts to establish a foothold on the eastern outskirts of Lyman, but Ukrainian forces continued to contest the area, preventing Russian capture of the railroad station by the end of June.
ISW map on June 30 shows Lyman rail station still under Ukrainian control
September 30 drops to 31%6%
The ISW interactive map published on June 30 showed no red icon on the Lyman railway station, confirming Russian forces had not captured it. This final confirmation pushed “September 30” odds to the market’s endpoint of 31 % on July 2.
Geolocated footage shows Ukrainian strikes on Russian positions in Lyman
December 31 rises to 63%4%
Ukrainian forces published geolocated footage showing strikes on Russian-occupied buildings in Lyman, indicating ongoing Ukrainian control and contestation of the area. This likely contributed to market skepticism about Russian capture of the railroad station.
Putin claims majority of Lyman cleared but ISW finds only limited Russian presence
December 31 jumps to 77%8%
Russian President Putin claimed Russian forces cleared a majority of Lyman, but ISW assessments found Russian forces control only about 4.3% of Lyman, indicating the city remains contested. This discrepancy caused market uncertainty about the likelihood of full Russian capture by year-end.
ISW reports Russian forces hold about 4.3% of Lyman with no encirclement
December 31 rises to 66%2%
On June 29, ISW assessed that Russian forces maintained presence in only about 4.3% of Lyman and were not close to encircling Ukrainian forces, indicating that the railroad station remained under Ukrainian control.
Putin claims Russian forces have cleared most of Lyman
September 30 jumps to 36%5%
Putin publicly claimed that Russian troops had cleared most of Lyman and were only a few kilometres from key objectives. The claim was widely reported and briefly lifted sentiment, causing a small rebound to 36 % before the market settled lower again.
Ukrainian forces clear northern areas near Lyman, maintaining control
December 31 drops to 64%5%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces clearing northern Prymorske near Lyman, supporting reports of Ukrainian control and countering Russian infiltration efforts, reinforcing market skepticism about Russian capture.
ISW reports Russian forces maintain limited presence in Lyman but no full control
December 31 plunges to 66%17%
ISW assessed Russian forces hold only about 4.3% of Lyman, with no evidence of full control over the railroad station, indicating the market's cautious stance on Russian capture by year-end.
Putin claims Russian forces cleared majority of Lyman but ISW finds limited presence
Putin claimed Russian forces cleared most of Lyman and advanced near Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, but ISW assessments showed only limited Russian presence in Lyman and no confirmed advances, maintaining market uncertainty about capture.
Ukrainian forces resume counterattacks in Lyman direction
September 30 drops to 30%10%
Reports indicated Ukrainian forces were resuming counterattacks against Russian positions in the Lyman area, maintaining pressure and preventing Russian consolidation, which contributed to market uncertainty and a decline in near-term capture probability.
ISW finds Russian control of only 4 % of Lyman on June 29
September 30 plunges to 28%21%
The ISW June 29 assessment recorded that Russian forces controlled only 4.3 % of Lyman and were still far from key objectives. This reinforced market pessimism, driving the “Yes” probability for the September 30 outcome down from 49 % (June 25) to 28 % (July 4).
Ukrainian forces resume counterattacks in Lyman direction
December 31 drops to 73%8%
Ukrainian military observer reported Ukrainian counterattacks resuming in Lyman area, indicating ongoing contested control and preventing Russian full capture, which influenced market price corrections.
Russian military claims capture of nearby settlements but ISW suspects AI-altered footage and no Lyman capture
December 31 dips to 60%4%
Russian MoD claimed seizure of Pysantsi and Novoskeliuvate near Lyman, but ISW suspects footage is AI-altered and no confirmed advances into Lyman city or railroad station were observed, maintaining uncertainty over Russian control.
Ukrainian forces resume counterattacks in Lyman direction
December 31 jumps to 81%12%
Ukrainian forces resumed counterattacks in the Lyman direction, maintaining pressure on Russian forces and preventing their consolidation of control over Lyman and its railroad station.
Russian troops intensify offensive in Lyman direction but face stiff resistance
December 31 jumps to 74%6%
Russian forces increased combat operations attempting to establish footholds on Lyman's eastern outskirts, but Ukrainian counterattacks and defensive efforts prevented significant advances, maintaining uncertainty about control of the railroad station.
Russian forces continue attacks near Lyman but have not entered the city
December 31 plunges to 61%18%
Geolocated footage showed Russian forces attacking on approaches to Lyman but not entering the city itself. Ukrainian forces maintained control, indicating no capture of the train station, which kept market prices for Russian capture low.
Putin claims Russian forces cleared majority of Lyman, ISW finds only minor presence
December 31 drops to 59%5%
Russian President Putin publicly claimed major advances in Lyman, but ISW assessments showed Russian forces held only a small fraction of the city, indicating overstatements and continued Ukrainian control, contributing to market price decline.
Russian forces hold positions near Lyman but fail to enter town
December 31 drops to 66%12%
Russian Ministry of Defense claimed control of nearby settlements, but ISW suspected footage was AI-altered and reported Russian forces attacking approaches to Lyman without entering the town, indicating no capture of the railroad station.
Russian forces continue attacks on Lyman approaches but have not entered the city
December 31 jumps to 77%8%
Despite ongoing assaults and infiltration attempts, Russian forces had not secured control of Lyman city itself, with Ukrainian forces maintaining defensive positions. Market prices reflected persistent uncertainty and skepticism about Russian capture prospects.
Russian troops intensify offensive attempts on Lyman outskirts
December 31 jumps to 69%6%
Russian troops increased efforts to establish footholds on the eastern outskirts of Lyman, reflecting the strategic importance of the city. Despite intensified fighting, Ukrainian forces maintained control, preventing Russian capture of the railroad station.
Russian troops intensify offensive on eastern outskirts of Lyman
December 31 rises to 78%1%
Russian forces increased combat operations attempting to establish footholds on Lyman's eastern outskirts, highlighting the city's strategic importance. Market prices peaked reflecting heightened conflict intensity but no capture.
ISW mapping shows no Russian control over Lyman railroad station
December 31 jumps to 75%12%
ISW's daily map updates continued to show the Lyman railroad station area not shaded red, indicating no consolidated Russian control. This reinforced market doubts about Russia capturing the station by the end of 2025.
Putin declares Lyman largely cleared and Russian forces near Slovyansk
September 30 plunges to 31%39%
Putin publicly claimed that Russian forces had cleared most of Lyman and were only a few kilometres from Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. The overstated claim caused a sharp sell‑off for “December 31” and a rise in “September 30” odds to 31 % by July 2 (price before = 70, price after = 31).
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions in southwestern Lyman amid ongoing fighting
December 31 drops to 65%13%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian strikes on Russian-occupied buildings in southwestern Lyman, indicating active Ukrainian defense and preventing Russian consolidation of the Lyman railroad station area.
Russian forces continue to fail to capture Lyman despite repeated claims
December 31 drops to 62%7%
Multiple reports and geolocated footage confirmed Ukrainian control of Lyman with Russian forces limited to infiltration and symbolic acts. Russian 'Potemkin flags' were raised but no actual control was established, leading to market price corrections downward.
Geolocated footage shows Ukrainian strikes on Russian positions in Lyman after infiltration mission
December 31 rises to 75%1%
Ukrainian forces struck Russian-occupied buildings in southwestern Lyman following a Russian infiltration mission, demonstrating Ukrainian control and counterattack capability, limiting Russian advances.
Reports Confirm Lyman Still Held by Ukrainian Forces Despite Russian Flag Displays
December 31 drops to 72%7%
Multiple reports and analyses confirmed that Russian flags raised in Lyman were 'Potemkin flags' without actual control. Ukrainian forces maintained control of the city and railroad station, reinforcing market confidence in a 'No' resolution for earlier dates and moderating December 31 outcome prices.
Russian forces raise flags in Lyman but hold no control, analysts say
Russian troops displayed flags in Lyman as a propaganda effort, but analysts and ISW confirm no actual control of the city by Russian forces, maintaining the status quo and market uncertainty about capture.
Reports confirm Russian forces never took control of Lyman city
December 31 dips to 74%1%
Multiple sources and OSINT confirmed Russian forces did not capture any part of Lyman city, with the situation remaining stable and Ukrainian forces holding key positions, including the railroad station, contradicting Russian claims of control.
Ukrainian sources deny Russian capture of Lyman, call Russian claims propaganda
September 30 plunges to 16%23%
Ukrainian and independent sources refuted Russian claims of capturing Lyman, stating the city remains under Ukrainian control, which led to a drop in market confidence for Russian capture by September 30.
Russian forces continue attacks on Lyman approaches but have not entered city
December 31 rises to 79%2%
Despite ongoing assaults and claims of Russian presence near Lyman, Ukrainian forces maintained control of the city, with reports of Russian flags being raised dismissed as 'Potemkin flags', reinforcing market doubts about capture.
EuroMaidan Press: “Russians keep raising ‘Potemkin flags’ in Lyman”
September 30 drops to 30%10%
EuroMaidan Press reported that despite Russian “Potemkin flags,” Lyman remained out of Russian control. The article circulated widely, reinforcing market sentiment that a capture was unlikely and pushing the September 30 probability lower.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions in Lyman after Russian infiltration attempts
December 31 drops to 64%5%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian strikes on Russian-occupied buildings in southwestern Lyman following Russian infiltration missions, indicating contested control and no confirmed Russian capture of the railroad station.
Russian forces fail to capture Lyman despite claims; Ukrainian control persists
December 31 drops to 68%5%
Despite Russian military claims of clearing Lyman, independent assessments and geolocated evidence showed Ukrainian forces still controlling the majority of the city. Russian advances were limited to infiltration and attacks on outskirts, not full capture.
Ukrainian forces repel Russian attacks near Lyman, maintain control
December 31 plunges to 62%17%
Ukrainian defense successfully repelled Russian attacks near Lyman, causing a market price drop from 79% to 74% and later to 62%, reflecting reduced likelihood of Russian capture by year-end.
Analysts debunk Russian claims of imminent Lyman capture
December 31 drops to 62%7%
Independent analysts and military observers stated that Russian forces had not captured any part of Lyman city or the railroad station despite propaganda claims, reinforcing market doubts and contributing to price declines.
Reports debunk Russian claims of capturing Lyman city
December 31 dips to 50%4%
Multiple sources and analysts refuted Russian propaganda claims of capturing Lyman, confirming that Ukrainian forces maintained control of the city and its strategic points, including the railroad station, despite ongoing Russian offensives.
Reports confirm Lyman remains under Ukrainian control despite Russian claims
Multiple sources and geolocated footage confirmed that Lyman city and its railroad station remain under Ukrainian control, with Russian forces unable to establish lasting presence, reinforcing market skepticism about Russian capture.
ISW confirms Russian infiltration but no full control in Lyman
December 31 rises to 64%4%
On June 27, ISW published geolocated footage showing Russian forces striking positions in Lyman but confirmed that Russian forces had not entered the town or taken control, reinforcing the assessment that Russian advances were limited to infiltration.
Market optimism peaks amid reports of Russian tactical gains in Lyman area
December 31 jumps to 70%11%
Market prices peaked as reports suggested possible Russian tactical gains in the Lyman area, though no confirmed capture of the railroad station occurred. This temporary optimism reflected hopes of a breakthrough before the end of 2025.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian-occupied buildings in southwestern Lyman
December 31 dips to 59%4%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian strikes on Russian positions in southwestern Lyman after infiltration missions, indicating ongoing contested control and preventing Russian consolidation of the railroad station.
Reports deny Russian capture of Lyman city despite claims
December 31 plunges to 56%22%
Multiple sources and analysts refuted Russian propaganda claims of capturing Lyman, confirming Ukrainian control and ongoing defense, which contributed to market price decline to 56% Yes by late July.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian command post in occupied Lyman Pershyi
December 31 drops to 69%8%
Ukrainian forces conducted strikes on Russian command posts in the Lyman area, disrupting Russian operations and signaling continued Ukrainian resistance. This contributed to doubts about Russian ability to capture Lyman imminently, reflected in market price fluctuations.
Reports debunk Russian claims of capturing Lyman, affirming Ukrainian control
June 30 drops to 1%6%
Multiple sources and analysts refuted Russian claims of capturing Lyman, describing raised flags as propaganda and confirming Ukrainian forces still hold the city and railroad station. This skepticism contributed to market price volatility and declines for earlier deadlines.
Tweet: “Russians keep raising ‘Potemkin flags’ in Lyman, still no control”
September 30 plunges to 31%18%
A tweet warned that Russian forces were merely raising “Potemkin flags” in Lyman with no real control. Traders interpreted this as a negative signal, and the market for the September‑30 outcome fell sharply from 49 % to 31 % over the next few days.
Reports confirm Lyman remains under Ukrainian control despite Russian claims
September 30 plunges to 14%35%
In June 2026, credible reports debunked Russian propaganda about capturing Lyman, confirming the city remained under Ukrainian control. This contributed to a decline in market confidence for the September 30 outcome.
Analysts and observers confirm Lyman remains under Ukrainian control despite Russian claims
December 31 dips to 62%3%
Multiple reports and analysts, including Euromaidan Press, confirmed that Russian forces have not captured Lyman city or its railroad station, with Ukrainian defenses holding firm and Russian advances limited to infiltration rather than control, dampening market confidence in Russian capture.
Reports of Russian flags in Lyman are 'Potemkin flags' with no real control
December 31 drops to 60%9%
Multiple reports and videos showed Russian flags in Lyman, but analysts and ISW confirmed these were symbolic and did not indicate actual Russian control of the city or railroad station.
Reports of Russian flags raised in Lyman but no confirmed control
December 31 drops to 70%9%
Multiple reports of Russian flags in Lyman were identified as 'Potemkin flags' with no confirmed Russian control of the city or railroad station, reinforcing market skepticism about imminent capture.
Russian 'Potemkin flags' raised in Lyman but no confirmed control
December 31 rises to 57%3%
Despite Russian videos showing flags in Lyman, independent analysts and ISW reported no verified Russian control of the city or railroad station, indicating propaganda efforts rather than actual capture.
Russian propaganda claims of imminent Lyman capture disputed by analysts
December 31 jumps to 78%14%
Euromaidan Press and independent analysts refuted Russian claims of imminent capture of Lyman, emphasizing that Russian forces had not taken control of any part of the city, reinforcing market doubts and causing price volatility.
Reports confirm Russian forces have not captured Lyman city or station
September 30 drops to 36%13%
Multiple sources, including Ukrainian officials and independent analysts, confirmed that Russian forces had not captured any part of Lyman city or the railroad station, leading to a significant drop in market confidence for Russian capture by September 30 and December 31.
Intense fighting continues in Lyman sector with Russian assaults and Ukrainian counterattacks
December 31 jumps to 83%5%
Reports from late June describe ongoing heavy fighting in Lyman with Russian forces attempting incremental gains and Ukrainian forces defending key positions including the railroad station, sustaining market optimism for eventual Russian capture but no confirmation yet.
Russian forces make limited advances near Lyman amid ongoing fighting
December 31 jumps to 81%12%
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Lyman with some territorial gains, but fighting remained intense and control of the railroad station was not confirmed, causing market price fluctuations.
ISW reports no confirmed Russian control of Lyman railroad station despite claims
December 31 drops to 69%10%
ISW assessments continued to show no confirmed Russian control of the Lyman railroad station area, reinforcing market skepticism and contributing to price declines for the December 31 outcome.
Russian claims of clearing Lyman contradicted by Ukrainian control reports
December 31 drops to 63%11%
Despite Russian commanders claiming to be clearing Lyman with little resistance, evidence showed Ukrainian forces controlled most or all of the city. This discrepancy contributed to market volatility and skepticism about Russian capture prospects.
Reports debunk Russian propaganda claiming imminent capture of Lyman
December 31 drops to 50%14%
Multiple sources and analysts warned against believing Russian propaganda about capturing Lyman, emphasizing that Russian forces had not taken control of the city despite months of effort, leading to further price declines.
Russian propaganda claims of Lyman capture contradicted by Ukrainian resistance reports
December 31 dips to 44%3%
Despite Russian videos showing flags raised in Lyman, credible sources and Ukrainian officials confirmed Russian forces never took control of any part of Lyman city, maintaining Ukrainian control over the railroad station area.
Putin's Claims of Rapid Russian Advances Near Lyman Exaggerated, ISW Reports
December 31 jumps to 79%7%
Putin claimed rapid Russian advances near Lyman and control of most of Kostyantynivka, but ISW mapping showed limited Russian presence in Lyman and no control of the railroad station. This discrepancy caused market skepticism and price volatility.
Russian forces intensify attacks near Lyman but fail to capture city
December 31 drops to 54%6%
Russian troops stepped up offensives and attempted to establish footholds on Lyman's outskirts, but Ukrainian defenses held firm, preventing Russian capture of the railroad station and causing market confidence to decline.
Analysts debunk Russian claims of capturing Lyman, affirm Ukrainian control
December 31 drops to 60%9%
Independent analysts and Ukrainian sources refuted Russian propaganda claims of capturing Lyman, confirming that Russian forces had not taken control of the city. This reinforced market skepticism and contributed to declining probabilities for Russian capture by year-end.
Ukrainian Railways chief warns of record strikes on rail network
September 30 drops to 38%5%
Ukrainian Railways CEO warned of a “simply insane” surge of strikes on railway assets, indicating that Russian control of any station was still contested. The market shifted toward the “September 30” outcome, dropping to 38 % on June 26 (price before = 43, price after = 38).
Ukrainian drone strikes impede Russian logistics and offensive in Lyman direction
December 31 jumps to 79%9%
Reports on June 25-26 indicated Ukrainian drone strikes were disrupting Russian ground lines of communication and logistics in the Lyman sector, preventing Russian forces from consolidating gains and limiting their offensive capabilities, contributing to market uncertainty.
Russian forces raise flags in Lyman but ISW confirms no control of city
December 31 drops to 61%14%
Despite Russian propaganda showing flags raised in Lyman, ISW and independent analysts confirmed Russian forces never took control of any part of Lyman city, maintaining Ukrainian control and undermining market confidence in Russian capture.
Reports confirm Russian forces have not captured any part of Lyman city
December 31 drops to 56%13%
Despite Russian claims, multiple sources including journalists and analysts confirmed that Russian forces never took control of Lyman city or the railroad station, maintaining Ukrainian control and lowering market confidence in Russian capture.
Reports debunk Russian claims of capturing Lyman city
December 31 drops to 54%14%
Multiple sources and analysts refuted Russian propaganda claiming control of Lyman, emphasizing that Russian forces had not taken any part of the city and that Ukrainian defenses remained intact. This undermined market confidence in a near-term Russian capture.
Military Analysts Debunk Russian Claims of Capturing Lyman
September 30 dips to 37%3%
Independent military analysts clarified that Russian forces had not taken control of any part of Lyman city and that claims of a Ukrainian counter-attack were invented to cover up previous Russian lies.
Russian propaganda claims imminent capture of Lyman contradicted by Ukrainian defense reports
December 31 plunges to 54%15%
Despite Russian claims of advances and flag-raising in Lyman, independent analysis and Ukrainian sources confirmed no Russian control of the city or railroad station. This discrepancy contributed to market skepticism and price decline regarding Russian capture by year-end.
Russian forces make tactical gains near Lyman but no decisive capture
December 31 jumps to 77%9%
Despite some tactical advances and claims of progress, Russian forces did not capture Lyman or its railroad station, as confirmed by independent analysts and OSINT groups, leading to a peak then slight decline in market confidence.
ISW reports Russian advances near Lyman are exaggerated and limited to shallow infiltrations
December 31 drops to 70%7%
ISW analysis highlighted that Russian claims of rapid advances near Lyman and other Donetsk cities are greatly exaggerated, with actual Russian control limited to small infiltrations and contested areas. This tempered market optimism about a quick Russian capture of Lyman.
Reports confirm Russian forces never took control of any part of Lyman city
December 31 plunges to 51%23%
Multiple sources and analysts confirmed that Russian forces never took control of any part of Lyman city, with no counter-attacks reported and the situation remaining static, leading to market price declines reflecting reduced confidence in Russian capture by year-end.
Reports Deny Russian Capture of Lyman Despite Claims
December 31 drops to 59%5%
Multiple sources and analysts refuted Russian propaganda claims of capturing Lyman, confirming Ukrainian control and ongoing defense. This contributed to further market price declines as Russian capture appeared unlikely in the near term.
Euromaidan Press debunks Russian propaganda on Lyman capture
December 31 drops to 56%14%
Euromaidan Press warned against believing Russian propaganda claiming imminent capture of Lyman, confirming no Russian control over the city or railroad station and that the situation remained unchanged for weeks, further reducing market confidence.
Russian claims of clearing majority of Lyman contradicted by ISW and OSINT
December 31 jumps to 75%6%
Putin claimed Russian forces cleared most of Lyman and advanced close to Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, but ISW and DeepState data showed Russian presence limited to small percentages of Lyman, with Ukrainian forces holding key areas including the railroad station.
Russian claims of advances near Lyman disputed; no confirmed capture of city
December 31 jumps to 78%7%
Russian sources claimed advances near Lyman, but ISW and independent analysts disputed these claims, noting Russian presence was limited and infiltration rather than consolidated control, keeping the railroad station out of Russian hands.
Russian forces repeatedly raise flags in Lyman but fail to secure control
December 31 drops to 68%10%
On June 26, reports highlighted that Russian troops were raising flags in Lyman as a show of presence, but had not established actual control over the town. This undermined market confidence in a near-term capture, causing price corrections.
Reports confirm Lyman still held by Ukrainian forces despite Russian 'Potemkin flags'
December 31 dips to 74%1%
Multiple sources confirmed that Russian forces have not captured any part of Lyman city, with Russian attempts limited to symbolic flag-raising without actual control. This reality check caused market prices to adjust downward from prior optimism.
Ukrainian President authorizes 40-day strike campaign impacting Russian logistics near Lyman
December 31 drops to 63%6%
Zelensky's authorization of a prolonged strike campaign, including drone strikes disrupting Russian logistics near Lyman, impeded Russian offensive capabilities and reduced near-term capture prospects of the Lyman railroad station.
Reports of Russian 'Potemkin flags' in Lyman with no actual control gained
Despite Russian videos showing flags in Lyman, multiple sources and analysts confirmed Russian forces had not captured any part of Lyman city, maintaining market skepticism about Russian control of the railroad station.
Russian propaganda claims on Lyman capture disputed by independent sources
December 31 plunges to 63%16%
Euromaidan Press and other independent sources debunked Russian claims of capturing Lyman, stating Russian forces had not taken control of any part of the city. This reinforced market doubts about a Russian capture by the end of 2025.
ISW reports limited Russian territorial gains near Lyman amid ongoing Ukrainian resistance
December 31 jumps to 78%6%
ISW mapping showed Russian presence limited to small infiltrations around Lyman with no confirmed control of the railroad station. Ukrainian drone strikes and counterattacks continued to disrupt Russian advances, reflecting a stalemate and contributing to market price volatility.
Ukrainian forces conduct clearing operations against Russian infiltrators in Lyman
Amid ongoing counterattacks north of Lyman, Ukrainian troops cleared Russian infiltrators within the city, maintaining control over key areas including the railroad station vicinity.
Reports of Russian flags in Lyman dismissed as 'Potemkin flags'; city holds
December 31 jumps to 77%7%
Despite Russian videos showing flags in Lyman, credible sources confirmed Russian forces never controlled any part of Lyman city. Ukrainian forces maintained control, leading to market skepticism and price volatility.
Reports confirm Russian forces unable to capture Lyman city or railroad station
December 31 dips to 54%2%
By late June 2026, multiple sources including ISW and independent analysts confirmed that Russian forces had not captured any part of Lyman city or its railroad station, with Ukrainian forces maintaining control and repelling Russian advances, leading to further market price declines.
Reports of Russian flags raised in Lyman are propaganda; city remains under Ukrainian control
December 31 jumps to 59%6%
Despite Russian claims and videos showing flags in Lyman, credible sources and ISW assessments confirmed that Russian forces had not captured the city or the railroad station, reinforcing market skepticism about Russian capture prospects.
Reports confirm no Russian control of Lyman city despite claims
December 31 drops to 63%11%
Multiple sources and analysts confirmed that Russian forces never took control of any part of Lyman city, with no counter-attack occurring. This reinforced market doubts and contributed to price declines.
Analysts warn Russian claims of Lyman capture are exaggerated
December 31 drops to 56%5%
Multiple analysts and reports highlighted that Russian claims of capturing Lyman were false or exaggerated, with Ukrainian forces maintaining control. This reinforced market doubts about a Russian capture by the end of 2026.
Reports confirm Lyman still under Ukrainian control despite Russian infiltration attempts
December 31 drops to 60%10%
Multiple sources and analyses confirmed that Russian forces had not captured Lyman city or its key infrastructure, with Ukrainian forces maintaining control despite Russian infiltration and propaganda claims.
ISW confirms Russian presence in 4.3% of Lyman but no full control
December 31 rises to 69%3%
ISW mapping showed limited Russian presence in Lyman, with only a small portion of the city under Russian control, suggesting the railroad station remained under Ukrainian control and limiting market optimism about capture.
DeepStateMap flags Lyman railway under Russian control
September 30 plunges to 23%17%
DeepStateMap updated its live map to display a Russian‑controlled rail icon at Lyman, providing an independent visual confirmation. The update coincided with a sharp swing for the “September 30” market, dropping the probability from 40 % to 23 % on 2026‑07‑05.
Russian forces continue attacks near Lyman but fail to capture city
December 31 dips to 61%2%
Despite ongoing assaults and infiltration attempts, Russian forces have not captured Lyman city or its railroad station. Ukrainian defenses remain robust, and reports describe Russian 'Potemkin flags' as propaganda without actual territorial control.
Putin exaggerates Russian advances near Lyman, ISW reports limited control
December 31 drops to 69%8%
Putin claimed rapid Russian advances near Lyman, but ISW analysis showed only limited Russian presence (about 4.3% of Lyman) and shallow infiltrations rather than secured territory, tempering market enthusiasm and causing price volatility.
Russian propaganda claims false advances and flag raisings in Lyman
December 31 drops to 61%5%
Russian state media and milbloggers circulated footage of Russian flags in Lyman, but independent analysts and ISW assessed these as 'Potemkin flags' with no real territorial gains, reinforcing market doubts about Russian capture prospects.
Russian forces strike Ukrainian positions near Lyman but make no tactical gains
Russian forces conducted strikes and used glide bombs near Lyman but Ukrainian commanders reported the situation as stable with no tactical gains for Russia, indicating continued Ukrainian control over the area including the railroad station.
Russian forces conduct strikes in Lyman but fail to advance tactically
December 31 drops to 49%12%
On June 25, Russian forces struck Ukrainian positions in southern Lyman but did not make tactical gains. Ukrainian commanders reported the situation as stable, indicating continued contested control and no Russian capture of the train station.
Russian forces continue offensive operations near Lyman but make no confirmed advances
December 31 jumps to 69%6%
Despite ongoing Russian strikes and infiltration missions near Lyman, no confirmed advances or capture of the Lyman railroad station occurred, reflecting persistent Ukrainian resistance and logistical challenges for Russia.
Market uncertainty rises amid conflicting reports on Lyman control
September 30 drops to 37%12%
Conflicting reports about control of Lyman led to volatile market prices for the September 30 outcome, with prices swinging between 70% and 37%, reflecting uncertainty about Russian capture prospects.
Russian Forces Strike Southern Lyman but Fail to Make Tactical Gains
September 30 plunges to 40%30%
Geolocated footage showed Russian strikes in southern Lyman, but Ukrainian commanders reported that the situation remained stable with no Russian tactical gains.
Russian Defense Minister orders acceleration of advances on Lyman axis
December 31 jumps to 79%9%
Following reports of slow progress and inflated claims of territorial control, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov ordered the Western grouping to accelerate advances along the Lyman axis, boosting market confidence in Russian capture prospects.
Ukrainian chief says Russia is adjusting its offensive plans near Lyman
December 31 drops to 63%7%
Syrskyi said Russian commanders had “adjusted” plans and were forming new divisions, interpreted as an admission of stalled progress. The price slipped from 70 % to 63 % as confidence in a capture waned.
ISW map shows Russian presence limited to small infiltrations in Lyman
December 31 jumps to 75%12%
ISW's June 24 map assessment indicated Russian forces held only about 4.3% of Lyman through infiltrations, with no consolidated control, reinforcing market skepticism about Russian capture by mid-2026.
ISW map shows Russian‑controlled area covering Lyman rail station
September 30 drops to 37%12%
ISW released a terrain‑control map for Lyman on 24 June showing a patch of red over the rail station area, confirming Russian presence. The confirmation caused a price dip for the “September 30” option (from 49 % to 37 % by 30 June) as traders reassessed the likelihood of a later deadline being met.
Analysts report Russian advances near Lyman are limited and contested
December 31 drops to 60%10%
Independent analysts and Ukrainian officials reported that Russian advances near Lyman were shallow infiltrations rather than secured territory, with Ukrainian forces successfully pushing back. This tempered market optimism about a Russian capture by year-end.
CNN says Russian claims of Lyman progress are exaggerated
December 31 drops to 45%7%
A CNN report highlighted that Russian claims of progress around Lyman were exaggerated and that Russia was only inching forward. This skeptical coverage coincided with a pull‑back in the “December 31” odds to 45 % on June 15, signalling market doubt.
Reports highlight ongoing contested control and intensified fighting near Lyman
December 31 jumps to 74%6%
Late June 2026 reports indicated ongoing contested control of Lyman with intensified fighting and infiltration missions, with Ukrainian forces pushing back Russian advances, reflecting uncertainty in control status.
Experts caution Russian progress near Lyman is exaggerated despite ongoing infiltration
December 31 drops to 62%6%
On June 24, CNN reported that while Russian forces continue to inch forward near Lyman using infiltration tactics, claims of significant progress are overstated. This tempered market enthusiasm, contributing to price fluctuations.
ISW Map Shows Ukrainian Control Maintained in Lyman Tactical Area
The ISW assessed control of terrain map for June 24, 2026, showed Ukrainian forces holding Lyman and surrounding areas, with no indication of Russian capture of the railroad station. This reinforced market skepticism about Russian capture prospects.
ISW map shows Ukrainian forces holding eastern Lyman despite Russian infiltration attempts
December 31 surges to 69%18%
ISW's June 24 assessment showed Ukrainian forces maintaining control in eastern Lyman while Russian forces continued infiltration attempts in central parts. The railroad station area remained under Ukrainian control with no red shading on the ISW map, indicating no Russian capture of the station.
Experts say Russian claims of progress near Lyman are exaggerated
December 31 dips to 50%4%
Analysts noted that Russian forces were using infiltration tactics near Lyman but had not achieved significant territorial gains, with Ukrainian forces maintaining defensive positions. This tempered market optimism about imminent Russian capture of the railroad station.
Experts say Russian progress near Lyman is exaggerated despite infiltration efforts
September 30 plunges to 22%20%
Analysts and Ukrainian sources reported that Russian advances near Lyman were limited to small infiltration groups and that the city remained under Ukrainian control, leading to further market price declines for capture by September 30.
Analyst states Lyman is 'about to fall' to Russian forces
December 31 jumps to 77%13%
An analyst noted that Lyman was 'about to fall' to Russian forces, reflecting increased expectations of Russian capture, which contributed to a price increase for the December 31 outcome to 77% by June 26.
Russian troops attempt to infiltrate eastern outskirts of Lyman amid difficult fighting
December 31 dips to 50%2%
DeepState reported Russian forces attempting infiltration on Lyman's eastern outskirts with increased activity around the city, but the overall situation inside Lyman remained stable with Ukrainian control intact. This maintained market skepticism about Russian capture.
Russian President Putin claims strength and rejects diplomatic solutions amid ongoing fighting near Lyman
December 31 jumps to 76%6%
Putin's speech reinforced Russia's resolve to continue military efforts, including around Lyman, despite limited territorial gains and Ukrainian resistance, contributing to market uncertainty about Russian capture of Lyman's railroad station.
ISW map shows no Russian control of Lyman railroad station
December 31 drops to 56%5%
ISW's assessed control of terrain map for June 24 showed that Russian forces had not captured the Lyman railroad station, confirming ongoing Ukrainian control and undermining Russian claims of progress, which contributed to declining market prices.
ISW reports ongoing fighting around Lyman with no Russian capture of railroad station
December 31 rises to 51%2%
Geolocated footage showed Russian and Ukrainian forces striking each other near Lyman, with no evidence of Russian control over the railroad station, maintaining market skepticism about Russian capture by year-end.
ISW Map Shows Limited Russian Control in Lyman Tactical Area
ISW's June 24 map indicated Russian forces had limited control in the Lyman area, with no confirmed capture of the Lyman railroad station. This reinforced market skepticism about imminent Russian capture of the station.
ISW analysis highlights Russian infiltration and pressure in Lyman but confirms Ukrainian hold on eastern parts
December 31 drops to 69%9%
ISW reported Russian infiltration missions and increased assaults in central Lyman, exploiting summer foliage for cover, but Ukrainian forces maintained positions in the east, preventing Russian consolidation of the railroad station area.
CNN reports Russian advances near Lyman exaggerated; city remains under Ukrainian control
December 31 dips to 56%3%
Independent reporting highlighted that Russian advances in Donetsk region including Lyman were overstated, with Russian forces using infiltration tactics but failing to capture the city or its railroad station, reinforcing skepticism about Russian capture prospects.
Ukrainian forces maintain positions in Lyman amid Russian infiltration attempts
December 31 drops to 69%6%
Despite Russian infiltration missions and shelling in and around Lyman, Ukrainian forces held their positions, preventing Russian consolidation of control over the city and its key infrastructure, including the railroad station.
Russia continues slow advances in eastern Ukraine but fails to capture Lyman
December 31 rises to 74%2%
Russian troops made incremental gains in Donetsk region but failed to penetrate Ukrainian defenses in Lyman, with reports indicating only infiltration tactics rather than full control. This maintained market uncertainty and limited price increases.
ISW map shows Russian forces hold limited presence in Lyman area but no full control
ISW assessed Russian forces maintain a presence in a small fraction of Lyman but have not captured the railroad station or significant territory, indicating ongoing contested control and no confirmed capture.
ISW Map Confirms Ukrainian Control of Lyman Railroad Station
December 31 drops to 72%7%
ISW's assessed control map showed Ukrainian forces holding the Lyman railroad station area, contradicting Russian claims of capture. This confirmation led to market corrections with a price decline from the June peak for the December 31 outcome.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions in and around Lyman
December 31 drops to 53%11%
On June 23, Ukrainian forces struck Russian servicemembers near Lyman, countering Russian infiltration efforts and maintaining control over key areas including the railroad station, which pressured market prices downward.
Russian forces intensify attacks north of Lyman amid fuel supply issues
December 31 surges to 69%16%
Russian forces increased offensive operations north of Lyman but faced logistical challenges due to Ukrainian drone strikes on supply lines, limiting their ability to consolidate gains. This pressure contributed to a temporary market price peak for the December 31 outcome.
Ukrainian spokesperson reports intensified Russian attacks in Lyman direction amid fuel supply issues
December 31 jumps to 70%7%
Russian forces increased attacks to advance north of Lyman but faced logistical challenges due to Ukrainian drone strikes on supply lines, limiting their operational effectiveness and dampening capture prospects.
Russian troops attempt to infiltrate eastern outskirts of Lyman amid difficult fighting
December 31 dips to 48%3%
Reports from DeepState indicate ongoing Russian attempts to infiltrate Lyman's outskirts, but the situation remained difficult and contested, with no confirmed capture of the railroad station, sustaining market skepticism about Russian success.
Russian forces attempt to infiltrate eastern outskirts of Lyman amid difficult situation
December 31 drops to 65%11%
Reports from DeepState indicated Russian attempts to infiltrate eastern outskirts of Lyman with ongoing fighting near nearby settlements, maintaining a contested situation around the city and railroad station.
Russian forces intensify attacks near Lyman but face fuel supply issues
December 31 jumps to 69%8%
Russian forces intensified attacks north of Lyman to advance before fuel shortages worsen due to Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian logistics. This constrained Russian operational capabilities and cast doubt on their ability to secure Lyman soon, causing mixed market reactions.
Russian Forces Attempt to Infiltrate Eastern Outskirts of Lyman
September 30 dips to 46%3%
Military analysts reported that Russian forces were attempting to infiltrate the eastern outskirts of Lyman, highlighting a difficult situation but confirming that Russia did not yet control the city.
Russian forces attempt infiltration on eastern outskirts of Lyman; situation remains difficult
December 31 rises to 61%4%
Ukrainian military analysts reported Russian attempts to infiltrate the eastern outskirts of Lyman with increased activity around the city, but the overall situation inside Lyman remained stable with Ukrainian forces successfully countering assaults, maintaining control of key areas.
DeepState Reports Russian Attempts to Infiltrate Eastern Outskirts of Lyman
December 31 jumps to 73%5%
Military analysts reported that Russian troops were actively attempting to infiltrate the eastern outskirts of Lyman, raising concerns about the stability of the city's defenses.
Russian military splits Ukrainian forces in Krasny Liman, reaches Novatorskaya train station
December 31 drops to 62%14%
Russian forces reportedly split Ukrainian forces into sectors and reached the Novatorskaya train station in Lyman, indicating pressure on the city. Despite this, Ukrainian forces were retreating beyond railroad tracks, and the main Lyman railroad station remained contested.
Putin signals readiness for peace talks but demands Ukrainian capitulation
December 31 rises to 72%2%
Putin stated Russia is ready for peace talks based on prior demands amounting to Ukrainian capitulation, but no negotiated settlement granting Russia control of Lyman was announced, leaving market resolution dependent on military control.
Russian forces advance southwest of Rai-Oleksandrivka near Lyman amid ongoing fighting
December 31 jumps to 78%6%
Russian advances near Lyman were reported, but Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian positions, indicating a fluid frontline with no decisive Russian capture of the Lyman railroad station.
Russian MoD Claims Advances in Southern Lyman Amid AI-Altered Footage Concerns
September 30 drops to 40%9%
The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed advances in southern and southwestern Lyman, though analysts warned that accompanying flag-raising footage may have been AI-altered.
Russian forces intensify attacks near Lyman with numerous assault attempts
December 31 surges to 79%16%
On June 22, 2026, Russian troops launched 24 attacks near Lyman and adjacent settlements, reflecting sustained offensive efforts. Despite this, Ukrainian defenders maintained resistance, contributing to market volatility and a moderate price increase.
Russian MoD says 25th Combined Arms Army advances in southern Lyman
December 31 jumps to 66%14%
The Russian MoD announced that elements of the 25th Combined Arms Army were advancing in southern and southwestern Lyman. The announcement lifted “December 31” odds to 66 % (price before = 52, price after = 66).
Russian MoD claims advances in Lyman disputed by ISW as possibly AI-altered footage
Russian Ministry of Defense claimed advances and flag-raising in Lyman, but ISW could not verify and suspected AI-altered footage, casting doubt on Russian control claims and sustaining market skepticism.
Russian forces continue infiltration attempts near Lyman but Ukrainian forces hold positions
December 31 jumps to 75%11%
Russian sources claimed advances near Lyman including seizure of nearby train stations, but geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions and maintaining control in eastern Lyman and surrounding areas. This indicated ongoing contested control rather than Russian capture.
Russian forces seize Brusyn Train Station southwest of Lyman amid infiltration missions
December 31 jumps to 76%12%
Russian milbloggers claimed seizure of the Brusyn Train Station near Lyman, signaling tactical gains. However, Ukrainian forces continued to contest the area, and the Lyman railroad station itself remained under Ukrainian control, limiting the impact on the market.
Russian claims of seizing Brusyn Train Station near Lyman disputed
December 31 jumps to 75%9%
Russian milbloggers claimed seizure of Brusyn Train Station southwest of Lyman, but independent assessments and Ukrainian reports indicated ongoing contested control and infiltration missions, undermining Russian claims and affecting market confidence.
Russian forces continue infiltration missions near Lyman but make no confirmed advances
December 31 drops to 54%11%
Despite Russian claims of advances and seizing nearby train stations, ISW and geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions and no confirmed Russian control of Lyman railroad station, sustaining market doubts.
Russian milbloggers claim seizure of Brusyn Train Station southwest of Lyman
December 31 jumps to 76%8%
Russian sources claimed Russian forces seized the Brusyn Train Station southwest of Lyman and advanced in nearby areas, suggesting attempts to control key railway infrastructure near Lyman, impacting market perceptions of Russian progress.
Russian forces intensify assaults near Lyman with increased infiltration attempts
December 31 jumps to 78%14%
By June 21, Russian troops intensified assaults and infiltration missions near Lyman, exploiting foliage for concealment, but Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian positions and repel advances, maintaining a contested frontline.
Russian forces intensify infiltration missions near Lyman but face strong Ukrainian resistance
December 31 rises to 52%3%
On June 21, ISW reported Russian infiltration attempts near Lyman with claims of advances, but geolocated footage showed Ukrainian strikes on Russian positions, indicating contested control. This mixed situation caused market volatility with a dip and rebound in prices.
Milbloggers claim Russian forces capture Brusyn train station near Lyman
December 31 jumps to 59%14%
Milbloggers reported the seizure of the Brusyn train station southwest of Lyman. The claim, echoed by ISW’s assessment, coincided with a sharp rise in the “December 31” odds to 59 % on June 18 (price before = 45, price after = 59).
Russian forces claimed advances near Lyman including seizure of Brusyn Train Station
December 31 jumps to 56%7%
Russian sources claimed advances near Lyman and seizure of Brusyn Train Station southwest of Lyman, but Ukrainian forces continued to contest the area. This led to some market optimism but uncertainty remained about full capture of Lyman railroad station.
Russian forces fail to capture Brusyn Train Station near Lyman
June 30 plunges to 1%15%
Russian forces failed to capture the Brusyn Train Station southwest of Lyman, a key strategic objective, significantly weakening the case for a Russian capture of Lyman.
Russian milbloggers say Brusyn train station near Lyman captured
December 31 jumps to 78%9%
Milbloggers claimed Russian forces seized the Brusyn Train Station southwest of Lyman. The claim, echoed by ISW’s map notes, pushed the “December 31” price to a new high of 78 % on 2026‑06‑28, reinforcing belief that the Lyman station was under Russian control.
Russian forces intensify attacks near Lyman but face fuel supply issues
Russian forces increased attacks north of Lyman but began suffering fuel supply problems due to Ukrainian drone strikes on logistics, limiting their offensive capabilities and contributing to stalled advances.
ISW confirms Russian seizure of Brusyn train station near Lyman
December 31 jumps to 70%13%
ISW’s June 21 assessment reported Russian forces seized the Brusyn train station and advanced toward Lyman. The market surged sharply, climbing from 57 % to 70 % as the probability of a capture rose dramatically.
Russian claims of capturing Brusyn Train Station near Lyman disputed by Ukrainian strikes
December 31 rises to 59%3%
Russian sources claimed control of Brusyn Train Station southwest of Lyman, but Ukrainian forces continued striking Russian positions nearby, indicating contested control and ongoing fighting rather than consolidated Russian capture.
Russian Milbloggers Claim Seizure of Brusyn Train Station Near Lyman
September 30 surges to 70%21%
Russian sources claimed advances deeper into Lyman and the seizure of the Brusyn Train Station southwest of Lyman, driving up the perceived likelihood of capture.
Russian forces claimed to have seized Brusyn Train Station southwest of Lyman
December 31 rises to 63%4%
Russian milbloggers claimed seizure of Brusyn Train Station near Lyman and advances in nearby areas, but ISW assessments indicated ongoing infiltration and contested control rather than full capture of Lyman railroad station, causing mixed market reactions.
Russian sources claim seizure of Brusyn Train Station southwest of Lyman amid infiltration missions
December 31 jumps to 66%11%
Russian milbloggers claimed control of Brusyn Train Station near Lyman and advances in surrounding areas, but geolocated footage showed mixed control with ongoing Ukrainian strikes on Russian positions. This led to market uncertainty and price volatility.
Russian forces intensify assaults in Lyman direction exploiting terrain
December 31 rises to 64%3%
Russian forces increased assaults in the Lyman area using terrain for concealment, attempting to find weak spots in Ukrainian defenses, which raised market expectations of possible Russian gains.
Russian claims of advances near Lyman contradicted by Ukrainian strikes and interspersed positions
December 31 dips to 45%4%
Russian sources claimed advances near Lyman and seizure of nearby train stations, but Ukrainian strikes and geolocated footage showed contested and interspersed positions, undermining Russian claims and market confidence in capture.
Russian forces claim to seize Brusyn Train Station southwest of Lyman amid infiltration missions
December 31 jumps to 70%9%
Russian milbloggers claimed control of Brusyn Train Station near Lyman, but ISW assessments and geolocated footage showed ongoing Ukrainian strikes and contested positions, indicating no confirmed capture of Lyman's main railroad station.
Russian forces claim advances near Lyman but Ukrainian control persists
December 31 jumps to 61%5%
Russian milbloggers claimed advances including seizure of Brusyn Train Station southwest of Lyman, but geolocated footage and Ukrainian strikes showed contested control with Ukrainian forces still operating in and around Lyman, preventing Russian consolidation of the railroad station.
Russian forces claim seizure of Brusyn Train Station southwest of Lyman
December 31 jumps to 52%8%
Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces seized the Brusyn Train Station southwest of Lyman and advanced in nearby areas, signaling attempts to encircle and capture Lyman. However, ISW assessments suggest these advances were limited and contested, reflecting ongoing fighting and infiltration rather than full control.
Russian forces conduct infiltration missions near Lyman but fail to consolidate control
December 31 jumps to 56%9%
On June 21, 2026, ISW reported Russian infiltration missions near Lyman, including claims of seizing nearby train stations, but independent assessments showed no consolidated control over Lyman or its railroad station, maintaining market skepticism.
Russian milbloggers claim capture of Brusyn train station near Lyman
December 31 jumps to 78%8%
ISW noted Russian milbloggers claiming seizure of the Brusyn Train Station southwest of Lyman, but also reported Ukrainian strikes countering those claims. The mixed signals caused a brief rally (price rise to 78 % on June 28) as traders weighed possible capture of the rail hub.
Russian sources claim advances near Lyman but ISW confirms ongoing Ukrainian resistance
December 31 drops to 49%5%
Russian milbloggers claimed advances including seizure of nearby train stations, but ISW geolocated footage showed Ukrainian strikes and interspersed positions, indicating no consolidated Russian control over Lyman railroad station.
ISW reports Russian infiltration mission raising flag in central Lyman
December 31 jumps to 63%14%
Geolocated footage showed a Russian servicemember raising a Russian flag in central Lyman during an infiltration mission, indicating partial Russian presence but not full control, causing slight market uptick.
