Russia’s military continues to face significant personnel demands from its campaign in Ukraine, with Ukrainian assessments estimating needs of roughly 300,000 additional recruits annually to sustain operations and meet territorial objectives. Post-September 2026 State Duma elections, however, no new forced mobilization wave has been declared, despite earlier rumors and infrastructure expansions such as an electronic reservist registry. Instead, authorities are executing the routine autumn conscription of approximately 120,000 men under the year-round draft system, accompanied by repeated high-level denials from President Putin and other officials. Contract and volunteer recruitment, plus a modest authorized force increase of 15,500 personnel, remain the preferred channels. Traders therefore weigh the political costs of a public announcement against battlefield attrition and the Kremlin’s capacity for incremental or covert measures when assessing announcement probabilities.