Ukrainian forces maintain control of Kupiansk while steadily shrinking the Russian bridgehead north of the city along the Oskil River through counteroffensives near Dvorichna and Zapadne. Russian troops continue limited infiltrations into Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi and the city outskirts, often via tunnels or pipelines, but Ukrainian units have repelled these attempts and struck Russian positions in Tyshchenkivka and along rail lines. Recent ISW assessments note Ukrainian advances in the Borova direction and confirm that Russian milblogger claims of seizing key settlements remain unverified amid ongoing fighting. These battlefield dynamics, combined with Ukrainian pressure on Russian logistics and broader gains near Lyman and Sloviansk, shape trader views on timelines for any potential Russian capture of the city by year-end or other resolution dates. Scheduled winter conditions and ongoing artillery exchanges could influence near-term movement on the axis.