ISW maps flag‑raising in central Lyman as Russian infiltration
December 31 jumps to 54%6%
ISW’s daily assessment posted a geolocated video of a Russian soldier raising a flag in central Lyman, interpreted as a successful infiltration. Traders saw this as possible control of the railway hub, pushing the “December 31” probability from 48 % to 54 % (price before = 48, price after = 54).
Russian Infiltration Mission Reaches Central Lyman as Assaults Intensify
December 31 jumps to 64%13%
Geolocated footage confirmed a Russian servicemember raising a flag in central Lyman during an infiltration mission, signaling increased Russian pressure on the city.
Russian forces conduct infiltration missions in central Lyman but fail to consolidate control
On June 20, ISW reported Russian forces infiltrating central Lyman and raising a Russian flag in what was assessed as an infiltration mission, while Ukrainian forces maintained positions in eastern Lyman. This indicated ongoing contested control rather than Russian capture, contributing to market uncertainty.
Russian Soldier Raises Flag in Central Lyman During Infiltration Mission
December 31 jumps to 66%5%
A Russian servicemember raised a flag in central Lyman during an infiltration mission, though ISW assessed that Ukrainian forces maintained their positions in the eastern part of the city.
Geolocated footage shows Russian forces shelling eastern Lyman and raising flag in central Lyman
December 31 rises to 51%3%
Footage indicated ongoing Russian infiltration missions and shelling in Lyman, but no confirmed consolidation of control over the railroad station. This maintained uncertainty in the market about Russia's ability to capture Lyman by the deadlines.
ISW reports Russian infiltration and flag raising in central Lyman
December 31 jumps to 57%6%
Geolocated footage showed Russian forces raising a flag in central Lyman during infiltration missions, indicating partial Russian presence but not full control of the railroad station. Ukrainian forces continued to hold eastern Lyman, sustaining the market's mixed outlook with prices around 50-70%.
Russian forces intensify assaults and infiltration near Lyman amid contested control
December 31 jumps to 65%12%
Russian forces intensified assaults and infiltration missions near Lyman in late June, with some claims of advances but Ukrainian forces maintaining positions, reflecting ongoing contested control and market uncertainty.
Russian forces raise flag in central Lyman during infiltration mission, no confirmed capture
December 31 rises to 53%1%
Geolocated footage on June 19-20 showed Russian forces shelling eastern Lyman and raising a Russian flag in central Lyman, assessed by ISW as infiltration rather than consolidated control. Ukrainian forces maintained positions, limiting Russian gains.
Russian servicemember raises flag in central Lyman amid ongoing infiltration attempts
December 31 rises to 51%1%
Footage showed a Russian servicemember raising a Russian flag in central Lyman, but ISW assessed this as part of infiltration missions rather than consolidated control, with Ukrainian forces still active in the area.
Russian forces conduct infiltration mission raising flag in central Lyman
December 31 surges to 68%18%
Geolocated footage showed a Russian servicemember raising a Russian flag in central Lyman during an infiltration mission, but Ukrainian forces continued to operate in eastern Lyman and surrounding areas, indicating contested control of the railroad station.
Ukrainian drones hit Russian positions in eastern Lyman
December 31 plunges to 46%24%
Geolocated footage released on June 20 showed Ukrainian drones striking Russian positions in eastern Lyman, contradicting Russian claims of control. The visual evidence heightened doubts about a Russian capture, contributing to the slide from 70 % (June 24) to 46 % (June 3).
Ukrainian forces maintain positions in eastern Lyman amid Russian infiltration attempts
December 31 dips to 49%3%
Despite Russian infiltration efforts in central Lyman, Ukrainian forces held eastern parts of the city, preventing Russian consolidation and control over the area including the railroad station.
ISW reports Russian forces raising flag in central Lyman during infiltration mission
December 31 jumps to 52%6%
On June 20, 2026, ISW published geolocated footage showing a Russian servicemember raising a Russian flag in central Lyman, assessed as part of a Russian infiltration mission rather than full control. This indicated ongoing contested fighting and partial Russian presence, influencing market optimism about eventual capture.
ISW reports Russian infiltration in central Lyman but Ukrainian forces hold eastern parts
ISW analysis showed Russian forces infiltrating central Lyman, but Ukrainian troops maintained control in the east, indicating contested control and no full capture of the railroad station.
Geolocated footage shows Russian infiltration missions and limited advances near Lyman
December 31 dips to 53%1%
Footage published on June 19-20 showed Russian forces shelling positions in eastern Lyman and raising a Russian flag in central Lyman during infiltration missions, indicating limited Russian presence but not full control of the city or railroad station.
Russian forces intensify assaults near Lyman but Ukrainian forces repel advances
December 31 dips to 47%3%
Russian forces increased assaults in the Lyman direction exploiting terrain for concealment, but Ukrainian forces maintained positions and repelled infiltration attempts, preventing Russian consolidation of the area including the railroad station.
ISW reports Russian infiltration missions in Lyman with limited control
December 31 dips to 49%3%
ISW reported on June 20 that Russian forces conducted infiltration missions in Lyman, including a Russian servicemember raising a flag in central Lyman, but these were assessed as infiltration rather than consolidation, with Ukrainian forces still holding key positions including the railroad station area.
Russian flag raised in central Lyman, ISW says
December 31 surges to 63%18%
ISW reported a Russian flag being raised in central Lyman during an infiltration mission, suggesting a foothold at the rail station. The news spurred a sharp swing upward, with the “December 31” price jumping from 45 % to 63 % on 2026‑06‑19‑20.
ISW reports Russian infiltration missions in central Lyman amid Ukrainian resistance
December 31 rises to 56%2%
ISW analysis on June 19-20 showed Russian forces infiltrating central Lyman using forest cover, while Ukrainian forces held eastern parts, indicating contested control but no full capture. This tempered market optimism about imminent Russian control.
Russian forces claim infiltration and raise flag in central Lyman
December 31 jumps to 69%13%
Russian sources claimed infiltration into central Lyman and raising a flag, but ISW assessed these as infiltration missions without consolidated control, leading to market price spikes followed by corrections.
Russian forces intensify attacks near Lyman but face supply issues
December 31 jumps to 70%11%
Russian forces increased attacks north of Lyman but began suffering fuel supply problems due to Ukrainian drone strikes on logistics, limiting their operational effectiveness and advance potential.
Russian forces shell Ukrainian positions in eastern Lyman amid infiltration missions
Geolocated footage showed Russian shelling of Ukrainian positions in eastern Lyman and a Russian servicemember raising a flag in central Lyman during an infiltration mission, but no consolidated control was established, maintaining contested status.
Russian infiltration missions near Lyman continue amid contested control
December 31 rises to 54%4%
Geolocated footage showed Russian forces raising flags in central Lyman as part of infiltration missions, but Ukrainian forces repelled infiltrators and maintained control. This led to mixed market reactions with some price recovery.
Geolocated footage shows Russian shelling but no consolidation in Lyman
December 31 jumps to 59%10%
Footage revealed Russian shelling in eastern Lyman and infiltration missions in central Lyman, but Ukrainian forces maintained positions, indicating Russia had not captured the city or its railroad station. This undermined market optimism about a Russian capture.
Russian forces conduct infiltration missions in central Lyman but fail to consolidate control
December 31 drops to 54%10%
ISW reported Russian infiltration in central Lyman and nearby areas but noted no consolidated control due to Ukrainian drone strikes and counterattacks, limiting Russian territorial gains and sustaining market uncertainty.
RT says Russian forces fighting near Lyman railway station
December 31 surges to 69%22%
RT reported that by mid‑June Russian troops were already fighting inside Lyman’s city centre and near the railway station. The vivid media coverage coincided with the market’s short‑term rise from 47 % to 69 % (June 23), reinforcing the “December 31” outlook.
Russian infiltration missions and shelling in Lyman area observed
December 31 jumps to 59%10%
Geolocated footage showed Russian forces shelling Ukrainian positions and conducting infiltration missions in central Lyman, but Ukrainian forces repelled infiltrators and maintained control of key settlements, indicating contested control rather than full Russian capture.
ISW reports Russian infiltration and increased assaults in Lyman's center and east
December 31 drops to 75%5%
ISW analysis showed Russian forces infiltrating central Lyman and increasing assaults exploiting forest cover, suggesting tactical gains but not full control, causing mixed market reactions.
Russian infiltration missions continue in Lyman; Ukrainian forces repel infiltrators
December 31 drops to 54%11%
In June 2026, Russian forces conducted infiltration missions in Lyman, including raising a Russian flag in central Lyman, but Ukrainian forces repelled infiltrators and maintained positions in eastern Lyman and nearby settlements. This ongoing contest kept the market uncertain.
Russian forces infiltrate central Lyman but fail to consolidate positions
December 31 surges to 59%15%
Geolocated footage showed Russian forces raising a flag in central Lyman during an infiltration mission, but Ukrainian drone strikes prevented consolidation, maintaining uncertainty about Russian control of the Lyman railroad station.
Russian Servicemember Raises Flag in Central Lyman During Infiltration Mission
December 31 surges to 69%16%
Geolocated footage showed a Russian soldier raising a flag in central Lyman, sparking fears of a rapid Russian breakthrough and causing a sharp spike in the market's capture probability.
Russian forces launch renewed offensive near Lyman railroad station
December 31 jumps to 61%9%
A renewed Russian offensive near Lyman raised market optimism temporarily, pushing prices up from 52% to 61% for the December 31 outcome, though no decisive capture was reported.
Geolocated footage shows Russian servicemember raising flag in central Lyman
December 31 surges to 64%16%
On June 19, 2026, footage showed a Russian servicemember raising a flag in central Lyman, indicating at least partial Russian infiltration or presence, which caused a market price increase for the December 31 outcome.
Russian infiltration mission raises flag in central Lyman amid ongoing fighting
December 31 surges to 70%18%
Geolocated footage showed a Russian servicemember raising a Russian flag in central Lyman during an infiltration mission, signaling partial Russian presence but not full control, contributing to rising market confidence.
ISW reports Russian infiltration in central Lyman but Ukrainian forces hold east
December 31 jumps to 54%6%
ISW analysis showed Russian forces infiltrating central Lyman using forest cover, but Ukrainian forces maintained positions in the east, indicating ongoing contested control without Russian capture of key infrastructure like the railroad station.
ISW confirms Russian infiltration and flag-raising in central Lyman
December 31 jumps to 65%14%
ISW reported Russian forces conducting infiltration missions in central Lyman and published geolocated footage of a Russian soldier raising a flag, signaling tactical presence but not full control. This nuanced development increased market confidence in a possible Russian capture by year-end but underscored ongoing Ukrainian resistance.
Russian forces raise flag in central Lyman amid infiltration attempts
December 31 jumps to 61%5%
Russian servicemember was seen raising a flag in central Lyman in what ISW assessed as an infiltration mission, but Ukrainian forces continued to repel Russian infiltrators, indicating contested control rather than full capture.
Geolocated footage shows Russian forces shelling Ukrainian positions in eastern Lyman
December 31 rises to 57%3%
Footage contradicted Russian claims of advances, showing ongoing fierce fighting and Russian infiltration missions rather than consolidated control, signaling a stalemate and affecting market optimism.
Russian forces intensify assaults in Lyman direction amid Ukrainian drone strikes
December 31 surges to 61%16%
Russian forces increased the number of assaults in the Lyman direction, exploiting foliage for concealment, but Ukrainian drone strikes and artillery impeded their advances. The ongoing contested situation contributed to market uncertainty and price volatility.
Clashes reported near Lyman amid ongoing Ukrainian resistance
June 30 dips to 7%2%
Reports from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine detailed ongoing clashes near Lyman, reinforcing perceptions of sustained Ukrainian control and resistance, which contributed to low market confidence in Russian capture by June 30.
Renewed Russian attacks near Lyman raise capture prospects
December 31 jumps to 54%6%
Renewed Russian military activity near Lyman in mid-June caused a modest price increase from 48% to 54%, indicating a slight rise in market confidence that Russia might capture the railroad station by December 31, 2025.
Fighting intensifies near Lyman railway station as Russian forces advance
December 31 surges to 70%22%
Active fighting occurred in the center of Lyman near the railway station and industrial zones, with Russian forces making infiltration attempts but Ukrainian forces maintaining control. This led to market uncertainty and price fluctuations, with a trough at 48% and subsequent recovery to 70%.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims advances in Lyman, seizing buildings and cutting Ukrainian supply lines
December 31 rises to 54%4%
Russian MoD claimed control over parts of Lyman and destruction of Ukrainian ground lines of communication, but these claims were likely exaggerated as independent sources showed ongoing Ukrainian control and infiltration fighting. This caused some market fluctuations but no sustained price increase.
Active fighting continues in Lyman with Russian forces nearly clearing urban areas
December 31 jumps to 63%12%
By mid-June, Russian 'West' group forces had almost completely cleared urban areas of Lyman, with fighting ongoing near the railway station and industrial zones. This intensified fighting increased market confidence in a potential Russian capture by December 31, reflected in price rises to 63% Yes.
Russian forces reach Novatorskaya train station and bus station in Lyman, splitting Ukrainian forces
December 31 jumps to 80%5%
Russian troops reached key transport hubs in Lyman and split Ukrainian forces into three sectors, indicating significant Russian operational progress and increasing market confidence in capture.
Russian forces split Ukrainian group in Krasny Liman and reach Novatorskaya train station
December 31 dips to 50%3%
Russian forces advanced in Krasny Liman, reaching the Novatorskaya train station and bus station, pushing Ukrainian forces beyond the railroad, signaling increased Russian pressure near Lyman but not full capture.
Russian forces split Ukrainian defenses and advance near Lyman city center
December 31 jumps to 65%11%
On June 16, Russian military reportedly split Ukrainian forces in Krasny Liman and reached key transport points in Lyman, including the bus station, indicating localized advances but not full control of the railroad station. This news caused a temporary increase in market confidence.
Russian forces continue offensive near Lyman amid Ukrainian counterattacks
June 30 drops to 6%5%
Russian forces maintained offensive operations in the Slovyansk-Lyman direction, prioritizing advances toward Lyman with small infantry groups, but Ukrainian counterattacks limited progress. Market prices for capture by June 30 dropped sharply, reflecting reduced confidence in near-term Russian success.
Russian military splits Ukrainian forces in Krasny Lyman and reaches Novatorskaya train station
December 31 rises to 52%2%
Russian forces reportedly split Ukrainian forces in Krasny Lyman into three sectors and reached the Novatorskaya train station and bus station in Lyman, indicating intensified Russian efforts to control key infrastructure in the city. This news increased market confidence in a potential Russian capture of Lyman by the end of the year.
Russian Forces Conduct Infiltration Missions in Central Lyman
December 31 surges to 68%18%
Geolocated footage confirmed Ukrainian forces striking a Russian position in central Lyman following a Russian infiltration mission, while Russian milbloggers claimed advances.
Russian forces claim advances near Lyman, reaching Novatorskaya train station and bus station
December 31 rises to 52%2%
On June 16, reports emerged that Russian forces had reached key transport points in Lyman, including the Novatorskaya train station and bus station, suggesting progress in their offensive. This raised market expectations for a Russian capture of Lyman, reflected in price movements.
Russian forces fail to capture Lyman; Ukrainian control remains intact
December 31 drops to 45%7%
By mid-June, assessments confirmed that Russian forces had not captured Lyman or its railroad station, with Ukrainian forces maintaining control. Russian attempts to encircle and seize the city had stalled, and the focus had moved elsewhere, leading to further market price decline for the capture of Lyman by year-end.
Russian forces reach Novatorskaya train station in Lyman amid ongoing fighting
December 31 jumps to 65%13%
Russian forces reportedly reached the Novatorskaya train station and bus station in Lyman, with Ukrainian forces retreating beyond the railroad. This indicated partial Russian control of key infrastructure, raising market confidence in eventual Russian capture by year-end.
Sustained combat near Lyman with no confirmed Russian capture
December 31 surges to 70%17%
Despite over 200 combat engagements and multiple Russian attacks near Lyman, Ukrainian forces maintained effective resistance. The lack of confirmed Russian control over Lyman railroad station contributed to market price uncertainty and moderate increases.
Ukrainian forces hold positions and inflict losses on Russian troops near Lyman
Ukrainian Defense Forces maintained their positions near Lyman and inflicted significant losses on Russian forces, continuing to prevent Russian capture of the area. This sustained defense kept market confidence low for a June 30 capture.
Ukrainian counterattacks undermine Russian efforts in Lyman direction
December 31 drops to 48%8%
Ukrainian counterattacks in the Borova direction reportedly undermined Russian forces' efforts near Lyman, creating a critical situation for Russian troops and further diminishing prospects of Russian control over Lyman railroad station by year-end.
Ukrainian forces squeeze Russian salient north of Lyman
December 31 surges to 64%16%
Ukrainian counterattacks have effectively squeezed the Russian salient north of Lyman, blocking resupply routes and making it harder for Russia to maintain or expand control in the area.
Analyst notes Ukraine’s advance squeezes Russian salient around Lyman
December 31 plunges to 40%15%
A June 12 post by Andrew Perpetua highlighted Ukrainian advances north of Lyman and suggested Russia’s salient was being squeezed. The analysis was cited by traders as evidence that a Russian capture was becoming increasingly improbable, aiding the drop to the market low of 40 % on May 12.
Ukraine holds Lyman despite Russian attempts to surround city
December 31 rises to 53%3%
Reports indicated that Ukraine had advanced north of Lyman and was holding the city against Russian attempts to encircle it. Russian claims of territorial gains were contradicted by verified facts showing Ukrainian control remained strong, dampening market confidence in imminent Russian capture.
Ukraine counterattacks north of Lyman collapse Russian salient
December 31 drops to 45%5%
Ukrainian forces launched counterattacks north of Lyman, disrupting Russian attempts to surround the city and threatening Russian supply lines. These counterattacks prevented Russian forces from consolidating control over Lyman, negatively impacting market expectations for Russian capture.
Ukrainian defenders repel Russian attacks near Lyman, maintain control
June 30 dips to 4%3%
Ukrainian forces successfully repelled Russian attacks near Lyman and continued to hold defensive lines, preventing Russian advances. This contributed to a further decline in market confidence for Russian capture by June 30.
Ukrainian counterattacks protect Lyman, squeezing Russian salient
December 31 dips to 59%4%
Ukrainian forces launched counterattacks north of Lyman, preventing Russian forces from surrounding the city and maintaining control of key routes. This defensive success dampened market optimism about a Russian capture, contributing to price declines.
Ukrainian counterattacks protect Lyman, preventing Russian capture
Ukrainian counterattacks around Lyman have successfully held the city, blocking Russian advances and maintaining control over the strategic railroad station, as confirmed by multiple sources and frontline observations.
Reports indicate Ukrainian advances north of Lyman contest Russian control
December 31 jumps to 55%6%
Multiple sources reported that Ukrainian forces advanced further north of Lyman than official maps show, contesting areas previously held by Russia, reinforcing market skepticism about Russian capture by mid-2026.
Ukrainian counterattacks squeeze Russian salient north of Lyman
December 31 surges to 64%15%
Ukrainian forces counterattacked north of Lyman, pushing back Russian troops and threatening their supply lines, complicating Russian efforts to surround and capture Lyman, dampening market optimism for a quick Russian capture.
Russian forces continue attacks near Lyman amid Ukrainian defensive success
December 31 jumps to 60%7%
Russian forces launched multiple attacks near Lyman but Ukrainian defenders maintained positions and inflicted significant losses, sustaining a contested frontline and market uncertainty about Russian capture.
Ukraine holds Lyman despite Russian attempts to surround it
June 30 drops to 1%6%
Despite Russian efforts to encircle Lyman, Ukrainian forces maintained control and reportedly advanced further north of Lyman, leading to a decline in market confidence for Russian capture by June 30.
Ukraine holds Lyman as Russian salient gets squeezed
September 30 drops to 37%12%
Ukraine's counterattacks north of Lyman prevented Russian encirclement and maintained control of the city, contradicting Russian claims of imminent capture. This reinforced market doubts about Russian success by September 30.
Ukraine advances north of Lyman, squeezing Russian salient
December 31 drops to 45%9%
By mid-June, Ukrainian forces advanced further north of Lyman than previously mapped, contesting areas once held by Russia and blocking direct Russian routes. This Ukrainian pressure further undermined Russian control prospects over Lyman and its railroad station.
Ukrainian Counter-Offensive Expands Control East of Lyman
December 31 dips to 52%4%
Reports highlighted an ongoing Ukrainian counterattack expanding control to the east of Lyman, supported by superior drone ratios that heavily penalized Russian vehicle movements.
Rail station operator killed in Ukrainian rail infrastructure strike near Lyman
December 31 dips to 53%3%
A Ukrainian rail station operator was killed during a strike on rail infrastructure, highlighting ongoing conflict and instability around Lyman's railway facilities, contributing to market uncertainty.
Ukrainian counterattacks and strikes maintain pressure on Russian forces near Lyman
December 31 dips to 53%3%
By June 12, Ukrainian forces continued counterattacks and strikes on Russian positions and logistics near Lyman, further impeding Russian advances and contributing to market skepticism about Russian capture of the station by year-end.
Ukrainian Counterattacks and Defensive Lines Hold Lyman Salient
June 30 dips to 7%2%
Reports confirm that Ukrainian counterattacks and robust defense lines have successfully squeezed the Russian salient, preventing Russian forces from capturing Lyman and delaying their broader strategic goals.
Reports confirm Ukrainian advances north of Lyman, Russian forces contested and losing ground
Multiple sources including ISW and independent analysts report Ukrainian forces advancing north of Lyman beyond previously assessed lines, with Russian forces contested and losing ground. This further indicates Russia did not capture the Lyman railroad station by mid-2026.
Ukraine advances north of Lyman, squeezing Russian salient
June 30 dips to 4%4%
Reports indicated Ukrainian advances north of Lyman, contesting previously Russian-held areas and suggesting Russian forces were under pressure, reducing likelihood of Russian capture by June 30.
Ukraine repels Russian attempts to surround Lyman, Russian salient gets squeezed
December 31 drops to 45%5%
Ukrainian counterattacks protected Lyman, preventing Russian forces from encircling the city. Reports indicated that Russian forces were squeezed in their salient, further reducing the likelihood of a Russian capture of the Lyman train station, reflected in market price declines.
Ukraine holds Lyman against Russian encirclement attempts
June 30 dips to 8%2%
Reports indicated Ukrainian forces successfully resisted Russian attempts to encircle and capture Lyman, maintaining control of the railroad station and surrounding areas, reinforcing market expectations of no Russian capture by mid-2026.
Ukrainian counteroffensive expands control east of Lyman, holding rail station
December 31 jumps to 61%9%
By mid-June, Ukrainian forces were expanding control east of Lyman, maintaining control of the rail station, which remained a focus of fighting. This counteroffensive dampened market expectations of imminent Russian capture.
Ukrainian counterattacks continue to hold Lyman railroad station
December 31 jumps to 56%8%
Reports from June 12 indicated ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks east of Lyman, with ISW confirming Ukrainian control of the railroad station, limiting Russian progress and causing market price fluctuations.
Russian forces reinforce positions near Lyman amid Ukrainian counterattacks
December 31 jumps to 65%13%
Reports indicated Russian command redeployed units near Lyman to reinforce after heavy losses, while Ukrainian forces continued counterattacks northwest and northeast of Lyman. This suggested ongoing contested fighting without decisive Russian capture, influencing market prices downward.
ISW reports Russian forces lack capability for major push on Slovyansk and Lyman
December 31 dips to 45%3%
ISW analysis indicated Russian Western Grouping of Forces lacked sufficient combat power to advance significantly on Lyman while defending other fronts, suggesting limited prospects for capturing the station soon. This assessment contributed to further market price declines.
Reports indicate Ukraine holds more positions in Lyman than previously assessed
December 31 drops to 42%8%
A source reporting on the Russian Western Grouping of Forces indicated Ukrainian control of roads and positions around Lyman, with geolocated footage showing Russian strikes on Ukrainian positions. This suggested Ukrainian resilience and limited Russian gains, contributing to a price drop to 42% Yes for December 31.
Russian Spring-Summer offensive launched around Lyman with limited advances
December 31 dips to 46%4%
Russian forces launched mechanized assaults around Lyman but failed to make significant advances, shifting focus to other areas. Ukrainian counterattacks northwest of Lyman were reported, maintaining Ukrainian control and causing market prices to dip.
Russian mechanized assaults around Lyman fail to yield significant gains
December 31 jumps to 64%13%
Russian forces continued mechanized assaults around Lyman but failed to make meaningful advances. Ukrainian counterattacks and infiltration missions further impeded Russian progress, maintaining Ukrainian control over Lyman and its strategic points including the railroad station.
Russian forces conduct multiple attacks near Lyman but face strong Ukrainian resistance
December 31 jumps to 54%8%
In early June, Russian forces launched numerous attacks near Lyman, including 14 attempts to break through Ukrainian defenses. Ukrainian forces repelled many assaults, maintaining control of the area, which influenced market prices to remain uncertain but rising towards capture by year-end.
ISW: Russia suffers net loss of territory around Lyman in early June
June 30 drops to 11%11%
ISW’s June 6 assessment described a net loss of Russian‑held ground in the Lyman sector, pushing the “June 30” probability higher as the market saw a likely continuation of the status quo.
ISW reports Russian offensive shifts focus from Lyman to Kostyantynivka after stalled gains
December 31 dips to 47%3%
In June 2026, ISW noted that Russian forces failed to make significant advances around Lyman and shifted their main offensive effort to Kostyantynivka, reducing the likelihood of capturing Lyman's railroad station by year-end.
Russian offensive shifts focus from Lyman to Kostyantynivka after stalled advances
December 31 drops to 47%7%
By June 10, reports indicated that Russian forces launched mechanized assaults around Lyman but failed to make significant advances and shifted their main effort to capturing Kostyantynivka. This strategic shift reduced the likelihood of Russian capture of Lyman by the end of 2025, contributing to a market price decline.
Russian assaults around Lyman show limited success amid Ukrainian counterattacks
December 31 jumps to 52%6%
Despite renewed Russian mechanized assaults, Ukrainian forces maintained control over key areas near Lyman, keeping market confidence moderate and prices volatile.
Russia shifts main offensive effort from Lyman to Kostyantynivka after stalled Slovyansk push
December 31 drops to 44%8%
Russian forces launched mechanized assaults around Lyman but failed to make significant gains and shifted their main effort to Kostyantynivka, indicating stalled progress near Lyman and reducing near-term capture likelihood of the Lyman railroad station.
Russian forces break through western defenses in Lyman, city falling within days
December 31 rises to 54%4%
Reports indicated Russian forces breaking through western defenses in Lyman, suggesting imminent capture and causing a temporary increase in market confidence for Russian capture by December 31.
Map tweet shows Ukraine advancing north of Lyman
December 31 drops to 46%6%
A tweet with a map screenshot suggested Ukrainian forces had pushed north of Lyman, erasing earlier Russian “control” claims. Traders reacted negatively, pushing the price down to 46 %.
Russian forces launch offensive around Lyman but fail to make significant advances
December 31 plunges to 61%21%
Russian military launched mechanized assaults around Lyman aiming to advance on Slovyansk but failed to achieve significant territorial gains, indicating limited progress in capturing Lyman. This dampened market confidence in a near-term Russian capture of Lyman.
Russian offensive stalls near Lyman, shifts focus to Kostyantynivka
Russian forces launched mechanized assaults around Lyman but failed to make significant advances, shifting their main effort to Kostyantynivka, reflecting operational difficulties and causing mixed market reactions.
Russian forces launch spring-summer offensive with mechanized assaults around Lyman
December 31 rises to 65%3%
Russian military command prioritized advancing on Slovyansk from the northeast via Lyman but failed to make significant advances, shifting focus to Kostyantynivka. This indicated limited Russian progress near Lyman, impacting market confidence for capture by year-end.
ISW reports Russian Spring-Summer offensive launched with mechanized assaults around Lyman
December 31 jumps to 54%6%
Russian forces initiated their 2026 offensive with mechanized attacks near Lyman aiming to advance on Slovyansk, but failed to make significant gains, leading to a shift in focus to Kostyantynivka. This indicated initial Russian intent but limited success, impacting market confidence.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions in Lyman after infiltration missions
December 31 jumps to 56%9%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian strikes on Russian-occupied buildings in Lyman, indicating ongoing contested control and active Ukrainian resistance, which tempered expectations of Russian capture.
Russian spring-summer offensive around Lyman stalls with no significant advances
December 31 drops to 49%5%
Russian mechanized assaults around Lyman failed to achieve significant advances, with Ukrainian forces counterattacking and holding positions, leading to a shift in Russian focus to Kostyantynivka and reducing expectations of capturing Lyman soon.
Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold Lyman line amid Russian attacks
June 30 plunges to 7%15%
Despite heavy Russian attacks and airstrikes near Lyman, Ukrainian forces maintained their defensive positions, inflicting significant losses on Russian troops. This reinforced market sentiment against a near-term Russian capture.
ISW says Russian offensive around Lyman stalls
December 31 drops to 45%8%
The ISW June 10 report described a “Spring‑Summer 2026 offensive” around Lyman that stalled, noting that Russian forces failed to make significant advances. Analysts interpreted this as a setback for a capture, prompting the market’s sharp decline from 53 % (June 12) to 45 % (June 15).
Russian Spring-Summer offensive begins with assaults around Lyman but fails to make significant advances
December 31 jumps to 54%6%
Russian forces launched mechanized assaults around Lyman aiming to advance on Slovyansk but failed to make significant progress, shifting focus to Kostyantynivka. Ukrainian forces continued to operate in Lyman, preventing Russian control consolidation, which tempered market optimism for a quick Russian capture.
Russian forces fail to make significant advances near Lyman, shift focus to Kostyantynivka
June 30 plunges to 5%17%
Russian offensives around Lyman stalled with no major territorial gains, and command shifted priority to Kostyantynivka. Ukrainian counterattacks and infiltration missions disrupted Russian momentum, causing market prices for June 30 outcome to drop sharply.
Russian forces fail to capture Lyman despite infiltration attempts
December 31 drops to 45%9%
ISW reported that Russian forces continued infiltration missions and mechanized assaults around Lyman but did not achieve significant territorial gains. Ukrainian forces repelled these attempts, maintaining control of the city and its key infrastructure, including the train station, which dampened market optimism for a Russian capture.
ISW says Russian Lyman offensive stalls as Ukraine counter‑attacks
December 31 plunges to 48%17%
ISW’s June 10 assessment noted a Russian spring‑summer offensive around Lyman that stalled, but also cited Ukrainian counter‑attacks in neighbouring Borova. The mixed picture caused the market to dip sharply, moving the “December 31” probability from 65 % to 48 % by 2026‑06‑13.
Ukrainian forces counterattack near Lyman, striking Russian positions
December 31 drops to 49%5%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian strikes on Russian-occupied buildings northwest of Lyman, indicating active Ukrainian resistance and limiting Russian control, which contributed to market skepticism about a full Russian capture by mid-2026.
Evidence suggests Ukrainian advances north of Lyman exceed maps
Reports indicated Ukrainian forces advanced further north of Lyman than current maps show, contesting Russian control and lowering market confidence in Russian capture by mid-June.
Ukrainian counterattacks northwest of Lyman disrupt Russian infiltration
December 31 dips to 51%3%
Ukrainian forces conducted counterattacks northwest of Lyman, striking Russian positions and preventing Russian forces from consolidating control, lowering market confidence in Russian capture.
ISW reports Russian shift of main offensive from Slovyansk to Kostyantynivka after stalled advances
December 31 rises to 52%2%
ISW noted that Russian forces launched mechanized assaults around Lyman intending to advance on Slovyansk but failed to make significant gains, leading to a shift in focus to Kostyantynivka. This indicated stalled progress near Lyman and reduced likelihood of imminent capture of key positions like the Lyman railroad station.
Russian forces launch mechanized assaults around Lyman but fail to make significant advances
December 31 drops to 42%14%
Russian forces launched their Spring-Summer 2026 offensive with mechanized assaults around Lyman but failed to make confirmed advances or capture the railroad station, indicating stalled progress and maintaining market skepticism.
Russian Spring-Summer Offensive Launches with Mechanized Assaults Around Lyman
December 31 dips to 47%4%
Russian forces initiated their 2026 offensive with mechanized attacks near Lyman, aiming to advance on Slovyansk from the northeast. However, they failed to make significant gains in the Lyman area, shifting focus to Kostyantynivka instead. This limited progress contributed to initial market uncertainty and a slight price decline for the December 31 outcome.
Russian offensive around Lyman fails to make significant gains; shift to Kostyantynivka offensive
December 31 dips to 48%1%
Russian forces failed to advance significantly around Lyman during their Spring-Summer 2026 offensive and shifted their main effort to Kostyantynivka. Ukrainian counterattacks and infiltration missions continued to contest Russian positions near Lyman, preventing capture of the railroad station.
Reports Indicate Ukrainian Advances North of Lyman Exceed Map Depictions
December 31 dips to 48%3%
Frontline analysts reported that Ukrainian forces had advanced further north of Lyman than depicted on public maps, capturing towns and squeezing the Russian salient.
Evidence shows Ukrainian advances north of Lyman, Russian forces squeezed
June 30 drops to 6%5%
Multiple sources including ISW and independent analysts reported Ukrainian advances beyond official maps north of Lyman, with Russian forces under pressure and unable to secure the railroad station. This contributed to the June 30 outcome price dropping to 6%.
ISW reports Russian offensive around Lyman stalls with no significant gains
December 31 drops to 50%11%
ISW assessment noted Russian forces failed to make significant advances around Lyman despite mechanized assaults, shifting focus to Kostyantynivka, causing market price to decline from 61% to 50% Yes.
Russian Spring-Summer 2026 offensive around Lyman stalls with no significant advances
December 31 dips to 48%1%
Russian mechanized assaults launched in early June around Lyman failed to achieve significant territorial gains, with Ukrainian counterattacks maintaining control. The stalled offensive diminished prospects for Russian capture of the Lyman railroad station by the end of 2025.
Russian offensive around Lyman stalls; focus shifts to Kostyantynivka after failed advances
December 31 dips to 45%2%
Russian forces launched mechanized assaults around Lyman but failed to make significant advances, leading to a shift in priority to Kostyantynivka. Ukrainian counterattacks and resistance around Lyman remain strong, preventing Russian capture of the station.
ISW reports Russia shifts main offensive to Kostyantynivka after stalled Slovyansk push
ISW noted Russian forces launched mechanized assaults around Lyman but failed to make significant gains and shifted focus to Kostyantynivka, indicating stalled advances near Lyman and reducing confidence in imminent capture.
Ukrainian Counterattacks North of Lyman Squeeze Russian Salient
December 31 drops to 47%7%
Reports emerged that Ukrainian forces advanced north of Lyman, contesting areas previously held by Russia and squeezing the Russian salient, which reduced the immediate threat of encirclement.
Russia launches spring-summer 2026 offensive with mechanized assaults near Lyman
December 31 surges to 85%35%
Russian forces initiated a series of mechanized assaults around Lyman signaling intent to advance on Slovyansk, raising market confidence sharply for a potential Russian capture of Lyman by year-end.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian-occupied buildings in northwestern Lyman amid counterattacks
December 31 dips to 45%4%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian strikes on Russian positions in northwestern Lyman, with Russian forces failing to make significant advances and Ukrainian counterattacks continuing, further reducing market confidence in Russian capture by year-end.
Russian Spring-Summer Offensive Fails to Make Significant Advances Near Lyman
December 31 drops to 43%8%
Russian forces launched mechanized assaults around Lyman to prioritize advancing on Slovyansk, but failed to make significant progress as Ukrainian forces launched successful counterattacks.
Ukrainian army heavily shells forest east of Lyman amid Russian offensive intensification
Ukrainian forces shelled areas east of Lyman while Russian forces intensified their offensive within the city, including entering northern and western districts and the railway area, reflecting ongoing fierce combat and contested control.
Russian offensive intensifies within Lyman amid Ukrainian shelling east of city
December 31 dips to 52%3%
Despite heavy Ukrainian shelling east of Lyman and infiltration attempts, Russian forces advanced into Severny and Zavodskoy districts and the railway area, reinforcing market belief in imminent Russian control.
Ukrainian Forces Strike Russian Infiltration Groups in Northwestern Lyman
December 31 drops to 42%12%
Geolocated footage confirmed that Ukrainian forces successfully targeted and struck Russian-occupied buildings in northwestern Lyman following a Russian infiltration mission, demonstrating active Ukrainian resistance inside the city limits.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions in northwestern Lyman after Russian infiltration mission
December 31 jumps to 54%5%
Geolocated footage on June 9 showed Ukrainian forces attacking Russian-occupied buildings in northwestern Lyman following a Russian infiltration attempt. This indicated ongoing contested control and hindered Russian consolidation of the area.
Russian offensive intensifies in Lyman as Ukrainian forces infiltrate nearby areas
December 31 rises to 52%3%
Russian forces entered northern and western districts of Lyman, including the railway area, while Ukrainian forces infiltrated nearby Yampil and forest east of Lyman, creating a contested battlefield and maintaining uncertainty in market prices.
Geolocated footage shows Ukrainian strikes on Russian positions in northwestern Lyman
December 31 jumps to 54%5%
On June 9, footage revealed Ukrainian forces striking Russian-occupied buildings in Lyman, indicating active Ukrainian control and counterattacks that challenged Russian advances, impacting market confidence in Russian capture.
Ukrainian forces heavily shell forest east of Lyman while Russian offensive intensifies in city
December 31 jumps to 53%6%
Ukrainian shelling east of Lyman and infiltration efforts coincided with intensified Russian offensives within the city, reflecting ongoing contested control and maintaining market uncertainty.
Russian forces intensify assaults in Lyman but fail to secure significant gains
December 31 jumps to 54%6%
On June 9, Russian forces increased assaults in the Lyman direction, including sending non-infantry personnel to the front due to infantry shortages. Despite intensified efforts, Ukrainian forces inflicted heavy casualties and maintained control, limiting Russian advances.
Ukrainian forces counterattack in Lyman direction, Russian infantry shortages reported
December 31 drops to 40%12%
Ukrainian counterattacks struck Russian-occupied buildings northwest of Lyman, while reports indicated Russian forces were sending non-infantry personnel to frontline assaults due to infantry shortages, signaling weakening Russian offensive capability in Lyman.
Ukrainian forces infiltrate areas near Lyman amid intensified Russian offensive
December 31 dips to 48%2%
Ukrainian army heavily shelled forests east of Lyman and infiltrated Yampil and areas along the T-05-13 highway, while Russian forces intensified their offensive within Lyman city, creating a contested and fluid frontline.
Russian forces claim advances in central Lyman amid ongoing Ukrainian resistance
December 31 jumps to 64%12%
Russian milbloggers claimed advances in central Lyman, but Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian positions and repel assaults. The contested nature of the city and ongoing fighting contributed to market uncertainty and price fluctuations.
Ukrainian forces counterattack northwest of Lyman, disrupting Russian advances
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian strikes on Russian positions in northwestern Lyman, indicating active Ukrainian counterattacks that hindered Russian efforts to capture the city and railroad station.
Ukrainian forces conduct counterattacks and strikes in and around Lyman
December 31 dips to 53%1%
Ukrainian army heavily shelled areas east of Lyman and infiltrated nearby settlements while Russian forces intensified their offensive within the city, indicating ongoing contested control and no decisive Russian capture yet.
Russian forces send non-infantry personnel to conduct assaults in Lyman direction amid infantry shortages
December 31 dips to 47%4%
Reports indicated Russian forces resorted to using logistics and repair personnel for frontline assaults near Lyman due to infantry shortages, reflecting operational difficulties and limiting their ability to capture the city or railroad station.
Ukrainian forces counterattack northwest of Lyman, striking Russian positions
June 30 drops to 22%9%
Geolocated footage and reports of Ukrainian strikes on Russian-occupied buildings northwest of Lyman indicated strong Ukrainian resistance, dampening market confidence in Russian capture and causing price declines for the June 30 outcome.
Russian milbloggers claim advances in central Lyman amid ongoing fighting
December 31 jumps to 52%6%
Russian milbloggers claimed advances in central Lyman, supported by geolocated footage of Ukrainian strikes on Russian positions, indicating active contested combat and influencing market optimism.
Russian forces launch mechanized assaults around Lyman but fail to make significant advances
December 31 drops to 54%11%
Russian military command prioritized advancing on Slovyansk via Lyman with mechanized assaults, but Russian forces failed to make significant gains, leading to a shift in focus to Kostyantynivka. This stalled progress reduced market confidence in Russian capture of Lyman.
Russian forces launch spring-summer offensive with mechanized assaults near Lyman
December 31 surges to 85%35%
Russian military initiated mechanized assaults around Lyman, signaling intent to advance on Slovyansk from the northeast. This raised market confidence sharply for Russia capturing Lyman by year-end.
Russian forces intensify assaults near Lyman but face Ukrainian resistance
December 31 drops to 55%12%
Russian forces launched multiple attacks near Lyman, including attempts to advance toward surrounding settlements, but Ukrainian defenders repelled these offensives, maintaining control of key positions. This limited Russian progress contributed to a decline in market confidence for Russia capturing Lyman by December 31.
Russian units spotted near Lyman railway station as Ukrainian forces lose ground
December 31 jumps to 75%13%
Reports indicated Russian forces advancing near the Lyman railway station with Ukrainian forces rapidly losing ground, raising market expectations of Russian capture.
ISW reports intensified Russian assaults near Lyman but no confirmed advances
December 31 dips to 49%1%
Russian forces increased attacks in the Lyman area, focusing on surrounding settlements to interdict Ukrainian supply routes, but no confirmed capture of the railroad station occurred, stabilizing market prices around 49% Yes for December 31.
Russian infantry infiltrates Lyman, encircling Ukrainian garrison
December 31 rises to 54%4%
Russian Guards 'West' units developed an operation to encircle the Lyman garrison from the flanks, with infantry penetrating deeper into the city, increasing market expectations for Russian capture by December 31.
Russian assault troops penetrate deeper into Lyman amid encirclement efforts
December 31 jumps to 56%7%
Russian assault troops penetrated deeper into Lyman's built-up areas while Ukrainian forces retreated to new defensive lines. The ongoing urban combat and encirclement attempts influenced market prices upward.
Zelensky meets European leaders to discuss peace talks with Russia
December 31 jumps to 55%5%
President Zelensky's meeting with UK, Germany, and France leaders to explore European-led peace negotiations influenced market sentiment by introducing diplomatic prospects, though no territorial changes occurred immediately.
Russian infantry infiltrates Lyman aiming to encircle Ukrainian forces
December 31 rises to 54%3%
Russian infantry units were reported infiltrating deep into Lyman's built-up areas with the goal of encircling Ukrainian strongpoints, signaling intensified urban combat but not full control, leading to mixed market reactions.
Russian Guards 'West' units develop operation to encircle Lyman garrison from flanks
December 31 rises to 51%1%
Russian assault troops penetrated deeper into Lyman's built-up areas and attempted to encircle Ukrainian forces, indicating intensified Russian efforts to capture the city, but Ukrainian resistance continued to prevent full control.
Russian Guards 'West' units encircle Lyman garrison from flanks
December 31 jumps to 55%6%
Russian infantry infiltrated deeper into Lyman's built-up areas, including the railway zone, aiming to encircle Ukrainian forces, significantly boosting market confidence in a Russian capture by year-end.
Russian Guards 'West' units attempt to encircle Lyman garrison
December 31 rises to 52%4%
Russian infantry intensified infiltration and encirclement operations in Lyman, increasing pressure on Ukrainian defenders and briefly raising market optimism for Russian capture.
ISW reports Russian 3rd Combined Arms Army achieves tactical successes near Lyman but faces slowing advance
December 31 jumps to 69%9%
Russian 3rd CAA made some tactical gains toward Slovyansk and cutting Ukrainian logistics to Lyman, but overall advance slowed due to Ukrainian counterattacks and resource constraints, limiting Russian capture chances.
Russian 3rd Combined Arms Army slows advance near Lyman amid Ukrainian counterattacks
December 31 plunges to 60%21%
The 3rd CAA's advance toward Slovyansk and Lyman slowed due to Ukrainian counterattacks, with Russian forces committing excess manpower for small tactical gains, indicating difficulties in capturing Lyman's key positions.
Ukrainian forces maintain control in Lyman despite Russian proximity
December 31 rises to 51%1%
Despite Russian forces being close to Slovyansk and intensifying operations, Ukrainian forces continued to operate in Lyman and nearby areas, indicating no Russian capture of the station and sustaining market uncertainty.
LiveUAMap logs six failed Russian assaults near Lyman
June 30 plunges to 22%29%
A LiveUAMap report listed a series of six Russian attacks in the Lyman direction that failed to achieve territorial change, reinforcing the market’s tilt toward “June 30”.
Russian forces operate in eastern Lyman after infiltration mission, Ukrainian forces counterattack
December 31 dips to 48%2%
Geolocated footage showed Russian forces operating in eastern Lyman following infiltration missions, but Ukrainian forces maintained pressure with counterattacks, preventing Russian consolidation of control over the area.
Russia announces withdrawal from strategic Lyman railroad station area
December 31 dips to 49%1%
On June 4, 2026, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced the withdrawal of forces from Lyman, acknowledging the threat of encirclement and effectively conceding that Russia did not capture the Lyman railroad station by the resolution date.
Russian forces launch multiple assaults near Lyman, Ukrainian troops repel attacks
December 31 rises to 51%2%
Russian troops attempted numerous assaults near Lyman, but Ukrainian forces thwarted 21 attempts to advance, maintaining control and preventing Russian capture, influencing market confidence for December 31 capture.
Russian forces fail to infiltrate Lyman beyond small isolated section
December 31 dips to 49%1%
By June 3, reports confirmed that Russian forces had only infiltrated a small isolated section of southeastern Lyman, with claims of control in northern and northeastern Lyman being false. This failure impeded Russian offensive efforts and reduced the likelihood of capturing the Lyman railroad station by year-end.
ISW reports Russian infiltration in eastern Lyman but no consolidated control
December 31 dips to 49%3%
Geolocated footage showed Russian forces operating in eastern Lyman after infiltration missions, but ISW assessed no consolidated presence or encirclement, indicating ongoing contested control and limiting market confidence.
Geolocated footage shows Russian forces operating in eastern Lyman after infiltration mission
December 31 dips to 49%1%
Footage published on June 3 showed Russian forces operating in eastern Lyman following an infiltration mission, indicating limited presence but no confirmed full control of the railroad station by the resolution date.
ISW and analysts report Russian forces failed to secure Lyman positions
December 31 dips to 48%3%
Reports from ISW and military observers indicated Russian forces only infiltrated a small isolated section of Lyman and failed to establish control in northern and northeastern parts. Ukrainian forces maintained or advanced in surrounding areas, undermining Russian offensive efforts.
ISW reports Russian forces failed to infiltrate significant parts of Lyman
December 31 dips to 48%1%
ISW reported that Russian forces only infiltrated a small isolated section of southeastern Lyman and that claims of Russian control in northern and northeastern Lyman were false. This reinforced market skepticism about Russian capture by the end of 2025.
ISW reports Russian infiltration mission in southeastern Lyman but no full control
December 31 rises to 50%4%
On June 3, ISW reported Russian forces conducted infiltration missions in southeastern Lyman but failed to establish full control. Ukrainian forces maintained positions, limiting Russian advances and keeping the market probability stable around 50%.
Russian efforts to encircle Lyman falter, Ukrainian forces maintain control
December 31 dips to 48%3%
On June 3, ISW reported that Russian forces failed to infiltrate more than a small isolated section of Lyman and that claims of Russian control in northern and northeastern Lyman were false. This highlighted the failure of Russian encirclement attempts and impeded their offensive toward Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, negatively impacting market expectations for Russian capture of Lyman.
Russian forces advance in southeastern Lyman amid ongoing fighting
December 31 rises to 51%1%
Early June 2026 saw Russian forces advancing in southeastern Lyman, suggesting incremental gains but not full control, contributing to mixed market signals and modest price increases for December 31 outcome.
Russian forces fail to secure Lyman, limited infiltration only
June 30 rises to 8%2%
Reports from Ukrainian military observers indicated Russian forces failed to infiltrate more than a small isolated section of Lyman, with no confirmed control of the railroad station. This reinforced market skepticism about capture by June 30.
ISW map shows Ukrainian control holding near Lyman railroad station
December 31 drops to 46%8%
The ISW map indicated Ukrainian control near the Lyman railroad station as of early June, leading to a price trough at 46% for the December 31 outcome, reflecting diminished expectations of Russian capture by the deadline.
Source refutes Russian claims of capture south of Lyman
June 30 drops to 8%6%
ISW reported a source refuting Russian claims of seizing Brusivka and Stary Karavan south of Lyman, confirming no new ground was taken and driving “June 30” to 8 % on 29‑Jun.
ISW reports Russian forces failed to infiltrate most of Lyman, Ukrainian drone strikes impede Russian buildup
December 31 dips to 47%2%
On June 1, ISW reported that Russian forces had only infiltrated a small isolated section of Lyman and that Ukrainian drone strikes in May severely limited Russian ability to accumulate forces, indicating Russian failure to capture the city and depressing market confidence.
Russian forces advance near Lyman but no confirmed capture of key positions
December 31 rises to 56%2%
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Lyman with claims of advances in nearby villages, but sources refuted claims of capturing key settlements. This maintained uncertainty about Russian control of Lyman, impacting market confidence.
Russian forces continue attacks near Lyman but fail to make confirmed advances
December 31 dips to 47%1%
Russian forces launched attacks near Lyman and surrounding settlements but did not secure new territory. Ukrainian drone strikes impeded Russian logistics and personnel buildup, further reducing Russian chances of capturing Lyman railroad station by the deadline.
Russian forces continue offensive in Lyman sector but make no confirmed advances
December 31 dips to 46%2%
Russian forces maintained offensive operations north and southeast of Sumy City and in the Slovyansk direction near Lyman but did not achieve confirmed territorial gains, indicating stalled progress and contributing to market price declines.
Russian claims of advances near Lyman refuted; no confirmed capture
December 31 dips to 49%1%
Sources refuted Russian claims of seizing settlements near Lyman, and ISW assessed Russian forces made limited gains with no confirmed capture of Lyman or its railroad station by June 1, 2026.
Russian forces continue offensive operations near Lyman without confirmed advances
On June 1, Russian forces conducted offensive operations in the Slovyansk direction near Lyman but did not make confirmed advances, keeping the market uncertain about Russia's ability to capture the Lyman railroad station.
Ukrainian drones halt Russian buildup around Lyman
December 31 jumps to 51%5%
ISW noted that Ukrainian drone strikes impeded Russian buildup around Lyman, further dragging the “December 31” probability down and shifting focus to the “June 30” option.
Russian forces claim advances near Lyman but no confirmed gains
Russian forces claimed advances in villages near Lyman, but sources refuted claims of seizing key settlements, and ISW reported no confirmed advances, reflecting stalled Russian momentum and ongoing Ukrainian resistance.
Russian forces continue infiltration near Lyman but no confirmed advances
December 31 jumps to 53%5%
On June 1, Russian forces continued infiltration missions near Lyman and surrounding areas but did not make confirmed advances, indicating ongoing contested control and contributing to market uncertainty.
Russian claims of seizing settlements near Lyman refuted by local sources
December 31 rises to 51%1%
A source reporting on the Russian Western Grouping of Forces refuted Russian claims of seizing Stary Karavan and Brusivka south of Lyman, indicating limited Russian territorial gains. This further dampened market confidence in a near-term Russian capture of Lyman.
Russian forces fail to make confirmed advances around Lyman amid Ukrainian counterattacks
December 31 dips to 46%4%
On June 1, ISW reported that Russian forces continued offensive operations near Lyman but did not make confirmed advances, with Ukrainian forces maintaining defensive positions and counterattacking. This limited Russian progress contributed to market uncertainty and a slight price decline.
Russian forces launch offensive operations near Lyman but fail to make confirmed advances
December 31 dips to 49%3%
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Slovyansk direction including near Lyman but did not achieve confirmed territorial gains, indicating limited progress in capturing Lyman. This contributed to market uncertainty about Russian success by December 31.
ISW: No confirmed Russian advances near Lyman as of June 1
The ISW June 1 assessment confirmed that Russian forces had made no confirmed advances in the Slovyansk/Lyman direction and that Ukrainian forces had largely halted the Russian offensive. This reinforced the market view that a capture by June 30 was increasingly unlikely, keeping the “June 30” price at 7 %.
Russian claims of seizing areas south of Lyman refuted; no confirmed advances
December 31 dips to 46%2%
A source refuted Russian claims of seizing Stary Karavan and Brusivka south of Lyman, and Russian forces did not make confirmed advances, leading to market price stabilization around 46% for December 31.
Russian advances in May 2026 minimal, offensive largely halted
June 30 drops to 6%9%
Reports indicated Russian forces occupied only 14 additional square kilometers in May 2026, with Ukrainian forces largely halting the offensive. This confirmed the slow progress near Lyman and contributed to the market's decline in capture probability for June 30.
Russian offensive near Lyman stalls with no confirmed advances
December 31 dips to 48%1%
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Lyman but did not make confirmed advances, and some claims of territorial gains were refuted, reflecting stalled progress and market stabilization.
Clashes continue near Lyman with no confirmed Russian capture of railroad station
December 31 dips to 50%2%
Ongoing fighting and multiple repelled Russian assaults near Lyman without confirmed control of the railroad station maintained uncertainty and low market confidence in Russian capture by May 31.
Russian forces repeatedly attempt to break through Ukrainian defenses near Lyman but fail
December 31 rises to 50%1%
Russian forces launched multiple attacks near Lyman but were repelled by Ukrainian defenses, indicating no Russian capture of the railroad station or city control.
Russian analysts claim rapid advance toward Lyman
December 31 jumps to 51%5%
A media report citing Russian analysts claiming a rapid advance toward Lyman sparked a brief resurgence of “December 31” odds, reflected in the modest June 4 price bump.
Russian forces show limited gains near Lyman amid stalled offensive
December 31 drops to 48%6%
Russian forces conducted infiltration missions and artillery strikes near Lyman but failed to make significant territorial gains. Ukrainian forces largely halted the Russian offensive, leading to market price decline.
Russian forces launch multiple attacks near Lyman but face strong Ukrainian defense
December 31 rises to 50%1%
Russian forces attempted 12 times to break through Ukrainian defenses near Lyman and surrounding settlements, but Ukrainian forces held firm. This ongoing fighting kept market confidence moderate, with prices around 49-50% Yes for December 31.
Ukrainian strikes destroy Russian long-range aircraft and missile system near Taganrog
December 31 dips to 50%4%
Ukrainian forces destroyed two Tu-142 long-range aircraft and an Iskander missile system at a Russian air base near Taganrog, weakening Russian military capabilities and contributing to declining market confidence in Russian capture of Lyman.
Twelve Russian break‑through attempts near Lyman repelled
June 30 plunges to 9%64%
EMPR reported twelve Russian attempts to break through Ukrainian defenses around Lyman, all repelled. The string of failures drove the June‑30 market sharply downward.
ISW reports Russian forces continue infiltration but no confirmed capture of Lyman
ISW reported ongoing Russian infiltration missions near Lyman but no confirmed territorial gains or capture of the railroad station, reinforcing the market's low confidence in Russian capture by May 31, 2026.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions in Lyman direction, continuing to impede advances
May 31 dips to 1%2%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian strikes on Russian servicemembers near Lyman, confirming ongoing Ukrainian resistance and lack of Russian control over the railroad station, supporting low market prices for capture by May 31.
Russian forces repeatedly attack Ukrainian positions near Lyman with limited success
Russian occupiers launched multiple attacks near Lyman and surrounding settlements but failed to break Ukrainian defenses, indicating stalled Russian advances and maintaining uncertainty about capturing the railroad station.
ISW map confirms no Russian control of Lyman railroad station
December 31 dips to 48%2%
The ISW assessed control of terrain in the Lyman tactical area on May 29, 2026, showing no Russian control over the Lyman railroad station. This official mapping source is the primary resolution criterion for the market and confirmed the market's declining probability of Russian capture.
ISW map shows contested control around Lyman railroad station with no Russian capture
December 31 dips to 49%3%
ISW's May 29, 2026 map assessment indicated ongoing contested control in the Lyman tactical area, with no confirmed Russian capture of the railroad station, reflecting the market's declining confidence in a year-end Russian capture.
ISW reports Russian generals feeding Kremlin false maps claiming towns never captured
June 30 drops to 16%6%
ISW revealed that Russian generals provided inflated reports of territorial gains including near Lyman, masking a steep slowdown in advances. This disclosure likely contributed to declining market confidence in Russian capture of Lyman by June 30.
ISW map shows Ukrainian forces control Lyman area, Russian forces encircled and stalled
December 31 dips to 49%3%
ISW's assessed control of terrain map from May 29 shows no Russian control over the Lyman railroad station area, with Ukrainian forces maintaining control and Russian forces encircled. This confirmed Russia had not captured the station by late May.
Russian Defense Minister orders acceleration of advances on Lyman axis
December 31 rises to 54%4%
Amid slow progress and inflated reporting, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov ordered forces to accelerate advances along the Lyman axis, reflecting pressure to achieve tangible gains, which briefly supported market prices.
ISW reports Russian generals provide false maps claiming towns including Lyman captured
December 31 dips to 48%3%
ISW revealed that Russian generals fed the Kremlin false information about territorial gains including Lyman, masking a steep slowdown in advances. This undermined confidence in Russian capture prospects and contributed to market price declines.
ISW reports Russian generals exaggerate territorial gains in Lyman area
December 31 dips to 50%3%
ISW revealed that Russian generals provided false maps showing towns never captured, including in the Lyman axis, and that Russian forces were ordered to accelerate advances to match these inflated claims. This exposed the gap between reported and actual control, reducing confidence in Russian capture of Lyman.
ISW reports Russian generals feeding Kremlin false maps claiming towns never captured
December 31 drops to 54%12%
ISW revealed that Russian military command regularly presents exaggerated maps to Kremlin leadership, including false claims of territorial gains such as in Lyman, which likely misleads strategic decisions and affects market perceptions of Russian advances.
DeepStateMap marks Ukrainian gains near Novoselivka
June 30 drops to 7%6%
DeepStateMap showed Ukrainian forces recapturing positions around Novoselivka, confirming a Ukrainian counter‑offensive in the Lyman sector and further depressing the June‑30 odds.
ISW reports no evidence of Russian control in Lyman despite claims
December 31 dips to 49%1%
ISW assessed that Russian forces have not seized Lyman and only infiltrated small parts, with Russian generals providing exaggerated reports to Kremlin. This official assessment reinforced market skepticism about Russian capture of Lyman by year-end.
ISW map shows Ukrainian control of Lyman railroad station
December 31 dips to 49%3%
ISW's May 29 assessment indicated Ukrainian forces still controlled the Lyman railroad station, maintaining resistance against Russian advances and stabilizing market prices around 50%.
ISW map shows no Russian control of Lyman railroad station as of late May 2026
The ISW assessed control of terrain map from May 29, 2026, indicates that Russian forces have not captured the Lyman railroad station, with the area remaining under Ukrainian control. This official assessment supports a 'No' resolution for the market as of that date.
Russian Defense Minister Orders Accelerated Advances Along Lyman Axis
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov ordered the Western grouping of forces to accelerate offensive operations along the Kupiansk, Borova, and Lyman axes, attempting to align actual battlefield gains with inflated internal military maps.
Russian military command's exaggerations persist amid slow advances near Lyman
June 30 plunges to 6%16%
ISW reported that Russian forces have only infiltrated small areas near Lyman with no significant gains, while Ukrainian forces continue to disrupt Russian logistics, maintaining low market confidence for capture by June 30.
Russian forces fail to make significant gains near Lyman despite increased offensive tempo
December 31 drops to 49%5%
Despite orders to accelerate advances in the Lyman direction, Russian forces made limited progress and Ukrainian forces continued to hold key areas near Lyman. This reinforced market skepticism about a Russian capture by December 31.
Ukrainian forces maintain control north and south of Lyman; Russian infantry groups make no gains
December 31 dips to 48%1%
By late May, Ukrainian forces controlled areas north and south of Lyman, with Russian infantry groups operating without making additional gains since late April. This confirmed Russia had not captured the Lyman railroad station, reinforcing market doubts about a 'Yes' resolution.
Ukrainian forces maintain control and target Russian logistics near Lyman
June 30 dips to 7%3%
Ukrainian brigades reported targeting Russian ground lines of communication and drone operators near Lyman, inhibiting Russian supply and limiting advances. This contributed to a further decline in market confidence for Russian capture by June 30.
Belousov orders faster push on Lyman axis
December 31 rises to 51%1%
Defense Minister Belousov ordered acceleration of advances along the Lyman axis, briefly boosting optimism and pushing “December 31” back up to 51 % on 20‑May.
ISW: Russian forces make no new advances near Lyman
December 31 drops to 46%6%
ISW reported that Russian infantry groups near Lyman had made no further gains since late April, prompting a sharp fall in “December 31” odds.
ISW reports Russian forces infiltrate small areas near Lyman but make no significant gains
December 31 drops to 49%5%
The Institute for the Study of War reported on May 28 that Russian forces had small infantry groups operating near Lyman but had not made additional gains since late April. This assessment indicated a stalled Russian offensive in the area, reducing market confidence in a near-term capture of Lyman.
Ukrainian forces target Russian supply lines near Lyman, limiting advances
June 30 drops to 6%10%
Ukrainian brigades reported targeting Russian ground lines of communication and drone operators near Lyman, disrupting Russian supply and limiting their ability to sustain forward positions. This contributed to the market's sharp decline in confidence for capture by June 30 and May 31 deadlines.
Russian Defense orders increased offensive pace in Lyman direction amid slow gains
December 31 dips to 48%2%
Russian Defense Minister ordered acceleration of advances in the Lyman area despite slow progress and persistent Ukrainian counterattacks, highlighting ongoing contested fighting and lack of decisive Russian control over Lyman.
Russian Defense Minister orders increased pace of advances in Lyman direction
December 31 drops to 49%5%
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov ordered the Western Grouping of Forces to accelerate advances in the Lyman direction, signaling high command pressure to capture the area. Despite this, Russian forces made limited gains, reflecting ongoing challenges.
Russian Defense Minister orders acceleration of advances in Lyman direction
December 31 dips to 48%1%
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov ordered the Western Grouping of Forces to increase the pace of advances in the Lyman direction, reflecting pressure to achieve gains despite limited success, causing minor market fluctuations.
Russian milbloggers claim capture of Brusyn train station near Lyman
December 31 jumps to 57%5%
Russian milbloggers announced the seizure of the Brusyn train station (south‑west of Lyman). The market rallied, moving from 52 % to 57 % as participants priced in a possible breakthrough toward the Lyman hub.
Ukrainian forces control roads near Lyman, Russian advances limited
December 31 dips to 50%4%
Reports on May 26 indicated Ukrainian control of key roads near Lyman and geolocated footage showed Russian forces striking Ukrainian positions but not securing the city. This suggested Russian forces were failing to capture Lyman, further lowering market probability.
Ukrainian forces control road northeast of Lyman; Russian forces strike Ukrainian positions nearby
December 31 rises to 50%1%
Reports indicate Ukrainian control of key roads near Lyman and ongoing Russian strikes on Ukrainian positions, suggesting Ukraine's defensive hold remains strong and Russian advances limited.
Ukrainian forces control road between Lyman and Stavky, indicating continued Ukrainian presence near Lyman
December 31 rises to 50%1%
ISW reported Ukrainian control of the road northeast of Lyman and geolocated footage showed Russian forces striking Ukrainian positions near Lyman, indicating contested control and Ukrainian advances rather than Russian capture of the area.
Reports indicate Ukrainian control of road between Lyman and Stavky
December 31 dips to 50%2%
A source reported Ukrainian forces control the road between Lyman and Stavky, with footage showing Russian strikes on Ukrainian positions nearby, suggesting Ukrainian hold on key access routes and limiting Russian control of Lyman.
Ukrainian forces maintain control of key roads near Lyman
December 31 drops to 49%5%
Ukrainian forces controlled the road between Lyman and Stavky and held positions east and north of Lyman, indicating strong defense and limiting Russian advances. Market prices declined further to 49% for December 31.
Ukrainian forces hold more positions in and east of Lyman than previously assessed
December 31 drops to 58%5%
Reports indicated Ukrainian control of roads and positions northeast and north of Lyman, with Russian forces striking Ukrainian positions but unable to fully control the area, keeping the railroad station contested.
ISW reports Ukrainian control of road northeast of Lyman and Russian strikes east of Stavky
December 31 dips to 50%2%
On May 26, ISW reported Ukrainian forces control the road between Lyman and Stavky, with Russian forces striking Ukrainian positions east of Stavky and northwestern Lyman, indicating Ukraine held key terrain including near the railroad station.
Ukrainian forces hold more positions in Lyman than previously assessed
June 30 dips to 8%1%
Reports and geolocated footage in late May indicated Ukrainian forces controlled roads and positions around Lyman, suggesting Russian forces had not fully captured the area. This assessment lowered confidence in Russian capture by June 30.
Reports of Russian withdrawal of equipment from Lyman frontline amid Ukrainian strikes
December 31 drops to 49%5%
On May 25, sources reported Russian forces withdrawing ammunition and heavy equipment from the Lyman frontline due to intensified Ukrainian strikes, signaling Russian operational difficulties and diminishing chances of capturing the Lyman railroad station by the deadline.
Russian forces withdraw equipment from Lyman frontline amid Ukrainian strikes
December 31 dips to 50%4%
Reports indicated Russian forces conducting large-scale withdrawal of ammunition and heavy equipment from frontline areas in the Lyman direction due to Ukrainian strikes on military infrastructure, suggesting weakening Russian offensive capability and reducing likelihood of capturing Lyman station soon.
Russian forces make multiple attempts to penetrate Ukrainian defenses near Lyman
December 31 dips to 50%2%
On May 25, reports indicated Russian forces made 11 attempts to penetrate Ukrainian defenses near Lyman and surrounding settlements but failed to secure significant gains. This reinforced market doubts about imminent Russian capture of Lyman.
Ukrainian strikes force Russian withdrawal of equipment from Lyman frontline
December 31 dips to 50%4%
Ukrainian strikes against Russian military infrastructure forced Russian forces to withdraw equipment from the Lyman frontline, indicating difficulties for Russia to maintain offensive momentum. This development likely contributed to market uncertainty and price fluctuations.
Russian forces hesitant to use artillery and armor near Lyman due to Ukrainian drone strikes
December 31 dips to 51%3%
On May 23, reports indicated Russian forces hesitated to deploy artillery and armored vehicles near Lyman because of effective Ukrainian battlefield air interdiction and frequent counterattacks. This limited Russian offensive capability and contributed to stalled advances, influencing market prices downward for near-term capture.
Russian forces reinforce Lyman direction but face Ukrainian counterattacks
December 31 dips to 51%3%
In late May, Russian forces redeployed units to the Lyman direction and increased artillery and armored presence, but Ukrainian counterattacks and drone strikes hindered Russian advances, keeping the frontline contested and market prices subdued.
Ukrainian strike on Russian position in eastern Lyman shows stalled Russian advance
June 30 plunges to 7%26%
Critical Threats reported that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian position in eastern Lyman on May 20, indicating continued Ukrainian resistance and no Russian breakthrough. The assessment that Russian advances were stalling reinforced a bearish outlook for a Lyman capture, driving the “June 30” price to a low of 7 % by early June.
Russian forces miss May 2026 deadline to seize Kostyantynivka after stalled Lyman offensive
December 31 drops to 48%6%
Russian forces failed to capture Kostyantynivka by May 2026, having shifted focus from Lyman after unsuccessful attempts to advance on Slovyansk. This marked a continuation of stalled progress in the Lyman area and diminished prospects for capturing the city and its railroad station soon.
Russian forces report local successes near Lyman amid intensified fighting
December 31 rises to 54%2%
On May 22, reports indicated increased activity and local successes by Russian units on the approaches to Lyman, with small groups operating within the city. However, Ukrainian forces maintained significant presence and resistance, limiting Russian advances. This news temporarily supported market confidence in a possible Russian capture of Lyman.
Bloomberg reports Kremlin officials see war in deadlock but Putin aims to seize Donetsk by end 2026
December 31 rises to 54%1%
On May 22, 2026, Bloomberg reported that senior Kremlin officials believed the war had reached a dead end with no clear resolution, but President Putin remained committed to fully seizing Donetsk Oblast, including Lyman, by the end of 2026. This reinforced market expectations of eventual Russian capture by year-end.
Russian forces conduct infiltration missions near Lyman but fail to secure key positions
December 31 drops to 56%11%
Geolocated footage and reports on May 21-22 showed Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions in eastern Lyman after Russian infiltration attempts. Western officials noted Ukraine's strong defenses stabilizing the front, limiting Russian advances. This contributed to a price drop in the December 31 outcome from 67% to 56%.
Fighting near Lyman intensifies with Russian local successes but no full control
December 31 dips to 49%3%
On May 22, reports indicated increased fighting near Lyman with Russian units achieving local successes on approaches to the city, but significant Ukrainian presence remained. This suggested ongoing contested control rather than Russian capture of the railroad station.
Russian forces report successes near Lyman amid contradictory attack reports
December 31 dips to 52%1%
On May 22, Russian Armed Forces reported successes in Lyman and nearby areas despite contradictory reports on the northern flank. This indicated ongoing fighting and uncertainty about control, impacting market confidence in Russian capture of Lyman by year-end.
Russian Armed Forces report successes near Lyman amid contradictory reports
December 31 rises to 51%2%
Russian forces reported successes near Lyman in May, but reports were contradictory, leading to market price fluctuations and uncertainty about control of the area.
Fighting intensifies near Lyman with Russian local successes but Ukrainian resistance remains
December 31 drops to 48%6%
Reports from multiple sources indicated increased fighting near Lyman with Russian units achieving local successes on approaches to the city, but significant Ukrainian "pockets" remained northeast of Lyman. This mixed situation led to market uncertainty and a decline in the probability of Russian capture by December 31.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions east of Lyman amid infiltration missions
June 30 plunges to 28%26%
In late May 2026, Ukrainian forces conducted strikes on Russian positions east of Lyman, indicating active resistance and contested control, which pressured market prices downward for Russian capture by June 30.
Russian units report local successes near Lyman amid ongoing fighting
December 31 dips to 52%1%
On May 22, Russian Armed Forces reported local successes on approaches to Lyman, though Ukrainian forces maintained presence in nearby pockets. Fighting intensified but no confirmed capture of the Lyman railroad station occurred, reflecting market uncertainty and price stabilization around 50%.
Ukrainian forces hold key roads and strike Russian positions near Lyman
December 31 dips to 49%3%
Geolocated footage and reports indicated Ukrainian control of roads between Lyman and nearby settlements and strikes on Russian positions, showing Ukrainian resistance and limiting Russian advances, contributing to market price declines.
ISW reports Ukrainian forces contesting Russian advances near Lyman
ISW assessment noted Ukrainian forces maintaining positions near Lyman and Russian forces intensifying drone attacks but failing to make meaningful territorial gains, reflecting ongoing contested control and uncertainty over Russian capture of Lyman.
ISW reports no significant Russian gains in Lyman; Ukrainian forces maintain control
December 31 dips to 49%3%
By late May, ISW assessments confirmed that Russian forces had not captured Lyman or its railroad station, despite ongoing fighting and Russian claims. Ukrainian forces continued to hold positions and strike Russian forces, reinforcing market expectations that Russia would not capture Lyman by the end of 2025.
Russian forces intensify strikes on Ukrainian railroad infrastructure near Lyman
December 31 rises to 53%2%
Russian troops conducted systematic attacks on enemy railway infrastructure in various regions including near Lyman, signaling attempts to disrupt Ukrainian logistics and possibly prepare for offensive operations. This increased activity contributed to early market uncertainty about control of Lyman's railroad station.
Russian forces achieve local successes on approaches to Lyman amid active front
December 31 dips to 63%4%
Russian units made local gains on the approaches to Lyman, increasing activity around the front, but Ukrainian forces still held significant positions within and near the city. This raised market optimism about a possible Russian capture but with uncertainty about full control.
Ukrainian forces repel Russian infiltration attempts near Lyman
December 31 dips to 50%2%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions in eastern Lyman after infiltration missions, indicating active Ukrainian defense and preventing Russian consolidation in the area. This limited Russian territorial gains and contributed to market uncertainty.
US Defense Intelligence Agency notes Ukraine's territorial gains after Russian loss of Starlink
December 31 dips to 50%4%
The DIA reported Ukraine's recent territorial gains following Russian loss of Starlink access, indicating effective Ukrainian resistance and hindering Russian advances near Lyman, lowering capture probability.
Russian forces report successes in Lyman direction amid ongoing fighting
December 31 drops to 54%13%
Russian forces claimed successes in attacks on the northern flank of Lyman, but reports were contradictory and Ukrainian forces maintained contested control. This contributed to initial market uncertainty and a price drop for the December 31 outcome from 67% to 54%.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions in eastern Lyman amid ongoing infiltration missions
December 31 drops to 48%6%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian strikes on Russian positions in eastern Lyman, indicating active Ukrainian defense and disruption of Russian infiltration efforts, limiting Russian territorial gains.
Ukrainian counterattacks intensify near Lyman, limiting Russian advances
December 31 drops to 49%13%
Ukrainian forces launched counterattacks north and east of Lyman, disrupting Russian infiltration and offensive operations, which contributed to a decline in market confidence for a Russian capture of the Lyman railroad station.
Fighting intensifies near Lyman but Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions in eastern Lyman
December 31 dips to 53%1%
On May 20 and 21, geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions in eastern Lyman after Russian infiltration attempts, indicating Ukraine retained control of key areas including the railroad station, reducing likelihood of Russian capture by year-end.
Ukrainian forces advance southeast of Kryva Luka and strike Russian positions in eastern Lyman
December 31 dips to 50%3%
Geolocated footage confirmed Ukrainian advances and strikes near Lyman, indicating ongoing Ukrainian control and resistance, which kept market confidence in Russian capture low.
US DIA and NATO report Ukraine's strong defense stabilizing front near Lyman
June 30 drops to 7%6%
Western intelligence assessments highlighted Ukraine's effective defense and Russian offensive stagnation near Lyman, reinforcing market doubts about Russian capture by June 30 and May 31 dates.
Russian units achieve local successes near Lyman amid intensified fighting
December 31 jumps to 66%5%
Russian forces made local gains on approaches to Lyman, increasing activity and pressure on the city. However, Ukrainian forces maintained significant presence in nearby areas, keeping the situation contested and preventing decisive Russian control of the railroad station.
Russian forces report successes on Lyman front amid ongoing attacks
December 31 dips to 53%1%
Russian forces reported successes in Lyman and nearby areas despite contradictory reports. Continued fighting and strikes on logistics infrastructure kept the situation fluid, with no confirmed Russian capture of the Lyman railroad station, maintaining market uncertainty and a moderate price level.
Russian forces report small group operations in Lyman amid ongoing fighting
December 31 dips to 52%1%
Russian Armed Forces reported continued small group operations within Lyman and nearby areas in late May, indicating contested control but no confirmed capture of the railroad station by year-end.
Ukrainian mid‑range strikes intensify against Russian logistics near Lyman
June 30 drops to 16%6%
Brovdi announced a surge in Ukrainian mid‑range strikes targeting Russian logistics near Lyman, reinforcing the view that Russia would not capture the station, pushing “June 30” down to 16 % on 3‑May.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions in eastern Lyman amid ongoing infiltration attempts
December 31 dips to 50%2%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions in eastern Lyman after Russian infiltration missions, indicating continued contested control but no confirmed Russian capture of the railroad station. This maintained market uncertainty and a moderate probability of Russian capture.
Russian command transfers tank regiments to Lyman direction
December 31 jumps to 79%13%
Reports indicated that Russian command moved several tank regiments to the Lyman direction to compensate for losses, suggesting a focus on capturing Lyman. This reinforced market expectations for a Russian capture by year-end.
Russian drone attack on Ukrainian railway station in Krasnodar region
Russia launched a drone attack on a railway station in the Krasnodar region, with drone wreckage falling on the station and causing injuries, demonstrating Russian capability to strike Ukrainian infrastructure.
Ukrainian Forces Strike Russian Infiltration Position in Eastern Lyman
December 31 rises to 54%2%
Geolocated footage confirmed Ukrainian forces struck a Russian position in eastern Lyman following an infiltration attempt, demonstrating active Ukrainian resistance and interspersed positions.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions in eastern Lyman amid ongoing fighting
May 31 dips to 1%4%
Geolocated footage on May 20 showed Ukrainian strikes on Russian positions in eastern Lyman, indicating active contested control and no confirmed Russian capture of the railroad station. This contributed to further market decline in the probability of Russian capture by May 31.
Ukrainian Forces Strike Russian Infiltration Position in Eastern Lyman
June 30 jumps to 14%8%
Geolocated footage confirmed Ukrainian forces struck a Russian position in eastern Lyman following a localized Russian infiltration mission, showing that Russian forces had not established stable control.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions in eastern Lyman
December 31 dips to 54%4%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions in eastern Lyman after a Russian infiltration mission, indicating ongoing contested fighting and stalling Russian advances near the railroad station.
Geolocated footage shows Russian advances north and east of Lyman
Footage published in mid-May showed Russian forces advancing in eastern Ridkodub and central Torske, north and east of Lyman, indicating ongoing Russian efforts to approach Lyman but without confirmed capture of the railroad station, sustaining market uncertainty.
Russian command redeploys forces to Lyman direction amid heavy losses
December 31 drops to 56%11%
Reports indicated that Russian forces were transferring units from Kupyansk to the Lyman direction to compensate for heavy losses, signaling a focus on Lyman but also highlighting difficulties in the area. This redeployment suggested ongoing intense fighting but no decisive Russian control over Lyman.
Ukrainian forces maintain control of western Lyman, repel Russian incursions
May 31 drops to 2%5%
Ukrainian reports and geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces still holding western Lyman and repelling Russian infiltrations, reinforcing market belief that a capture was unlikely; price for May 31 fell from 7 % to 2 % the next day.
ISW maps show Ukraine still in control of western Lyman rail area
December 31 dips to 52%2%
ISW analysis of geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces still holding western Lyman and the nearby rail corridor, contradicting earlier Russian claims of advance. The market slipped from 54 % to 52 % as traders judged the Lyman rail station remained out of Russian hands.
Ukrainian counterattack expands control east of Lyman
December 31 drops to 57%8%
Ukrainian forces continued a counterattack expanding control east of Lyman, maintaining control of the railroad station and limiting Russian advances, contributing to a decline in market confidence for Russian capture by December 31.
Ukrainian forces maintain control in western Lyman amid Russian infiltration
December 31 dips to 51%4%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces holding positions in western Lyman while Russian forces operated only in small infiltration groups without making gains. This confirmed lack of Russian control over Lyman railroad station, negatively impacting market outlook.
Fighting intensifies near Lyman with drone usage complicating logistics
December 31 dips to 49%4%
On May 19, Ukrainian reports indicated intensified Russian use of Molniya drones complicating logistics near Lyman, with ongoing fighting and neither side fully controlling the area. This maintained market uncertainty and price near 49%.
Russian and Ukrainian forces intensify logistics strikes near Lyman
June 30 drops to 7%6%
Both sides increased efforts to disrupt each other's logistics in the Lyman direction, with Russian forces using drones and Ukrainian forces conducting counterattacks, reflecting a stalemate and contributing to declining market confidence for Russian capture by June 30.
Russian assault groups infiltrate Lyman's central districts amid heavy fighting
December 31 jumps to 54%6%
Reports indicated Russian infantry infiltrated deep into Lyman's central microdistricts aiming to encircle Ukrainian strongpoints, signaling intensified urban combat and potential for future gains.
Russian forces intensify drone attacks and logistics disruption near Lyman
December 31 dips to 54%2%
Reports indicated increased use of Molniya drones by Russian forces complicating Ukrainian logistics around Lyman, reflecting ongoing fierce fighting and influencing market perceptions of Russian capture chances.
Ukrainian forces maintain positions in western Lyman, indicating Russian infiltration not control
December 31 dips to 52%2%
Geolocated footage on May 19 showed Ukrainian forces holding positions in western Lyman, suggesting Russian forces had only infiltrated around Ukrainian positions rather than seized the area. This supported the market's declining probability of Russian capture.
Russian and Ukrainian forces continue targeting logistics in Lyman direction
December 31 drops to 49%5%
Both sides intensified attacks on each other's logistics near Lyman, with Russian forces using drones to complicate Ukrainian supply lines, but Ukrainian forces maintained positions, indicating ongoing contested control rather than Russian capture.
Ongoing fighting and logistics strikes in Lyman area with no confirmed Russian capture
December 31 drops to 48%8%
Both Russian and Ukrainian forces continued targeting logistics and fighting near Lyman, but no confirmed Russian control of the railroad station was reported, keeping market prices subdued.
Russian and Ukrainian forces intensify logistics strikes in Lyman direction
December 31 dips to 50%4%
Both sides targeted each other's logistics near Lyman, with Russian forces using drones to complicate Ukrainian supply lines. This ongoing contest indicated no decisive Russian control over Lyman's railroad station by late May.
Ukrainian forces maintain positions near Lyman amid Russian strikes
December 31 dips to 52%1%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces holding positions in western Lyman, indicating that Russian forces had not fully captured the area. Russian strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure continued but did not translate into control of the railroad station, sustaining market doubts about a Russian capture by year-end.
Deal reached to end strike at largest US commuter railroad
While unrelated to the conflict, this event coincided with a minor market stabilization period, reflecting external factors affecting market liquidity rather than the Lyman situation.
Negotiators reach deal to end Long Island Rail Road strike in the US
December 31 dips to 50%3%
A labor strike affecting a major US commuter rail system ended with a tentative deal, restoring service. While unrelated to the Lyman railroad station, this event coincided with a market price decline and is not causally linked to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian oil refinery and pumping station in Russia, signaling ongoing pressure
December 31 dips to 53%1%
Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, including oil refineries and pumping stations, indicate sustained Ukrainian operational capability, indirectly affecting Russian logistics near Lyman and market confidence.
Ukrainian forces intensify strikes on Russian logistics near Lyman
December 31 drops to 54%13%
Ukrainian drone strikes and artillery targeted Russian logistics and troop concentrations near Lyman, disrupting Russian operations and contributing to market skepticism about imminent Russian capture.
Ukrainian forces repel multiple Russian attempts to advance near Lyman
December 31 rises to 53%2%
On May 17, Ukrainian forces successfully repelled nine Russian attempts to advance in the Lyman area, demonstrating strong defensive capabilities and limiting Russian territorial gains. This defensive success likely contributed to market confidence in Ukraine retaining control of Lyman.
Ukrainian air force reports Russian missile and drone attacks on multiple locations
May 31 dips to 3%1%
Ukrainian forces confirmed Russian missile and drone attacks, with wreckage found at a railway station in the Krasnodar region. This incident may have contributed to market volatility.
Russian forces intensify ground operations near Lyman and Slovyansk
Russian forces increased ground assaults and interdiction efforts in the Slovyansk direction, including areas near Lyman, signaling the start of their spring-summer 2026 offensive. This raised market expectations for potential Russian advances, slightly influencing prices upward.
ISW reports Russian forces have only minimal infiltration in Lyman, no consolidated control
December 31 drops to 54%11%
ISW assessment on May 16 found no evidence of Russian forces holding positions within Lyman or its railroad station, with only 0.06% infiltration observed. This indicated Russia had not captured the station, negatively impacting market confidence in a 'Yes' outcome.
Russian Chief of General Staff Gerasimov makes inaccurate claims of advances near Lyman
December 31 drops to 60%7%
Gerasimov falsely claimed significant Russian territorial gains near Lyman, but ISW assessments showed only limited Russian infiltration and no consolidated control, undermining confidence in Russian capture prospects.
ISW reports Russian generals exaggerate territorial gains near Lyman
December 31 drops to 50%6%
ISW revealed that Russian generals fed the Kremlin false information about territorial gains including Lyman, masking a steep slowdown in advances. This undermined confidence in Russian capture prospects and contributed to market price declines.
Russian claims of seizing 85% of Lyman contradicted by ISW evidence
On May 16, Russian General Gerasimov claimed Russian forces seized about 85% of Lyman, but ISW found no evidence of consolidated Russian control, assessing only minimal infiltration. This discrepancy undermined confidence in Russian capture of Lyman.
Russian General Gerasimov falsely claims 85% control of Lyman, ISW refutes
December 31 dips to 53%2%
Gerasimov claimed Russian forces seized 85% of Lyman, but ISW found only 0.06% Russian presence, indicating severe exaggeration and no actual capture, causing market confidence to decline sharply.
Russian forces intensify attacks near Lyman with multiple assaults
December 31 dips to 52%2%
Mid-May reports show Russian forces launching multiple assaults near Lyman, attempting to break Ukrainian defenses. Despite these efforts, Ukrainian forces continued to hold, reflected in market price fluctuations around this time.
ISW finds no evidence Russian forces hold consolidated positions in Lyman
ISW reported that Russian forces have only infiltrated small parts of Lyman and do not hold consolidated positions, indicating failure to capture the city or railroad station by mid-May 2026.
Gerasimov claims Russian advance toward Shevchenkove near Lyman
December 31 rises to 56%1%
Gerasimov claimed Russian forces advancing westward from Kupyansk toward Shevchenkove, implying progress near Lyman. This raised market hopes but was tempered by ISW assessments showing slow actual advances and no confirmed capture of Lyman station.
ISW assesses Russian forces hold only limited infiltration positions in Lyman, no consolidated control
On May 16, ISW reported that Russian forces only infiltrated about 0.06% of Lyman and do not hold consolidated positions, indicating no capture of the railroad station and sustaining market skepticism about a near-term Russian capture.
Gerasimov states 85 % of Lyman under Russian control
December 31 rises to 52%2%
Gen. Gerasimov again claimed 85 % of Lyman captured; the market swung back up for the “December 31” outcome as traders weighed the renewed assertion.
Russian General Staff again exaggerates advances near Lyman and Kupiansk
December 31 dips to 50%4%
Russian General Staff chief Gerasimov falsely claimed advances near Lyman and other settlements, but ISW confirmed only minimal Russian control, maintaining skepticism about Russian capture prospects.
ISW reports no evidence of Russian control within Lyman railroad station area
ISW assessment on May 16 found no evidence that Russian forces hold positions within Lyman or the railroad station area, with only minimal infiltration detected, indicating Ukrainian control remained intact.
Gerasimov falsely claims significant Russian advances near Lyman and Kupiansk
December 31 drops to 48%7%
Russian General Gerasimov claimed Russian forces captured 85% of Lyman and other settlements, but ISW data showed minimal Russian presence, undermining credibility of Russian claims and lowering market confidence.
Ukrainian staff says Russian forces still 2‑4 km from Lyman suburbs
June 30 plunges to 23%16%
The staff reported Russian forces were only 2‑4 km from key Lyman suburbs, underscoring a lack of progress and causing the “June 30” price to slip to 23 % on 17‑May.
ISW refutes Russian claims of advances in Kharkiv region
December 31 plunges to 48%38%
ISW reported that Russian General Valery Gerasimov falsely claimed Russian forces had captured 50% of Lyman and other settlements, but ISW data showed only 0.06% of Lyman was under Russian control, causing a significant price drop.
Russian General Staff chief falsely claims over 85% control of Lyman
December 31 drops to 50%8%
Valery Gerasimov again exaggerated Russian control near Lyman, claiming over 85% control, while ISW and other sources reported only minor Russian presence. This ongoing misinformation campaign contributed to market skepticism and price declines for near-term capture outcomes.
Gerasimov claims 85 % of Lyman seized during May 16 briefing
Gerasimov again announced that Russian forces had captured 85 % of Lyman during a meeting with the Western Grouping. The market reacted with a modest rise (from 13 % to 13 % – stabilising) but the overall trend remained downward, confirming diminishing belief in a capture.
Russian Defense Minister outlines plans to accelerate offensive tempo
December 31 jumps to 67%8%
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov announced plans to preserve and accelerate the tempo of the offensive in Donetsk and other regions, including efforts to drive Ukrainian forces from parts of Zaporizhzhia. This renewed military focus supported moderate market confidence in a December 31 capture of Lyman.
Russian forces advance near Lyman's outskirts, geolocated footage confirms
Geolocated footage showed Russian advances in eastern Ridkodub and central Torske near Lyman, raising market hopes and stabilizing prices around 50-54%.
Russian military claims local successes near Lyman but ISW reports Ukrainian control persists
December 31 dips to 54%4%
Despite Russian claims of local successes on approaches to Lyman around mid-May, ISW and other sources reported Ukrainian forces holding key positions and contesting Russian advances, indicating Russia had not captured the Lyman railroad station by this time.
Market sentiment declines amid stalled peace talks and ongoing Russian offensives
December 31 drops to 48%6%
As peace talks showed limited progress and Russian military pressure continued, market confidence in Russia capturing Lyman by year-end decreased, reflected in a price drop to around 48%.
Russian command shifts main offensive focus from Lyman to Kostyantynivka
December 31 drops to 48%8%
After stalled advances around Lyman and failure to seize key objectives, Russian military command reprioritized its offensive to focus on Kostyantynivka. This shift indicated diminished Russian prospects for capturing Lyman in the near term, impacting market confidence in a December 31 capture.
ISW map shows Lyman still under Ukrainian control
The latest Institute for the Study of War map, released on May 15, confirmed that the Lyman railroad station remained under Ukrainian control, solidifying the market’s final move to low ‘Yes’ probabilities across all outcomes.
ISW confirms Russian forces still lack control of Lyman railway station
May 31 drops to 2%5%
A late‑May ISW bulletin confirmed that Russian forces had not seized the Lyman railway station and were on the defensive, driving the “May 31” price down further from 7 % to 2 %.
U.S. and Russia agree to reestablish military-to-military dialogue
December 31 rises to 52%2%
Senior officials from the U.S. and Russia agreed to reestablish high-level military dialogue after the New START treaty expired, signaling potential for renewed communication channels.
Russia continues to face resistance in eastern Ukraine
June 30 drops to 7%9%
Continued reports of Ukrainian defensive operations and lack of significant Russian territorial gains in the analysis window led to a further decline in the June 30 outcome.
Ukrainian drone strike hits Russian oil depot, prompting Russian retaliation
May 31 plunges to 2%24%
A high‑profile Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian oil depot heightened tensions and led to a sharp decline in the May‑31 odds as traders expected Russian focus to shift away from Lyman.
ISW reports no confirmed Russian advances in Lyman area, market confidence collapses
May 31 dips to 2%4%
By mid-May, ISW assessments continued to show no confirmed Russian control of Lyman railroad station, leading to a sharp drop in market prices for capture by May 31 and June 30, reflecting diminished expectations for near-term capture.
Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian logistics sites intensify
May 31 drops to 2%10%
A surge in Ukrainian deep‑strike drone operations against Russian supply lines increased the perceived risk of a Russian counter‑offensive, causing a slight dip in the May‑31 price from 12% to 2% as traders reassessed the likelihood of a Russian capture.
Ukrainian forces push back Russian advances near Lyman
December 31 drops to 49%5%
Ukrainian forces repelled Russian infiltration missions near Lyman, undermining Russian momentum and contributing to market skepticism.
Russian drone attack on Ukrainian railway station in Krasnodar region
December 31 jumps to 53%5%
Russia launched a drone attack on a railway station in the Krasnodar region, with drone wreckage falling on the station and causing injuries, demonstrating Russian capability to strike Ukrainian infrastructure.
Market reacts to reports of stalled Russian advances near Lyman
December 31 jumps to 48%6%
Reports indicated that Russian forces were unable to secure decisive gains near Lyman, leading to a drop in market prices for Russian capture by December 31 and June 30. The market reflected growing skepticism about Russian success by mid-May.
Russian military command exaggerates territorial gains near Lyman
May 31 drops to 1%5%
Russian claims of advances were contradicted by ISW and Ukrainian sources showing minimal Russian control near Lyman, leading to a further decline in market confidence for capture by May 31.
Market confidence in Russian capture of Lyman drops to near zero amid persistent Ukrainian defense
May 31 dips to 1%1%
Market prices for Russian capture by May 31 fell sharply to 1%, reflecting reports of strong Ukrainian resistance and lack of Russian territorial gains at the Lyman railroad station.
ISW assesses Russian spring-summer 2026 offensive produced zero tactically significant gains
ISW concluded that Russia's spring-summer 2026 offensive produced zero tactically significant gains since launching no later than 17 March, and that Russian forces have lost ground since 1 March. This comprehensive assessment of Russian military failure likely contributed to the market's continued price stability at 54% for the December 31 outcome.
Russian drone strike on Dnipro kills miners, raises security concerns
May 31 dips to 2%3%
A high‑profile Russian drone attack in Dnipro heightened security concerns and shifted market focus away from Lyman, contributing to the May 31 price falling to a low of 2% that day.
Russian drone strike kills 12 miners in Dnipro, heightening frontline fighting
The deadly drone attack underscored Russia’s intensified use of air power near the front, reducing confidence in a negotiated settlement and pushing the May‑31 price down to 2% as the market saw little chance of a Russian capture of Lyman before year‑end.
Russian advances stall near Slovyansk and Lyman, shifting focus to Kostyantynivka
December 31 drops to 49%5%
Russian forces failed to make significant progress in the Lyman area and Slovyansk, leading to a strategic shift of their main offensive effort towards Kostyantynivka. This diminished the likelihood of capturing Lyman's railroad station by the end of 2025, reflected in market price declines.
Russian military command reallocates forces to Lyman direction
December 31 dips to 53%1%
A company from the Russian 423rd Motorized Rifle Regiment was attached to the 144th Motorized Rifle Division in the Lyman direction, indicating Russian efforts to reinforce operations near Lyman. However, no significant territorial gains were reported, maintaining uncertainty about capture prospects.
Russian military command reinforces Lyman direction amid declining advances
December 31 dips to 50%4%
Reports indicated Russian command attached additional forces to the Lyman direction, but overall Russian advances declined due to Ukrainian strikes and recruitment issues, reducing market confidence in imminent capture.
Reports of Ukrainian defensive success near Lyman cause market confidence to drop
December 31 drops to 40%13%
On May 12, news of strong Ukrainian defense and lack of Russian territorial gains near Lyman led to a market confidence low of 40%, reflecting doubts about Russia capturing the station by year-end.
ISW Reports Russia Suffered Net Loss of Territory in April 2026 Amid Stalled Advances
December 31 drops to 40%14%
The ISW reported that Russia suffered a net loss of territory in April 2026 for the first time in months, highlighting the severe decline in the rate of Russian advances.
Russian officials warn of extending gains if talks fail
December 31 drops to 50%5%
Putin’s warning that Russia would push further if peace talks stalled revived concerns of a Lyman capture, nudging the December‑31 price up from 55% to 50% before the market closed the day.
Ukrainian counteroffensive stalls Russian advances near Lyman
December 31 drops to 53%5%
Reports indicated that Ukrainian counteroffensive efforts slowed Russian progress around Lyman, reducing market confidence in a Russian capture by year-end, reflected in a price drop to 53%.
Russian general killed by car bomb in Moscow, investigators suspect Ukraine
December 31 dips to 50%4%
A high-ranking Russian general was killed by a car bomb in Moscow, with investigators suspecting Ukrainian involvement, reflecting ongoing covert conflict and instability that likely dampened market confidence in Russian advances including Lyman.
Russian attacks on Ukraine’s power plants cause severe electricity shortages
December 31 drops to 49%5%
Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure intensified, exacerbating shortages and increasing pressure on Ukraine’s defenses. This heightened conflict intensity near contested areas like Lyman, affecting market perceptions of control dynamics.
European allies announce new security guarantees for Ukraine
May 31 drops to 3%9%
The coalition of the willing pledged extensive security guarantees, reducing expectations that Russia would secure Lyman before year‑end, pushing the May 31 price down to single digits.
Russian forces advance near Lyman amid ongoing shelling and drone strikes
Russian milbloggers reported advances south of Sosnove and east of Lyman, sustaining market optimism and stabilizing prices around 54-54%.
Ukraine’s allies agree on multilayered security guarantees amid ongoing conflict
December 31 drops to 50%5%
International support for Ukraine strengthened with commitments to defense guarantees if a peace deal is reached, reinforcing Ukrainian resolve and reducing market confidence in Russian capture of Lyman by near-term dates.
Ukrainian forces advance in Slavyansk direction while Russian attempts near Lyman stall
Ukrainian troops advanced in the Slavyansk direction, with Russian forces making limited advances near Lyman but failing to seize new ground, indicating continued Ukrainian control around Lyman.
Russian Forces Make Latest Advances in Donetsk Oblast Near Lyman
December 31 jumps to 66%11%
Russian forces reported new advances near Lyman, renewing market hopes for eventual capture despite ongoing Ukrainian resistance.
Ukrainian forces intensify counterattacks and clear Russian infiltrators near Lyman
June 30 plunges to 19%21%
Reports indicated Ukrainian troops cleared villages southwest of Lyman and repelled Russian assaults, maintaining control over key areas including the railroad station. This led to a further decline in market confidence for Russian capture by June 30.
Russian forces claim seizure of Kryva Luka near Slovyansk, no evidence of Lyman capture
Russian Ministry of Defense and milbloggers claimed seizure of Kryva Luka east of Slovyansk, but ISW reported no granular evidence of Russian control changes in Lyman. Ukrainian forces continued to advance in nearby areas, maintaining pressure on Russian positions.
U.S. President Trump pushes for accelerated peace negotiations
December 31 drops to 55%7%
Trump’s intensified diplomatic push raised hopes of a negotiated settlement, which would count as a ‘Yes’ if Russia gained control, causing a modest rise in the December‑31 price from 62% to 55% as traders priced in a possible settlement outcome.
Russian forces intensify artillery and drone strikes in eastern Ukraine
December 31 rises to 55%1%
Increased Russian bombardment aimed at weakening Ukrainian defenses suggested preparations for renewed ground offensives, temporarily boosting market expectations for Russian capture of Lyman.
Sustained Russian attacks near Lyman met with Ukrainian resistance
June 30 dips to 6%4%
Russian forces launched multiple attacks near Lyman, but Ukrainian forces successfully repelled many assaults, maintaining defensive positions and preventing Russian capture, contributing to market price declines for June 30 capture.
Ukrainian forces repel multiple Russian assaults near Lyman
December 31 dips to 54%1%
Ukrainian forces repelled 13 Russian attempts to advance in areas including Lyman, demonstrating strong defense and preventing Russian capture of key positions. This defensive success further reduced market confidence in Russian capture by year-end.
Russian forces conduct assaults near Lyman but face Ukrainian resistance
December 31 drops to 54%12%
Russian forces struck Ukrainian positions near Lyman and the Siversk-Lyman highway, but Ukrainian forces continued to hold and counterattack, indicating a stalemate and limiting Russian advances toward capturing Lyman.
Russian forces intensify strikes near Lyman amid infiltration reports
December 31 drops to 57%10%
Geolocated footage showed Russian strikes near Lyman and infiltration attempts, indicating ongoing offensive efforts. This maintained some market support for a December 31 capture but also reflected a contested battlefield with Ukrainian resistance.
Russian missile attack flattens Kyiv apartment building amid ongoing conflict
December 31 dips to 54%2%
A deadly Russian missile strike on a Kyiv apartment building killed 24 people, highlighting the ongoing intensity of the conflict and the challenges Ukraine faces, which may influence market perceptions of Russian military pressure including around Lyman.
Kremlin Demands Ukrainian Withdrawal from Donetsk Oblast as Precondition for Ceasefire
December 31 rises to 55%2%
Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov stated that further peace talks make no sense unless Ukraine withdraws from unoccupied Donetsk Oblast, highlighting the diplomatic stalemate over Lyman's territory.
Russian infantry infiltrates Lyman, encirclement operation develops
December 31 jumps to 71%10%
Russian infantry continued infiltrating Lyman's central areas, with Guards 'West' units developing an operation to encircle the Ukrainian garrison from the flanks. This intensified fighting raised market hopes for a Russian capture.
Ukrainian Forces Advance Near Dibrova South of Lyman
December 31 dips to 54%2%
Geolocated footage showed Russian forces targeting Ukrainian positions in northern Dibrova, confirming recent Ukrainian advances just south of Lyman.
Russian forces claim seizure of Pryshyb northwest of Lyman
December 31 drops to 54%13%
On May 7, Russian milbloggers and sources claimed Russian forces seized Pryshyb, northwest of Lyman, signaling continued Russian offensive efforts in the Lyman direction. Despite these claims, ISW assessments indicated no confirmed capture of Lyman station, contributing to market price decline.
US-brokered peace talks resume amid ongoing front-line fighting
December 31 rises to 54%1%
Renewed peace talks in Abu Dhabi occurred alongside continued fighting and drone attacks, maintaining uncertainty about territorial control including Lyman, contributing to market price volatility.
Russian forces conduct infiltration mission near Lyman but make no confirmed advances
June 30 drops to 11%5%
Russian infiltration efforts near Lyman did not yield significant territorial gains, reflecting stalled offensive momentum and contributing to a decline in market confidence for capture by June 30.
Russian forces conduct infiltration missions near Lyman without confirmed advances
December 31 dips to 55%1%
On May 4, Russian forces conducted infiltration missions near Lyman but failed to make confirmed territorial gains, maintaining uncertainty about control of the railroad station.
Russian infiltration mission near Lyman fails to make confirmed advances
December 31 dips to 58%4%
Russian forces conducted an infiltration mission southeast of Lyman but did not achieve confirmed territorial gains. Ukrainian forces struck Russian positions along the Donetska Railway, indicating ongoing resistance and stalling of Russian advances.
Russian infiltration mission near Lyman fails to make confirmed advances
June 30 plunges to 19%30%
Russian forces conducted infiltration missions near Lyman but did not achieve confirmed territorial gains, reinforcing Ukrainian control and reducing market confidence in Russian capture by June 30.
Russian Infiltration Mission Along Donetska Railway Near Lyman Repelled
December 31 dips to 54%2%
A Russian infiltration attempt along the critical railway line southeast of Lyman was detected and struck by Ukrainian forces, highlighting Russia's continued failure to secure the railway infrastructure.
Ukrainian forces conduct strikes and counterattacks near Lyman, Russian advances stall
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian strikes on Russian positions southeast of Lyman and counterattacks in the Slovyansk direction. Russian forces failed to make tactically significant gains, reinforcing the view that Russia would not capture the Lyman railroad station soon.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions near Lyman, maintaining control
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions along the Donetska Railway southeast of Lyman, with Ukrainian forces maintaining positions and conducting counterattacks, indicating Russia had not captured the railroad station.
Sustained Ukrainian resistance limits Russian territorial gains near Lyman
December 31 drops to 53%10%
Continued Ukrainian defense and counterattacks around Lyman prevented Russian forces from capturing key infrastructure, causing market prices to decline further.
Ukrainian drones hit Russian position on Donetska Railway near Lyman
December 31 dips to 53%3%
USF struck a Russian position on the Donetska Railway southeast of Lyman, showing Ukrainian ability to interdict supply lines and contributing to a price decline to 53 % on 6‑May.
Russian Infiltration Mission Southeast of Lyman Fails to Make Confirmed Advances
December 31 dips to 54%2%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions along the Donetska Railway southeast of Lyman, confirming that Russian infiltration attempts did not result in advances.
No evidence of Russian control over Lyman railroad station in ISW maps
December 31 dips to 54%2%
ISW maps continued to show the Lyman railroad station area not shaded red, indicating no Russian control. This reinforced market skepticism, pushing the price down to 54% for Russian capture by December 31, 2025.
Russian forces conduct infiltration near Lyman but no confirmed advances
December 31 dips to 50%4%
Russian forces conducted infiltration missions southeast of Lyman but ISW reported no confirmed territorial gains or control of the railroad station, indicating continued Ukrainian control and resistance.
Russian infiltration missions near Lyman fail to yield advances
Russian forces conducted infiltration missions near Lyman but did not make confirmed advances, while Ukrainian forces struck Russian positions, reinforcing the view that Russia had not captured Lyman by early May 2026.
Russian forces claim advance northwest of Lyman but no confirmed capture of station
December 31 dips to 54%4%
In early May, Russian milbloggers claimed advances northwest of Lyman, but ISW and Ukrainian sources reported infiltration missions without confirmed territorial gains. Ukrainian forces continued striking Russian positions, maintaining control of Lyman and its railroad station, reflected in market price near 54%.
Trump and Zelenskyy meet to discuss Ukraine security and peace plan
May 31 dips to 3%4%
The meeting between U.S. President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy focused on security guarantees and territorial issues, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts that may delay or complicate Russian territorial gains including Lyman. Market prices for earlier capture dates declined further.
Russian forces claim advances northwest of Lyman amid ongoing fighting
December 31 plunges to 54%25%
Russian milbloggers claimed advances to the Pryshyb-Shandryholove road northwest of Lyman, but ISW could not verify significant territorial gains, reflecting continued contested control and uncertainty about Russian capture of Lyman.
Russian forces advance northwest of Lyman but no capture of railroad station
December 31 dips to 54%4%
Russian milbloggers claimed advances northwest of Lyman, but ISW assessments showed ongoing Ukrainian strikes and infiltration missions, with no confirmed Russian control of the Lyman railroad station.
Russian forces attempt advances near Lyman but face Ukrainian strikes
Russian forces conducted infiltration missions and attempted to advance northwest of Lyman, but Ukrainian forces struck Russian positions in eastern Lyman and surrounding areas, indicating contested control and hindering Russian progress.
Russian forces conduct infiltration missions northwest of Lyman amid ongoing fighting
December 31 drops to 56%7%
Russian forces advanced to roads northwest of Lyman and conducted infiltration missions, but Ukrainian strikes and counterattacks limited consolidation, reflecting a contested battlefield and contributing to market skepticism.
Russian forces attack near Lyman but make no advances
December 31 dips to 62%4%
Russian forces concentrated attacks northwest of Lyman but failed to advance, with Ukrainian forces maintaining control. This confirmed the stalemate around Lyman and undermined Russian claims of territorial gains, contributing to market price decline.
Russian forces launch multiple attacks near Lyman, Ukrainian defenders repel advances
December 31 dips to 55%2%
Russian forces conducted numerous assaults near Lyman, but Ukrainian defenders repelled multiple attempts to advance, maintaining control of the area and limiting Russian capture prospects, reflected in stable market prices.
ISW reports Russian forces suffered net territorial losses near Lyman in April 2026
December 31 dips to 54%4%
On May 2, ISW reported that Russian forces lost control of territory in the Lyman area during April 2026, marking a net loss for the first time since August 2024. This negative development for Russian advances likely pressured market prices downward.
Russia scales up attacks on energy infrastructure
December 31 plunges to 57%23%
Renewed Russian strikes on energy facilities signaled a shift in strategy, potentially diverting resources away from ground offensives in the Lyman area.
Russian forces intensify attacks northwest of Lyman but make no advances
December 31 rises to 66%4%
Russian forces concentrated attacks northwest of Lyman and east of Slovyansk on May 2 but did not advance, with Ukrainian forces repelling assaults and maintaining control of key terrain including the railroad station area.
Russian forces conduct attacks northwest of Lyman but make no advances
December 31 drops to 58%5%
On May 2, Russian forces concentrated attacks northwest of Lyman but did not advance, with ISW noting infiltration tactics rather than territorial gains. This indicated limited Russian progress toward capturing Lyman, contributing to market skepticism about a Russian capture by year-end.
ISW reports Russian infiltration but no significant territorial gains near Lyman
December 31 dips to 54%4%
ISW noted Russian infiltration missions west of Lyman but no confirmed advances or control gains, indicating ongoing contested fighting but no capture of key positions like the Lyman railroad station, contributing to market price decline.
Russia claims Ukrainian drones attacked Putin's residence in Novgorod
December 31 dips to 54%2%
Russia accused Ukraine of launching a drone attack on Putin's official residence, prompting threats from Russian officials and hardening Russia's negotiating position. This disinformation effort may have influenced market perceptions of Russian gains.
Ukrainian Defenders Repel 13 Russian Assaults in the Lyman Direction
December 31 drops to 57%10%
Ukrainian forces successfully repelled 13 attempts by Russian invaders to advance in key settlements around Lyman, including Ozerne, Druzhliubivka, and Drobysheve.
ISW reports Russian forces striking Ukrainian positions west of Lyman but no confirmed capture
ISW observed Russian drone strikes west of Lyman and infiltration missions but no confirmed control of Lyman railroad station, indicating ongoing contested status and supporting market price stabilization around 54%.
Russian forces conduct offensive operations northwest of Lyman but make no advances
December 31 drops to 56%6%
On May 2, Russian forces focused attacks northwest of Lyman but failed to advance, signaling stalled progress in capturing key positions near the railroad station. This likely contributed to a slight market decline in confidence for the December 31 outcome.
ISW Reports Net Loss of Russian-Controlled Territory in April 2026
December 31 drops to 54%9%
ISW assessed that Russian forces suffered a net loss of territory in April for the first time since August 2024, significantly lowering the probability of Russia capturing Lyman by the end of the year.
Russian diplomatic push stalls, focus returns to battlefield
May 31 dips to 9%2%
As diplomatic efforts stalled, Russian attention shifted back to front‑line operations, causing a modest rebound in the May 31 price from 11% to 9% as traders speculated a renewed push toward Lyman.
Ukrainian forces recapture territory near Lyman
May 31 drops to 12%13%
Reports that Ukrainian troops reclaimed several square kilometres near Lyman reduced expectations of a Russian capture, pulling the May‑31 price down from 25% to 12% and the December‑31 price from 78% to 62%.
Trump hosts Zelenskyy in Florida to discuss security guarantees and peace plan
December 31 drops to 54%8%
U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met to discuss security guarantees and a 20-point peace plan, raising hopes for a diplomatic resolution but with unresolved territorial issues, leading to mixed market reactions.
Continued fighting near Lyman with no decisive Russian control reported
May 31 dips to 3%4%
Reports indicated ongoing clashes and no clear Russian capture of Lyman railroad station, contributing to a steady decline in market confidence for Russian control by May 31.
Ukraine faces internal political pressure amid corruption scandal and external military threats
December 31 dips to 62%1%
President Zelenskyy confronted a major corruption scandal while Russia intensified attacks, increasing uncertainty about Ukraine's stability and resilience, which influenced market sentiment downward.
Russian forces conduct infiltration missions near Lyman
June 30 plunges to 52%21%
Russian forces conducted infiltration missions in the Slovyansk and Lyman directions but failed to make confirmed advances, maintaining a stalemate and contributing to market price declines for June 30 outcome.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions southeast of Lyman after infiltration mission
December 31 dips to 54%4%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions near Lyman following a Russian infiltration mission, indicating ongoing contested control and active Ukrainian resistance. This maintained uncertainty and kept market prices moderate.
Russian forces continue infiltration and offensive operations near Lyman
December 31 drops to 58%7%
ISW reported ongoing Russian infiltration missions and offensive operations in the Lyman direction, with Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions, indicating a stalemate and limited Russian territorial gains, leading to market price declines in May.
Ukrainian forces advance near Lyman, Russian forces claim minor gains east of Slovyansk
December 31 dips to 58%2%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian advances south of Kolodyazi near Lyman, while Russian milbloggers claimed seizure of nearby Zakitne, indicating ongoing contested fighting but no confirmed capture of Lyman railroad station.
No confirmed Russian capture of Lyman railroad station by end of April 2026
December 31 dips to 60%4%
By April 30, 2026, ISW assessments and geolocated footage indicated that Russian forces had not captured the Lyman railroad station, with Ukrainian forces holding key positions and repelling Russian advances, leading to market price settling at 60%.
Ukrainian Forces Advance Northeast of Lyman Near Kolodyazi
December 31 dips to 63%3%
Geolocated footage confirmed that Ukrainian forces made successful localized advances northeast of Lyman, further securing the defensive perimeter around the city.
Russian forces claim limited gains in Donetsk but Ukrainian officials dispute
Kremlin video claiming capture of nearby settlements was met with Ukrainian denial, creating uncertainty and prompting a modest price dip for the May‑31 contract from 25% to 12% as traders reassessed capture prospects.
Ukrainian forces repel Russian advances near Lyman station
December 31 plunges to 65%15%
Following the previous day's optimism, Ukrainian counterattacks stalled Russian progress near the Lyman railroad station, leading to a sharp market drop from 80% to 65%. This indicated skepticism about Russia's ability to capture the station soon.
Ukrainian drone strike hits Russian oil depot in Volgograd
December 31 jumps to 78%5%
A high‑profile Ukrainian drone attack on Russian energy infrastructure heightened Russian retaliation risk, briefly raising the December‑31 price from 73% to 78% as analysts feared a broader Russian push.
Reports of Russian advances near Lyman raise hopes of imminent capture
December 31 jumps to 80%14%
On April 28, news emerged suggesting Russian forces were making progress towards capturing the Lyman railroad station, causing market confidence to spike to 66-80%. This optimism was based on battlefield reports indicating Russian territorial gains in the area.
Russian forces launch multiple attacks near Lyman but fail to advance
December 31 dips to 65%1%
On April 28, Russian forces attempted 13 times to break through Ukrainian defenses toward Lyman and nearby settlements but did not achieve significant territorial gains, maintaining the status quo around the railroad station.
Ukrainian counter‑attacks in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia
May 31 dips to 11%1%
Successful Ukrainian counter‑offensives in nearby regions weakened Russian momentum, pushing the May 31 price down further from 12% to 11% as the prospect of capturing Lyman dimmed.
Mixed reports on control of Lyman railroad station amid ongoing conflict
December 31 jumps to 71%7%
Conflicting information about control of the Lyman railroad station led to price fluctuations, with a brief peak at 71% reflecting optimism about Russian control.
Russian advances around Lyman stall, focus shifts to Kostyantynivka
December 31 dips to 63%4%
Russian forces failed to achieve significant gains around Lyman and shifted their main offensive efforts to Kostyantynivka, reducing the likelihood of capturing Lyman railroad station soon.
ISW reports no confirmed Russian capture of Lyman railroad station
December 31 rises to 64%3%
ISW assessments continued to show no confirmed Russian control of the Lyman railroad station, reinforcing market doubts about imminent capture and contributing to price declines for short-term outcomes.
Small group clashes near Lyman reported
May 31 plunges to 1%24%
Pravda UK reported small-scale fighting near Lyman with Ukrainian formations infiltrating Russian positions, indicating ongoing but limited combat operations without significant territorial changes.
Fierce small group clashes near Lyman with high Ukrainian activity and Russian attacks on outskirts
December 31 dips to 60%4%
Reports indicated intense fighting near Lyman with Ukrainian assault groups infiltrating Russian positions and Russian forces attacking the southeastern outskirts. The terrain limited heavy armor use, favoring infantry and drone operations, maintaining a contested status around Lyman.
Russian forces intensify strikes on Ukrainian rail infrastructure including stations
December 31 rises to 65%4%
ISW reported increased Russian strikes on Ukrainian railway infrastructure in 2026, damaging multiple train stations and complicating logistics, reflecting ongoing contested control around Lyman and contributing to market uncertainty.
Russian Chief of General Staff claims Luhansk Oblast fully seized including Lyman area
December 31 plunges to 63%16%
Russian General Valery Gerasimov claimed Russian forces had seized 70% of Lyman and the Luhansk Oblast, but ISW assessments found no evidence of Russian control over Lyman city or the railroad station. This discrepancy caused market uncertainty and price declines.
Ukrainian partisans sabotage Russian railroad logistics near Lyman
December 31 rises to 65%2%
Ukrainian partisan groups disabled railway infrastructure in occupied Luhansk Oblast, disrupting Russian logistics supporting operations in the Lyman direction. This hindered Russian supply lines and offensive capabilities, reducing chances of capturing Lyman soon.
Russian forces shell Ukrainian positions northeast of Lyman amid mechanized assault preparations
December 31 dips to 63%1%
Russian forces concentrated equipment for mechanized assault near Lyman and shelled Ukrainian positions, indicating ongoing offensive efforts but no confirmed capture, causing market uncertainty.
Russian forces prepare mechanized assault and strike Ukrainian logistics near Lyman
December 31 rises to 63%2%
Russian forces concentrated equipment for a mechanized assault near Lyman and continued strikes on Ukrainian logistics routes, but ISW and Ukrainian reports indicated no capture of Lyman or its railroad station.
Ukrainian forces continue strikes and counterattacks near Lyman
December 31 drops to 58%8%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian strikes on Russian positions near Lyman and infiltration missions, indicating ongoing Ukrainian resistance and contested control, contributing to market uncertainty and price decline.
Russian sabotage campaign strains European security resources
December 31 dips to 63%1%
Ongoing Russian sabotage operations across Europe, including attacks on railways and infrastructure, aimed to undermine support for Ukraine and divert resources, reflecting Russia's hybrid warfare strategy and affecting market perceptions of conflict dynamics.
Russian forces launch multiple attacks toward Lyman but face strong Ukrainian resistance
December 31 drops to 54%11%
Russian forces attempted several times to break through Ukrainian defenses near Lyman and surrounding settlements, but Ukrainian defenders repelled these assaults. This ongoing stalemate contributed to market price declines reflecting doubts about Russian capture by year-end.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions near Lyman, preparing for counterattacks
December 31 drops to 68%13%
Ukrainian brigade reported targeting Russian logistics and preparing counterattacks in the Lyman direction, indicating active Ukrainian resistance and complicating Russian efforts to capture the area, which pressured market prices downward.
U.S. and European allies agree on multilayered security guarantees for Ukraine
A major diplomatic breakthrough in Paris signaled stronger Western support for Kyiv, lowering expectations that Russia could capture Lyman and causing the December‑31 price to fall from 79% to 60% over the week.
ISW reports Russian forces prepping mechanised assault near Lyman
December 31 drops to 61%6%
ISW published an assessment showing Russian forces shelling positions northeast of Lyman and preparing a mechanised assault. The report revived market optimism that Russia could soon capture the Lyman rail hub, pushing the “December 31” price up from 67 % to 61 % on 2024‑04‑23.
Russian forces attempt multiple breakthroughs near Lyman but repelled
December 31 drops to 65%14%
In late April, Russian forces launched several attacks near Lyman but Ukrainian defenders repelled these attempts, indicating no decisive Russian control of the area. This likely contributed to a market price decline from earlier highs.
European nations commit to troops in Ukraine as part of 'milestone' peace talks in Paris
December 31 jumps to 66%6%
European countries, including the UK and France, committed to sending troops to Ukraine to safeguard any future peace deal, signaling strong Western support for Ukraine and reducing market expectations of Russian territorial gains such as Lyman by year-end.
ISW says Russia only massing for assault, no Lyman gains
December 31 surges to 79%18%
ISW’s follow‑up assessment clarified that Russian forces were only concentrating equipment and continuing strikes, not holding Lyman. The correction caused the “December 31” probability to tumble.
ISW assesses Russian spring-summer 2026 offensive produced zero tactically significant gains
May 31 dips to 3%3%
ISW concluded that Russia's spring-summer 2026 offensive produced zero tactically significant gains since launching no later than 17 March, and that Russian forces have lost ground since 1 March. This major assessment shift significantly impacted market pricing.
Russian Chief of General Staff claims 70% of Lyman seized, contradicted by ISW
December 31 drops to 61%7%
Russian official statements claimed significant control over Lyman, but ISW found no evidence of such gains, highlighting misinformation and contributing to market skepticism about Russian capture prospects.
Russian forces attempt multiple breakthroughs near Lyman amid ongoing clashes
December 31 drops to 54%9%
On April 22, Russian troops attempted several times to break through Ukrainian defenses near Lyman, but Ukrainian defenders repelled these attacks, maintaining control of the area. This contributed to a dip in market confidence for near-term capture.
ISW finds Russian claims of Lyman control contradicted by evidence; Gerasimov claims 70% of Lyman seized
December 31 drops to 48%12%
ISW found no evidence Russian forces had seized any of Lyman, directly contradicting Russian claims that Gerasimov stated 70% of Lyman was seized. This major discrepancy between Russian claims and ISW assessment caused significant price declines across all outcomes.
Gerasimov Claims 70% of Lyman Seized — ISW Finds No Evidence of Russian Control
Russian Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov claimed 70% of Lyman was seized, but ISW found no evidence of Russian control, causing a sharp price drop to 13%.
Ukraine launches counterattacks in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions
December 31 rises to 63%2%
Ukraine's successful counterattacks forced Russia to divert resources, reducing pressure on Lyman and lowering market confidence in Russian capture by mid-2026.
Russia's Chief of the General Staff claims 70% of Lyman seized — ISW finds no evidence
June 30 drops to 13%9%
General Valery Gerasimov claimed Russian forces had seized 70% of Lyman, but ISW found no evidence to support this claim, contradicting Russian sources. This direct contradiction between Russian claims and ISW assessment likely caused the market's significant price decline from 80% to 13% for the June 30 outcome.
Russia's Chief of General Staff claims 70% of Lyman seized — ISW finds no evidence
June 30 drops to 14%7%
Russian General Valery Gerasimov claimed 70% of Lyman seized, but ISW found no evidence of Russian control, contradicting Russian claims. This significant discrepancy contributed to market price drops.
ISW finds Russian claims of Lyman gains inconsistent with evidence
May 31 plunges to 2%23%
ISW reported that Russian claims of 70% Lyman seizure were inconsistent with ISW's assessment of 0% Russian control, highlighting a significant gap between Russian claims and verified control. This contributed to market skepticism.
ISW map shows Russian pull‑back from Lyman amid Ukrainian counter‑offensive
May 31 drops to 12%13%
ISW’s mid‑April map showed Russian forces pulling back from Lyman as Ukrainian counter‑attacks intensified, prompting the “May 31” price to tumble from 25 % to 12 % the same day.
Russian MoD map shows Lyman station shaded red, later deemed inaccurate
December 31 drops to 61%6%
The Russian MoD published a map showing red shading over Lyman rail station, but ISW and DeepStateMap later declared the map erroneous. The mismatch caused a temporary dip (price from 67 % to 61 % on April 22).
Russian drone attack kills 3 and wounds children in Ukraine
December 31 drops to 60%6%
A heavy Russian drone bombardment of Odesa killed civilians including children, highlighting ongoing Russian aggression and the humanitarian toll, which contributed to declining market confidence in Russia's ability to capture Lyman by year-end.
ISW reports ongoing fighting near Lyman with Russian advances contested
June 30 plunges to 16%15%
ISW reported active fighting near Lyman with Russian forces advancing near surrounding settlements but Ukrainian forces holding tactical initiative. The contested nature of control around Lyman kept market prices fluctuating, reflecting uncertainty about a full Russian capture by May and June deadlines.
Zelenskyy says US gave June deadline for peace deal
May 31 drops to 12%13%
The announcement of a June deadline for a peace deal significantly reduced the likelihood of a military capture of Lyman by December, shifting market focus.
Russian and Ukrainian forces clash in Slovyansk-Lyman direction with ongoing counterattacks
December 31 dips to 58%3%
On April 22, Russian forces conducted offensive operations while Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Lyman, maintaining a contested frontline. This ongoing fighting without decisive Russian capture contributed to market uncertainty and a slight price decline.
Russian drone strike kills at least 12 mineworkers in Dnipro
June 30 plunges to 17%38%
A Russian drone strike killed civilians in Dnipro, escalating hostilities and complicating peace talks. This violence contributed to market uncertainty and a decline in confidence for Russian capture by June 30 and May 31.
Ukraine’s allies agree on multilayered security guarantees in peace proposal
June 30 drops to 16%12%
Ukraine’s allies announced progress on defense guarantees contingent on a peace deal, signaling international support for Ukraine’s defense and potentially limiting Russian advances. This development influenced market sentiment negatively for Russian capture prospects by mid-year.
Ukraine faces growing internal and external pressures amid stalled peace talks
May 31 drops to 12%13%
Reports highlighted Ukraine's political and military challenges, including corruption scandals and stalled negotiations with Russia, increasing uncertainty about the conflict's trajectory and Russia's ability to capture Lyman. Market prices for near-term capture dates dropped sharply.
Russian forces pause offensive near Lyman amid stalled talks
May 31 drops to 12%13%
Reports that Russian troops halted advances near Lyman as peace negotiations stalled led to a sharp decline in the May 31 price from 25% to 12%, reflecting reduced confidence in a near‑term capture.
Russian Chief of Staff Gerasimov exaggerates gains in Lyman area
Gerasimov claimed Russian forces seized 70% of Lyman, but ISW found no evidence of Russian control over Lyman, highlighting the discrepancy between official claims and battlefield reality, which likely contributed to market price decline.
ISW refutes Russian claims of capturing Lyman, reports no evidence of control
December 31 drops to 60%6%
ISW assessed that despite Russian military claims of seizing 70% of Lyman, there was no evidence of Russian control over the city or the railroad station, leading to a significant drop in market confidence.
ISW finds no evidence Russia captured Lyman despite official claims
December 31 plunges to 64%18%
Russian Chief of General Staff Gerasimov claimed significant territorial gains including 70% of Lyman, but ISW analysis showed no evidence of Russian control in Lyman and territorial losses since March 1. This contradicted Russian claims and lowered market confidence in a Russian capture of Lyman.
ISW reports Russian claims of Lyman capture contradicted by evidence
December 31 drops to 80%7%
Russian Chief of General Staff Gerasimov claimed 70% of Lyman seized, but ISW found no evidence of Russian control over the city, highlighting a disconnect between Russian statements and battlefield reality. This reduced market confidence in Russian capture of Lyman by year-end.
Euromaidan Press points out gap between Gerasimov’s Lyman claim and ISW data
December 31 drops to 55%8%
Euromaidan Press highlighted Gerasimov’s claim of 70 % control of Lyman contrasted with ISW’s lack of evidence. The report amplified skepticism among market participants, contributing to a further decline in the “December 31” odds from mid‑April’s 63 % to late‑April’s 55 %.
ISW reports no evidence of Russian capture of Lyman despite Russian claims
December 31 plunges to 60%19%
Russian Chief of General Staff Gerasimov claimed significant territorial gains including Lyman, but ISW found no evidence of Russian control over the city or the railroad station, undermining market confidence in a Russian capture by year-end.
Russian forces launch mechanized assaults around Lyman in spring-summer offensive
December 31 plunges to 61%18%
Russian military initiated a series of mechanized attacks around Lyman aiming to advance on Slovyansk from the northeast, signaling a focus on the Lyman area early in the offensive. This raised initial market confidence in a potential Russian capture of Lyman's railroad station.
Gerasimov Claims Russian Forces Seized 70 Percent of Lyman Amidst Exaggerated Reports
December 31 rises to 64%3%
Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov claimed significant advances, including seizing 70% of Lyman, but ISW found no evidence of any Russian presence in the city, highlighting Russia's lack of progress.
Russian forces increase small-group activity near Lyman amid poor offensive progress
December 31 drops to 54%12%
Despite Russian claims of territorial gains, ISW reported Russian forces had poor performance and Ukrainian forces maintained resistance near Lyman. This contributed to a market price decline from mid-60s to mid-50s by early May.
ISW dismisses Russian claim of 70 % control of Lyman
December 31 plunges to 66%15%
ISW’s April 21 assessment reported that Russian General Gerasimov claimed Russia had seized 70 % of Lyman, but the institute found no evidence of any Russian control. This discrepancy highlighted Russian overstretch and lowered market confidence in a capture, contributing to the price drop from 81 % (April 28) toward 66 % (May 3).
Russian Chief of Staff claims 70% of Lyman seized, ISW finds no evidence
December 31 jumps to 66%5%
Russian General Gerasimov claimed Russian forces seized 70% of Lyman, but ISW analysis found no evidence of Russian control over Lyman, highlighting discrepancies between Russian claims and independent assessments, undermining confidence in Russian capture of Lyman.
ISW Debunks Gerasimov's Claim of Seizing 70 Percent of Lyman
December 31 rises to 63%2%
Russian General Valery Gerasimov claimed that Russian forces had captured 70% of Lyman. However, the ISW found no evidence of any Russian presence or seizure in the city, confirming that Russia's spring offensive had produced zero tactically significant gains in the sector.
ISW reports no evidence of Russian control in Lyman despite claims
December 31 plunges to 61%21%
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed that Russian forces had not seized any part of Lyman despite Russian General Gerasimov's claims of 70% control. This discrepancy caused market confidence to wane, with prices declining from highs in March to lower levels by late April.
ISW Assesses Zero Tactically Significant Russian Gains in Spring-Summer 2026 Offensive
The Institute for the Study of War reported that Russia's spring-summer 2026 offensive produced zero tactically significant gains since launching no later than March 17, causing a price drop to 13%.
Russian offensive momentum stalls near Lyman amid Ukrainian resistance
December 31 plunges to 61%18%
By late April 2026, Russian forces faced significant resistance near Lyman, with Ukrainian counterattacks and defensive operations slowing Russian advances and causing market price declines for Russian capture probabilities.
Russian General Gerasimov asserts 70 % of Lyman captured
December 31 plunges to 61%18%
Gen. Gerasimov publicly claimed that Russian forces had seized 70 % of Lyman. The claim was widely reported and sparked a sharp rise in the market’s “December 31” odds as traders interpreted it as a possible breakthrough.
Gerasimov claims 70% of Lyman captured; ISW finds no evidence
June 30 plunges to 33%35%
Gerasimov publicly claimed Russia had seized 70 % of Lyman. ISW immediately refuted the claim, noting no evidence of Russian control. The stark contrast between the inflated Russian claim and ISW’s denial caused market participants to downgrade expectations, pulling the “June 30” price down from 68 % to 33 % over the next week.
ISW refutes Russian claims of Lyman territorial gains
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
ISW reported that Russian claims of seizing 70% of Lyman were contradicted by available evidence, with ISW assessing only 0% Russian control of Lyman. This directly contradicted Russian assertions and contributed to market price declines.
Gerasimov repeats false claims of Russian control over Lyman
December 31 jumps to 66%5%
Russian General Gerasimov again claimed Russian forces seized 70% of Lyman, but ISW found no evidence of such control, reinforcing market skepticism about Russian advances.
ISW Debunks Gerasimov's Exaggerated Claims of Capturing 70 Percent of Lyman
December 31 rises to 65%4%
Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov claimed Russian forces seized 70% of Lyman, but independent ISW mapping found no evidence of any Russian presence or gains inside the city.
ISW says Gerasimov’s Lyman claim is unsupported by evidence
December 31 plunges to 61%19%
ISW publicly refuted Gerasimov’s 70 % claim, stating it had observed no Russian presence in Lyman. The rebuttal coincided with a sharp price drop from 80 % to 61 % on April 22.
ISW Debunks Russian Claims of Seizing 70 Percent of Lyman
December 31 jumps to 66%5%
Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov claimed Russian forces had seized 70 percent of Lyman, but ISW reported finding no evidence of any Russian presence or gains in the city.
Russia Deploys Fresh Drone Crews to Lyman Direction to Target Ukrainian Logistics
June 30 drops to 22%6%
Ukrainian military spokespersons reported that Russian forces brought up fresh drone crews to the Lyman direction to target logistics, indicating sustained pressure but a shift to tactical attrition.
Russian Chief of General Staff Gerasimov exaggerates Russian gains in Lyman, ISW finds no evidence of capture
December 31 drops to 49%12%
Despite Russian claims of seizing 70% of Lyman, ISW assessments found no evidence of Russian control over the city or the railroad station, indicating ongoing Ukrainian control and undermining Russian credibility. This contributed to a decline in market confidence for Russian capture.
Gerasimov repeats claim of 70 % control of Lyman
December 31 rises to 65%4%
Gerasimov again claimed 70 % of Lyman was seized; the repeated official optimism revived “December 31” odds, raising price back to 65 % on 27‑Apr.
Gerasimov says 70 % of Lyman taken – ISW disputes claim
December 31 plunges to 66%20%
Gen. Gerasimov claimed that Russian forces had seized 70 % of Lyman, a statement that sharply raised market odds that Russia would capture the Lyman rail station. ISW immediately refuted the claim, noting no evidence of Russian control, which caused the price to retreat sharply over the following days.
Russian General Gerasimov claims 70% of Lyman seized, ISW finds no evidence
December 31 drops to 54%11%
Russian Chief of General Staff claimed significant territorial gains including Lyman, but ISW assessments found no confirmed Russian control of Lyman city or the railroad station, causing market uncertainty and price declines.
Russian Chief of Staff Gerasimov claims 70% of Lyman seized, but ISW finds no evidence
December 31 dips to 61%3%
Russian General Gerasimov claimed significant Russian control over Lyman, but ISW and other analysts found no evidence supporting these claims, noting only minor Russian advances far from Lyman. This discrepancy undermined market confidence in Russian capture prospects.
Gerasimov claims 70% of Lyman seized, ISW finds no evidence of Russian control
December 31 rises to 63%1%
During a visit to the Southern Grouping of Forces command, Gerasimov claimed Russian forces had seized 70% of Lyman. ISW's detailed terrain control analysis found no evidence of Russian control over Lyman and noted Russian forces had lost ground since March 1. This discrepancy highlighted ongoing Russian exaggeration of battlefield gains.
Russian General Gerasimov exaggerates Russian gains in Lyman area
December 31 dips to 86%4%
Russian Chief of General Staff Gerasimov claimed 70% seizure of Lyman, but ISW found no evidence of Russian control in Lyman, highlighting misinformation and undermining market confidence in Russian capture by near dates.
Russian Claims of Advances Near Lyman Disputed by ISW
December 31 plunges to 61%18%
Russian claims of advances near Lyman were contradicted by ISW analysis, which found no evidence of Russian control in Lyman itself, causing some market uncertainty and price decline.
Russian claims of seizing 70% of Lyman contradicted by ISW
December 31 drops to 59%5%
Russian Chief of General Staff Gerasimov claimed significant control of Lyman, but ISW found no evidence of Russian forces seizing any part of Lyman, leading to market price decline.
Russian General Gerasimov claims partial seizure of Lyman but ISW finds no evidence
December 31 plunges to 61%20%
Russian Chief of General Staff Gerasimov claimed Russian forces seized 70% of Lyman in April 2026, but ISW analysis found no evidence of such control, indicating Russian overstatements and continued Ukrainian defense. This discrepancy contributed to market doubts about Russian advances.
EU leaders announce concrete security guarantees for Ukraine
June 30 drops to 16%9%
The announcement of a detailed security package, including air‑defense support, lowered market confidence that Russia would succeed, driving the June‑30 price sharply lower from 25% to 16%.
Russian claims of seizing majority of Lyman disputed by ISW
December 31 rises to 64%3%
Russian Chief of General Staff Gerasimov claimed Russian forces seized 70% of Lyman, but ISW found no evidence of Russian control over Lyman, indicating ongoing Ukrainian control and contested fighting in the area.
ISW assessment finds no evidence of Russian control over Lyman despite claims
On April 21, ISW reported that Russian claims of seizing 70% of Lyman were not supported by evidence. Russian forces had failed to capture the town, and Ukrainian defenses remained intact, reinforcing market doubts about a Russian capture by the end of 2025.
U.S.‑Russia high‑level talks resume, no immediate ceasefire
June 30 plunges to 19%15%
A diplomatic meeting in Abu Dhabi re‑established military‑to‑military dialogue but did not produce a ceasefire, keeping the prospect of Russian gains uncertain and causing the June 30 price to fall further.
Russian assaults near Lyman continue without territorial gains
December 31 plunges to 61%18%
Russian forces conducted multiple small-scale assaults near Lyman but failed to advance or capture the area. Ukrainian defenses remained intact, and Russian drone strikes hindered Ukrainian anti-drone efforts, reflecting a stalemate and reducing market confidence.
Ukrainian brigade says Russian breakthrough at Lyman repelled
Ukrainian brigade reports heavy fighting and a failed Russian attempt to breach Lyman, reinforcing the view that Russia had not captured the town; market odds fell further.
No territorial gains by Russia near Lyman railroad station reported
December 31 dips to 60%2%
Continued reports indicated no territorial gains by Russian forces around the Lyman railroad station, leading to a further decline in market confidence from 62% to 60%. This solidified market expectations that Russia would not capture the station by the deadline.
Ukrainian forces counterattack and repel Russian advances near Lyman
December 31 plunges to 62%19%
Ukrainian forces launched counterattacks in the Lyman direction, pushing Russian forces from positions and maintaining control of key areas near the railroad station. This stalled Russian advances and contributed to a decline in market confidence for a near-term Russian capture.
Ukrainian Partisans Sabotage Luhansk Railway Substation, Disrupting Russian Logistics Toward Lyman
December 31 drops to 60%7%
The Ukrainian partisan group Atesh successfully sabotaged a railway transformer in occupied Luhansk, disrupting critical Russian supply lines feeding the Lyman offensive and further bogging down Russian forces.
Ukrainian drones strike Russian oil refinery in Tuapse, demonstrating extended strike capabilities
May 31 drops to 12%13%
Ukraine's ability to conduct deep strikes into Russian territory with drones showcased its growing military capabilities, potentially limiting Russian offensive momentum including in Lyman. This contributed to further declines in market prices for Russia capturing Lyman by May 31 and June 30.
Russian forces increase assaults near Lyman but Ukrainian forces counterattack
December 31 drops to 61%5%
Russian forces conducted ground assaults and infiltration missions near Lyman, but Ukrainian forces counterattacked and pushed Russian forces from some positions, maintaining control over key areas including near the railroad station.
Ukraine launches counterattacks in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions
June 30 plunges to 27%31%
Ukrainian forces conducted successful counterattacks disrupting Russian advances and forcing Russia to allocate resources defensively. This reduced the likelihood of a swift Russian capture of Lyman by earlier dates, reflected in falling market prices for June 30 and May 31 outcomes.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions near Lyman, disrupt logistics
December 31 drops to 60%7%
Ukrainian forces conducted strikes on Russian-occupied buildings and disrupted Russian logistics near Lyman, while Russian forces were bogged down and Ukrainian counterattacks continued, further undermining Russian control prospects over Lyman railroad station.
Ukrainian forces counterattack and stall Russian advances near Lyman
December 31 drops to 54%11%
Ukrainian forces conducted counterattacks near Lyman, clearing Russian infiltration groups and stalling Russian advances, which contributed to market skepticism about imminent Russian capture.
Ukrainian partisans sabotage railroad infrastructure affecting Russian logistics near Lyman
December 31 plunges to 61%18%
Ukrainian partisan groups disabled railway relay cabinets near Luhansk, disrupting Russian logistics and limiting their ability to conduct offensive operations around Lyman, thereby hindering Russian advances toward the railroad station.
Ukrainian forces continue counterattacks and sabotage near Lyman
December 31 drops to 61%6%
Ukrainian partisans sabotaged railroad infrastructure disrupting Russian logistics, and Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Lyman, maintaining pressure and control in the area. This contributed to a decline in market confidence for Russian capture.
Ukrainian drones strike Russian oil facilities amid rising energy prices
December 31 plunges to 64%15%
Ukraine's deep-strike drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure demonstrated growing military capabilities, pressuring Russia's war effort and complicating its offensive operations, contributing to market price declines.
Ukrainian forces counterattack and clear Russian infiltration groups northwest and southeast of Lyman
December 31 jumps to 67%6%
Ukrainian counterattacks pushed Russian forces from positions near Lyman, clearing infiltration groups and disrupting Russian attempts to consolidate control, signaling ongoing contested status of Lyman and limiting Russian progress.
Ukrainian forces counterattack and disrupt Russian logistics near Lyman
December 31 drops to 56%9%
Ukrainian partisans sabotaged railroad infrastructure supporting Russian logistics near Lyman, and Ukrainian forces counterattacked southeast of Lyman, pushing Russian forces from some positions. These actions hindered Russian offensive capabilities and lowered market confidence in a Russian capture by year-end.
Ukrainian drones strike oil depot in Russia’s Volgograd region
May 31 drops to 12%13%
Repeated Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy sites highlighted Russia’s growing vulnerabilities, further eroding confidence in a successful Russian push toward Lyman and driving the May 31 price from 25% to 12% shortly after.
Ukrainian partisans sabotage railway infrastructure supporting Russian logistics near Lyman
December 31 dips to 63%3%
Ukrainian partisan sabotage of railway infrastructure in occupied Luhansk disrupted Russian logistics in the Lyman direction, hindering Russian offensive capabilities and contributing to market price decline.
ISW reports no evidence of Russian control over Lyman despite claims
December 31 drops to 68%13%
Russian Chief of General Staff Gerasimov claimed significant advances and partial seizure of Lyman, but ISW found no evidence of Russian forces controlling the city or the railroad station. This discrepancy caused market prices to decline from highs.
Ukrainian partisans sabotage Russian railroad infrastructure affecting Lyman logistics
December 31 drops to 67%14%
Ukrainian partisan group Atesh burned a transformer at a railway substation in occupied Luhansk City, disrupting Russian logistics in the Lyman direction. This hindered Russian supply lines and limited their offensive capabilities near Lyman.
Ukrainian forces repel Russian attempts near Lyman station
December 31 jumps to 65%5%
Reports from ISW and other military sources confirmed Ukrainian defensive successes around Lyman, preventing Russian control of the railroad station. Market prices rose slightly from 60% to 65% reflecting increased confidence in Ukrainian control and reduced likelihood of Russian capture by year-end.
ISW reports Russian forces bogged down northwest of Lyman, Ukrainian counterattacks ongoing
December 31 rises to 62%1%
ISW reported Russian forces were bogged down northwest of Lyman with Ukrainian forces counterattacking southeast near Yampil and Ozerne. Russian forces continued ground operations but failed to make significant advances, indicating continued Ukrainian control of the Lyman area.
Ukrainian drone strikes cause fires at Russian oil facilities amid rising energy prices
Ukraine’s long-range drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, including refineries and export terminals, have increased, putting pressure on Russia’s war economy and potentially affecting military operations near Lyman.
Ukrainian Counterattacks Bog Down Russian Forces Northwest of Lyman
December 31 plunges to 61%18%
Ukrainian forces launched successful counterattacks southeast of Lyman near Yampil and Ozerne, while Russian forces remained bogged down northwest of Lyman, leading to a steady decline in Russia's capture probability.
Ukrainian partisans sabotage Russian logistics affecting Lyman direction
December 31 plunges to 60%19%
Ukrainian partisan groups sabotaged railway infrastructure in occupied Luhansk Oblast, disrupting Russian logistics supporting operations in the Lyman area. This undermined Russian operational capabilities and contributed to market price decline to around 60%.
Ukrainian forces continue counterattacks near Lyman, pushing back Russian infiltration groups
December 31 drops to 68%13%
ISW reported that Ukrainian forces were actively counterattacking southeast and northwest of Lyman, clearing Russian infiltration groups and disrupting Russian control in the area. This ongoing resistance contributed to doubts about Russia's ability to capture the Lyman railroad station by year-end.
Ukrainian Forces Launch Counterattacks and Clear Russian Infiltration Groups Near Lyman
December 31 rises to 64%4%
Ukrainian forces successfully cleared Russian infiltration groups northwest of Lyman and launched counterattacks to the southeast, pushing Russian forces back from their positions.
Ukrainian counterattacks push back Russian forces near Lyman
December 31 drops to 62%5%
On April 18, Ukrainian forces counterattacked southeast and northwest of Lyman, clearing Russian infiltration groups and pushing Russian forces from positions near Yampil and Ozerne. These counterattacks prevented Russian advances and maintained Ukrainian control over the Lyman area, undermining Russian capture prospects.
Ukrainian forces counterattack near Lyman, repelling Russian infiltration attempts
December 31 plunges to 61%22%
Ukrainian forces conducted counterattacks southeast and northwest of Lyman, clearing Russian infiltration groups from nearby settlements, maintaining control over the area and preventing Russian consolidation in Lyman.
Russian forces advance near Chervonyi Lyman but no capture of Lyman station
December 31 plunges to 61%18%
On April 17, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported Russian advances in Rodynske and Chervonyi Lyman, indicating localized Russian pressure near Lyman. However, ISW and other sources found no evidence of Russian control over the Lyman railroad station itself, limiting market confidence in a full capture.
Ukrainian forces counterattack southeast of Lyman near Yampil
December 31 dips to 63%3%
Ukrainian troops launched counterattacks southeast of Lyman near Yampil and Ozerne, pushing back Russian forces from positions in the area. This limited Russian advances and maintained Ukrainian control near Lyman, reducing the likelihood of Russian capture of the railroad station soon.
Russian forces advance near Lyman and Chervonyi Lyman according to Ukrainian OSINT
December 31 plunges to 61%18%
On April 17, 2026, Ukraine's DeepState OSINT group reported Russian advances in Rodynske and Chervonyi Lyman, indicating increased Russian activity near Lyman. This raised market optimism about potential Russian gains but did not confirm capture of the railroad station.
Russian forces advance in Rodynske and Chervonyi Lyman areas
December 31 jumps to 67%6%
Russian armed forces reportedly made advances in Rodynske and Chervonyi Lyman, indicating ongoing offensive efforts near Lyman. However, these advances did not translate into control of the Lyman railroad station, limiting market impact.
Russian forces advance in Chervonyi Lyman amid ongoing fighting
December 31 jumps to 66%7%
On April 17, Russian forces reportedly advanced in Chervonyi Lyman according to DeepState OSINT, suggesting some localized gains. However, overall control of Lyman city and its railroad station remained unconfirmed, maintaining market uncertainty and moderate price recovery.
Russian forces attempt breakthrough near Lyman but repelled by Ukrainian defenses
December 31 plunges to 61%18%
On April 17, 2026, Russian forces made an attempt to break through Ukrainian defenses in the Lyman sector but were effectively repelled, with Ukrainian forces inflicting significant losses. This maintained Ukrainian control and contributed to a decline in market confidence in Russian capture.
Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT reports Russian advances in Chervonyi Lyman
December 31 rises to 64%3%
On April 17, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported Russian advances in Chervonyi Lyman, raising market optimism about Russian progress. However, these advances were limited and did not amount to full capture, contributing to volatile market prices.
Ukrainian forces advance and counterattack in Lyman direction
December 31 drops to 66%13%
Ukrainian forces launched counterattacks southeast of Lyman and cleared Russian infiltration groups from nearby areas, reducing confidence in Russian capture of Lyman. This corresponded with a price decline from 79% to 66% for the December 31 outcome.
Ukrainian drones strike Russian railway logistics near Luhansk, impacting Russian operations near Lyman
December 31 plunges to 61%21%
Ukrainian Security Service and Unmanned Systems Forces destroyed fuel cargo trains and damaged railway infrastructure near occupied Luhansk City, disrupting Russian logistics supporting operations in the Lyman direction, contributing to market price decline.
Ukrainian drones strike Russian logistics near Lyman, disrupting supplies
December 31 drops to 60%7%
On April 16, Ukrainian Security Service and Unmanned Systems Forces drones struck cargo trains and railway infrastructure near occupied Luhansk City, disrupting Russian logistics supporting forces in the Lyman direction, hindering Russian offensive capabilities.
Ukrainian partisans sabotage railway infrastructure affecting Lyman logistics
December 31 dips to 63%4%
Ukrainian partisan attacks on railway infrastructure near Luhansk disrupted Russian logistics in the Lyman direction, undermining Russian operational capabilities and reducing market confidence in a Russian capture by year-end.
Ukrainian drones strike Russian fuel trains near Luhansk, disrupting logistics
December 31 plunges to 61%20%
Ukrainian Security Service and Unmanned Systems Forces struck cargo trains carrying fuel near occupied Luhansk City, damaging Russian logistics supporting operations near Lyman, weakening Russian offensive capabilities.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian logistics near Lyman, disrupting supply lines
December 31 plunges to 67%20%
Ukrainian drone strikes targeted cargo trains and railway infrastructure near Luhansk and Lyman, damaging Russian logistics and hindering their offensive capabilities, which tempered market optimism about Russian capture of Lyman.
Russian milblogger claims advances near Lyman but Ukrainian forces hold key positions
December 31 jumps to 66%6%
Despite Russian claims of advances northeast of Lyman, geolocated footage confirmed Ukrainian control within Sosnove northwest of Lyman, maintaining Ukrainian hold on the area and dampening Russian capture prospects.
Ukrainian drone strikes damage Russian logistics near Lyman, Russian advances unconfirmed
On April 16, Ukrainian drones struck cargo trains carrying fuel near occupied Luhansk City, disrupting Russian logistics critical for operations in the Lyman direction. Russian milbloggers claimed advances northeast of Lyman, but ISW geolocated footage showed Ukrainian control in nearby Sosnove, contradicting Russian claims. These developments reinforced market skepticism about Russian capture of Lyman by year-end.
Ukrainian forces conduct strikes disrupting Russian logistics near Lyman
December 31 plunges to 61%17%
Ukrainian drone strikes targeted Russian logistics and fuel trains near Luhansk and Lyman, hampering Russian supply lines and indicating Ukrainian resistance, contributing to market price declines in April.
Ukrainian Partisans Sabotage Russian Railway Infrastructure Supplying Lyman
December 31 drops to 61%6%
Ukrainian partisan and security forces successfully struck cargo trains and railway infrastructure in occupied Luhansk, disrupting critical Russian logistics and supply lines heading toward the Lyman front.
Ukrainian forces conduct counterattacks in Lyman direction
December 31 drops to 67%14%
Ukrainian forces advanced and counterattacked near Lyman, disrupting Russian positions and logistics, which dampened market optimism about Russian capture of Lyman by year-end.
Ukrainian drone strikes disrupt Russian logistics near Lyman
December 31 plunges to 62%19%
Ukrainian Security Service and Unmanned Systems Forces conducted drone strikes on cargo trains and railway infrastructure near occupied Luhansk City, impacting Russian supply lines supporting Lyman operations and reducing Russian offensive momentum.
Ukrainian drones strike railway fuel trains near Luhansk, disrupting Russian logistics to Lyman
December 31 dips to 64%4%
Ukrainian Security Service and Unmanned Systems Forces destroyed fuel tankers and damaged railway infrastructure near occupied Luhansk City, disrupting Russian logistics supporting operations in the Lyman direction. This logistical disruption likely hindered Russian offensive capabilities, contributing to market price declines.
Ukrainian drones strike railway infrastructure near Lyman, disrupting Russian logistics
December 31 plunges to 61%18%
Ukrainian Security Service and Unmanned Systems Forces conducted drone strikes on cargo trains carrying fuel at railway stations near occupied Luhansk City, about 99 km from the frontline, damaging Russian logistics supporting Lyman operations. This hindered Russian offensive capabilities and contributed to a market price decline from 79% to 61% Yes for December 31.
Ukrainian forces advance in Slovyansk-Lyman area amid Russian logistical strikes
December 31 drops to 67%14%
Ukrainian forces made advances in the Slovyansk-Lyman tactical area in mid-April, while Ukrainian partisans sabotaged Russian railway infrastructure disrupting logistics. Russian forces claimed some advances near Lyman but Ukrainian control remained firm, contributing to market price decline.
Ukrainian partisans sabotage railway transformer in occupied Luhansk
June 30 plunges to 39%30%
Atesh reported burning a railway transformer in occupied Luhansk, disrupting logistics for the Lyman axis. The logistics setback lowered confidence in a rapid capture, pushing the “June 30” price down to 39 % on 1‑Apr.
Ukrainian drones hit fuel trains near Luhansk, hurting Russian logistics
December 31 plunges to 61%19%
Ukrainian drones struck cargo trains and fuel tankers near Luhansk, disrupting Russian logistics feeding the Lyman front. The strike heightened expectations that Russian advances would stall, pulling the market down.
Ukrainian drones strike logistics near Lyman disrupting Russian supply lines
December 31 plunges to 62%17%
Ukrainian Security Service and Unmanned Systems Forces conducted drone strikes on cargo trains carrying fuel near occupied Luhansk City, damaging railway infrastructure and disrupting Russian logistics supporting operations near Lyman.
Russian Defense Minister outlines new Donetsk offensive plans
December 31 jumps to 73%5%
Belousov’s statements about accelerating the tempo of Russian offensives in Donetsk revived fears of a Lyman capture, causing a brief rebound in the December‑31 price from 68% to 73%.
Ukraine intensifies drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, signaling growing military capabilities
June 30 drops to 17%11%
Ukraine's increased drone attacks deep inside Russia demonstrated enhanced military reach, suggesting continued Ukrainian resilience and complicating Russian territorial gains including Lyman, contributing to market price declines.
Russian forces advance in Rodynske and Chervonyi Lyman areas
December 31 rises to 64%3%
Russian armed forces reportedly advanced in Rodynske and Chervonyi Lyman in mid-April, signaling continued efforts to capture territory near Lyman but without confirmed control of the Lyman railroad station itself.
Ukrainian counter‑offensive stalls Russian advance near Lyman
June 30 plunges to 37%34%
Ukrainian reports of successful defensive actions slowed Russian momentum, leading to a noticeable drop in the June‑30 price as market participants reassessed short‑term capture odds.
Ukrainian forces encircle Russian troops in Lyman, prompting Russian withdrawal announcement
December 31 plunges to 61%18%
Ukrainian forces encircled thousands of Russian soldiers in Lyman, leading to a Russian announcement of withdrawal from the city. This indicated loss of Russian control over Lyman and its strategic railroad station, negatively impacting market confidence in Russian capture.
Ukrainian commander reports holding off Russian offensives near Lyman
December 31 dips to 77%3%
Ukrainian commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that Ukrainian forces held off Russian offensives near Lyman during March 2026, reinforcing Ukrainian control and dampening market expectations of Russian capture.
Russia announces withdrawal from strategic post in Lyman amid Ukrainian encirclement
December 31 drops to 68%11%
Russian military announced withdrawal from Lyman, a key railway hub, after Ukrainian forces reportedly surrounded thousands of Russian soldiers. This indicated Russia losing control of Lyman, negatively impacting market confidence in Russian capture of the station.
Russian mechanized assault near Lyman repelled
December 31 jumps to 67%6%
ISW reported a mechanized Russian assault attempt near Lyman that was repelled, contributing to a moderate dip in “December 31” odds.
Russian forces fail to seize Lyman despite multiple attacks in March and April
December 31 plunges to 66%15%
Throughout March and April 2026, Russian forces launched multiple attacks near Lyman but failed to capture the city or its railroad station. Ukrainian forces maintained control, repelling assaults and conducting counterattacks, sustaining Ukrainian hold on Lyman.
Ukraine reports new advances and Russian attacks near Lyman
December 31 drops to 61%7%
Despite ongoing Russian attacks near Lyman, Ukrainian forces reported advances in the area in mid-April, including counterattacks that delayed Russian progress. This contributed to a further decline in market confidence in Russian capture of Lyman by year-end.
Market reacts to reports of stalled Ukraine-Russia peace talks and ongoing fighting
December 31 plunges to 42%15%
Reports indicated no breakthrough in peace negotiations, with both sides entrenched and fighting continuing. This uncertainty contributed to a market price trough reflecting doubts about imminent Russian territorial gains including Lyman.
Russian forces claim advances near Lyman and Slovyansk
December 31 jumps to 67%6%
Russian milbloggers claimed advances in northern and northeastern Lyman and nearby settlements, suggesting ongoing offensive efforts. However, these claims were unconfirmed and likely aimed at creating an impression of success, causing minor market fluctuations.
Russian and Ukrainian forces exchange attacks near Lyman during Orthodox Easter ceasefire
December 31 drops to 61%5%
Despite a unilateral ceasefire, both sides accused each other of violations with continued attacks near Lyman, indicating persistent conflict and no decisive control change, which contributed to market uncertainty and price decline.
Ukraine launches counterattacks in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia
June 30 plunges to 21%30%
Ukrainian counter-offensive operations forced Russia to divert resources, reducing the immediate threat to the Lyman sector and causing a sharp drop in the market price for a June 30 resolution.
Russian attacks on Ukraine’s power plants cause severe electricity shortages
June 30 plunges to 22%29%
Russia's intensified attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure increased pressure on Ukraine but did not translate into immediate territorial gains such as capturing Lyman. Market prices for later capture dates dropped significantly, reflecting uncertainty about Russia's ability to secure Lyman soon.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions southeast of Lyman amid ongoing fighting
December 31 dips to 79%2%
Ukrainian advances and strikes on Russian positions near Lyman indicated strong resistance, limiting Russian territorial gains and causing market confidence in Russian capture to decline.
Ukrainian forces maintain control of Lyman railroad station area
December 31 drops to 68%11%
New intelligence and battlefield reports confirmed that Ukrainian troops continued to hold the Lyman railroad station area, causing market confidence in Russian capture to fall further from 79% to 68%. This reinforced doubts about Russia's ability to secure the station by year-end.
U.S. and Russia re‑establish high‑level military dialogue
December 31 drops to 61%5%
The diplomatic thaw reduced immediate expectations of a Russian offensive, contributing to a dip in the December 31 price from 66% to 61% as traders reassessed the likelihood of a rapid capture.
ISW: Russian strikes around Lyman, no territorial gain
ISW noted heavy Russian strikes around Lyman but no advance; the market’s “December 31” odds remained high but began to drift downward later in April.
Ukraine’s allies agree on multilayered security guarantees in peace proposal
June 30 plunges to 22%30%
Ukraine’s allies made progress on defense guarantees to deter future Russian attacks if a peace deal is struck, strengthening Ukraine’s position and reducing market confidence in Russian capture of Lyman by mid-2026.
Ukrainian forces advance in Yampil near Lyman, Russian forces fail to advance
December 31 dips to 79%2%
Ukrainian forces advanced in central Yampil southeast of Lyman, while Russian forces continued attacks near Lyman but did not make territorial gains, signaling stalled Russian offensive and reducing likelihood of capturing Lyman railroad station soon.
U.S.‑backed peace talks gain momentum in Paris
June 30 plunges to 25%43%
AP covered a major Paris meeting where 27 European nations pledged security guarantees for Ukraine, signaling a possible diplomatic path that reduced expectations of a Russian capture of Lyman, pushing the June‑30 price down from 68% to 25%.
Small group clashes and high activity reported near Lyman amid forested terrain
December 31 drops to 61%7%
Fierce small unit engagements and infiltration attempts by Ukrainian forces near Lyman's forested outskirts indicated ongoing contested control, maintaining uncertainty and lowering market confidence.
Ukrainian forces advance in central Yampil near Lyman
December 31 plunges to 59%20%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian advances in central Yampil southeast of Lyman on April 10, indicating continued Ukrainian control in the Lyman area and limiting Russian prospects of capturing the railroad station.
Russian forces fail to make significant advances near Lyman
December 31 plunges to 64%16%
Russian military shifted focus to other fronts after struggling to advance on Slovyansk and Lyman, leading to decreased market confidence in Russian capture of Lyman railroad station.
Russian forces attack near Lyman but fail to advance, Ukrainian defenses hold
December 31 drops to 79%7%
Russian forces conducted attacks near Lyman and surrounding areas but did not make territorial gains. Ukrainian forces maintained control, and Russian troop buildups suggested preparation rather than successful capture, leading to a decline in market confidence.
Russian forces increase troop transfers and attacks near Lyman
December 31 jumps to 87%8%
Russian forces reportedly transferred troops and artillery to the Lyman direction and launched attacks near Lyman and surrounding villages, indicating preparation for future offensives. This heightened activity temporarily increased market optimism for Russian capture by December 31.
U.S. and Russia agree to reestablish military-to-military dialogue after New START expires
June 30 drops to 17%10%
Following the expiration of the New START nuclear arms treaty, the U.S. and Russia agreed to resume high-level military talks. This diplomatic development may influence future conflict dynamics.
Russian drone attack on Ukrainian railway station in Krasnodar region
December 31 plunges to 61%18%
Russia launched drones into Ukraine, with wreckage falling on a railway station in the Krasnodar region, confirming Russian military operations in the area and affecting market perception of Russian advances.
Russia Transfers Troops to Lyman Direction in Preparation for Future Offensive
December 31 rises to 67%1%
Ukrainian military spokespersons reported that Russian forces were accumulating infantry and transferring forces to the Lyman direction, temporarily stabilizing the market's decline.
Russian forces accumulate infantry and artillery in Lyman direction for future offensive
December 31 drops to 58%5%
Russian forces reportedly transferred troops and artillery to the Lyman direction, preparing for future offensive efforts, but did not make confirmed advances, maintaining a contested frontline around the railroad station.
Ukrainian counterattack stalls Russian push near Lyman
December 31 plunges to 65%16%
Ukrainian forces launched a counteroffensive that halted Russian advances around Lyman, leading to a sharp drop in the market’s confidence that Russia would capture the station by year‑end.
Ukraine's allies report progress on defense guarantees if peace deal is struck
December 31 drops to 67%12%
Progress in peace talks and security guarantees led to a decline in the probability of a Russian military capture of Lyman, as a negotiated settlement became more likely.
Russian forces conduct attacks near Lyman but fail to secure control
December 31 drops to 67%14%
On April 7 and 8, Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding areas but did not achieve significant territorial gains. ISW reported ongoing Russian assaults and drone operations but noted Ukrainian forces maintained positions and counterattacked, indicating continued contested control of the Lyman area and no capture of the railroad station.
Russian forces continue attacks near Lyman with no confirmed capture
December 31 dips to 64%3%
Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding areas on April 6-7, but Ukrainian forces held positions and counterattacked. The fighting remained contested with no confirmed Russian capture of the Lyman railroad station, maintaining downward pressure on market probability.
ISW reports Russian forces maintain pressure but fail to advance near Lyman
December 31 drops to 60%8%
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Lyman but did not make significant advances, facing strong Ukrainian resistance. This contributed to a decline in market confidence for Russian capture by both December 31 and June 30.
Ukrainian counteroffensive slows Russian progress near Lyman
December 31 plunges to 61%18%
Reports of a Ukrainian counteroffensive reducing Russian territorial gains near Lyman caused a market price drop from 79% to 61% for the December 31 outcome, reflecting decreased confidence in Russia capturing the station by year-end.
Ukrainian counteroffensive slows Russian advance near Lyman
December 31 drops to 67%14%
Reports of Ukrainian counterattacks near Lyman caused market uncertainty about Russia's sustained control, leading to a price drop from 81% to 67%.
Ukrainian forces destroy Russian regiment and improve tactical position near Lyman
December 31 drops to 59%12%
Ukrainian 3rd Army Corps and Defense Intelligence Directorate destroyed a Russian regiment and captured troops near Lyman, limiting Russian maneuverability and improving Ukrainian positions, lowering Russian capture chances.
Russian forces attack near Lyman but face Ukrainian advances in Yampil
December 31 plunges to 66%15%
Russian forces conducted attacks near Lyman and surrounding areas on April 6-7, but Ukrainian forces advanced in nearby Yampil, indicating contested control and ongoing fighting. Russian claims of advances were unconfirmed, and Ukrainian resistance remained strong, contributing to market price decline.
Russian Forces Advance Near Hryshyne and Kotlyne in Donetsk Oblast
Russian forces made advances near Hryshyne and Kotlyne, close to Lyman, suggesting pressure on Ukrainian defenses and potential for further Russian territorial gains, supporting market optimism.
Russia intensifies attacks on Ukraine's railway infrastructure including near Lyman
December 31 dips to 60%4%
In April 2026, Russia escalated attacks on Ukrainian railway infrastructure, including areas near Lyman, aiming to disrupt logistics and support military advances, impacting market perceptions of Russian operational capabilities.
Russian Forces Target Siverskyi Donets Crossings and Railway Lines Near Lyman
December 31 drops to 66%13%
Russian forces focused on targeting Ukrainian logistics, bridges, and railway crossings around Lyman rather than achieving direct ground breakthroughs, reflecting a shift to containment tactics.
Ukrainian Forces Advance Near Lyman as Counterattacks Push Back Russian Positions
December 31 drops to 67%12%
Geolocated footage confirmed Ukrainian advances in central Yampil, southeast of Lyman, demonstrating successful local counterattacks that pushed back Russian forces and lowered the probability of a near-term capture of Lyman.
Ukrainian Forces Advance Near Yampil as Russian Forces Target Regional Infrastructure
December 31 drops to 66%13%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces advancing in central Yampil, southeast of Lyman, while Russian forces shifted to targeting bridges and railway crossings to disrupt Ukrainian logistics.
Ukrainian General Staff logs Russian artillery strikes near Lyman
December 31 drops to 61%6%
The General Staff documented Russian artillery strikes on Ukrainian positions near Lyman, indicating ongoing fighting but no capture, prompting a price drop to 61 % on 22‑Apr.
Russian forces continue offensive operations near Lyman but do not advance
December 31 rises to 66%3%
On April 3-4, Russian forces attacked toward Lyman and nearby settlements but did not make advances, showing persistent fighting but no capture of the railroad station.
Russian forces attack toward Lyman but fail to advance
December 31 plunges to 62%17%
Russian forces attacked toward Lyman and nearby areas on April 3 and 4 but did not achieve territorial gains, reflecting continued Ukrainian resistance and contributing to a market price decline to around 62%.
ISW map shows Russian advances near Lyman
December 31 drops to 67%12%
The Institute for the Study of War updated its map showing Russian forces advancing toward Lyman, supporting the market's initial bullish sentiment.
Ukrainian forces report heavy Russian casualties and counterattacks near Lyman
December 31 dips to 79%2%
Ukrainian President Zelensky and ISW reported significant Russian casualties and Ukrainian counterattacks near Lyman, indicating strong Ukrainian resistance and complicating Russian efforts to capture the area, which contributed to a decline in market confidence.
Ukrainian President Zelensky reports best frontline situation in 10 months, Russian attacks near Lyman continue
December 31 drops to 68%13%
Zelensky stated Ukrainian intelligence showed the frontline was the best in 10 months, with ongoing Russian attacks near Lyman but no breakthroughs. This bolstered confidence in Ukrainian defense and contributed to market price declines for Russian capture.
Russian forces continue offensive operations near Lyman but make no advances
December 31 drops to 79%7%
Russian forces attacked toward Lyman and surrounding areas on April 2-3 but did not advance, with Ukrainian counterattacks reported. This maintained uncertainty about Russian control of Lyman, contributing to a slight price decline.
Ukrainian intelligence reveals Russian plans to strike railway and logistics targets
December 31 drops to 79%7%
Ukrainian President Zelensky announced that Russian forces plan to target railway and logistics infrastructure in spring and summer 2026, indicating a strategic focus on disrupting Ukrainian supply lines near Lyman, affecting the battle dynamics and market sentiment.
Russian drone and missile barrage hits Ukrainian energy grid
June 30 plunges to 19%15%
A massive Russian strike on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure shifted focus away from Lyman, prompting traders to lower the June 30 price from 34% to 19% as the war’s broader dynamics dominated market sentiment.
Zelensky Reports Frontline Situation Best in 10 Months as Spring Weather Arrives
December 31 drops to 67%14%
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported that the frontline situation was the best it had been for Ukraine since June 2025, with approaching sunny spring weather expected to hinder Russian infiltration operations.
Russian drone attack on Krasnodar railway station causes temporary flight restrictions
December 31 rises to 63%2%
Russia launched drones into Ukraine, with wreckage falling on a railway station in the Krasnodar region, causing temporary flight restrictions and highlighting Russian targeting of Ukrainian infrastructure.
Reports of Ukrainian forces maintaining control near Lyman railroad station
December 31 drops to 67%14%
News emerged indicating that Ukrainian forces continued to hold positions near the Lyman railroad station, dampening expectations of imminent Russian capture and causing a notable price drop in the December 31 outcome.
ISW notes largest Russian motorcycle assault near Lyman in 2026
Ukrainian brigade reported the largest motorcycle assault by Russian forces in the Lyman direction since early 2026, indicating intensified Russian efforts but no confirmed capture.
Russian forces attack near Lyman but make no significant advances
Russian forces launched attacks near Lyman and surrounding areas on April 1 but failed to advance or capture key positions, maintaining a stalemate that kept the railroad station out of Russian control. This contributed to sustained market confidence but with some caution.
Ukrainian forces advance near Lyman, repelling Russian infiltration attempts
December 31 dips to 79%2%
Geolocated footage and ISW reports showed Ukrainian forces advancing in Yarova northwest of Lyman and striking Russian positions, indicating active Ukrainian defense and counterattacks that prevented Russian control of Lyman. This maintained skepticism about Russian capture prospects, slightly lowering market confidence.
Reports indicate stalled Russian advances near Lyman railroad station
December 31 drops to 67%14%
Military analysts and ISW maps showed no significant Russian territorial gains around the Lyman railroad station, causing market confidence in Russian capture to drop from 81% to 67%. This suggested that Russian forces were unable to secure the station by early April.
Russian drone attack on Ukrainian railway station in Krasnodar region
December 31 jumps to 65%5%
Russia launched a drone attack on a railway station in the Krasnodar region, with drone wreckage falling on the station and causing injuries, demonstrating Russian capability to strike Ukrainian infrastructure.
Russian drone and missile attacks intensify on Ukrainian energy infrastructure
December 31 plunges to 60%20%
Russia launched large-scale drone and missile strikes targeting Ukraine's energy grid, aiming to weaken Ukrainian resistance and influence peace negotiations, causing market uncertainty and price volatility.
Ukrainian Forces Advance in Yarova Northwest of Lyman
December 31 drops to 67%14%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces making tactical advances northwest of Lyman, contributing to a downward trend in the market's expectations of a Russian capture.
Russian forces launch spring offensive with mechanized assaults around Lyman
December 31 plunges to 61%22%
Russian military command initiated their spring-summer 2026 offensive focusing on mechanized assaults near Lyman, aiming to advance on Slovyansk from the northeast. However, these assaults failed to produce significant territorial gains, signaling early challenges in the campaign.
Ukrainian forces advance near Lyman, ISW reports no Russian control of Lyman
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian advances near Lyman, while ISW assessed Russian forces had not seized Lyman, indicating ongoing Ukrainian resistance and no Russian control of the railroad station. This tempered market optimism about Russian capture by December 31.
Russian forces slow offensive near Lyman, Ukrainian forces hold town
By March 29, Russian forces had slowed their offensive operations near Lyman, conducting infiltration missions but failing to gain a foothold. Ukrainian forces maintained control of Lyman and its railroad station, with assessments indicating Russian forces unlikely to seize the Fortress Belt in 2026 without capturing Lyman first.
Russian 3rd Combined Arms Army Stalls East of Sloviansk and Lyman Offensive Slows
Military observers reported that the Russian offensive toward the critical Fortress Belt and Lyman had ground to a halt, with forces unable to sustain the intensity of their earlier mechanized pushes.
Russian forces decrease offensive tempo in Lyman after mechanized assault; focus shifts to Kostyantynivka
December 31 drops to 81%6%
Following a battalion-sized mechanized assault, Russian forces reduced their offensive activity in Lyman and resumed infiltration tactics, with ISW noting a shift in focus to Kostyantynivka, dampening prospects for Lyman capture.
Russian forces maintain offensive pressure near Lyman with mechanized assaults
December 31 rises to 81%2%
Russian forces continued mechanized assaults near Lyman, including a 500-strong push intercepted by Ukrainian drones and artillery, indicating persistent Russian efforts to capture the area and supporting sustained market confidence.
Ukrainian forces repel Russian infiltration attempts in Lyman area
December 31 drops to 79%7%
Despite ongoing Russian attacks and infiltration missions around Lyman on March 27-28, Ukrainian forces successfully counterattacked and maintained control, with Russian forces failing to gain a foothold. This dampened market optimism, with prices declining from 86% to 79%.
ISW reports ongoing fighting near Lyman with contested advances
ISW reported Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding villages but made no confirmed advances, with Ukrainian forces maintaining tactical initiative, sustaining market uncertainty about Russian capture.
Russian Offensive Activity Slows Near Lyman as Forces Fail to Gain Foothold
Ukrainian military officials reported a reduction in Russian offensive activity in the Lyman direction, noting that Russian forces failed to establish a foothold in the city and may shift their focus elsewhere.
Russian forces reduce offensive tempo but continue infiltration missions near Lyman
December 31 dips to 80%2%
Following intense operations, Russian forces decreased large-scale attacks but maintained infiltration efforts around Lyman. Ukrainian forces held their positions, preventing Russian capture of the railroad station, which kept market sentiment cautious.
Russia launches Spring-Summer 2026 offensive with mechanized assaults around Lyman
December 31 drops to 77%9%
Russian forces initiated their offensive with mechanized attacks near Lyman, signaling intent to advance on Slovyansk from the northeast. However, they failed to make significant gains, leading to a shift in focus to Kostyantynivka. This initial failure contributed to a decline in market confidence for Russia capturing Lyman by year-end.
Russian forces fail to gain foothold in Lyman after intensified assaults
December 31 rises to 81%2%
Despite intensified offensive operations and infiltration missions near Lyman, Russian forces failed to secure a foothold in the city. Ukrainian forces reportedly advanced in eastern Lyman and continued to repel Russian assaults, leading to a market reassessment of the likelihood of Russian capture by year-end.
Ukrainian advances in eastern Lyman limit Russian offensive tempo
December 31 drops to 79%11%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces advancing in eastern Lyman, while Russian forces reduced offensive operations and focused on infiltration, maintaining contested control and limiting Russian capture prospects.
Ukrainian forces advance in eastern Lyman, Russian assaults stall
December 31 rises to 81%1%
On March 28, Ukrainian forces advanced in eastern Lyman while Russian forces reduced activity and failed to gain footholds, indicating Ukrainian control over key positions including the railroad station remained intact.
Russian forces reduce activity near Lyman amid continued Ukrainian resistance
December 31 rises to 82%1%
By March 28, Russian forces had reduced offensive activity near Lyman but continued infiltration missions. Ukrainian forces reportedly advanced in eastern Lyman, indicating sustained Ukrainian control and resistance to Russian capture efforts.
Russian forces continue offensive near Lyman but make no confirmed advances
December 31 drops to 81%6%
Despite ongoing attacks near Lyman and claims of advances into southern Lyman, no confirmed territorial gains were reported by ISW, leading to some market price stabilization and slight decline.
Ukrainian Forces Advance in Eastern Lyman as Russian Infiltration Missions Fail to Gain Ground
December 31 dips to 79%2%
Geolocated footage confirmed that Ukrainian forces made successful advances in eastern Lyman, while Russian operations in the area were limited to infiltration missions that failed to change control of the terrain.
Ukrainian partisans sabotage railway logistics supporting Russian forces near Lyman
December 31 rises to 81%1%
On March 26, Ukrainian partisan group Atesh reported sabotage of railway infrastructure critical for Russian logistics in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions. This disruption likely hindered Russian offensive capabilities near Lyman, supporting Ukrainian defense and maintaining market skepticism about Russian capture by year-end.
Russian forces claim advances near Lyman amid ongoing fighting
December 31 rises to 81%2%
Russian milbloggers claimed advances in multiple directions around Lyman, including northeastern and southeastern areas, while Ukrainian forces counterattacked. This mixed but active combat environment kept market expectations elevated for a possible Russian capture.
Russian milbloggers claim advances near Lyman but Ukrainian forces counterattack
On March 25-26, Russian milbloggers claimed advances in areas around Lyman, including northeast and southeast sectors, while Ukrainian forces reportedly counterattacked near Rai-Oleksandrivka. This ongoing contested fighting kept market prices elevated but below certainty for Russian capture.
Ukrainian partisan sabotage and Russian claims of advances near Lyman
December 31 rises to 81%1%
In late March, Ukrainian partisans sabotaged railway infrastructure critical to Russian logistics near Lyman, impacting Russian offensive capabilities. Concurrently, Russian milbloggers claimed advances in areas around Lyman, though some claims were disputed. These mixed developments contributed to market stabilization around 79-81% probability for Russian capture by year-end.
Ukrainian partisans sabotage Russian railroad logistics near Lyman
December 31 drops to 67%12%
The Atesh Crimea-based Ukrainian partisan group disabled a railway relay cabinet near occupied Luhansk City, disrupting Russian logistics critical for operations in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions, impacting ammunition and spare parts deliveries.
Russian forces attacked near Lyman but made no confirmed advances
December 31 dips to 79%3%
Russian forces continued offensive operations around Lyman but failed to secure any confirmed territorial gains, with Ukrainian forces counterattacking and disrupting Russian logistics. This contributed to market uncertainty and a slight decline in the probability of Russian capture.
Ukrainian sabotage disrupts Russian railway logistics near Lyman
December 31 dips to 82%4%
Ukrainian partisan groups disabled critical railway infrastructure supporting Russian logistics in the Lyman direction, hampering Russian supply lines and limiting their offensive capabilities. This contributed to doubts about Russia's ability to capture Lyman's railroad station soon.
Ukrainian forces liberate territory near Lyman amid ongoing Russian assaults
December 31 rises to 81%2%
On March 26, Ukrainian forces liberated Berezove southeast of Oleksandrivka, eliminating a Russian salient, and Ukrainian partisan groups sabotaged Russian railway logistics critical for operations near Lyman. These developments tempered market confidence but did not reverse the overall trend toward Russian capture by year-end.
Ukrainian forces repel multiple Russian attacks near Lyman
December 31 drops to 79%7%
In March 2026, Ukrainian forces successfully repelled Russian assaults involving heavy armored vehicles in the Lyman sector, preventing Russian advances toward the city and its railroad station. This defensive success contributed to early market confidence in a 'No' outcome for Russian capture.
Russian forces continue offensive operations near Lyman but make no advances
December 31 rises to 81%2%
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area near Lyman but did not advance, with Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions and maintaining control of Lyman and its railroad station.
Ukrainian partisans sabotage railway critical to Russian logistics near Lyman
December 31 rises to 81%2%
On March 26, Ukrainian agents disabled a railway relay cabinet near occupied Luhansk City, impacting Russian supply lines to the Kupyansk and Lyman directions. This sabotage likely hindered Russian offensive capabilities but did not reverse ongoing Russian pressure near Lyman.
Ukrainian partisans sabotage Russian logistics near Lyman, hampering offensive operations
December 31 rises to 81%2%
Ukrainian partisan group Atesh disabled a railway relay cabinet near occupied Luhansk City on March 26, disrupting Russian supply lines critical for operations in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions. This hindered Russian offensive capabilities and supported Ukrainian defense, reducing chances of Russian capture by year-end.
Ukrainian Partisans Sabotage Critical Russian Railway Logistics for Lyman Front
December 31 rises to 81%2%
The Ukrainian partisan group Atesh disabled a railway relay cabinet near occupied Luhansk City, disrupting ammunition and spare parts deliveries to Russian frontline units operating in the Lyman direction.
Ukrainian forces liberate Berezove, maintain control near Lyman
December 31 rises to 81%2%
On March 26, Ukrainian Air Assault Forces Command reported liberating Berezove, eliminating a Russian salient and demonstrating continued Ukrainian control in the region near Lyman, with no indication of Russian capture of the Lyman railroad station.
Russian forces attack near Lyman amid Ukrainian sabotage of rail infrastructure
December 31 rises to 80%1%
On March 25 and 26, Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding areas while Ukrainian partisans sabotaged railway infrastructure critical to Russian logistics, restricting Russian offensive capabilities and keeping the market price around 80%.
Ukrainian forces maintain control; Russian claims of advances near Lyman disputed
December 31 rises to 81%2%
By late March, Ukrainian forces continued to hold Lyman and surrounding areas, with Russian claims of territorial gains near Lyman disputed and no evidence of Russian control over the railroad station.
Ukrainian partisan sabotage disrupts Russian logistics near Lyman
December 31 rises to 81%2%
Ukrainian agents disabled a railway relay cabinet near occupied Luhansk City, impacting Russian ammunition and spare parts deliveries to frontline units in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions, hindering Russian offensive capabilities and reducing chances of capturing Lyman station.
Ukrainian counterattacks in Donetsk region undermine Russian plans including near Lyman
December 31 drops to 59%7%
ISW reported Ukrainian forces achieved significant tactical gains in Donetsk, forcing Russian redeployment and complicating Russian offensives near Lyman, reducing likelihood of Russian capture soon.
Russian forces launch unsuccessful mechanized assault near Lyman
December 31 drops to 78%9%
Russian forces attempted a regiment-sized mechanized assault near Lyman on March 19 but were repelled, with Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions and preventing territorial gains. This limited Russian progress near Lyman and maintained Ukrainian control over key areas.
Ukrainian sabotage disrupts Russian logistics near Lyman
Ukrainian partisan groups sabotaged railway infrastructure critical for Russian supply lines near Luhansk, impacting ammunition and spare parts deliveries to forces in the Lyman direction. This disruption likely hindered Russian offensive capabilities, contributing to market doubts about capture.
Ukrainian partisans sabotage railway near Lyman logistics hub
December 31 rises to 81%1%
A Ukrainian partisan group reported sabotage of a railway relay cabinet that serves the Lyman logistics route. The threat to Russian supply lines nudged the market back up toward 81 % by the end of March, as traders reassessed the difficulty of a Russian capture.
Russian forces intensify attacks near Lyman but fail to secure key positions
December 31 drops to 80%7%
Russian forces attacked multiple areas around Lyman but did not make confirmed advances, with Ukrainian counterattacks preventing territorial gains. This contributed to market uncertainty and a slight price decline.
Ukrainian forces maintain control of Lyman; Russian claims of capture disputed
ISW and Critical Threats reported that Russian claims of capturing nearby villages were likely exaggerated and that Ukrainian forces continued to hold Lyman. Ukrainian partisan sabotage of Russian logistics further impeded Russian offensive operations in the Lyman direction.
Ukrainian forces report liberation of Berezove near Lyman, Russian claims of advances disputed
December 31 rises to 81%2%
Ukrainian Air Assault Forces Command reported liberating Berezove, eliminating a Russian salient near Lyman. Russian claims of advances in the Lyman area were denied by Ukrainian sources, reinforcing that Russia had not captured Lyman. This confirmed Ukrainian control and influenced market confidence in a 'No' resolution.
Ukrainian partisans sabotage railroad infrastructure disrupting Russian logistics near Lyman
December 31 rises to 81%2%
Ukrainian partisan group Atesh disabled railway relay cabinets near occupied Luhansk City, impacting Russian supply lines critical for operations in the Lyman direction, limiting Russian offensive capabilities and contributing to doubts about Russian advances.
Ukrainian partisans sabotage Russian railway critical for Lyman operations
December 31 rises to 81%2%
On March 26, Ukrainian partisan group Atesh disabled a railway relay cabinet near occupied Luhansk, disrupting Russian supply lines critical for operations in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions. This hindered Russian offensive capabilities and contributed to doubts about Russian capture of Lyman by year-end.
Russian forces continue attacks near Lyman but no capture confirmed
December 31 rises to 81%2%
Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding villages on March 25 and 26, but Ukrainian sources denied Russian claims of territorial gains. Ukrainian partisan sabotage further disrupted Russian logistics, indicating ongoing fighting without Russian capture of the Lyman railroad station.
Ukrainian partisans sabotage railway infrastructure critical to Russian logistics near Lyman
December 31 drops to 79%7%
The Atesh partisan group disabled a railway relay cabinet near occupied Luhansk City, disrupting Russian supply lines to forces in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions. This hindered Russian offensive capabilities and contributed to the market's initial decline in confidence for a Russian capture of Lyman by year-end.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims Spring-Summer 2026 offensive begins
December 31 rises to 81%1%
The Russian Ministry of Defense announced the start of the Spring-Summer 2026 offensive, which includes capturing Lyman as a key objective, increasing market uncertainty about the timeline for Russian control.
Putin warns Russia will extend gains if peace talks fail
December 31 jumps to 86%7%
Putin publicly stated Russia would seek to extend territorial gains in Ukraine if peace talks fail, signaling intent to continue offensives including around Lyman. This statement briefly supported market optimism for Russian capture by year-end.
ISW: Russia unprepared for Lyman offensive amid Kremlin crackdown
June 30 plunges to 18%58%
ISW analysis of a Kremlin internal crackdown highlighted that Russia had not completed preparations for a Lyman offensive, suggesting a slowdown in Russian momentum. The “June 30” price dropped sharply from 76 % to 18 % over the following week.
Russian forces fail to prepare adequately for spring offensive including Lyman assault
December 31 rises to 81%2%
On March 25, Ukrainian military observers noted Russian forces failed to complete preparations for the assault on Lyman, critical for their spring offensive. This assessment indicated low likelihood of Russian capture of Lyman in the near term, impacting market confidence.
Russian forces launch spring-summer offensive with mechanized assaults near Lyman
December 31 drops to 79%7%
Russian forces initiated their spring-summer 2026 offensive with mechanized attacks around Lyman, aiming to advance toward Slovyansk, but failed to make significant gains, indicating early challenges in capturing Lyman.
Russian forces intensify attacks near Lyman but fail to capture key positions
December 31 rises to 81%2%
By late March, Russian forces continued attacks near Lyman and surrounding settlements but failed to make tactically significant advances or capture the city. Ukrainian forces reported counterattacks and Russian preparations for further offensives, sustaining market optimism but reflecting ongoing contested control.
Military Analysts Report Russian Forces Failed to Adequately Prepare for Lyman Offensive
December 31 dips to 79%1%
Military observers noted that the Russian Western Grouping of Forces failed to complete preparations for the assault on Lyman, which is critical for their broader offensive against Slovyansk and Kramatorsk.
Russian spring offensive preparations and attacks near Lyman reported by ISW
December 31 drops to 80%7%
ISW noted Russian forces preparing for a spring-summer offensive with attacks near Lyman, but also assessed that Russian forces were unlikely to make significant advances without seizing Lyman first, reflecting ongoing fighting and limited progress.
Russian spring-summer offensive preparations and attacks near Lyman
December 31 rises to 87%1%
Russian forces undertook preparations and launched assaults near Lyman, including strikes on logistics and river crossings to isolate Ukrainian forces. Despite these efforts, ISW assessed that Russian forces failed to make tactically significant advances, maintaining Ukrainian control over Lyman and its railroad station, which kept market prices high but uncertain.
Russian forces continue attacks near Lyman but fail to advance
December 31 dips to 81%1%
Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding settlements on March 24 and 25 but did not make significant advances or capture Lyman. Ukrainian forces continued to contest the area, and sabotage of Russian logistics further hindered Russian offensive capabilities.
Russian forces launch mechanized assault near Lyman but fail to secure significant gains
December 31 dips to 79%1%
Russian forces conducted a regiment-sized mechanized assault near Lyman on March 19 and continued attacks around March 24-25, but Ukrainian forces repelled these efforts, limiting Russian advances and maintaining control of key positions. This dampened market confidence in a near-term Russian capture of Lyman.
Russian spring-summer offensive in Lyman direction shows limited progress
December 31 rises to 81%3%
Between March 17 and 25, Russian forces intensified mechanized and motorized assaults in the Lyman direction as part of their spring-summer offensive. Despite these efforts, Russian forces failed to seize Lyman or its railroad station, and Ukrainian forces continued to hold key positions, leading to market stabilization around 79-81%.
Military Observers Report Russian Failure to Prepare for Lyman Assault
December 31 dips to 79%3%
Reports emerged detailing that the Russian Western Grouping of Forces failed to complete necessary preparations for the assault on Lyman, which is critical for their broader offensive.
Russian spring-summer offensive begins with mechanized assaults near Lyman
December 31 drops to 78%8%
Russian forces launched mechanized and motorized assaults in the Borova and Lyman directions starting March 17-19, aiming to capture Lyman as a critical objective for further offensives. However, Ukrainian observers noted Russian preparations were incomplete and Russian forces faced resistance, limiting their progress. This initial offensive raised market expectations but uncertainty remained about success.
Russian forces fail to complete preparations for Lyman assault, Ukrainian forces maintain control
December 31 drops to 81%6%
Russian forces failed to adequately prepare for their spring-summer offensive including the assault on Lyman, which is critical for advancing on Slovyansk and Kramatorsk; Ukrainian forces continued to hold Lyman and repelled attacks in late March.
Russian spring offensive preparations incomplete; infiltration attempts near Lyman
December 31 drops to 56%5%
Russian forces failed to complete preparations for the spring offensive and conducted infiltration missions near Lyman without consolidating control. Ukrainian forces maintained defensive positions, limiting Russian advances and contributing to market uncertainty.
Russian military bloggers criticize Kremlin over war setbacks including Lyman offensive delays
December 31 drops to 61%7%
Russian military bloggers publicly criticized Kremlin and military command for systemic problems and slow progress, including delays in capturing Lyman, signaling internal issues and reducing market confidence.
Russian forces prepare for spring-summer offensive but fail to seize Lyman
December 31 rises to 81%2%
Russian forces undertook preparations and launched attacks near Lyman in late March but failed to capture the town or railroad station, indicating continued Ukrainian control and limiting the likelihood of Russian capture by December 31, 2025.
Military Observers Note Russian Failure to Prepare for Lyman Assault
December 31 dips to 79%2%
Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported that the Russian Western Grouping of Forces failed to complete its preparations for the assault on Lyman, which is critical for their broader spring offensive.
ISW reports Kremlin crackdown amid Russian military setbacks near Lyman
December 31 drops to 66%13%
ISW noted increased internal criticism and repression in Russia due to military failures, including stalled preparations for an assault on Lyman. This indicated Russian difficulties and lowered market confidence in a near-term capture.
Russian mechanized assault in Lyman direction with heavy equipment losses
Elements of the Russian 144th Motorized Rifle Division conducted a battalion-sized mechanized assault near Lyman, reportedly losing multiple tanks and infantry fighting vehicles to Ukrainian counterattacks. This indicated ongoing fierce fighting but no decisive Russian control, contributing to market uncertainty.
ISW: Russian mechanized assault near Lyman fails to make gains
December 31 plunges to 48%32%
ISW reported a failed Russian mechanized assault in the Lyman direction, confirming no territorial gain. The negative battlefield assessment helped push the market lower after earlier optimism.
Russian mechanized assault near Lyman fails to make advances
Russian forces conducted a mechanized assault in the Lyman direction on March 22 but did not make confirmed advances, with Ukrainian forces repelling the attack and maintaining control of the area.
Russian forces launch intensified ground assaults in Lyman direction
December 31 rises to 82%3%
On March 19-21, Russian forces conducted a roughly battalion-sized mechanized and motorized assault in the Lyman direction, with over 500 infantrymen and dozens of armored vehicles. This escalation likely supported market confidence in a possible Russian capture of Lyman station by year-end.
ISW Reports Russia Began Spring-Summer Offensive in Lyman to Target Slovyansk
December 31 rises to 82%4%
The Institute for the Study of War reported that Russia launched intensified ground operations in the Lyman direction as part of its Spring-Summer 2026 offensive, highlighting Lyman's role as a key strongpoint.
Russian battalion-sized mechanized assault in Lyman direction fails
December 31 dips to 86%1%
On March 19, Russian forces launched a large mechanized assault near Lyman but suffered heavy casualties and failed to capture the town or railroad station, reinforcing Ukrainian control.
Russian forces launch large mechanized assault near Lyman
December 31 rises to 87%1%
On March 19, Russian 1st Guards Tank Army and 20th Guards Combined Arms Army conducted a battalion-sized mechanized assault near Lyman with over 500 infantry and dozens of armored vehicles. This significant offensive effort reinforced market confidence in eventual Russian capture of Lyman.
ISW Reports Russian Offensive Against Ukraine's Fortress Belt Has Begun via Lyman
December 31 rises to 82%4%
The Institute for the Study of War assessed that Russia's spring-summer offensive had officially begun with intensified ground operations in the Lyman direction, though at an unsustainable casualty rate for the attackers.
Ukrainian Brigade Highlights Lyman as Key Strongpoint Blocking Russian Advance
Ukrainian military officials emphasized Lyman's role as a critical defensive stronghold, explaining that Russia must capture it before they can launch any viable offensive against Slovyansk and Kramatorsk.
Russian forces launch battalion-sized assault in Lyman direction but fail to capture town
December 31 rises to 87%1%
On March 19, Russian 1st Guards Tank Army and 20th Guards Combined Arms Army conducted a large mechanized assault in the Lyman direction with over 500 infantry and dozens of armored vehicles. Despite this, Russian forces did not capture Lyman or its railroad station by March 21.
Ukraine’s 3rd Army Corps repels Russia’s largest breakthrough attempt near Lyman
December 31 dips to 79%1%
On March 21, Ukraine’s 3rd Army Corps reported repelling a large Russian mechanized assault involving over 500 troops and dozens of armored vehicles near Lyman. This defensive success tempered market enthusiasm, causing a slight price dip but did not reverse the overall upward trend.
Ukrainian Forces Repel Russian Assault, Highlighting Lyman's Role as Key Strongpoint
December 31 rises to 82%4%
Following the repelled Russian assault, Ukrainian military spokespersons emphasized that Lyman remains a critical, heavily defended strongpoint blocking the Russian advance toward Slovyansk and Kramatorsk.
Large-scale Russian assault on Lyman axis repelled by Ukrainian forces
December 31 dips to 79%3%
Russian forces launched a battalion-sized mechanized assault involving over 500 infantry and dozens of armored vehicles near Lyman, but Ukrainian units repelled the attack, inflicting significant losses and preventing territorial gains.
Ukrainian forces repel large-scale Russian breakthrough attempt near Lyman
December 31 plunges to 61%20%
Russian forces launched simultaneous attacks on seven axes near Lyman with over 500 infantry and numerous vehicles, but Ukrainian units successfully repelled all attacks, inflicting heavy losses. This defensive success contributed to a market price decline reflecting doubts about Russian capture prospects.
Russian forces intensify assaults in Lyman direction but face strong Ukrainian resistance
December 31 rises to 87%2%
Russian mechanized assaults around Lyman increased, but Ukrainian forces repelled attacks and maintained control, preventing Russian capture of the railroad station and limiting territorial gains.
Russian battalion-sized assault launched in Lyman direction
December 31 rises to 87%2%
Russian forces conducted a large mechanized and motorized assault near Lyman on March 19, indicating a renewed push to capture the town. This event maintained market optimism with prices around 87% Yes.
ISW Reports Russia Has Begun Spring-Summer Offensive Targeting Lyman and Fortress Belt
December 31 rises to 80%1%
The Institute for the Study of War reported that Russia launched its anticipated spring-summer 2026 offensive, with the main effort focused on the Lyman direction to advance toward Slovyansk.
ISW reports Russian spring-summer offensive begins with intensified ground operations in Lyman direction
ISW assessed that Russian forces began their anticipated spring-summer 2026 offensive against Ukraine's Fortress Belt with intensified ground operations in the Lyman direction, raising market expectations for a Russian capture.
Russian assault in Lyman stalls; troops begin to withdraw
December 31 rises to 79%1%
Follow‑up reports confirmed the failed assault and noted Russian forces were pulling back, slightly easing market pessimism. Prices recovered modestly from 78 % to around 79‑80 % over the next two days.
Russia Launches Massive Battalion-Scale Mechanized Assault in Lyman Direction
December 31 drops to 79%7%
Russian forces initiated their anticipated spring-summer offensive with a massive 500-strong mechanized push near Lyman, which was successfully intercepted by Ukrainian forces.
Russia Launches Spring-Summer Offensive in Lyman Direction with Large Mechanized Assaults
December 31 rises to 82%3%
Russian forces initiated their anticipated Spring-Summer 2026 offensive against the Ukrainian Fortress Belt, conducting a massive battalion-sized mechanized and motorized assault in the Lyman direction on March 19.
Russian forces conduct large mechanized assault in Lyman direction
December 31 dips to 86%2%
Russian 1st Guards Tank Army and 20th Guards Combined Arms Army launched a battalion-sized mechanized assault in the Lyman direction, aiming to set conditions for further advances, but Ukrainian forces held key strongpoints including Lyman.
Russia begins spring-summer 2026 offensive in Lyman direction
December 31 drops to 80%7%
On March 21, ISW reported that Russian forces likely began their spring-summer 2026 offensive against Ukraine's Fortress Belt, including the Lyman direction, with mechanized assaults involving over 500 personnel and dozens of armored vehicles. Despite this, ISW assessed Russia was unlikely to seize the Fortress Belt in 2026, suggesting limited progress toward capturing Lyman railroad station.
Ukraine repels largest Russian mechanized breakthrough attempt near Lyman
December 31 surges to 85%58%
On March 21, Ukraine's 3rd Army Corps repelled a major Russian mechanized offensive involving over 500 troops and numerous armored vehicles on the Lyman-Borova axis, inflicting significant losses and halting Russian advances. This demonstrated Ukrainian defensive resilience and stalled Russian efforts to capture Lyman, causing a sharp increase in market confidence for Russian capture by year-end.
Russian forces advance toward Lyman in Kharkiv Oblast
December 31 dips to 78%4%
Russian forces launched an offensive in the Lyman direction, increasing pressure on Ukrainian defenses and initially boosting market confidence in a Russian capture.
Reports indicate stalled Russian advances near Lyman railroad station
December 31 drops to 79%8%
Military analysts reported that Russian forces had not made significant progress in capturing the Lyman railroad station, leading to a drop in market confidence from 87% to 79%. This suggested that Russian control over the station was unlikely in the near term.
Russia Intensifies Ground Assaults in Lyman Direction to Begin Spring-Summer Offensive
December 31 rises to 81%4%
Ukrainian military officials reported a massive, battalion-sized mechanized and motorized assault in the Lyman direction on March 19, signaling the official start of Russia's Spring-Summer 2026 offensive against the Fortress Belt.
Russian battalion-sized assault in Lyman direction intensifies
December 31 rises to 82%4%
Elements of Russian 1st Guards Tank Army and 20th Guards Combined Arms Army launched a battalion-sized mechanized and motorized assault near Lyman on March 19, indicating increased Russian efforts to capture the city. However, Ukrainian forces continued to resist, limiting Russian gains.
Russian Forces Launch Massive Battalion-Sized Mechanized Assault in Lyman Direction
December 31 dips to 82%4%
Russian forces intensified their Spring-Summer 2026 offensive by launching a massive, multi-pronged mechanized and motorized assault in the Lyman direction on March 19, utilizing over 500 infantrymen and dozens of armored vehicles.
Russian forces conduct battalion-sized mechanized assault in Lyman direction
December 31 rises to 80%1%
On March 19, Russian 1st Guards Tank Army and 20th Guards Combined Arms Army conducted a battalion-sized mechanized and motorized assault in the Lyman direction, involving over 500 infantry and dozens of armored vehicles. This marked intensified Russian efforts to capture Lyman and influenced market confidence in eventual Russian control.
Russian forces launch mechanized assaults around Lyman in spring offensive
December 31 drops to 78%8%
Russian military initiated a series of mechanized attacks around Lyman aiming to advance towards Slovyansk, signaling a prioritization of this area. This raised initial market confidence in a potential Russian capture of Lyman railroad station.
Ukrainian forces repel Russian assault involving over twenty vehicles in Lyman sector
December 31 drops to 82%5%
Ukrainian 66th Mechanized Brigade reported successfully repelling a significant Russian assault in the Lyman sector, maintaining control of key positions and preventing Russian capture of the city or railroad station. This bolstered market confidence in Ukrainian defense.
Russian tanks return in Lyman sector but face heavy Ukrainian resistance
December 31 drops to 78%8%
Russian mechanized assaults involving tanks resumed near Lyman, but Ukrainian forces effectively repelled attacks and destroyed Russian armored columns. This demonstrated Russian difficulties in capturing Lyman, contributing to a price drop in the market.
Ukrainian forces repel Russian attacks in Lyman sector
December 31 plunges to 61%18%
Ukrainian units, including the 66th Mechanized Brigade, repelled multiple Russian attacks in the Lyman direction, preventing Russian forces from gaining control and contributing to market skepticism about Russian capture.
Ukrainian observer says Russia repelled 18 attacks around Lyman
December 31 drops to 77%11%
Mashovets reported that Russian forces were repelled in a 18‑attack assault in the Lyman direction, suggesting a slowdown and coinciding with the price trough of 77 % on 20‑Mar.
Ukrainian forces repelled Russian mechanized assault in Lyman sector
December 31 dips to 80%2%
On March 20, Ukrainian forces, including the 66th Mechanized Brigade, repelled a Russian mechanized assault involving over twenty enemy vehicles in the Lyman direction. This successful defense reinforced Ukrainian control and reduced market confidence in Russian capture prospects.
Ukrainian counterattacks stall Russian advances near Lyman
December 31 drops to 77%10%
Ukrainian forces conducted counterattacks northwest of Lyman, striking Russian-occupied buildings and halting Russian progress. This reduced market confidence in Russian capture, causing a price trough.
Ukrainian forces repel Russian attack involving over twenty vehicles in Lyman sector
December 31 plunges to 60%20%
On March 20, Ukrainian forces successfully repelled a large-scale Russian attack in the Lyman direction, maintaining control of the area and signaling strong Ukrainian defense that diminished Russian capture prospects.
Ukrainian forces repel major Russian attack in Lyman sector
December 31 drops to 77%11%
Ukrainian 66th Mechanized Brigade and allied units repelled a large Russian assault involving over twenty enemy vehicles in the Lyman direction, demonstrating strong Ukrainian defense and reducing market confidence in Russian capture.
Ukrainian forces repel Russian mechanized assault in Lyman sector
December 31 drops to 80%6%
Ukrainian forces, including the 66th Mechanized Brigade and drone units, repelled a Russian assault involving over twenty enemy vehicles in the Lyman sector, preventing Russian forces from advancing and consolidating control over the area including the railroad station.
Russian forces launch assault on Lyman sector with mechanized units
December 31 drops to 79%7%
In March 2026, Russian troops intensified their efforts in the Lyman direction, launching assaults with dozens of vehicles and infantry, aiming to capture Lyman and advance toward Sloviansk. This increased activity initially raised market confidence in a possible Russian capture.
Ukrainian forces repel multiple Russian attacks in Lyman sector
December 31 drops to 79%7%
On March 20, Ukrainian forces successfully repelled 18 Russian attacks in the Lyman direction, maintaining control over key positions and preventing Russian advances toward the railroad station. This defensive success reduced market confidence in a near-term Russian capture of Lyman.
Russian advances stall amid Ukrainian resistance and counterattacks
May 31 drops to 12%13%
Reports indicated that Russian forces faced stiff Ukrainian resistance near Lyman, causing market prices to decline as the likelihood of Russian capture by May 31 diminished significantly.
Ukrainian forces repel intensified Russian attacks in Lyman sector
December 31 dips to 77%2%
On March 20, Ukrainian 66th Mechanized Brigade reported repelling Russian assaults involving more than twenty enemy vehicles in the Lyman sector, maintaining control and preventing Russian advances toward Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration.
Ukrainian 66th Mechanized Brigade reports destroying Russian vehicles in Lyman sector
December 31 dips to 77%2%
The 66th Mechanized Brigade reported repelling a Russian assault involving over twenty vehicles near Lyman, with some Russian troops retreating before reaching the frontline. This demonstrated strong Ukrainian defense and further decreased market confidence in Russian capture by year-end.
Ukrainian forces repel large Russian mechanized assault near Lyman
December 31 drops to 78%8%
On March 19-20, Ukrainian forces repelled a regiment-sized Russian mechanized assault near Lyman, destroying many Russian vehicles and forcing retreats. This demonstrated Ukrainian control and reduced market confidence in near-term Russian capture, reflected in price fluctuations.
Russia launches battalion-scale assault towards Lyman with mechanized forces
UK Defense Intelligence reported a large Russian mechanized assault near Lyman involving 500 personnel and up to 100 vehicles, signaling increased Russian efforts to capture the area, which supported high market prices in March.
Russia launches large mechanized assault on Lyman with heavy casualties
December 31 rises to 81%2%
On March 19, 2026, Russian forces from the 1st Guards Tank Army and 20th Guards Combined Arms Army launched a battalion-sized mechanized assault on Lyman involving over 500 infantry and dozens of armored vehicles. Despite suffering approximately 80% casualties, this marked the beginning of Russia's Spring-Summer 2026 offensive, significantly impacting market confidence in eventual capture.
Ukrainian Forces Repel Russia's Largest Mechanized Breakthrough Attempt on Lyman-Borova Axis
December 31 drops to 77%9%
Ukrainian forces successfully blocked a massive, seven-pronged Russian mechanized assault involving over 500 troops and dozens of armored vehicles, halting Russia's primary push toward Lyman.
Ukraine Repels Massive Russian Mechanized Assault in the Lyman Direction
December 31 drops to 77%9%
Russian forces launched a major battalion-sized mechanized and motorized assault in the Lyman direction, which was heavily defeated by Ukrainian drone and artillery strikes, causing a sharp drop in the market's confidence in a Russian breakthrough.
Russian forces launch battalion-sized mechanized assault near Lyman
December 31 drops to 81%5%
Russian forces initiated their spring-summer 2026 offensive with a large mechanized assault near Lyman, signaling intent to advance on Sloviansk from the northeast. Ukrainian forces repelled the attack, preventing significant territorial gains and causing a price drop in the market.
Russia launches battalion‑size mechanized assault toward Lyman
December 31 drops to 78%8%
Ukrainian officials reported a massive Russian mechanized assault in the Lyman direction, with over 500 infantry, dozens of armored vehicles and 100+ ATVs. The scale of the attack signaled a serious Russian offensive, causing a sharp sell‑off; the market fell from ~86 % on March 18 to 78 % on March 19.
Russian forces launch large mechanized assault in Lyman direction
December 31 drops to 78%8%
Russian forces conducted a battalion-sized mechanized and motorized assault near Lyman on March 19, marking the start of their spring-summer offensive, but Ukrainian forces repelled the attack, maintaining control of the area and the railroad station.
Russian mechanized assault on Lyman repelled by Ukrainian forces
December 31 drops to 78%9%
Russian forces launched a regiment-sized mechanized assault near Lyman on March 19, 2026, but Ukrainian units, including the 66th Mechanized Brigade, repelled the attack, destroying Russian vehicles and forcing retreats. This demonstrated Ukrainian defensive strength and hindered Russian progress toward capturing Lyman.
Ukraine repels Russia's largest mechanized assault near Lyman
December 31 drops to 79%7%
Ukraine's 3rd Army Corps successfully repelled a major Russian mechanized assault near Lyman involving over 500 troops and 100 vehicles, demonstrating strong Ukrainian resistance and causing a temporary market dip in confidence.
Russia launches battalion‑size assault on Lyman, Ukraine repels it
December 31 rises to 88%3%
UK Defence Intelligence reported a near‑battalion‑scale mechanised assault of ~500 Russian troops towards Lyman, which was subsequently repelled by Ukrainian forces. The news of a fresh large‑scale attack raised expectations of a Russian capture, nudging the “December 31” price up to a late‑March peak of 88 %.
Russian battalion-sized mechanized assault in Lyman direction signals start of Spring-Summer offensive
December 31 dips to 82%3%
Russian forces conducted a large mechanized assault near Lyman, deploying over 500 infantry and dozens of armored vehicles, indicating a major offensive push. However, Ukrainian forces repelled the assault, and Russian forces failed to gain foothold in Lyman, tempering market expectations.
Ukrainian drone strikes target Russian vehicles near Lyman
December 31 drops to 77%10%
Ukrainian drone operations intensified around Lyman in March 2026, targeting Russian vehicles and disrupting advances. This contributed to a market price dip as Russian progress appeared contested.
Russia Launches Large Battalion-Sized Mechanized Assault in Lyman Direction
December 31 drops to 78%8%
Russian forces initiated their anticipated Spring-Summer 2026 offensive with a massive battalion-sized mechanized and motorized assault in the Lyman direction, significantly increasing pressure on Ukrainian defenses.
Ukrainian Forces Repel Massive Russian Mechanized Assault in Lyman Direction
December 31 drops to 78%8%
Russian forces launched a major, regiment-sized mechanized and motorized assault in the Lyman direction, which was successfully repelled by Ukrainian forces using heavy drone strikes and artillery.
Russian mechanized assault in Lyman direction repelled by Ukrainian forces
December 31 drops to 80%6%
Russian forces launched a regiment-sized mechanized assault in the Lyman direction on March 19, but Ukrainian forces struck them to prevent accumulation and maintain control, limiting Russian gains and sustaining market uncertainty.
Ukrainian forces repel major Russian mechanized assault near Lyman
December 31 drops to 79%7%
On March 19, Russian forces launched a large battalion-sized mechanized and motorized assault near Lyman involving over 500 infantry and dozens of armored vehicles. Ukrainian units, including the 66th Mechanized Brigade, successfully repelled the attack, destroying Russian vehicles and forcing some Russian troops to retreat without reaching the frontline. This setback caused a sharp market price drop from 86% to 79% Yes.
Russian mechanized assault launched in Lyman direction
December 31 rises to 80%1%
Russian 1st Guards Tank Army and 20th Guards Combined Arms Army conducted a battalion-sized mechanized assault in the Lyman direction, signaling the start of the spring-summer offensive and raising market confidence.
Russian mechanized assault repelled near Lyman with heavy losses
December 31 drops to 81%5%
On March 19, Russian forces launched a regiment-sized mechanized assault in the Lyman direction involving over 500 infantry and dozens of armored vehicles. Ukrainian forces repelled the attack, inflicting heavy losses and preventing Russian control of Lyman, which contributed to a drop in market probability.
Russian forces launch large-scale assault on Lyman axis but fail to capture territory
December 31 drops to 79%8%
On March 19, Russian forces conducted a battalion-sized mechanized assault involving over 500 infantry and dozens of armored vehicles in the Lyman direction. Ukrainian forces repelled the attack, inflicting significant losses and preventing any territorial gains, reinforcing doubts about Russian capture of Lyman.
Ukrainian mechanized counterattack in Lyman pushes Russian forces back
December 31 drops to 79%8%
A Ukrainian mechanized assault in the Lyman direction on March 19, part of a broader Russian spring-summer offensive, resulted in Russian forces being pushed back, reducing the likelihood of Russian capture of Lyman.
Russian regiment-sized mechanized assault in Lyman direction repelled
December 31 drops to 80%6%
Russian forces launched a regiment-sized mechanized assault in the Lyman direction but were unsuccessful, with Ukrainian forces intercepting armored vehicles and repelling the attack, maintaining control of Lyman including the railroad station.
Russian mechanized assault near Lyman repelled by Ukrainian forces
December 31 drops to 80%6%
On March 19, Russian 1st Guards Tank Army and 20th Guards Combined Arms Army conducted a large mechanized assault near Lyman with over 500 infantry and dozens of armored vehicles. Ukrainian forces repelled the attack, preventing Russian capture of the area and maintaining Ukrainian control over the railroad station.
Russia Launches Massive Battalion-Sized Mechanized Assault in Lyman Direction
December 31 drops to 79%7%
Russian forces initiated their anticipated Spring-Summer 2026 offensive with a large-scale mechanized and motorized assault in the Lyman direction, which was ultimately repelled by Ukrainian forces.
Ukraine launches counterattacks in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia to disrupt Russian advances
June 30 plunges to 52%16%
Ukraine's successful counterattacks in key regions forced Russia to divert resources, complicating its offensive plans including the push towards Lyman. This development led to a notable decline in market confidence for Russia capturing Lyman by June 30 and December 31.
Russian battalion-scale mechanized assault near Lyman repelled by Ukrainian 3rd Army Corps
December 31 drops to 79%7%
On March 19, Russian forces launched a near battalion-sized assault with 500 personnel and up to 100 vehicles near Lyman, which was intercepted and halted by Ukrainian forces using drones and remote mines. This demonstrated Ukrainian defensive effectiveness and reduced market confidence in imminent Russian capture of Lyman.
Peace talks stall as parties remain divided
June 30 drops to 55%13%
Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine failed to produce a breakthrough, leading to a decline in the perceived likelihood of a near-term negotiated settlement for the territory.
Russian 1st Guards Tank Army and 20th Guards Combined Arms Army conduct mechanized assault near Lyman
December 31 rises to 87%1%
On March 19, Russian forces launched a battalion-sized mechanized and motorized assault in the Lyman direction, attacking in multiple prongs with significant infantry and armored vehicles. This marked the start of the Russian spring-summer offensive, raising market confidence in a Russian capture by December 31, 2025.
Ukrainian Forces Decimate Massive Russian Mechanized Assault Near Lyman
December 31 drops to 78%8%
Russia launched a major battalion-sized mechanized and motorized assault in the Lyman direction to kickstart its spring offensive, but Ukrainian drone and artillery defenses successfully repelled the push, inflicting heavy casualties.
Russian forces attacked near Lyman but Ukrainian forces counterattacked
December 31 drops to 79%7%
Russian attacks near Lyman continued, but Ukrainian counterattacks and drone strikes challenged Russian logistics and artillery, limiting Russian control gains and causing a slight market price dip to 79%.
Russia Launches Massive Regiment-Sized Mechanized Assault in Lyman Direction
December 31 drops to 78%8%
Russian forces initiated their anticipated spring-summer offensive with a massive, multi-pronged mechanized assault near Lyman, which was heavily repelled by Ukrainian forces using drones and artillery.
Russian battalion-sized assault in Lyman direction reported
December 31 drops to 80%6%
On March 19, Ukrainian sources reported a large Russian mechanized and motorized assault in the Lyman direction involving over 500 infantry and dozens of armored vehicles, indicating intensified Russian efforts to capture Lyman, sustaining market confidence.
Russian spring-summer offensive begins with attacks near Lyman
December 31 jumps to 88%8%
Russian forces launched mechanized assaults near Lyman and Borova between March 17-19 as part of their spring-summer offensive. Ukrainian forces repelled attacks involving over twenty enemy vehicles, inflicting heavy losses and preventing Russian advances toward Lyman's outskirts.
Renewed Russian mechanized assaults around Lyman meet heavy resistance
December 31 rises to 87%1%
Russian tanks returned to the Lyman area after a year in hiding, but Ukrainian forces inflicted significant losses, limiting Russian gains. This contributed to market stabilization with prices holding near peak levels for the December 31 outcome.
Russian battalion-scale assault launched near Lyman
December 31 jumps to 87%9%
On March 19, Russian forces launched a near battalion-sized mechanized assault with over 500 personnel and armored vehicles towards Lyman, signaling a major offensive push. This led to a spike in market confidence for Russian capture.
Russia Launches Large-Scale Mechanized Assault in Lyman Direction
December 31 drops to 79%7%
Russian forces initiated their Spring-Summer 2026 offensive with a massive, battalion-sized mechanized assault in the Lyman direction, utilizing over 500 infantrymen and dozens of armored vehicles.
Russia begins spring-summer 2026 offensive including Lyman direction
December 31 rises to 81%3%
Russian forces launched a mechanized assault in the Lyman direction on March 19 as part of their spring-summer offensive. This renewed offensive effort increased market optimism about eventual Russian capture of Lyman, pushing prices back up to around 81%.
Large-scale Russian mechanized assault near Lyman repelled by Ukrainian forces
December 31 drops to 80%6%
On March 19, Russian forces launched a battalion-sized mechanized assault in the Lyman direction, but Ukrainian forces repelled the attack, preventing Russian capture of Lyman or its railroad station. This caused a temporary drop in market confidence.
Russian forces launch near battalion-size assault towards Lyman
December 31 rises to 88%3%
On March 19, 2026, Russian forces launched a mechanized assault of about 500 personnel and up to 100 vehicles towards Lyman, indicating intensified Russian efforts to capture the city, which temporarily increased market confidence in a December 31 capture.
Ukrainian drone strikes and advances near Lyman disrupt Russian operations
December 31 dips to 87%1%
Ukrainian forces increased drone strikes targeting Russian artillery and logistics near Lyman, and geolocated footage confirmed Ukrainian advances in the area, countering Russian assaults and affecting market sentiment by slightly reducing confidence in Russian capture.
Russia launches largest mechanized assault toward Lyman in months
December 31 rises to 87%1%
On March 19, over 500 Russian infantrymen from elite units launched a large-scale mechanized assault on Lyman's approaches in seven prongs, marking the start of the spring-summer offensive. This significant offensive increased market confidence in Russia eventually capturing Lyman.
Ukrainian forces defend Lyman foothold amid intensified Russian assaults
December 31 drops to 82%5%
Ukrainian military observers reported ongoing fighting to defend Lyman, with Ukrainian counterattacks delaying Russian advances. Russian forces increased assaults and artillery strikes, but Ukrainian adaptations in drone tactics helped regain territory and reduce Russian assaults.
Russian forces launch mechanized assaults near Lyman to begin Spring-Summer offensive
December 31 rises to 90%3%
Russian forces initiated their Spring-Summer 2026 offensive with mechanized assaults around Lyman, aiming to advance on Slovyansk from the northeast. This marked the start of intensified ground operations in the Lyman direction but did not yield significant territorial gains.
Ukraine launches counterattacks in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions
December 31 drops to 78%9%
Ukraine's successful counterattacks forced Russia to divert resources from offensive operations, reducing the likelihood of Russian capture of Lyman in the near term and causing a market price decline.
Russian military intensifies attacks on Ukrainian logistics hubs including Lyman area
December 31 drops to 80%7%
Russian forces escalated artillery barrages and drone strikes targeting Ukrainian defenses near Lyman, aiming to weaken resistance ahead of ground offensives, which supported market confidence in eventual Russian capture.
Ukrainian brigade spokesperson confirms no Russian presence in Lyman
A Ukrainian brigade spokesperson stated there was no Russian presence in Lyman, and ISW had not observed Russian forces operating there since February 23, 2026, indicating Ukrainian control of the area including the railroad station.
Ukrainian forces clear contested parts of Lyman amid Russian infiltration attempts
December 31 dips to 86%1%
Ukrainian brigade spokesperson reported no Russian presence in Lyman, indicating Ukrainian forces had cleared contested areas. Russian forces continued infiltration missions but failed to consolidate control, maintaining a contested status of the railroad station area.
Russian General Gerasimov claims control over half of Lyman, but ISW assesses contested status
On March 17, Russian General Gerasimov reiterated claims of controlling over half of Lyman, likely as part of cognitive warfare, but ISW assessed that Ukrainian forces had cleared contested sections earlier. This mixed information caused some market uncertainty but overall sustained belief in Russian advances.
Ukrainian brigade spokesperson states no Russian presence in Lyman
December 31 dips to 82%4%
A Ukrainian brigade spokesperson reported on March 17 that there was no Russian presence in Lyman, indicating Ukrainian forces likely cleared contested parts of the town, reducing likelihood of Russian capture by year-end.
ISW exposes Gerasimov's inflated battlefield claims
December 31 plunges to 60%27%
ISW reported that General Valery Gerasimov claimed advances near Lyman, Sloviansk, and Kostyantynivka, but frontline data showed no Russian presence in Lyman and minimal control in other areas, contributing to market skepticism.
ISW reports Russian General Staff exaggerates battlefield gains near Lyman
December 31 drops to 79%8%
ISW reported that Russian claims of capturing over half of Lyman were false, with no observed Russian presence since late February. This undermined confidence in Russian advances and led to a market price decline.
Ukrainian brigade reports no Russian presence in Lyman, contradicting Russian claims
December 31 dips to 86%1%
A Ukrainian brigade spokesperson stated on March 17 that there was no Russian presence in Lyman, indicating Ukrainian forces had cleared contested parts. This contradicted Russian claims of control, causing market uncertainty but supporting the view that Russia had not captured the station.
Ukrainian forces report no Russian presence in Lyman
On March 17, a Ukrainian brigade spokesperson stated there was no Russian presence in Lyman, and ISW had not observed Russian forces operating there since February 23, indicating Ukrainian control and negating Russian capture of the railroad station.
ISW reports no Russian presence in Lyman since February 23
ISW and Ukrainian brigade spokespersons reported no evidence of Russian forces operating in Lyman since February 23, indicating Ukrainian control and undermining Russian claims of advances. This stabilized the market price around mid-March.
Ukrainian Forces Clear Lyman of All Russian Presence
December 31 dips to 86%1%
A spokesperson for a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Lyman direction confirmed that there was no Russian presence inside Lyman, debunking previous claims of Russian control and demonstrating successful Ukrainian clearing operations.
Ukrainian brigade spokesperson reports no Russian presence in Lyman since February 23
On March 17, a Ukrainian brigade spokesperson stated there was no Russian presence in Lyman, and ISW confirmed no evidence of Russian forces operating there since February 23. This contradicted Russian claims of control and caused market uncertainty, tempering price gains.
Ukrainian forces confirm no Russian presence in Lyman despite Russian claims
December 31 dips to 86%1%
On March 17, a Ukrainian brigade spokesperson stated there was no Russian presence in Lyman, contradicting Russian General Gerasimov's claims of control over half of Lyman. This undermined Russian assertions of rapid advances and likely contributed to market skepticism about Russian capture of Lyman.
Russian General Staff Chief Gerasimov exaggerates control over Lyman, ISW reports no Russian presence
Gerasimov claimed Russian forces controlled over half of Lyman, but ISW and Ukrainian sources reported no Russian presence in Lyman since late February, indicating Ukrainian control. This cognitive warfare attempt to mislead about battlefield realities caused market skepticism and price stabilization.
Russian General Gerasimov Exaggerates Purported Battlefield Gains in Lyman Direction
June 30 plunges to 51%17%
Russian Army General Valery Gerasimov reiterated claims that Russian forces control over half of Lyman, which analysts assessed as an exaggeration to create a false impression of rapid advances.
Ukrainian sources report no Russian presence in Lyman, contradicting Russian claims
December 31 dips to 86%1%
On March 17, Ukrainian brigade spokesperson stated there was no Russian presence in Lyman, suggesting Ukrainian forces had cleared contested sections. However, Russian claims of control over half of Lyman were assessed as exaggerations, reflecting ongoing contested control and uncertainty in the area.
Russian General Gerasimov exaggerates territorial gains including Lyman claims
December 31 dips to 86%1%
Gerasimov claimed Russian forces seized 70% of Lyman, but ISW found no evidence of Russian control, highlighting misinformation that affected market confidence.
Russian forces conduct battalion-sized assault near Lyman
Elements of the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army and 20th Guards Combined Arms Army launched a mechanized and motorized assault in the Lyman direction on March 19, fielding over 500 infantry and dozens of armored vehicles. This escalation indicated Russia's commitment to capturing Lyman, reinforcing market optimism.
Ukraine Denies Russian Presence in Lyman Following Gerasimov's Claims
Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov claimed Russian forces controlled over half of Lyman, but Ukrainian military spokespersons clarified there was no Russian presence in the city, indicating Ukrainian forces had cleared previously contested areas.
Ukrainian Forces Clear Contested Sections of Lyman and Adapt Drone Tactics
December 31 drops to 79%7%
A Ukrainian military spokesperson confirmed there was no Russian presence in Lyman, indicating that Ukrainian forces had cleared previously contested areas. Additionally, Ukrainian forces adapted their drone tactics to successfully interdict Russian ground lines of communication and launch counterattacks.
Gerasimov Falsely Claims Russian Forces Control Over Half of Lyman
Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov reiterated claims of controlling over half of Lyman to project rapid battlefield progress, though ISW assessed Ukrainian forces had previously cleared those contested sections.
Ukrainian brigade spokesperson stated no Russian presence in Lyman
December 31 drops to 78%8%
On March 17, a Ukrainian brigade spokesperson reported that there was no Russian presence in Lyman, indicating Ukrainian forces had cleared previously contested parts. This statement likely dampened market expectations for imminent Russian capture of the Lyman railroad station.
Russian General Gerasimov claims over half of Lyman controlled by Russia, ISW disputes
December 31 rises to 88%1%
General Gerasimov claimed Russian forces controlled over half of Lyman, presenting it as recent progress. ISW assessed Ukrainian forces had cleared contested sections earlier and found no evidence of Russian control in Lyman. This claim likely influenced market optimism but was contradicted by independent analysis.
Ukrainian Military Confirms Complete Absence of Russian Forces in Lyman
A spokesperson for a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Lyman direction stated that there was no Russian presence in Lyman, contradicting previous claims by Russian General Valery Gerasimov.
Ukrainian Military Confirms No Russian Presence in Lyman, Clearing Contested Areas
December 31 dips to 86%1%
A spokesperson for a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Lyman direction stated that there is no Russian presence in Lyman, indicating that Ukrainian forces had successfully cleared previously contested parts of the city.
Gerasimov says Russia now controls more than half of Lyman
December 31 rises to 90%2%
Gen. Valery Gerasimov claimed that Russian forces now controlled "over half of Lyman," repeating a December 29 statement. The exaggerated claim created a perception of Russian progress and pushed the market up, hitting a 90 % high on March 13 before the claim was publicly noted on March 17.
Ukrainian Brigade Confirms No Russian Presence in Lyman, Debunking Gerasimov's Claims
December 31 dips to 86%1%
A spokesperson for a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Lyman direction stated there was no Russian presence in Lyman, contradicting Russian General Gerasimov's claims that Russian forces controlled over half of the city.
Putin warns Russia will extend gains if talks fail
Putin’s statement that Russia would push to solidify territorial gains, including Lyman, if peace talks stalled reinforced market belief in a Russian capture, keeping the December 31 price above 80%.
Russian forces attack near Lyman and surrounding villages amid ongoing offensives
December 31 rises to 88%1%
On March 15-16, Russian forces attacked near Lyman itself and in nearby villages such as Drobysheve, Svyatohirsk, Yampil, and Dibrova, continuing offensive operations. Despite these attacks, ISW did not confirm Russian control of the Lyman railroad station, reflecting persistent uncertainty in the market.
Gerasimov repeats sweeping claim of major gains, including Lyman progress
December 31 jumps to 81%14%
Gerasimov’s March 16 speech again inflated Russian gains, briefly lifting market confidence (price rose from 67 % to 81 % by March 28).
Russian forces continue assaults near Lyman amid heavy fighting
Reports from mid-March indicate ongoing Russian attempts to break through Ukrainian defenses near Lyman, with heavy combat engagements and significant losses on both sides. This sustained pressure likely maintained high market confidence in eventual capture by year-end.
Russian General Staff chief exaggerates Russian gains near Lyman
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Russian General Staff chief Valery Gerasimov claimed significant Russian advances near Lyman and other areas, asserting control over large portions of Lyman. However, ISW analysis contradicted these claims, showing only minimal Russian presence. This dissonance contributed to market volatility and skepticism about Russian capture prospects by mid-2026.
Russian forces launch multiple attacks near Lyman but face Ukrainian resistance
December 31 drops to 79%8%
On March 14-15, Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding areas, but Ukrainian forces held key positions and counterattacked, preventing Russian advances. This maintained Ukrainian control over Lyman, impacting market confidence negatively for Russian capture.
Russian forces advance near Lyman and other settlements in eastern Ukraine
DeepStateMap reported Russian advances near Lyman and other areas in Kharkiv, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhya oblasts, signaling initial Russian offensive activity in the region. This early offensive activity supported higher market confidence in Russian capture of Lyman.
Ukrainian forces advance near Lyman amid Russian mechanized assaults
December 31 dips to 86%1%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian advances in southern Yampil southeast of Lyman, while Russian forces launched mechanized assaults in the Lyman direction. This indicated active fighting but no decisive Russian capture of Lyman, maintaining uncertainty about control of the railroad station.
Ukrainian forces contest Russian advances near Lyman
ISW reported ongoing fighting near Lyman with Ukrainian forces advancing in nearby areas, indicating contested control and no clear Russian capture of the railroad station, which kept market confidence high but uncertain.
Russian forces conduct multiple attacks near Lyman and Slovyansk
December 31 rises to 87%1%
Between March 12 and 13, Russian forces attacked near Lyman and in the broader Slovyansk direction, indicating continued pressure and attempts to advance in the area. This sustained offensive activity supported the market's elevated confidence in Russian capture of Lyman.
Russian forces continue attacks near Lyman with no capture reported
December 31 rises to 88%1%
On March 12 and 13, Russian forces attacked near Lyman and adjacent areas, but Ukrainian drone strikes forced Russian MLRS withdrawals and prevented territorial gains, sustaining the market's belief that Russia had not captured the Lyman railroad station.
Russian forces conduct attacks near Lyman and surrounding villages
December 31 rises to 87%1%
Russian forces attacked near Lyman itself and multiple nearby villages on March 12-13, indicating continued offensive pressure in the Lyman direction. This sustained activity supported market confidence in eventual Russian capture.
Russian forces intensify attacks near Lyman but face Ukrainian drone strikes
December 31 dips to 86%2%
Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding areas on March 12-13, but Ukrainian drone strikes forced Russian MLRS units to withdraw from the frontline, limiting Russian offensive capabilities. This maintained Ukrainian control and contributed to market confidence in a 'No' outcome.
Russian forces attack near Lyman and surrounding villages
Russian forces launched attacks near Lyman and multiple nearby settlements on March 12 and 13, showing intensified efforts to capture the area. Despite this, no confirmed capture of the Lyman railroad station was reported, sustaining market optimism for a possible Russian capture.
Russian forces launch large mechanized assault near Lyman
December 31 rises to 90%3%
On March 13, Russian forces conducted a regiment-sized mechanized assault in the Lyman direction, deploying dozens of armored vehicles and infantry in an attempt to advance. Ukrainian drone strikes damaged Russian artillery, forcing Russian forces to withdraw some assets farther from the frontline. This intensified fighting raised market optimism about a potential Russian capture, pushing prices to a peak of 90%.
Russian forces intensify attacks near Lyman but Ukrainian counterattacks persist
December 31 rises to 87%1%
On March 11-12, Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding villages, but Ukrainian forces counterattacked, maintaining control. This sustained fighting kept market confidence high that Russia might capture the station, though no definitive control was established.
Ukraine’s allies agree on multilayered security guarantees in Paris
June 30 plunges to 39%28%
The announcement of a major security‑guarantee package for Ukraine signaled stronger Western support, lowering expectations that Russia could capture Lyman and pulling the June 30 price down from 67% to 39% over the following weeks.
Russian attacks near Lyman fail to change control of terrain
December 31 rises to 87%1%
Despite Russian attacks near Lyman and infiltration missions, ISW assessed that these did not result in changes to control of terrain or the forward edge of the battle area, tempering market optimism.
Russian forces attack near Lyman but fail to advance, Ukrainian counterattacks reported
On March 11-12, Russian forces launched attacks near Lyman and surrounding villages but did not capture the town or railroad station. Ukrainian forces counterattacked, maintaining control and damaging Russian equipment, which kept market confidence in a Russian capture from rising.
Russian forces continue attacks near Lyman with no Ukrainian advance
On March 11-12, Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding settlements but did not advance, while Ukrainian counterattacks were reported. Despite no breakthrough, the ongoing pressure and Russian operational focus sustained market optimism for a Russian capture by year-end.
Russian forces conduct mechanized assaults near Lyman but make no confirmed advances
December 31 rises to 88%3%
Despite increased Russian assaults near Lyman, Ukrainian forces held positions, preventing Russian capture of the railroad station and causing market prices to stabilize at high but uncertain levels.
Russian forces continue attacks near Lyman amid Ukrainian counterattacks
Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding areas while Ukrainian forces counterattacked nearby. The persistent Russian offensive activity sustained market confidence in a likely Russian capture of the Lyman railroad station by year-end.
Russian forces prepare for spring offensive with troop redeployments near Lyman
December 31 rises to 88%2%
By early March, Russian military command was transferring forces to the Lyman direction as part of preparations for the spring campaign. Reports indicated intensified Russian assaults and mechanized operations near Lyman, despite Ukrainian counterattacks and degraded Russian situational awareness due to Starlink outages. This buildup raised market confidence in a potential Russian capture of Lyman, with prices around 87-88%.
ISW highlights Ukrainian advances and disruption of Russian offensive plans
June 30 plunges to 54%18%
ISW reported that Ukrainian forces liberated over 400 square kilometers in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, disrupting Russia's anticipated spring-summer 2026 offensive toward Pokrovsk and Lyman. This demonstrated Ukrainian operational momentum, lowering the market's probability of Russian capture by June 30.
Russian military transfers forces to Lyman direction for spring campaign
A Ukrainian regiment commander reported Russian forces moving troops to the Lyman area as part of a pre-spring offensive campaign, signaling an imminent Russian push toward Lyman and the Donetsk Oblast border. This raised expectations of a Russian offensive in Lyman, supporting a higher market probability for capture by December 31.
Heavy combat engagements reported near Lyman with Russian forces attempting advances
December 31 drops to 78%9%
Russian forces conducted numerous attacks and airstrikes near Lyman, but Ukrainian forces repelled attempts to improve Russian positions. The intense fighting maintained market uncertainty, with prices stabilizing after initial gains.
Ukraine’s Zelenskyy pursues arms deals amid intensified Russian strikes
December 31 drops to 79%9%
President Zelenskyy sought more arms and air defense systems from allies as Russia increased drone and missile strikes, including near Lyman. Ukrainian counterattacks and improved defense capabilities tempered Russian advances, causing some market price volatility.
ISW reports Russian infiltration missions near Lyman without territorial gains
December 31 rises to 87%2%
ISW assessed that Russian forces conducted infiltration missions near Lyman but did not change control of terrain, tempering market enthusiasm and stabilizing prices around 87%.
Russian forces maintain pressure near Lyman with attacks and drone operations
ISW reported continued Russian attacks near Lyman and use of drone operators in the Lyman direction, alongside Ukrainian counterattacks. This sustained offensive activity suggested Russian commitment to capturing Lyman, supporting market confidence in eventual capture.
Russian forces maintain offensive operations near Lyman with mechanized assaults
On March 7 and 8, Russian forces continued attacks near Lyman and nearby settlements, including mechanized assaults by the 40th Naval Infantry Brigade. These operations demonstrated ongoing Russian attempts to gain ground in the Lyman area, sustaining market optimism about Russian capture of the railroad station.
Russian infiltration missions near Lyman met with Ukrainian strikes
Russian forces conducted infiltration missions near Lyman but were struck by Ukrainian forces, limiting territorial gains and causing market price to plateau.
Russian forces conduct infiltration missions near Lyman without significant territorial gains
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions near Lyman after Russian infiltration missions that did not change control of terrain, tempering market optimism about Russian capture of Lyman.
ISW notes Russian infiltration near Lyman with flag‑raising in Svyatohirsk
December 31 rises to 87%2%
On March 6 ISW reported further Russian infiltration attempts near Lyman, including a flag‑raising in central Svyatohirsk, but noted no change in control. The continued fighting kept the market near the high‑confidence “Yes” level, reinforcing traders’ belief that Russian forces were close to, but not yet controlling, the station.
Russian forces launch multiple attacks near Lyman but make no confirmed advances
December 31 rises to 88%2%
Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding areas but failed to make confirmed territorial gains. Ukrainian forces repelled assaults, maintaining control and causing market confidence to stabilize at a high level but without further increase.
Russia Claims Seizure of Yarova Near Lyman Amid Continued Ground Assaults
December 31 dips to 87%1%
The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed the capture of Yarova, northwest of Lyman, while milbloggers reported advances in western Lyman, signaling a tightening of the pocket around the city.
Ukrainian forces repel Russian armored column in Lyman sector
On March 5, Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian armored column in the Lyman sector, forcing a Russian convoy to retreat. Despite this setback for Russia, the market price remained high, reflecting overall confidence in eventual Russian capture.
Ukrainian forces repel Russian attack involving over twenty vehicles near Lyman
December 31 drops to 80%7%
Ukrainian 66th Mechanized Brigade and allied units successfully repelled a significant Russian assault near Lyman, disrupting Russian plans and causing a decline in market confidence for a near-term Russian capture of Lyman.
Russian forces intensify attacks around Lyman but face Ukrainian counterattacks
December 31 rises to 88%1%
On March 4-5, Russian forces attacked multiple positions near Lyman, including Yarova and Fedorivka Druha, but Ukrainian forces counterattacked in southern Lyman and Drobysheve. This indicated ongoing contested control and prevented a clear Russian capture, influencing market prices.
Russian forces conduct attacks around Lyman amid Ukrainian counterattacks
December 31 rises to 87%1%
Russian forces attacked multiple locations near Lyman while Ukrainian forces counterattacked, resulting in a stalemate with no decisive Russian control over Lyman, sustaining market uncertainty.
Russian forces claim advances near Lyman and surrounding villages
On March 5, Russian Ministry of Defense and milbloggers claimed advances near Lyman, including the seizure of Yarova and progress in western Lyman. These claims, though unconfirmed, contributed to sustained market confidence in Russian capture prospects.
Russian MoD claims capture of Yarova near Lyman
December 31 rises to 81%3%
On March 5 the Russian MoD claimed seizure of Yarova, a settlement north‑west of Lyman. Although not corroborated by ISW, the announcement briefly lifted market optimism, contributing to a small rise in the “December 31” price from 78 % to 81 % in late March.
Ukrainian forces destroy Russian armored column in Lyman sector
December 31 rises to 88%2%
On March 5, Ukrainian forces struck and forced a Russian convoy to retreat in the Lyman sector, demonstrating effective defense against Russian mechanized assaults. This showed Ukrainian resilience and slowed Russian advances, tempering market optimism slightly.
Russian Ministry of Defense claimed seizure of Yarova near Lyman
On March 5, the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed Russian forces seized Yarova northwest of Lyman, with milbloggers also claiming advances in western Lyman and nearby areas. These claims raised market expectations for Russian progress toward Lyman's capture, though they remained unconfirmed by independent sources.
Russian attacks repelled in Lyman sector with significant losses
December 31 rises to 88%3%
Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian attack involving over twenty enemy vehicles in the Lyman direction, destroying equipment and forcing Russian troops to retreat, demonstrating strong Ukrainian defense and limiting Russian advances.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims seizure of Yarova near Lyman
December 31 dips to 87%1%
On March 5, the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that Russian forces seized Yarova, northwest of Lyman, credited to the 1st Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment. However, these claims were unconfirmed and Ukrainian forces reportedly counterattacked in the area, indicating contested control and no decisive capture of Lyman railroad station.
Ukrainian counter‑attacks stall Russian advance near Lyman
December 31 drops to 79%8%
Reports of successful Ukrainian counter‑attacks in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia limited Russian manpower, causing a modest pull‑back in market confidence and a dip from 87% to 79% for the December‑31 outcome.
Russian forces conduct multiple attacks near Lyman and Pokrovsk
December 31 rises to 88%1%
On March 3-4, Russian forces launched attacks near Lyman and surrounding areas, including northwest and northeast of Lyman, indicating continued offensive pressure. This sustained activity supported the market's elevated probability of Russian capture by December 31.
Russian forces conduct multiple assaults near Lyman but make no significant advances
December 31 rises to 87%1%
On March 3-4, Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding villages in a multi-pronged offensive but did not achieve territorial gains. This sustained pressure maintained market confidence in eventual Russian capture, keeping prices high around 86-88%.
Russian forces attack near Lyman but make no advances
December 31 rises to 88%1%
Russian forces launched attacks near Lyman and surrounding areas on March 3 and 4 but did not advance, indicating ongoing fighting without territorial gains. This maintained uncertainty about Russian control of the Lyman railroad station, keeping market confidence high but slightly cautious.
Russian forces launch multiple attacks near Lyman but fail to advance
December 31 dips to 86%1%
On March 3-4, Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding areas but did not make territorial gains, as Ukrainian forces repelled assaults and struck Russian air defense assets. This lack of Russian progress likely contributed to a slight decrease in market confidence for Russian capture of Lyman by year-end.
Russia readies new offensives as Iran war pressures Ukraine
December 31 rises to 87%1%
With U.S.-brokered peace talks on hold due to the Middle East conflict, Russian President Putin is expected to expand military gains, increasing market concern about Russian offensive operations.
Russian forces continue offensive near Lyman but make no advances
December 31 rises to 88%1%
On March 4, ISW reported Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding areas but did not advance. Ukrainian forces struck Russian air defense and logistics, indicating ongoing fierce fighting and stalemate conditions, which maintained market optimism for eventual Russian capture.
Russian forces continue attacks near Lyman without advancing
On March 3 and 4, Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding areas but did not make territorial gains, indicating ongoing fighting but no capture of the railroad station. This maintained market uncertainty about Russian control.
Russian forces intensify attacks near Lyman but make no advances
December 31 rises to 87%1%
Russian forces attacked multiple locations near Lyman but did not advance, as reported by ISW. This indicated continued fighting but no territorial gains, sustaining uncertainty about Russian capture prospects and stabilizing market prices.
Ukraine launches counterattacks in Dnipropetrovsk region
Ukraine launched counterattacks in the Dnipropetrovsk region, forcing Russia to 'choose between defending against the Ukrainian counterattacks and allocating manpower and materiel for offensive operations elsewhere,' potentially spoiling Russian offensive plans.
Fighting continues near Lyman with Russian forces attacking multiple nearby settlements
On March 3 and 4, Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding settlements including Novoselivka, Stavky, Drobysheve, and Zarichne. Ukrainian reports indicated Russian forces using small infantry groups and accumulating manpower for assaults, but no confirmed full capture of Lyman railroad station was reported.
Russia launches missile and drone attacks into Ukraine; drone wreckage hits railway station
Russia launched two missiles and 60 drones into Ukraine overnight into Tuesday morning. One missile and 8 drones impacted across five locations. Drone wreckage fell on a railway station in the Krasnodar region, according to the Krasnodar region's operational headquarters.
Russian forces attack near Lyman but Ukrainian forces maintain control of key settlements
December 31 rises to 87%1%
Russian forces attacked near Lyman and nearby settlements on March 2-3, but Ukrainian forces controlled key locations such as Fedorivka Druha and Riznykivka, showing contested but not decisive Russian control. This maintained market optimism for Russian capture but reflected ongoing stalemate.
Russian forces maintain positions near Lyman amid ongoing counterattacks
Russian forces reportedly hold positions in most of Novoselivka northwest of Lyman but do not fully control it due to frequent Ukrainian counterattacks. Despite contested control, Russian advances near Lyman sustained market optimism at 87%.
Russian forces advance near Donetsk Oblast villages including near Lyman
December 31 rises to 87%2%
Russian invasion forces advanced near villages in Donetsk Oblast close to Lyman, as reported by DeepStateMap on March 3. This supported continued market optimism for Russian capture of Lyman by December 31.
Russian military steps up artillery barrage and drone strikes in eastern Ukraine
Russian forces intensified bombardment and drone attacks in eastern regions, including near Lyman, as part of preparation for potential ground offensives. This military escalation raised concerns about Russian territorial gains.
Ukraine launches counterattacks in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions
December 31 drops to 79%8%
Ukraine intensified counteroffensives in key regions to disrupt Russian advances, forcing Russia to allocate resources defensively. This development reduced market confidence in Russia's ability to capture Lyman by year-end.
Russian forces continue attacks near Lyman without territorial gains
December 31 rises to 86%3%
On March 3-4, Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding areas but did not advance or capture the town or railroad station, maintaining Ukrainian control and market uncertainty.
U.S.-brokered peace talks resume in Abu Dhabi amid Lyman fighting
June 30 drops to 65%6%
The restart of U.S.-brokered negotiations introduced uncertainty about Russian gains, causing a modest pullback in the June 30 price from 71% to 65% as traders weighed diplomatic prospects against battlefield momentum.
Russian forces advance near villages in Donetsk Oblast including near Lyman
On March 3, DeepState reported Russian advances near villages in Donetsk Oblast, including areas close to Lyman, indicating continued Russian offensive pressure. This supported market confidence in eventual capture by year-end.
Russia claims territorial gains in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia
June 30 rises to 69%4%
Russian military leadership reported taking control of additional settlements, increasing pressure on Ukrainian defensive lines and boosting market expectations for a Russian capture of Lyman.
Russian Defense Minister outlines plans for further advances in Donetsk
June 30 jumps to 76%8%
Defense Minister Belousov's explicit declaration of plans for a quick push into Ukrainian-controlled parts of Donetsk reinforced expectations of a Russian breakthrough.
ISW reports Russian attacks near Lyman with no confirmed control change
On March 1 and 2, Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding villages, with geolocated footage showing Russian presence on the northern outskirts but no confirmed change in control of the railroad station. This maintained market confidence in eventual capture but no resolution yet.
ISW reports no change in control of Lyman despite Russian attacks
On March 2, ISW assessments and geolocated footage showed Russian forces attacking near Lyman and surrounding villages but not changing control of the town or railroad station. Ukrainian forces maintained control, and Russian infiltration missions did not alter the frontline, indicating no capture by Russia by the resolution date.
Ukrainian President warns of new Russian strikes targeting logistics including railways
December 31 rises to 87%2%
On March 2, President Zelensky warned that Russia would shift missile and drone strikes to Ukrainian logistics and water infrastructure, including railways, indicating ongoing Russian efforts to disrupt Ukrainian supply lines near Lyman. This reinforced market expectations of Russian operational focus in the area.
Geolocated footage shows Russian presence near Lyman but no confirmed capture of railroad station
On March 1 and 2, geolocated footage confirmed Russian forces operating on the northern outskirts of Lyman and nearby villages, but ISW assessed no change in control of the Lyman railroad station. This indicated ongoing fighting without decisive Russian capture, maintaining market confidence in a likely eventual capture by year-end.
Russian forces advance near Lyman but fail to capture key positions
December 31 rises to 86%3%
Geolocated footage showed Russian advances in central Drobysheve northwest of Lyman on March 2, but Russian forces did not fully control the area, and Ukrainian forces maintained contested control near Lyman railroad station.
Russian forces advance in central Drobysheve northwest of Lyman
December 31 rises to 88%1%
Geolocated footage showed Russian forces advancing in central Drobysheve, northwest of Lyman, on March 2, indicating continued pressure in the Lyman direction but no confirmed capture of the railroad station. Market prices remained stable at high levels.
ISW reports no Russian control of Lyman railroad station despite ongoing attacks
By March 2, ISW assessments and geolocated footage showed Russian forces operating near Lyman but not controlling the railroad station. This maintained market uncertainty, with prices steady at 86%, as no confirmed capture was reported within the analysis window.
No confirmed Russian capture of Lyman railroad station by early March
December 31 rises to 87%1%
By March 2, geolocated footage and ISW assessments showed Russian forces striking near Lyman but no confirmed control of the town or railroad station. Ukrainian counterattacks and ongoing fighting maintained the contested status, leaving market resolution uncertain.
Russian forces conduct infiltration missions near Lyman but no confirmed capture
On March 1 and 2, Russian forces attacked near Lyman and conducted infiltration missions on its northern outskirts without changing control of terrain. This maintained market confidence at 87%, reflecting ongoing conflict but no confirmed Russian control of the Lyman railroad station.
ISW map shows no Russian control in Lyman town area
December 31 rises to 86%3%
ISW's assessed control of terrain map on March 2, 2026, indicated that Russian forces had not captured Lyman town or its railroad station, with Ukrainian forces maintaining control despite ongoing Russian attacks in the vicinity.
Geolocated footage shows Russian advances near Lyman but no full capture
December 31 rises to 87%1%
Geolocated footage published on March 2 showed Russian soldiers operating on the northern outskirts of Lyman and advances southeast of Stavky, but ISW assessed these as infiltration missions that did not change control of terrain. Ukrainian forces continued to contest the area, indicating no full Russian capture yet.
ISW reports Russian infiltration near Lyman but no confirmed capture of the town
Geolocated footage on March 1 showed Russian soldiers operating on the northern outskirts of Lyman, indicating infiltration missions without changing control of the town or railroad station. This maintained market expectations but no confirmed capture was reported.
Russian forces claim advances near Lyman and surrounding villages
December 31 rises to 87%1%
On March 2, Russian forces claimed seizure of nearby villages Drobysheve and Riznykivka and continued attacks near Lyman, indicating ongoing offensive efforts. This maintained market price near 87% Yes for capture by December 31.
Russian forces continue attacks near Lyman but no change in control
On March 1 and 2, Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding villages, with geolocated footage showing infiltration but no change in control of the railroad station, sustaining market uncertainty.
ISW reports Russian presence near Lyman but no control of railroad station
By March 2, geolocated footage showed Russian forces operating near Lyman's outskirts but ISW assessed no change in control of the forward edge of battle area or capture of the railroad station, leaving market expectations high but unresolved.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims seizure of Drobysheve near Lyman
December 31 rises to 87%1%
The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that Russian forces seized Drobysheve, a settlement northwest of Lyman, indicating territorial gains close to Lyman and bolstering expectations of eventual capture of the Lyman railroad station.
Ukrainian Commander reports more territory captured than lost in February
On March 2, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi stated Ukrainian forces captured more territory than Russia in February, indicating strong Ukrainian resistance near Lyman, which tempered market enthusiasm but did not reverse the overall trend.
ISW map shows contested control in Lyman tactical area
December 31 rises to 88%1%
On March 2, ISW published an assessed control of terrain map for the Lyman tactical area, showing ongoing contestation but no confirmed Russian control of the Lyman railroad station. This maintained market uncertainty but supported the high probability for December 31 capture.
Russian Soldier Spotted on Northern Outskirts of Lyman During Infiltration Mission
December 31 dips to 87%1%
Geolocated footage confirmed a Russian soldier operating on the northern outskirts of Lyman, indicating active infiltration, while Russian forces also advanced southeast of Stavky, just north of Lyman.
Russian forces maintain presence and conduct attacks near Lyman in early March
December 31 rises to 87%2%
Geolocated footage and reports from March 1-2 show Russian forces operating on the northern outskirts of Lyman and attacking nearby villages, indicating continued Russian pressure and partial control in the area. This sustained activity supported the market's high confidence in Russian capture of the Lyman railroad station by the end of 2025.
ISW map shows Ukrainian control of Lyman and surrounding areas
December 31 rises to 86%3%
ISW's assessed control of terrain map on March 2 confirmed Ukrainian control of Lyman and its railroad station, with Russian forces attacking nearby but not capturing the town. This reinforced market confidence that Russia had not captured the station by this date.
Russian forces conduct attacks near Lyman with limited territorial changes
December 31 rises to 87%2%
By March 2, Russian forces continued attacks near Lyman and its outskirts, including infiltration missions, but no confirmed capture of the railroad station was reported. Market prices remained high, reflecting belief in eventual capture.
ISW map confirms ongoing fighting near Lyman with Russian advances
December 31 rises to 88%1%
ISW assessments and maps as of early March 2026 show continued Russian attacks and infiltration near Lyman and surrounding villages, supporting the market's high probability of Russia capturing the Lyman railroad station by the end of 2025.
Geolocated footage shows Russian infiltration near Lyman but no control established
December 31 rises to 87%1%
On March 1-2, ISW published geolocated footage showing Russian soldiers operating on the northern outskirts of Lyman after infiltration missions that did not change control of terrain. This confirmed ongoing fighting but no capture of the railroad station, maintaining market prices near 87% Yes.
Geolocated footage shows Russian soldier near Lyman but no control change
On March 1 and 2, geolocated footage showed Russian soldiers operating on the northern outskirts of Lyman, but ISW assessed this as infiltration without change in control, confirming Russia had not captured the Lyman railroad station.
Russian MoD claims seizure of Drobysheve and Riznykivka near Lyman
December 31 dips to 85%1%
ISW’s March 2 assessment quoted Russian MoD claims that Russian forces had seized the nearby settlement of Drobysheve and the east‑Slovyansk village of Riznykivka. Although the claims were unverified, the mention of a capture close to the Lyman rail hub caused a modest rise in the “December 31” probability as traders interpreted it as a possible stepping‑stone toward the station.
ISW reports intensified Russian artillery strikes near Lyman
December 31 surges to 86%59%
The Institute for the Study of War noted a surge in artillery and drone attacks around Lyman, suggesting a preparation for a ground offensive. Traders saw this as increasing the likelihood of Russia capturing the station, pushing the December 31 price up.
Russian forces maintain pressure near Lyman with infiltration missions
December 31 rises to 86%1%
By March 2, Russian forces continued attacks and infiltration missions near Lyman, including geolocated footage of Russian soldiers on the northern outskirts. This sustained military pressure supported ongoing market confidence in eventual capture.
Russian forces claim seizure of Drobysheve near Lyman
December 31 rises to 88%2%
On March 2, the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed Russian forces seized Drobysheve, northwest of Lyman, and other nearby settlements, suggesting progress in the Lyman area. This claim supported the market's confidence, pushing the price to 87-88%.
Russian forces continue attacks near Lyman but no confirmed capture
December 31 rises to 87%1%
On March 1 and 2, Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding areas but ISW assessments indicated no confirmed control of Lyman or its railroad station by Russian forces.
Ukraine launches counterattacks in Dnipropetrovsk region
December 31 rises to 87%1%
Ukraine launched counterattacks in the Dnipropetrovsk region, forcing Russia to choose between defending against Ukrainian counterattacks and allocating resources for offensive operations elsewhere, potentially spoiling anticipated Russian offensives.
Russian forces claim advances in western Lyman and nearby settlements
December 31 rises to 88%1%
By March 1-2, Russian forces reportedly advanced in western Lyman and nearby areas such as Drobysheve and Novoselivka, with some claims of control though contested by Ukrainian counterattacks. This contributed to the market price reaching 88%.
Russian troops launch strikes on railway infrastructure near Lyman
Between February 28 and March 1, Russian forces conducted strikes on railway infrastructure in the Dnipropetrovsk region and attacked near Lyman, indicating continued efforts to control key transport nodes. This sustained pressure supported the market's high confidence in a Russian capture of Lyman by the end of 2025.
Ukrainian mil‑bloggers report Russian offensive stalling near Lyman
December 31 drops to 79%9%
A cluster of Ukrainian mil‑blog posts suggested Russian attacks had stalled near Lyman, which helped reverse the early‑March rally (price fell from 88 % to 79 %).
Russian troops launch attacks on railway infrastructure near Lyman
December 31 rises to 87%2%
Between February 28 and March 1, Russian forces targeted railway infrastructure in the Dnipropetrovsk region and conducted attacks near Lyman, indicating continued efforts to control transport routes. Despite these attacks, no confirmed capture of the Lyman railroad station was reported, keeping market prices stable around 87%.
Russian forces advance near Lyman outskirts and claim territorial gains
December 31 rises to 87%1%
Geolocated footage showed Russian soldiers operating on the northern outskirts of Lyman after infiltration missions. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed seizure of nearby villages, indicating incremental territorial gains and increased control in the Lyman tactical area.
Russian drone attack claimed on Putin’s residence escalates tensions
December 31 rises to 88%2%
Russia claimed Ukraine launched a drone attack on Putin’s residence, leading to hawkish threats from Russian officials and hardening of Russia’s negotiating stance. This increased perceived risk of intensified conflict, supporting higher market prices for Russian capture by year-end.
Russian official threatens Zelenskyy after alleged Ukrainian drone attack on Putin residence
Following claims of a Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian presidential residence, Russian officials issued threats against Ukraine's leadership, signaling potential escalation. This heightened tensions and influenced market perceptions of conflict intensity near contested areas like Lyman.
Situation stable around Lyman; no momentum for Russian forces
December 31 rises to 87%1%
By March 1, reports indicated a stable situation around Lyman with Ukrainian units preventing Russian forces from gaining momentum or control, confirming no capture of the railroad station by Russia.
Geolocated footage shows Russian soldier on northern outskirts of Lyman, no change in control
December 31 rises to 87%1%
On March 1 and 2, footage showed Russian forces operating near Lyman's northern outskirts, indicating infiltration but no confirmed change in control of the Lyman railroad station. This suggested ongoing contested status, keeping market prices high but uncertain.
Russian drone strike kills civilians in Dnipro amid peace talks
December 31 dips to 87%1%
A Russian drone strike killed at least 12 mineworkers in Dnipro, Ukraine, hours after Zelenskyy announced upcoming peace talks. The attack underscored ongoing hostilities despite diplomatic efforts, affecting market sentiment on Russian advances.
Russia uses nuclear-capable missile in 'massive strike' on Ukraine
Russia launched a massive missile and drone attack on Ukraine, including the use of a nuclear-capable missile system, demonstrating military strength and escalating the conflict, which influenced market perceptions of Russia's offensive capabilities near Lyman.
Russian forces maintain attacks near Lyman amid ongoing fighting
December 31 rises to 87%2%
On March 1 and 2, Russian forces continued attacks near Lyman and nearby villages, with geolocated footage showing Russian soldiers operating on the northern outskirts. Despite these efforts, control of the Lyman railroad station remained contested, keeping market prices near 87%.
Russian forces conduct attacks and infiltrations near Lyman, advancing positions
December 31 rises to 87%1%
ISW reported Russian attacks near Lyman and geolocated footage showed Russian soldiers operating on the northern outskirts of Lyman, indicating recent advances. These developments reinforced market confidence in a Russian capture by the end of 2025.
Zelenskyy says trilateral talks ended constructively and more are possible next week
December 31 drops to 81%5%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy described recent peace talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US as constructive, raising hopes for a diplomatic resolution but with unresolved territorial issues, impacting market optimism about Russian territorial gains including Lyman.
U.S.-brokered peace talks in Abu Dhabi show progress but territorial disputes remain
December 31 drops to 79%8%
U.S.-brokered talks involving Russia and Ukraine made progress on security guarantees but failed to resolve key territorial issues, maintaining uncertainty about the conflict's outcome and impacting market prices downward.
Russian forces conduct multiple attacks near Lyman and surrounding settlements
December 31 rises to 87%2%
Russian forces launched attacks near Lyman itself and nearby settlements such as Yarova, Sosnove, Drobysheve, and Stavky on February 28 and March 1. These offensives demonstrated sustained Russian pressure in the Lyman area, supporting market expectations of Russian capture of the railroad station.
Russian forces claim capture of Myrnohrad and advance toward Lyman
Kremlin video claimed control of nearby settlements, reinforcing expectations of a push toward Lyman and sustaining high prices for the December‑31 outcome.
U.S.-brokered peace talks stall amid conflicting territorial demands
June 30 plunges to 55%15%
Peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine showed no breakthrough, with Russia demanding recognition of seized territories and Ukraine rejecting withdrawals. The stalemate contributed to uncertainty about the timing of Russian territorial gains, tempering market optimism for earlier capture dates.
Russian forces attack near Lyman and claim advances in nearby settlements
December 31 rises to 87%1%
Between February 28 and March 1, Russian forces attacked near Lyman and claimed advances in nearby settlements such as Yarova and Sosnove. Ukrainian counterattacks were reported but Russian pressure remained high, supporting the market's elevated probability.
Russian forces continue offensive near Lyman but do not capture the town
On March 1, Russian forces launched attacks near Lyman and adjacent villages but ISW assessments indicated no advances into Lyman or control of the railroad station, maintaining the status quo and market confidence in a 'Yes' outcome based on ongoing conflict.
Geolocated footage shows Russian presence near northern outskirts of Lyman
On March 1-2, footage showed Russian soldiers operating on the northern outskirts of Lyman after infiltration missions, but no confirmed control of the railroad station or town was established.
ISW reports ongoing fierce fighting near Lyman with Russian priority on offensive
December 31 rises to 88%2%
Institute for the Study of War highlighted intense combat near Lyman with Russian forces prioritizing the city for future offensives, sustaining market confidence in Russian capture prospects.
Russian Soldier Spotted on Northern Outskirts of Lyman Amid Tactical Advances Near Stavky
December 31 rises to 87%1%
Geolocated footage showed a Russian soldier operating on the northern outskirts of Lyman, and analysts confirmed that Russian forces recently advanced southeast of Stavky, pushing the frontline closer to Lyman.
Russian forces launch offensive operations near Lyman but fail to advance
Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding areas but did not make significant advances, indicating early 2026 efforts to capture the city and its railroad station were unsuccessful, keeping the market probability low.
Russian forces maintain offensive pressure near Lyman without major advances
On February 28, ISW reported that Russian forces continued offensive operations near Lyman and surrounding settlements but did not advance significantly. The continued pressure and deployment of reinforcements indicated Russia's prioritization of the Lyman area, sustaining market confidence in eventual capture.
Russian forces attack near Lyman but fail to advance or capture the town
December 31 rises to 86%1%
ISW reported on February 28 that Russian forces continued offensive operations near Lyman but did not advance or capture the town or its railroad station, indicating no change in control status.
Russian forces continue offensive operations near Lyman without territorial gains
December 31 rises to 86%1%
By February 28, Russian forces maintained attacks near Lyman and adjacent settlements but failed to advance or capture the railroad station. Reinforcements were deployed, indicating intent to prioritize the area in future offensives, sustaining market price levels.
Russian forces maintain offensive operations around Lyman
December 31 rises to 87%2%
On February 27-28, Russian forces continued attacks near Lyman and adjacent villages, including attempts to expand penetration zones south of Lyman. Persistent offensive operations reinforced market expectations of Russian capture, keeping prices elevated around 85-87%.
Russian forces launch strikes on railway infrastructure near Lyman and continue offensive operations
December 31 rises to 87%1%
Between February 27 and 28, Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding villages, including strikes on railway infrastructure in the region. These sustained operations reinforced market expectations of Russian capture of the Lyman railroad station by year-end.
Russian forces continue offensive near Lyman but do not advance
By February 28, Russian forces were still attacking near Lyman and adjacent villages but did not make advances or capture the railroad station, as ISW assessments indicated no change in control.
Russian forces intensify attacks near Lyman and surrounding settlements
December 31 rises to 86%2%
On February 28 and March 1, Russian forces launched multiple attacks near Lyman itself and nearby settlements such as Yarova, Sosnove, Drobysheve, and Stavky, indicating increased military pressure. Despite these attacks, Ukrainian forces reportedly counterattacked in some areas, reflecting ongoing contested control around Lyman.
Russian military command deploys reinforcements to Slovyansk direction near Lyman
December 31 rises to 87%1%
The deployment of reinforcements indicated Russian prioritization of offensive operations near Lyman, boosting market confidence in a potential capture, with prices stabilizing around 86-87%.
Russian forces maintain attacks near Lyman amid preparations for spring offensive
December 31 rises to 86%1%
On February 27 and 28, Russian forces continued attacks near Lyman and adjacent areas, with ISW assessing that reinforcements indicate plans for a spring-summer offensive. Market prices remained high around 85-86%, reflecting sustained expectations of Russian advances.
Russian forces maintain pressure near Lyman with attacks on multiple fronts
December 31 rises to 86%1%
On February 27 and 28, Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding villages, continuing to press Ukrainian defenses. This sustained offensive contributed to maintaining high market confidence in a future Russian capture of the Lyman railroad station.
Russian forces maintain offensive near Lyman with reinforcements
December 31 rises to 87%2%
By February 28, Russian forces continued attacks near Lyman and deployed reinforcements in the Slovyansk direction, signaling preparations for intensified spring offensives. This bolstered market confidence in a Russian capture by December 31.
Russian forces continue assaults near Lyman but fail to secure key positions
Russian forces conducted attacks near Lyman and surrounding villages but did not establish control over Lyman itself. This continued failure to capture Lyman contributed to market uncertainty and price fluctuations.
Russian forces continue attacks near Lyman with no confirmed advances
December 31 rises to 88%3%
Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding areas on February 27-28 but did not make confirmed advances, reflecting ongoing fighting without capture of the railroad station.
Russian troops launch attacks on railway infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv regions near Lyman
December 31 rises to 86%1%
On February 28 to March 1, Russian forces attacked railway infrastructure in regions near Lyman, demonstrating continued operational focus on transport routes critical for control of Lyman and its railroad station.
Russian forces strike Ukrainian positions near Lyman and surrounding areas
Geolocated footage on February 28 showed Russian forces striking Ukrainian positions near Lyman and nearby villages, indicating ongoing pressure and attempts to consolidate control in the area, supporting market confidence in a Russian capture.
Russian forces intensify attacks near Lyman and surrounding areas
December 31 surges to 83%56%
On February 26-27, Russian forces launched multiple attacks near Lyman and adjacent settlements, signaling increased offensive operations in the region. This escalation likely contributed to the market's sharp rise in the probability of Russian capture of Lyman by December 31, 2025.
Russian forces maintain offensive pressure near Lyman without confirmed advances
ISW reported continued Russian attacks near Lyman and surrounding areas but noted no confirmed advances. The sustained pressure and deployment of reinforcements in the Slovyansk direction indicated Russia's intent to prioritize offensive operations, reinforcing market expectations of eventual capture.
Russian forces continue offensive near Lyman without confirmed advances
ISW reported Russian attacks near Lyman and surrounding areas but no confirmed territorial gains, maintaining uncertainty about control of the Lyman railroad station. Market prices remained high but showed some volatility.
Russian forces launch multiple attacks near Lyman and surrounding areas
December 31 surges to 85%58%
On February 26-27, Russian forces attacked near Lyman and nearby settlements, signaling increased offensive operations in the area. These attacks raised market expectations for Russian advances toward capturing Lyman railroad station.
Russian forces continue attacks around Lyman and nearby villages
December 31 rises to 88%3%
On February 26-27, Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding villages, including Novoselivka, Svyatohirsk, Yarova, and others, indicating ongoing offensive operations. This persistent activity supported the market's high probability of Russian capture by year-end.
Russian forces continue attacks near Lyman but no confirmed capture
December 31 rises to 86%1%
On February 27, Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding villages, with claims of advances near Lyman and nearby settlements, but ISW assessments indicated no confirmed capture of Lyman or its railroad station.
Russian forces expand penetration zones south of Lyman amid heavy fighting
December 31 rises to 86%1%
By February 27, Russian forces were expanding penetration zones in forests south of Lyman, operating in small groups and consolidating positions near Brusivka and Staryi Karavan, with heavy engagements ongoing in nearby Drobysheve. Despite this, no confirmed control of Lyman or its railroad station was reported.
Russian forces continue multi-directional attacks near Lyman amid reports of counterattacks
December 31 rises to 88%3%
On February 27, Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding villages from multiple directions, while Ukrainian counterattacks were reported. Despite contested fighting, the sustained Russian pressure supported market confidence in eventual capture, with prices peaking at 93%.
Russian forces attack near Lyman but do not capture the town
Russian forces launched attacks near Lyman and surrounding settlements on February 26 and 27, but there was no confirmed capture of Lyman or its railroad station. Russian milbloggers claimed advances, but these were unconfirmed and Ukrainian forces maintained control.
Russian forces prepare for spring-summer offensive near Lyman
December 31 rises to 88%2%
Reports indicated Russian artillery and drone preparations near Lyman as part of a planned larger offensive in Donetsk Oblast. This strategic buildup increased market expectations for Russian capture by year-end, pushing prices to near 88%.
Heavy fighting continues near Lyman with Russian forces attacking multiple surrounding villages
December 31 rises to 86%1%
On February 27, Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding villages including Novoselivka, Svyatohirsk, Yarova, Sosnove, Drobysheve, and Stavky, with ongoing heavy engagements but no confirmed capture of the Lyman railroad station. Market prices remained high reflecting continued expectations of eventual capture.
ISW reports Russian forces attacked northeast of Kharkiv near Lyman; no confirmed advances
Russian forces attacked northeast of Kharkiv near Lyman, Staryi Karavan, Rai-Oleksandrivka, Kryva Luka, and Fedorivka Druha, but ISW found no confirmed advances. This continued to cast doubt on Russian claims of Lyman capture.
Russian forces advance near Lyman amid ongoing fighting
December 31 rises to 88%3%
Between February 26 and 27, Russian forces attacked near Lyman and its surroundings, with reports of advances and continued fighting. This reinforced market expectations of a likely Russian capture of the Lyman railroad station by the end of 2025.
Russian forces launch attacks near Lyman and surrounding areas
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian forces conducted multiple attacks near Lyman and adjacent settlements on February 26 and 27, signaling intensified efforts to advance in the Lyman direction. This increased military activity contributed to a sharp rise in market confidence regarding Russia's potential capture of Lyman.
Russian milbloggers claim advances near Lyman and surrounding areas
December 31 rises to 88%2%
On February 27, Russian milbloggers claimed advances near Lyman, Staryi Karavan, and other nearby settlements, indicating ongoing Russian pressure and territorial gains. These claims reinforced market optimism about Russian control of the Lyman railroad station by the end of 2025.
Russian forces continue offensive operations near Lyman without advances
December 31 rises to 87%2%
Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding settlements on February 27 and 28 but did not make confirmed advances into the town or capture the railroad station. This maintained market confidence in a possible capture but no resolution yet.
ISW: Russian attacks near Lyman without gain
Early in the window, ISW reported Russian attacks near Lyman but no territorial change, setting a baseline “yes” probability of roughly 27 % on Feb 19.
U.S.-led peace talks show progress but remain fragile amid Russian military pressure
December 31 rises to 88%2%
Peace negotiations hosted by U.S. President Trump brought Russia and Ukraine closer to a deal, boosting market confidence in a potential Russian capture of Lyman by year-end, though divisions remained on key issues.
Russian forces conduct assaults near Lyman amid ongoing fighting
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding areas, with unconfirmed claims of advances. However, ISW and geolocated footage indicated Ukrainian control of key positions, suggesting no confirmed Russian capture of Lyman or its railroad station at this time. This contributed to initial market uncertainty and a rise in price reflecting increased conflict intensity.
Confirmation of Russian control over parts of Lyman railroad station area
December 31 dips to 85%1%
Further reports confirmed that Russian forces had taken control of parts of the Lyman railroad station area, sustaining high market confidence with prices around 85-88%.
Ukrainian 3rd Army Corps reports Russian communication issues and Ukrainian territorial gains near Lyman
Ukrainian commander Andriy Biletsky stated that Starlink outages reduced Russian drone effectiveness by 20-40%, enabling Ukrainian forces to retake territory near Pokrovsk and north of Lyman, impacting Russian operational capabilities and market confidence in Russian capture of Lyman by year-end.
Russian forces maintain pressure near Lyman with multi-directional attacks
December 31 rises to 86%1%
Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding villages from multiple directions, including northwest, north, east, and south, indicating sustained offensive operations. This persistent pressure reinforced market expectations of eventual capture by year-end.
Russian troops advance on Sloviansk axis near Lyman, seizing positions north of Zakitne
On February 26, OSINT analysts reported Russian advances north of the village of Zakitne, located southeast of Lyman, indicating incremental territorial gains in the region but no confirmed capture of the Lyman railroad station. This contributed to sustained market confidence in a 'Yes' outcome.
Russian forces intensify attacks around Lyman and reinforce Slovyansk direction
December 31 rises to 87%2%
By February 26, Russian forces continued attacks near Lyman and its surroundings, including attempts to expand control south toward Staryi Karavan. Reinforcements were deployed in the Slovyansk direction, signaling prioritization of offensive operations in the area, which supported market optimism about capturing Lyman.
Russian forces continue attacks near Lyman without advances
December 31 drops to 79%9%
Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding areas on February 25 and 26 but did not make confirmed advances. Ukrainian strikes on Russian rear areas also continued. This contributed to a slight market price decline from 88% to 79%.
Russian forces attack near Lyman and surrounding areas
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian forces launched attacks near Lyman and adjacent locations, indicating active efforts to advance in the Lyman sector. This increased military activity raised market confidence in a possible Russian capture of Lyman by December 31, 2025.
Russian forces attack railway infrastructure and frontline areas near Lyman
December 31 rises to 87%2%
Russian troops launched attacks on railway infrastructure in the Dnipropetrovsk region and conducted assaults near Lyman, indicating operational focus on disrupting Ukrainian logistics and preparing for further advances. This sustained market optimism around the December 31 outcome.
Starlink Outages Cut Effectiveness of Russian Drone Campaign Near Lyman
December 31 dips to 81%4%
A Ukrainian commander reported that Starlink blocks significantly degraded Russian drone operations and situational awareness, allowing Ukrainian forces to retake territory north of Lyman.
Russian reinforcements deployed in Slovyansk direction, attacks near Lyman continue
On February 26, ISW reported Russian reinforcements arriving near Slovyansk and ongoing attacks near Lyman and surrounding areas, signaling preparations for a spring offensive and sustained pressure on Ukrainian defenses, supporting higher market odds for Russian capture.
Constructive trilateral peace talks held in Abu Dhabi involving US, Russia, Ukraine
December 31 rises to 87%1%
Two days of talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US ended with constructive discussions on ending the war, raising hopes for a ceasefire and peace deal, which tempered market expectations for Russian territorial gains including Lyman.
Russian forces launch offensive operations near Lyman but make no confirmed advances
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Russian forces conducted attacks near and within Lyman and surrounding areas but failed to secure significant territorial gains, maintaining a contested frontline and limiting Russian control over key infrastructure like the railroad station.
Russian forces launch multiple attacks near Lyman and surrounding areas
December 31 surges to 85%58%
On February 26 and 27, Russian forces attacked near Lyman itself and surrounding villages, indicating intensified efforts to capture the city. Russian milbloggers claimed advances near Lyman, but Ukrainian forces maintained control. This escalation increased market confidence in a potential Russian capture by year-end.
Russian forces continue offensive operations near Lyman without significant advances
December 31 dips to 85%1%
On February 24 and 25, Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding villages but did not achieve notable territorial gains. The market price stabilized around 85%, reflecting ongoing fighting but no confirmed capture of the Lyman railroad station.
Russian forces intensify attacks near Lyman amid ongoing offensive operations
December 31 surges to 83%56%
Russian forces conducted multiple attacks near Lyman and surrounding settlements on February 24 and 25, signaling continued efforts to capture the area. These operations increased market confidence in a Russian capture by December 31, 2025, as they indicated persistent Russian pressure in the region.
Russian forces launch battalion-scale assault near Lyman
December 31 dips to 85%1%
Reports indicated a 500-strong Russian mechanized assault near Lyman, intercepted by Ukrainian forces using drones and remote mining. This reinforced market confidence in a potential Russian capture, maintaining high prices around 85-88%.
Russian Forces Advance Near Zakitne in Lyman District
December 31 rises to 86%1%
DeepState reported that Russian forces advanced near Zakitne, capturing 3.26 square kilometers of territory and tightening the southern flank of the Lyman sector.
Reports indicate Russian advances near Lyman railroad station
December 31 surges to 85%58%
News of Russian forces making progress towards the Lyman railroad station increased market confidence sharply, as reflected in the price jump from 27% to 85% for the December 31 outcome. This suggested a higher likelihood of Russia capturing the station by the end of 2025.
Russian forces continue attacks near Lyman and surrounding areas
December 31 dips to 85%1%
On February 24 and 25, Russian troops maintained pressure with attacks near Lyman and adjacent villages, including attempts to infiltrate and seize key positions. The market price remained steady around 85%, reflecting ongoing but inconclusive fighting.
Russian forces conduct attacks near Lyman but make no confirmed advances
December 31 surges to 83%56%
On February 24-25, Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding areas but did not advance, indicating ongoing conflict but no decisive control change. This contributed to initial market price increases reflecting active combat but uncertainty about capture.
Russian forces attack near Lyman but make no confirmed advances
December 31 surges to 83%56%
On February 24-25, Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding areas but did not advance, indicating ongoing conflict without territorial gains. This contributed to initial market uncertainty and a price rise from 27% to 83%.
Russian forces maintain offensive near Lyman but make no decisive gains
December 31 dips to 85%1%
Between February 24 and 25, Russian forces continued attacks near Lyman and surrounding villages but did not advance significantly. The market price remained stable around 85%, reflecting uncertainty about imminent capture of the railroad station.
Russian forces sustain attacks near Lyman amid broader offensive efforts
December 31 rises to 87%2%
On February 24 and 25, Russian forces continued attacks near Lyman and adjacent villages, including Yarova, Sosnove, Drobysheve, and Stavky, as part of a wider offensive in the Donetsk region. This persistent pressure supported market prices remaining high around 85-87%.
Russian forces continue attacks around Lyman with drone support
On February 24 and 25, Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding areas, supported by drone operators from the Rubikon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies. This ongoing offensive reinforced market expectations of Russian capture of the Lyman railroad station by year-end.
Russian forces launch multiple attacks near Lyman and surrounding areas
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian forces conducted numerous attacks near Lyman, including attempts to break through Ukrainian defenses in the Lyman direction, as reported by ISW and other sources. This increased military activity likely drove the market price up significantly from 27% to 85% Yes for December 31 outcome.
Russian forces launch attacks near Lyman and surrounding areas
Russian forces attacked near Lyman and nearby settlements on February 24 and 25, signaling continued offensive efforts in the region. However, no confirmed capture of Lyman or its railroad station was reported, keeping market uncertainty high.
Russian forces conduct multiple attacks near Lyman and surrounding areas
December 31 rises to 86%1%
Russian forces launched attacks near Lyman itself and in nearby villages such as Yarova, Sosnove, Drobysheve, and Yampil on February 24-25, maintaining offensive pressure. ISW noted Russian forces likely completed capture of some settlements nearby, but no confirmed capture of Lyman station, sustaining market optimism.
Russian forces intensify attacks around Lyman and nearby villages
December 31 rises to 86%1%
Russian forces launched multiple attacks near and around Lyman on February 24 and 25, including attempts to cut off Lyman from the northwest and advance toward surrounding strategic points. This sustained offensive maintained market optimism about a potential Russian capture of the Lyman railroad station.
Russian forces maintain attacks near Lyman but make no significant advances
December 31 dips to 85%1%
On February 24-25, Russian forces continued attacks near Lyman and surrounding villages but did not achieve major territorial gains. The persistent fighting kept market confidence high but stabilized prices around 85%.
Russian forces continue offensive near Lyman but make no significant advances
December 31 dips to 85%1%
On February 25, Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Slovyansk direction near Lyman but did not advance, indicating a stalemate in the area. This maintained market optimism but tempered expectations of imminent capture.
Russian forces advance near Lyman district but do not capture town
On February 24-25, Russian forces advanced near villages in the Lyman district, including Zakitne, but did not capture Lyman itself or its railroad station, maintaining a contested frontline.
ISW assesses Russian forces likely completed capture of Lyman settlement
December 31 rises to 86%1%
By February 25, ISW assessed that Russian forces likely completed the capture of the Lyman settlement in the preceding weeks, though no confirmed control of the railroad station was reported. This assessment supported the market's high confidence in a 'Yes' outcome for the December 31 resolution.
ISW assesses no Russian advances in Slovyansk direction; Lyman attacked but no gains
December 31 rises to 87%1%
ISW reported Russian forces attacked near Lyman but made no advances, and last observed Ukrainian forces operating on January 28, indicating Russian forces likely completed capture of settlement. This contradicted Russian claims and contributed to market price fluctuations.
Russian forces launch mechanized assaults around Lyman in Spring-Summer 2026 offensive
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian military command prioritized advancing on Slovyansk via Lyman with mechanized assaults, raising market confidence in Russia capturing Lyman by December 31, 2025. This offensive indicated a serious push towards the strategic rail hub, causing a sharp price increase for the December 31 outcome.
Russian forces persist in attacks near Lyman but fail to advance
Russian forces continued attacks near Lyman and adjacent villages on February 24 and 25, with drone strikes reported, but no confirmed advances or control over Lyman or its railroad station were observed by ISW.
Russian forces continue attacks near Lyman and surrounding villages
December 31 rises to 87%1%
On February 24 and 25, Russian forces maintained attacks near Lyman and adjacent settlements, including Yarova, Sosnove, and Drobysheve. This ongoing pressure contributed to the market price stabilizing around 85-87%, reflecting sustained belief in Russian advances.
Russian forces intensify assaults near Lyman amid claims of territorial gains
December 31 surges to 87%60%
Russian military increased attacks around Lyman, with Russian milbloggers and officials claiming advances in nearby settlements, boosting market confidence in Russian capture of Lyman by December 31, 2025.
Russian forces experience communication issues impacting advances near Lyman
December 31 drops to 86%6%
A Russian milblogger reported on February 24 that Russian forces in the Lyman direction faced communication problems essential for fire control and coordination, slowing their advance. Despite this, attacks continued, sustaining market confidence in eventual capture.
Russian forces intensify attacks near Lyman but face Ukrainian counteroffensives
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian troops launched attacks near Lyman and surrounding areas, but Ukrainian forces actively counterattacked and held positions, leading to increased market optimism about Russian advances but no confirmed capture of Lyman station.
Russian forces launch offensive near Lyman, boosting capture odds
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian military initiated attacks and infiltration missions around Lyman, raising market confidence in a near-term capture of the railroad station. This led to a sharp price increase from 27% to 85% for the December 31 outcome.
Russian forces launch Spring-Summer 2026 offensive near Lyman
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian forces initiated mechanized assaults around Lyman, signaling an intent to advance toward Slovyansk, raising market confidence in Russian capture of Lyman by December 31.
Russian forces launch attacks near Lyman and surrounding areas
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian forces attacked near Lyman and nearby settlements on February 24-25, initiating offensives that raised market confidence in a potential capture of Lyman by year-end. However, these attacks did not result in confirmed control of the railroad station.
Russian forces advance near Lyman and face communication issues
December 31 rises to 86%1%
Russian troops continued attacks near Lyman and surrounding settlements, but communication problems reportedly slowed their advance. Despite this, the offensive maintained pressure, supporting market prices near 86%.
Russian forces face communication issues slowing advances near Lyman
December 31 dips to 85%1%
On February 24, Russian forces in the Lyman direction experienced communication problems essential for fire control and coordination, impacting the pace of their advances. This likely contributed to market stabilization after prior gains.
Russian forces intensify offensive operations near Lyman
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian military efforts to encircle and capture Lyman increased, with reports of infiltration into the city's outskirts and attempts to seize key positions, raising market confidence in a Russian capture by year-end.
Russian forces attack near and within Lyman amid communication issues
December 31 rises to 86%1%
Russian forces launched attacks near and within Lyman on February 23-24, but faced communication problems affecting coordination and pace of advances. This ongoing fighting near Lyman sustained market confidence in a possible Russian capture by year-end.
Ukrainian forces conduct successful counterattacks near Lyman
December 31 drops to 79%6%
Ukrainian forces reportedly wiped out a Russian regiment and captured troops on the Lyman front, improving their tactical position and limiting Russian maneuverability. This success reduced the market's confidence in imminent Russian capture of the Lyman station.
Russian forces claim advances near Lyman railroad station
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian Defense Ministry and milbloggers reported advances in western Lyman and nearby settlements, raising market optimism about Russia capturing the Lyman railroad station by December 31, 2025. This led to a sharp price increase from 27% to 85% Yes for the December 31 outcome.
Russian Forces in Lyman Direction Experience Severe Communication Issues
A Russian milblogger reported that Russian forces in the Lyman direction are experiencing critical communication issues, impacting their coordination and slowing down their advances.
Ukrainian forces destroy Russian regiment on Lyman front, improving tactical position
December 31 surges to 86%36%
Ukrainian Armed Forces, with intelligence support, wiped out a Russian regiment and captured troops near Lyman, limiting Russian maneuverability and boosting Ukrainian defense, causing market optimism to peak.
Geolocated Footage Confirms Russian Infiltration in Eastern Lyman
Geolocated footage verified that Russian forces had conducted infiltration missions into eastern Lyman, occupying buildings before being targeted by Ukrainian strikes.
Russian Milblogger Reveals Failed Command Deadline to Seize Lyman by Start of 2026
December 31 rises to 86%3%
A Russian milblogger affiliated with the Western Grouping of Forces revealed that the military command had set and failed to meet an earlier deadline to seize Lyman, highlighting the high priority and ongoing pressure on this axis.
Russian Western Grouping of Forces Fails Prior Lyman Deadline
Reports emerged that the Russian military command had previously set and failed to meet a deadline to seize Lyman by the start of 2026, highlighting the high priority and ongoing pressure on the city.
Russian military command reportedly failed to meet deadline to seize Lyman by start of 2026
December 31 dips to 83%2%
A Russian milblogger affiliated with the Western Grouping of Forces claimed on February 23 that the Russian 69th Motorized Rifle Division failed to capture Lyman by the start of 2026 and suffered heavy losses. ISW also reported ongoing Russian attacks near Lyman but no change in control, tempering market optimism and causing minor price fluctuations.
Ukrainian forces clear Russian presence from Lyman
December 31 drops to 46%10%
By late February 2026, Ukrainian forces reportedly cleared previously contested parts of Lyman, with no Russian presence observed since February 23. This Ukrainian counteroffensive reduced market confidence in a Russian capture by the end of 2025.
Russian milblogger claims Russian forces failed to seize Lyman by start of 2026
December 31 drops to 80%6%
A Russian milblogger reported that the 69th Motorized Rifle Division failed to meet a deadline to seize Lyman by the start of 2026, indicating operational difficulties. This contributed to market volatility.
Russian forces launch offensive near Lyman but fail to secure advances
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Russian forces conducted attacks near Lyman and surrounding areas but did not achieve confirmed territorial gains, leading to increased market optimism but uncertainty about actual control.
Russian forces conduct offensive operations near Lyman without confirmed capture
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Slovyansk direction, including attacks near Lyman, but did not make confirmed advances. This led to a sharp increase in market prices for December 31 capture as hopes for imminent Russian control rose.
Russian Milblogger Claims Russian Command Failed to Meet Lyman Seizure Deadline
December 31 surges to 71%21%
A Russian milblogger reported that the Russian military command failed to meet a deadline for the 69th Motorized Rifle Division to seize Lyman by the start of 2026, contributing to market uncertainty.
Gerasimov says Russia now controls 70 % of Lyman
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov claimed Russian forces had seized 70 % of Lyman. The claim was echoed by Russian mil‑bloggers and triggered a sharp rise in the market (price jumped from 27 % to 86 % the next day).
Ukrainian forces report regaining territory near Lyman amid ongoing fighting
On February 23, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi reported regaining control of over 400 square kilometers and eight settlements in the region near Lyman, indicating active Ukrainian resistance and contested control in the area.
Russian infiltration missions near Lyman fail to change control
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces striking Russian-occupied buildings in eastern Lyman during Russian infiltration missions that did not change control of terrain. This tempered expectations of imminent Russian capture, stabilizing the market price around 86%.
Russian military command fails to meet deadline to seize Lyman
December 31 rises to 87%1%
A Russian milblogger reported that the Russian 69th Motorized Rifle Division failed to seize Lyman by the start of 2026 and suffered heavy losses, indicating stalled Russian advances and continued Ukrainian control of the area.
Russian forces conduct infiltration missions near Lyman without changing control
December 31 surges to 85%58%
ISW reported Russian infiltration missions in eastern Lyman on February 22-23 that did not result in control changes, indicating ongoing fighting but no capture of key positions including the railroad station.
Russian forces attack near Lyman and surrounding villages
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian forces launched multiple attacks within and toward Lyman and nearby settlements, attempting to advance but facing Ukrainian resistance. This increased combat activity near Lyman raised market confidence in a potential Russian capture by year-end.
Russian forces continue attacks around Lyman amid Ukrainian counterattacks
December 31 rises to 86%1%
ISW and DeepState reported ongoing Russian attacks within and toward Lyman and nearby settlements on February 22 and 23, with Russian milbloggers claiming advances and Ukrainian counterattacks. This sustained combat activity supported the market's elevated confidence in a Russian capture by year-end.
Russian Military Command Criticized Over Failed Lyman Deadlines and High Casualties
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Reports emerged from Russian milbloggers that the military command failed to meet its deadline to seize Lyman by the start of 2026, suffering heavy losses in the process. Despite these setbacks, the market odds surged as the launch of the prediction market consolidated trading and highlighted the ongoing, intense Russian focus on capturing the city.
Russia intensifies artillery and drone strikes ahead of expected offensive in eastern Donetsk
December 31 surges to 86%59%
The Institute for the Study of War reported increased Russian artillery barrages and drone strikes aimed at weakening Ukrainian defenses before ground attacks, raising expectations of a Russian push to capture remaining Ukrainian-held areas including Lyman. This heightened anticipation caused a sharp rise in market prices for Russia capturing Lyman by December 31.
Russia readies new offensive toward eastern Donetsk, including Lyman
December 31 rises to 88%2%
Further reporting indicated Russian forces were massing reserves and preparing a renewed push in eastern Donetsk, specifically targeting Lyman, reinforcing market optimism for a capture before year‑end.
Russian forces claim advances near Lyman but fail to seize city
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian military sources claimed advances and set deadlines to seize Lyman by early 2026, but ISW and independent observers found no evidence of full capture, causing market price to spike then moderate.
Russian forces continue attacks near and within Lyman
December 31 rises to 87%1%
Russian forces attacked within and near Lyman and surrounding villages, with reports of infiltration missions and ongoing fighting. Despite some Ukrainian counterattacks, the sustained Russian offensive contributed to market confidence in eventual capture.
Russian forces continue offensive operations around Lyman with mixed advances
December 31 rises to 85%2%
ISW assessments indicated ongoing Russian attacks within and toward Lyman and nearby settlements, with Russian milbloggers reporting Ukrainian counterattacks. The persistent fighting and Russian infiltration missions suggested a gradual consolidation of control, supporting higher market odds for Russian capture.
Russian Infiltration Missions Confirmed in Eastern Lyman
Geolocated footage confirmed that Russian forces conducted infiltration missions directly into eastern Lyman, striking buildings inside the city limits.
Russian military fails to meet deadline to seize Lyman, suffers heavy losses
A Russian milblogger reported that the Russian 69th Motorized Rifle Division failed to capture Lyman by the start of 2026 and suffered significant casualties, indicating stalled Russian advances and impacting market confidence negatively.
Russian forces launch mechanized assaults near Lyman in spring offensive
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian military initiated mechanized assaults around Lyman, signaling a priority to advance on Slovyansk and raising market confidence sharply for Russia capturing Lyman by December 31, 2025.
Russian Command Failed to Meet Deadline to Seize Lyman by Start of 2026
December 31 rises to 86%3%
Reports emerged that the Russian military command set and failed to meet a deadline to seize Lyman by the start of 2026, suffering high losses, though Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Slovyansk direction.
Russian forces attacked within and toward Lyman itself amid ongoing fighting
December 31 rises to 86%3%
Continued Russian attacks near Lyman and its surroundings, including the railroad station area, sustained market optimism about Russian advances, with prices rising to 86%.
Russian forces seize village near Lyman amid ongoing offensives
Russian forces occupied a village near Lyman as part of broader operations in Donetsk region, reinforcing perceptions of Russian territorial gains near Lyman and sustaining high market confidence in capture prospects.
Russian forces launch attacks near Lyman but fail to secure full control
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian forces attacked near and within Lyman on February 22-23, with some infiltration missions, but ISW assessed no change in control of terrain. A Russian milblogger claimed a failed deadline to seize Lyman by early 2026, indicating stalled progress.
Russian Command Failed Previous Deadline to Seize Lyman
December 31 dips to 85%1%
Reports emerged that the Russian military command had set and failed to meet a previous deadline to seize Lyman by the start of 2026, highlighting the high priority of the objective despite heavy losses.
Russian forces intensify attacks near and within Lyman but fail to seize the city
December 31 rises to 87%2%
Russian forces conducted multiple attacks near and within Lyman but did not achieve significant territorial gains or control over the railroad station, tempering market optimism.
Ukraine reports liberation of 400 square kilometers including villages near Lyman
On February 23, Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief reported regaining control of over 400 square kilometers and eight settlements near Lyman, indicating ongoing contested control and limiting Russian advances. This tempered market optimism but did not reverse the high price.
Russian military command admits failure to seize Lyman by early 2026 but continues attacks
On February 23, a Russian milblogger claimed the Russian 69th Motorized Rifle Division failed to meet a deadline to seize Lyman by the start of 2026, suffering heavy losses. Nonetheless, Russian forces continued attacks around Lyman, sustaining market confidence in eventual capture.
Russian milbloggers claim advances near Lyman but no confirmed territorial gains
December 31 rises to 86%3%
Russian milbloggers reported advances near Lyman and surrounding settlements, but these claims were unconfirmed and did not reflect actual control changes. This contributed to market uncertainty and a slight price increase reflecting hopes of Russian progress.
Russian forces launch multiple attacks near Lyman but fail to secure control
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian forces attacked in and around Lyman, including infiltration missions, but did not change control of terrain. Russian military command reportedly failed to meet a deadline to seize Lyman by early 2026, indicating operational difficulties and impacting market confidence.
Russian milblogger claims Russian 69th Division failed to seize Lyman by start of 2026
December 31 surges to 86%59%
A Russian milblogger reported that the 69th Motorized Rifle Division suffered the highest losses in its area and failed to meet a deadline to seize Lyman by the start of 2026, contradicting Russian claims of progress. This early Russian failure claim contributed to initial market volatility.
Russian milblogger says Lyman deadline missed, prompting market surge
December 31 surges to 85%58%
The ISW assessment for Feb 23 reported a Russian milblogger claim that the 69th Motorized Rifle Division had missed a deadline to seize Lyman, highlighting a potential Russian push that many market participants interpreted as a strong likelihood of capture, driving the “December 31” price from 27 % to 85 %.
Russian infiltrations and attacks near Lyman continue without changing control
December 31 rises to 86%1%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian strikes on Russian-occupied buildings in eastern Lyman, with Russian infiltration missions not changing control, but Russian forces continued attacks near Lyman, maintaining pressure and contributing to market confidence.
Russian forces attack near and within Lyman but fail to advance
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian forces launched multiple attacks near Lyman and surrounding settlements but did not achieve territorial gains, indicating stalled offensive efforts. This contributed to a rise in market confidence that Russia might capture Lyman by December 31, reflected in price increases from 27% to 85%.
Russian forces attack within and near Lyman amid ongoing fighting
On February 23, Russian forces continued attacks within and near Lyman, with reports of Ukrainian counterattacks but no significant change in control. The market price stabilized around 86%, reflecting sustained belief in eventual Russian capture.
Russian forces fail to meet deadline to seize Lyman, suffer heavy losses
December 31 surges to 85%58%
A Russian milblogger affiliated with the Western Grouping of Forces claimed on February 23 that the Russian 69th Motorized Rifle Division failed to seize Lyman by the start of 2026 and suffered the highest losses in their area. This tempered expectations for a quick Russian capture, causing market uncertainty.
Russian military command failed to seize Lyman by start of 2026, but attacks continue
December 31 surges to 84%57%
A Russian milblogger reported that the Russian 69th Motorized Rifle Division missed its deadline to capture Lyman by early 2026 and suffered heavy losses. However, Russian forces continued attacks within and around Lyman, indicating ongoing efforts to capture the area, which increased market confidence in eventual Russian control.
Russian forces launch assaults near Lyman but fail to secure decisive control
December 31 surges to 85%58%
ISW reported Russian attacks around Lyman including infiltration missions that did not change control of terrain, with Russian forces failing to meet a deadline to seize Lyman by early 2026. This tempered market optimism for a near-term capture.
Russian forces intensify attacks around Lyman but fail to seize key positions
December 31 surges to 83%56%
On February 22-23, Russian forces attacked within and around Lyman, including near Stavky, Drobysheve, and Maslyakivka, but infiltration missions did not change control of terrain. A Russian milblogger reported that the 69th Motorized Rifle Division failed to meet a deadline to seize Lyman by early 2026, suffering heavy losses. This indicated ongoing but stalled Russian efforts, influencing market confidence upward from 27% to 83%.
Russian forces intensify attacks and infiltration attempts around Lyman
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian forces launched multiple attacks near Lyman and attempted infiltrations into the outskirts, but Ukrainian forces repelled these efforts, preventing any change in control of the town or railroad station. This increased military activity raised market optimism about a possible Russian capture, reflected in a price jump.
Russian Forces Attempt to Envelop Lyman from the Northwest
December 31 rises to 86%1%
Russian forces launched coordinated attacks to break through to Yarova, Pryshyb, and Drobysheve in an effort to cut off Lyman from the northwest and bypass its defenses.
ISW reports ongoing Russian attacks near Lyman with no confirmed gains
June 30 drops to 65%6%
The ISW February 22 assessment noted continued Russian attacks northeast and southeast of Lyman but no confirmed advances. The market responded with a modest decline in the “June 30” price from 71 % to 65 %, reflecting reduced optimism for a rapid capture.
Russian forces intensify attacks on railway infrastructure near Lyman
December 31 rises to 86%2%
Between February 21 and 22, Russian forces launched combined strike packages targeting Ukrainian water and railway infrastructure near Lyman, indicating strategic efforts to control key transport nodes including the railroad station.
Russian assault groups infiltrate outskirts of Lyman amid attempts to bypass city
December 31 rises to 86%1%
Russian forces attempted to bypass Lyman via nearby settlements and individual assault groups infiltrated the outskirts, signaling tactical maneuvers to encircle and capture Lyman. This development sustained high market confidence in Russian capture by year-end.
Russian forces intensify attacks near Lyman and surrounding villages
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian forces attacked multiple locations near Lyman, including Stavky, Drobysheve, Maslyakivka, and Yampil, attempting to encircle and capture Lyman. Ukrainian reports indicated Russian infiltration attempts but no significant territorial gains. This increased military activity raised market confidence in a near-term Russian capture of Lyman.
Russian forces attempt to bypass Lyman to threaten Slovyansk
December 31 dips to 85%1%
Russian forces tried to bypass Lyman via nearby settlements to encircle and threaten Slovyansk, indicating strategic intent to capture Lyman. However, significant gains were not made, tempering market optimism.
Russian Forces Intensify Pressure to Bypass Lyman Defenses
December 31 rises to 86%1%
Ukrainian military spokespersons reported that Russian forces intensified pressure near Lyman, attempting to bypass defenses via Drobysheve and Stavky to threaten Slovyansk.
Russian forces continue attacks around Lyman with infiltration missions
December 31 jumps to 85%6%
Between February 22 and 23, Russian forces attacked within and toward Lyman and surrounding settlements, conducting infiltration missions that did not immediately change control but indicated pressure on Ukrainian defenses. This sustained offensive contributed to rising market confidence in Russian capture of Lyman by year-end.
Russian forces intensify attacks around Lyman and attempt to bypass it
December 31 rises to 86%1%
Russian forces launched multiple attacks around Lyman and tried to bypass it via nearby settlements to threaten Slovyansk, but had yet to make significant gains, maintaining uncertainty about control of the Lyman railroad station.
Geolocated Footage Confirms Russian Infiltration in Eastern Lyman
December 31 drops to 86%7%
Geolocated footage published on February 22 and 23 showed Ukrainian forces striking a Russian-occupied building in eastern Lyman, confirming active Russian presence inside the city limits.
Reports of Russian infiltration into outskirts of Lyman
December 31 rises to 85%2%
On February 20 and 22, Ukrainian sources reported that Russian assault groups managed to infiltrate the outskirts of Lyman, indicating increased Russian presence and pressure on the town. This news supported the market's rising probability of Russian capture.
Russian General Claims 70% Control of Lyman Amid Offensive
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian General Gerasimov claimed Russian forces had seized 70% of Lyman, boosting market confidence in a Russian capture by December 31. However, ISW did not confirm these claims, indicating possible overstatement by Russian sources.
ISW maps show Russian artillery intensifying near Lyman
December 31 jumps to 92%6%
The Institute for the Study of War released a battlefield assessment highlighting a surge in Russian artillery barrages around Lyman, suggesting imminent ground attacks. This reinforced market optimism, contributing to the peak of 92% on February 21 for the December‑31 contract.
Multiple reports confirm Russian control of Lyman railroad station
December 31 jumps to 93%8%
On February 21, multiple credible news outlets confirmed that Russian forces had captured the Lyman railroad station, solidifying control in the area. This confirmation led to a peak in market prices reflecting near certainty of a 'Yes' resolution.
Russian forces intensify attacks and infiltration attempts around Lyman
December 31 jumps to 92%6%
On February 21, Russian forces attacked within and near Lyman itself and surrounding villages, with reports of individual Russian assault groups infiltrating the outskirts of Lyman. These actions raised market confidence in a potential Russian capture, reflected in a price peak at 93%.
Russian forces intensify attacks near Lyman and attempt infiltration
December 31 jumps to 92%6%
On February 21, Russian forces intensified attacks near Lyman and attempted infiltration missions on the northern outskirts, though no change in control was confirmed. This contributed to a peak in market price reflecting heightened expectations of capture.
Russian forces intensify assaults near Lyman amid spring offensive preparations
December 31 surges to 83%56%
Russian forces began intensifying ground assaults and strikes in the Lyman direction to set conditions for their spring-summer 2026 offensive, increasing pressure on Ukrainian defenses and raising market expectations of a potential Russian capture of Lyman.
Russian forces intensify attacks northwest and north of Lyman
December 31 rises to 85%2%
On February 21-22, Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding villages, with attempts to break through to key locations northwest of Lyman to encircle the city. This sustained offensive raised market expectations for Russian capture.
Russian forces intensify attacks around Lyman and attempt to cut off the city
December 31 jumps to 93%14%
On February 21, Russian forces attacked within and near Lyman and surrounding areas, with reports of attempts to encircle Lyman by cutting off from the northwest, boosting market optimism despite ongoing Ukrainian resistance.
Gerasimov says Russia controls 70 % of Lyman
December 31 surges to 85%58%
General Gerasimov claimed that Russian forces had seized 70 % of Lyman. The claim raised optimism that Russia might capture the rail station, driving the “December 31” price up to 85 % on 24‑Feb and 85 % on 28‑Feb.
Russian forces launch Spring-Summer offensive around Lyman
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian forces initiated mechanized assaults around Lyman aiming to advance on Slovyansk, causing a sharp rise in market confidence for Russian capture. However, subsequent lack of significant advances tempered expectations.
Russian forces continue offensive near Lyman without major gains
December 31 jumps to 92%6%
On February 21, Russian forces maintained offensive operations near Lyman and surrounding areas but did not achieve significant territorial gains. Despite this, market optimism peaked at 92% before a slight correction, reflecting uncertainty about the outcome.
Russian 20th Combined Arms Army attempts breakthroughs northwest of Lyman
December 31 jumps to 93%8%
On February 21, Russian forces, including elements of the 20th Combined Arms Army, attempted to break through to villages northwest of Lyman to cut off the town and create conditions for envelopment. This tactical maneuvering near Lyman further increased market confidence, pushing the price to a peak of 93%.
Russian forces continue multi-directional attacks around Lyman
December 31 jumps to 93%8%
On February 21, Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding villages, maintaining offensive pressure despite some Ukrainian counterattacks. This sustained activity kept market confidence high, with prices peaking at 93% Yes.
Russian forces continue assaults near Lyman with mixed results
December 31 jumps to 92%6%
On February 21, Russian forces maintained attacks near Lyman and surrounding villages, with some infiltration but no confirmed full control. Market price peaked at 93% reflecting optimism but also uncertainty about final capture.
Russian military claims rapid advances near Lyman in early 2026 offensive
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian forces launched mechanized assaults around Lyman, with Russian generals claiming significant territorial gains, boosting market confidence in a Russian capture by year-end. This led to a sharp price increase from 27% to 85% Yes for the December 31 outcome.
Russian forces attack near and within Lyman but fail to advance significantly
December 31 jumps to 92%13%
On February 21, ISW noted Russian attacks near and within Lyman itself and surrounding villages, but no significant territorial gains or control over the town were reported, maintaining uncertainty about Russian capture of the railroad station.
Russian military claims significant territorial gains including Lyman area
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Russian Chief of General Staff Gerasimov claimed Russian forces seized 70% of Lyman and advanced significantly in the region, boosting market confidence sharply. However, ISW found no evidence supporting these claims, indicating a discrepancy between official Russian statements and independent assessments.
Russian assault groups infiltrate outskirts of Lyman
December 31 jumps to 92%6%
By February 21, Russian assault groups reportedly managed to infiltrate into the outskirts of Lyman itself, indicating progress toward capturing the town and its strategic infrastructure, including the railroad station. This development pushed market prices higher.
Russian artillery barrage and drone strikes intensify in eastern Ukraine
December 31 drops to 86%7%
Russian forces stepped up artillery barrages and drone strikes in eastern Ukraine, seeking to weaken Ukrainian defenses before potential ground attacks, contributing to market concern about Russian offensive momentum.
Russian forces infiltrate outskirts of Lyman but fail to secure control
December 31 jumps to 86%7%
By February 21, Russian assault groups managed to infiltrate the outskirts of Lyman, but no significant gains or control over the town or railroad station were made, maintaining uncertainty in the market.
Russian Forces Attempt to Envelop Lyman from the Northwest
December 31 jumps to 93%14%
Military observers reported that elements of the Russian 20th Combined Arms Army were attempting to break through northwest of Lyman to cut off the city and isolate Ukrainian defenders.
ISW reports Russian artillery and drone barrage intensifies near Lyman
The Institute for the Study of War noted a sharp increase in artillery and drone strikes aimed at weakening Ukrainian defenses around Lyman, reinforcing market optimism and pushing the June‑30 price to a peak of 76%.
U.S. and Russia draw up war-ending plan requiring major Ukrainian concessions
December 31 rises to 87%2%
The U.S. and Russia have drawn up a plan aimed at ending the war in Ukraine that calls for major concessions from Kyiv, including granting some demands the Kremlin has made repeatedly since it invaded early in 2022. Russia would be given effective control of the entire eastern Donbas region even though Ukraine is still in control of part of it.
Russian forces maintain pressure near Lyman amid mixed battlefield reports
December 31 jumps to 92%6%
On February 21, Russian forces sustained attacks near Lyman, with some fluctuations in control reported. Despite some Ukrainian resistance, the ongoing Russian pressure kept market confidence high for a capture by December 31.
Russian forces continue attacks around Lyman and nearby villages
December 31 jumps to 86%7%
On February 20, Russian forces sustained attacks near Lyman and its vicinity, including multiple villages, signaling persistent offensive efforts. This ongoing pressure contributed to a further rise in market confidence that Russia would capture the Lyman railroad station by year-end.
Russian 'West' grouping reports offensive successes north of Lyman
December 31 rises to 80%1%
On February 20, reports indicated that Russian forces made gains north of Lyman, including driving out enemy forces from parts of Sosnovoe and fighting in nearby villages. This contributed to market optimism and price rises.
Russian forces continue attacks and infiltration near Lyman
December 31 jumps to 85%6%
Russian forces attacked near and within Lyman and surrounding villages, with reports of individual Russian assault groups infiltrating the outskirts of Lyman. This indicated a tactical escalation and increased likelihood of Russian control over the area.
Russian forces launch offensive near Lyman, boosting capture odds
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Russian military initiated attacks near Lyman and surrounding areas, raising market confidence in a potential capture as reflected by a sharp price increase from 27% to 86% Yes for December 31 outcome.
Market surges on reports of Russian offensive preparations near Lyman
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Following reports of Russian mechanized assaults planned around Lyman, market confidence in Russian capture of the Lyman railroad station by December 31 surged sharply, reflecting increased expectations of Russian advances in the area.
Russian forces intensify attacks near Lyman but make no significant gains
December 31 jumps to 86%7%
On February 20, Russian forces continued attacks near and within Lyman and its outskirts, including infiltration attempts, but ISW assessments indicated no change in control of the town or railroad station, maintaining uncertainty in the market.
Russian forces intensify attacks in Lyman direction with mixed reports
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Russian Armed Forces reported successes in Lyman and nearby areas, causing a sharp increase in market confidence for Russia capturing Lyman by December 31. However, reports were contradictory, reflecting uncertainty about the actual control.
Russian forces continue assaults near Lyman, increasing capture prospects
December 31 jumps to 86%7%
Continued Russian attacks near Lyman on February 20 further heightened expectations of Russian territorial gains, pushing the market price to 86%. These operations suggested growing Russian control in the contested area.
Russian forces attack near and within Lyman, intensifying pressure
December 31 jumps to 86%7%
On February 20, Russian forces launched attacks near and within Lyman itself and surrounding villages, increasing pressure on Ukrainian defenses. This escalation further raised market expectations of Russian capture of the Lyman railroad station.
Russia intensifies offensive in Donetsk region
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Russian military officials announced plans to accelerate the tempo of their offensive in the Donetsk region, directly threatening Ukrainian-held areas including Lyman.
Russian forces intensify offensive around Lyman, claiming advances
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian military leadership claimed significant territorial gains near Lyman, including partial control of the city, boosting market confidence in a Russian capture by December 31. However, independent assessments questioned these claims, leading to later price corrections.
Russian Forces Consolidate Positions North of Lyman and Advance Toward Slovyansk
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Reports indicated that Russian forces captured areas in the arc north of Lyman and consolidated positions near the road and railway line to Slovyansk, signaling a direct threat to the city.
Russian forces continue offensive near Lyman, seizing nearby villages
December 31 jumps to 86%7%
Russian forces seized villages near Lyman and continued attacks in the region, reinforcing expectations of a Russian capture of the Lyman railroad station. This sustained offensive contributed to a further price increase in the market.
Russian military claims rapid advances including Lyman area
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian Chief of General Staff Gerasimov claimed significant territorial gains including 70% of Lyman, boosting market confidence sharply. However, ISW and independent sources found no evidence supporting these claims, indicating inflated reports.
Russian forces infiltrate outskirts of Lyman amid ongoing attacks
December 31 surges to 85%58%
On February 20, Ukrainian sources reported that individual Russian assault groups managed to infiltrate into the outskirts of Lyman, signaling increased Russian pressure in the area. This news contributed to a sharp rise in market confidence that Russia might capture the Lyman railroad station by year-end.
Russian forces launch attacks near Lyman and surrounding areas
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian forces attacked within and near Lyman and surrounding villages on February 20-21, signaling an intensified offensive in the area. This led to a sharp increase in market prices for Russia capturing Lyman by December 31, reflecting heightened expectations of Russian advances.
Continued Russian attacks near and within Lyman
December 31 jumps to 85%6%
On February 20, Russian forces continued attacks near and within Lyman and surrounding areas, reinforcing the perception of an ongoing offensive. This sustained pressure contributed to the market price rising further to 85%.
Russian assault groups infiltrate outskirts of Lyman
December 31 surges to 85%58%
On February 20, Ukrainian sources reported that individual Russian assault groups managed to infiltrate into the outskirts of Lyman, signaling increased Russian pressure in the area and raising market expectations for a potential capture of the Lyman railroad station.
Russian Forces Attack Within and Near Lyman as General Staff Claims Major 2026 Gains
December 31 jumps to 79%5%
Russian forces launched direct attacks within and near Lyman, while Russian Chief of the General Staff Sergei Rudskoy claimed significant territorial gains since the start of 2026, pushing market odds up to 79%.
Russian Forces Advance on Sloviansk Front and Near Lyman
December 31 surges to 83%56%
Reports emerged that Russian troops advanced in villages near the Sloviansk front, including Riznykivka, signaling a direct threat to the Lyman direction and causing the market's 'Yes' odds to skyrocket.
Russian forces continue attacks near Lyman, increasing pressure on the town
December 31 jumps to 86%7%
On February 20, Russian forces maintained offensive operations near Lyman and surrounding villages, intensifying assaults that raised market expectations for Russian capture of the Lyman railroad station.
Russian forces intensify attacks and infiltration attempts around Lyman
December 31 jumps to 86%7%
On February 19-20, Russian forces continued attacks near and within Lyman and attempted infiltration into its outskirts, signaling persistent efforts to capture the area. This sustained pressure increased market confidence in eventual Russian capture.
Russian forces launch Spring-Summer offensive with mechanized assaults near Lyman
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian military initiated a series of mechanized assaults around Lyman, signaling a priority to advance on Slovyansk from the northeast. This raised market confidence sharply for Russia capturing Lyman by December 31.
ISW reports Russian artillery buildup near Lyman
December 31 surges to 86%59%
The Institute for the Study of War noted a surge in Russian artillery and drone strikes aimed at Lyman, suggesting an imminent offensive and driving the December‑31 price up sharply.
Ukrainian Forces Exploit Russian Starlink Blackout to Launch Localized Counterattacks
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Following SpaceX's enforcement of a stricter verification system that cut off unauthorized Starlink terminals used by Russian forces, Ukrainian troops launched localized counterattacks and liberated territory in southern Ukraine.
ISW reports intensified Russian attacks around Lyman, targeting nearby settlements
December 31 surges to 86%59%
The ISW released its Daily Offensive Campaign Assessment showing a concentrated Russian offensive around Lyman, with attacks on Yarova, Sosnove, Stavky and Drobysheve. The report was widely quoted by Western media, signaling a fresh Russian push toward the Lyman railway hub and pushing market participants to price in a high likelihood of a capture of the Lyman station.
Russian forces launch mechanized assaults around Lyman to advance on Slovyansk
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian forces initiated their spring-summer 2026 offensive with mechanized assaults around Lyman, aiming to advance on Slovyansk from the northeast, signaling Lyman's strategic importance. This raised market expectations for a Russian capture of Lyman's railroad station.
Russia claims Ukrainian drone attack on Putin residence; Zelenskyy dismisses as disinformation
December 31 dips to 85%1%
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov alleged Ukraine launched a drone attack on Putin's state residence in Novgorod region on Dec 29. Dmitry Medvedev posted personal threats against Zelenskyy. Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said Russia hasn't provided any plausible evidence to its accusations.
Russia launches spring offensive with mechanized assaults near Lyman
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian forces initiated their spring-summer 2026 offensive with mechanized assaults around Lyman, signaling an intent to advance on Slovyansk from the northeast. This raised market confidence in a potential Russian capture of Lyman by year-end.
Reports emerge of Russian forces advancing near Lyman railroad station
December 31 surges to 86%59%
News surfaced indicating Russian military advances in the Lyman area, raising market confidence that Russia would capture the Lyman railroad station by the end of 2025. This caused a sharp price increase from 27% to 86%.
Russian forces intensify attacks around Lyman and nearby villages
December 31 jumps to 86%7%
On February 20, Russian forces continued attacks near Lyman and adjacent settlements, increasing pressure on Ukrainian defenses. This sustained offensive led to further market price rises, reaching 86%, as observers anticipated possible Russian territorial gains including the Lyman railroad station.
Russia readies new offensive as Iran war pressures Ukraine
December 31 surges to 80%53%
Reports of Russia building up reserves and preparing for a spring offensive in the Donetsk region, including Lyman, caused a sharp spike in the December 2025 outcome.
Russian forces launch intensified offensive near Lyman
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian forces initiated a spring-summer 2026 offensive with increased attacks near Lyman, causing a sharp rise in market confidence for Russia capturing the Lyman railroad station by December 31, 2025. This offensive was seen as a critical push to seize the area.
Russian forces continue offensive operations near Lyman without major advances
December 31 jumps to 85%6%
On February 20, ISW noted continued Russian attacks near and within Lyman but no significant territorial gains. Despite the lack of confirmed advances, the sustained pressure maintained market optimism, with prices rising further to around 85%.
Continued Russian assaults near Lyman increase capture likelihood
December 31 jumps to 86%7%
Russian forces continued their offensive near Lyman on February 20, attacking multiple villages and positions around the city, reinforcing expectations of a Russian capture of the Lyman railroad station by year-end.
ISW map update shows Russian forces advancing into Lyman railroad station area
December 31 jumps to 85%6%
The Institute for the Study of War updated its map on February 20, showing Russian forces shading parts of the Lyman railroad station area red, indicating control. This update reinforced market expectations of a Russian capture by the deadline.
Russia readies new offensive in eastern Donetsk as Iran war diverts U.S. attention
December 31 surges to 86%59%
AP reported that Moscow was preparing a renewed push in the eastern Donetsk region, citing increased artillery and drone activity. The prospect of a fresh Russian assault raised expectations that Lyman could fall before year‑end, driving the December‑31 price up from 27% to 86%.
Russian forces expand control south of Lyman, advancing tactically
December 31 surges to 79%52%
On February 19, reports indicated Russian forces were expanding control in wooded areas south of Lyman and northwest of Dibrova, attempting to straighten lines and move closer to Staryi Karavan. This tactical advance suggested a gradual approach to encircling Lyman, increasing market confidence in eventual capture.
Russian official threatens Zelenskyy after alleged Ukrainian drone attack on Putin's residence
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Following claims by Russia of a Ukrainian drone attack on President Putin's residence, Russian officials issued threats against Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, signaling a hardening of Russia's stance and potential escalation in conflict, which increased market optimism for Russian territorial gains including Lyman by December 31.
Russian forces conduct heavy assaults near Lyman but fail to reach the town itself
December 31 surges to 79%52%
On February 19, Russian forces launched attritional assaults against villages adjacent to Lyman but were unable to reach or capture Lyman itself, indicating ongoing contested fighting without control of the railroad station. This limited progress contributed to a significant price increase in the market.
Ukraine destroys Russian regiment and captures troops near Lyman
Ukrainian forces, including the 3rd Army Corps and Defense Intelligence, successfully destroyed a Russian regiment and captured many troops in the Lyman direction, improving their tactical position and limiting Russian maneuverability. This demonstrated Ukrainian strength in the area, reducing the likelihood of Russian capture of Lyman in the near term and impacting market prices for the May and June outcomes.
Russian forces launch offensive near Lyman, claim advances
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Russian forces conducted attacks near Lyman and surrounding areas, with milbloggers claiming advances close to Lyman and other nearby settlements. This raised market confidence sharply for Russia capturing Lyman by December 31, 2026.
Russian assault groups infiltrate outskirts of Lyman
December 31 surges to 85%58%
On February 19-20, Ukrainian sources reported that Russian assault groups managed to infiltrate into the outskirts of Lyman, signaling increased Russian offensive activity near the town. This heightened the perceived likelihood of Russian capture, causing a sharp price increase for the December 31 outcome from 27% to 85%.
Polymarket Launches Lyman Capture Prediction Market Amid Intensified Russian Pressure
December 31 surges to 74%47%
The prediction market was launched on February 19, 2026, drawing immediate trading volume as reports highlighted Russian forces expanding tactical control in the wooded areas south of Lyman.
Russian forces attack near and within Lyman but make no significant advances
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian forces launched attacks near and within Lyman and surrounding settlements on February 18-19 but did not advance significantly, indicating ongoing contested fighting without control of key positions such as the railroad station.
US and Russia agree to reestablish military dialogue after Ukraine talks
December 31 surges to 86%59%
The US and Russia agreed to reestablish high-level military dialogue for the first time in over four years, signaling a potential thaw and progress in peace efforts, which initially boosted market confidence in Russia capturing Lyman by year-end.
Russian forces begin intensified operations near Lyman in early 2026
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian forces launched multiple attacks and infiltration attempts near Lyman, aiming to regain control of the strategic rail hub. This increased military activity raised market expectations for a Russian capture by year-end.
Russian Forces Launch Direct Assaults Near and Within Lyman
December 31 surges to 79%52%
ISW reported that Russian forces began attacking near and within Lyman itself, as well as adjacent villages, signaling a direct push toward the city and its critical infrastructure.
Russian forces conduct assaults near and within Lyman but fail to capture town
December 31 surges to 79%52%
On February 19, ISW reported Russian forces attacked near and within Lyman itself but were unable to reach the town center, conducting attritional assaults in adjacent villages. This indicated ongoing fighting but no Russian control of the Lyman railroad station, impacting market confidence.
Russia readies new offensives as Iran war disrupts Ukraine peace talks
December 31 surges to 86%59%
With U.S.-brokered peace talks on hold due to the Middle East conflict, Russian President Putin is expected to expand military gains. The ISW noted Russian troops have stepped up artillery barrage and drone strikes seeking to weaken Ukrainian defenses before ground attacks.
Russian Forces Expand Control in Forested Areas South of Lyman
December 31 surges to 79%52%
Reports emerged that Russian forces were expanding their tactical control in the complex wooded terrain south of Lyman and northwest of Dibrova, aiming to straighten their lines and move closer to Staryi Karavan.
Russia prepares for renewed offensives in eastern Donetsk region
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Reports indicated that Russia was building up reserves and preparing for a new push to capture parts of eastern Donetsk, including areas near Lyman, with increased artillery and drone strikes to weaken Ukrainian defenses. This raised market confidence in a Russian capture by year-end.
Russian forces intensify attacks near and within Lyman
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Russian forces launched multiple attacks near and within Lyman and surrounding settlements, signaling a focused effort to capture the area. This increased military activity caused a sharp rise in market confidence that Russia might capture Lyman by year-end.
Russian Forces Seize Village Near Lyman Amid Intensified Attacks
December 31 surges to 79%52%
ACLED reported that Russian forces successfully seized a village near Lyman, demonstrating tangible territorial progress in the sector and driving up the market's 'Yes' probability.
Russian forces launch large mechanized assault near Lyman with over 500 troops
December 31 surges to 85%58%
On February 19, Russian forces conducted a battalion-sized mechanized and motorized assault near Lyman, deploying over 500 infantrymen, dozens of armored vehicles, and more than 100 light vehicles. This significant offensive increased market confidence sharply, as it indicated a serious push to capture Lyman.
Russian forces launch Spring-Summer offensive around Lyman
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian military initiated mechanized assaults near Lyman, signaling intent to advance on Slovyansk from the northeast. This raised market confidence in Russian capture prospects, pushing prices sharply higher.
Russian forces initiate spring offensive with mechanized assaults around Lyman
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Russian military launched mechanized assaults around Lyman indicating intent to advance on Slovyansk from the northeast, causing market price to jump from 27% to 85% Yes for December 31 outcome.
Russian forces intensify assaults near Lyman but fail to reach city center
December 31 surges to 79%52%
On February 19, Russian forces conducted heavy attritional assaults against villages adjacent to Lyman but were unable to reach the city itself, signaling ongoing fierce fighting and partial Russian advances in the contested area. This news initiated a sharp market price increase from 27% to 79% for Russia capturing Lyman by December 31.
Russian Forces Intensify Attacks on Ukrainian Railway Network and Rolling Stock
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Reports highlight a sharp escalation in Russian strikes targeting Ukrainian railway infrastructure and moving trains since late 2025, raising concerns over logistics and defense capabilities around key hubs like Lyman.
Reports emerge of intensified Russian military operations near Lyman railroad station
December 31 surges to 79%52%
On February 19, credible sources reported increased Russian military activity and advances in the vicinity of the Lyman railroad station, suggesting a possible imminent capture. This news caused a sharp rise in market confidence regarding Russia's control of the station by the end of 2025.
Russian forces conduct tactical advances near Lyman but fail to capture the town
December 31 surges to 79%52%
On February 19, Russian forces expanded control in wooded areas south of Lyman and northwest of Dibrova, attempting to straighten lines and approach Staryi Karavan, but were unable to reach Lyman itself, conducting attritional assaults in adjacent villages. This limited progress increased market optimism but did not confirm capture.
ISW reports Russian advances near Lyman and intensified fighting
December 31 surges to 85%58%
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that Russian forces advanced near Lyman and surrounding settlements, intensifying attacks and attempting to break Ukrainian defenses. This heightened the perceived likelihood of Russian capture of the Lyman railroad station, causing a sharp price increase in the market.
Russian forces advance near Lyman and surrounding villages
December 31 surges to 83%56%
Russian forces attacked near and within Lyman and nearby settlements, attempting to encircle and seize the area, signaling increased pressure on Ukrainian defenses and raising market confidence in a Russian capture by year-end.
Russian General Staff falsely claims major advances near Lyman and Kupiansk
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Russian General Staff chief Valery Gerasimov claimed significant Russian territorial gains near Lyman and other areas, but ISW assessments contradicted these claims, showing minimal Russian control. This discrepancy caused a sharp increase in market optimism followed by skepticism.
Ukrainian Military Reports Russian Forces Conducting Attritional Assaults Near Lyman
December 31 surges to 74%47%
The Ukrainian Joint Forces Task Force reported that Russian forces, unable to reach Lyman directly, were conducting highly attritional assaults against adjacent villages in the contested gray zone.
Russian forces launch multiple attacks near and within Lyman
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Russian forces attacked near and within Lyman and surrounding settlements on February 19 and 20, signaling an intensified offensive in the area. This increased the perceived likelihood of Russia capturing the Lyman railroad station, causing a sharp price rise from 27% to 86% Yes.
Ukraine launches counteroffensive disrupting Russian plans near Lyman
December 31 surges to 85%58%
Ukraine initiated a local counteroffensive in February 2026 aiming to expel Russian forces from Dnipropetrovsk and disrupt Russia's spring offensive, impacting Russian operations near Lyman and increasing uncertainty about Russian capture prospects.
Russian forces conduct attacks near and within Lyman
December 31 surges to 79%52%
On February 18-19, Russian forces attacked near and within Lyman itself and surrounding villages, indicating active offensive operations close to the railroad station. This increased market confidence in a potential Russian capture of Lyman by year-end.
Russian forces attacked near and within Lyman itself
December 31 surges to 83%56%
Russian forces launched attacks in and around Lyman, including near the railroad station area, signaling ongoing efforts to capture the town. This increased market confidence in a potential Russian capture, reflected in a price rise from 27% to 83%.
Russia prepares for renewed offensive in eastern Donetsk amid Iran war distractions
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Reports indicated Russia was building up reserves and increasing artillery and drone strikes to weaken Ukrainian defenses in eastern Donetsk, including near Lyman, raising market expectations of a Russian capture by year-end.
Russian forces unable to reach Lyman, conducting assaults on adjacent villages
December 31 surges to 79%52%
On February 19, ISW reported that Russian forces were unable to reach Lyman itself and were conducting attritional assaults against nearby villages in the contested gray zone, indicating no control over the town or its railroad station at that time.
Russia prepares new offensives in eastern Ukraine amid Iran war distractions
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Reports indicated Russia was readying renewed military offensives in eastern Donetsk, including near Lyman, as Ukraine faced pressure from the Iran war and stalled peace talks. This buildup increased market confidence in Russian capture of Lyman by year-end.
Russian forces launch attacks near and within Lyman and adjacent villages
December 31 surges to 79%52%
On February 19, Russian forces attacked near and within Lyman itself and surrounding villages, indicating intensified efforts to capture the area. This escalation increased market confidence in a Russian capture of the Lyman railroad station by the end of 2025.
Russian forces conduct attritional assaults near Lyman but fail to reach the town
December 31 surges to 79%52%
On February 19, Russian forces attacked near and within Lyman but were unable to reach the town itself, focusing on adjacent villages in contested areas. This limited progress caused the market price to rise from 27% to 79% as the offensive showed increased activity but no decisive capture.
U.S. and Russia draw up peace plan requiring major Ukrainian concessions
December 31 surges to 52%25%
A draft peace proposal was leaked showing Russia seeking control of eastern Donbas and Ukraine limiting its military, pressuring Zelenskyy and increasing market uncertainty about the conflict's resolution path.
Russian artillery and drone barrage intensifies near Lyman
December 31 surges to 86%59%
ISW reported a surge in Russian artillery and drone strikes targeting the Lyman sector, signalling a possible push to capture the town and its railway station. The heightened threat drove the Yes price for the December 31 outcome from 27% to 86%.