Name: Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase September 30-October 6?
Start: 2025-09-29T11:46:24.626989Z
End: 2025-10-07T04:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to “Yes” if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces that they have acquired additional Bitcoin between the dates in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last). Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on announcements made within the market's designated time frame regardless of when the actual purchases were made.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.

For reference, MicroStrategy’s reported BTC holdings can be tracked at: https://www.strategy.com/purchases

MSTR weeklies

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase September 30-October 6?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy announces that they have acquired additional Bitcoin between February 4, 12:00 AM (inclusive) and  February 10, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces that they have acquired additional Bitcoin between February 11, 12:00 AM (inclusive) and February 17, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.

Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces between March 18, 12:00 AM (inclusive) and March 24, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive) that they have acquired additional Bitcoin. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.

Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?

On January 27, MicroStrategy announced that, during the period between January 21, 2025 and January 26, 2025, the Company acquired approximately 10,107 bitcoins (see: https://assets.contentstack.io/v3/assets/bltb564490bc5201f31/blt20c45041f41de66b/679770467bb3224979f6d936/form-8-k_01-27-2025.pdf).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy announces that they have acquired additional Bitcoin by February 3, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.

Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces between March 11, 12:00 AM (inclusive) and March 17, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive) that they have acquired additional Bitcoin. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.

Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb Mar 11-17?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces between February 25, 12:00 AM (inclusive) and March 3, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive) that they have acquired additional Bitcoin. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.


Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 25-Mar 3?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces that they have acquired additional Bitcoin between February 18, 12:00 AM (inclusive) and February 24, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.


Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces between March 4, 12:00 AM (inclusive) and March 10, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive) that they have acquired additional Bitcoin. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.


Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb Mar 4-10?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces between April 1, 12:00 AM (inclusive) and April 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive) that they have acquired additional Bitcoin. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces between April 8, 11:00 AM (inclusive) and April 14, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive) that they have acquired additional Bitcoin. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 8-14?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces between April 15, 12:00 AM (inclusive) and April 21, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive) that they have acquired additional Bitcoin. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces between April 22, 12:00 AM (inclusive) and April 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive) that they have acquired additional Bitcoin. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 22-28?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces between April 29, 12:00 AM (inclusive) and May 5, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive) that they have acquired additional Bitcoin. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces between May 6, 12:00 AM (inclusive) and May 12, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive) that they have acquired additional Bitcoin. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 6-12?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces between May 13, 12:00 AM (inclusive) and May 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive) that they have acquired additional Bitcoin. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 13-19?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces between May 20, 12:00 AM (inclusive) and May 26, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive) that they have acquired additional Bitcoin. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces between May 27, 12:00 AM (inclusive) and June 2, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive) that they have acquired additional Bitcoin. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces between June 3, 12:00 AM (inclusive) and June 9, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive) that they have acquired additional Bitcoin. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces between June 24, 12:00 AM (inclusive) and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive) that they have acquired additional Bitcoin. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 24-30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces between July 1, 12:00 AM (inclusive) and July 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive) that they have acquired additional Bitcoin. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces between June 10, 12:00 AM (inclusive) and June 16, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive) that they have acquired additional Bitcoin. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 10-16?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces between July 8 12:00 AM (inclusive) and July 14, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive) that they have acquired additional Bitcoin. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 8-14?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces between June 17, 12:00 AM (inclusive) and June 23, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive) that they have acquired additional Bitcoin. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces that they have acquired additional Bitcoin between the dates in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last). Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 15-21?

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 29-August 4?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces that they have acquired additional Bitcoin between the dates in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last). Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.

For reference, MicroStrategy’s reported BTC holdings can be tracked at: https://www.strategy.com/purchases

archWill MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin August 25-September 1?

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin August 26-September 1?

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin September 2-8?

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase September 23-29?

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin September 9-15?

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin August 12-18?

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin August 19-25?

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase September 16-22?

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase October 7-13?

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase October 14-20?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces that they have acquired additional Bitcoin between the dates in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last date). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on announcements made within the market's designated time frame regardless of when the actual purchases were made.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.

For reference, MicroStrategy's reported BTC holdings can be tracked at: https://www.strategy.com/purchases

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase October 28-November 3?

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase October 21-27?

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase November 4-10?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy sells any of its Bitcoin by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from MSTR and on-chain data, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy incorporated is forced to liquidate any of its Bitcoin holdings/positions by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, due to lender action or other external financial obligations beyond its control. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Forced liquidation is defined as the sale of Bitcoin by MicroStrategy or a lender as a direct result of a contractual obligation, such as a loan default, an unfulfilled margin call, or legal/regulatory enforcement requiring the company to sell. Voluntary Bitcoin sales, proactive debt repayments, or discretionary asset reallocation will not count. 

The primary resolution sources will be SEC filings, official MicroStrategy statements, and a consensus of credible financial reporting. 


Will MicroStrategy be forced to liquidate Bitcoin holdings in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy incorporated is margin called on any of its Bitcoin-backed loans by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, resulting in either a forced liquidation of Bitcoin by a lender or MicroStrategy posting additional collateral or making a loan repayment in response to the margin call. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A margin call is defined as a lender formally requiring MicroStrategy to either provide additional collateral or repay part of a loan due to the value of Bitcoin collateral falling below the required loan-to-value (LTV) ratio. Voluntary Bitcoin sales by MicroStrategy that are not explicitly in response to a margin call will not count. 

The primary resolution sources will be SEC filings, official MicroStrategy statements, and a consensus of credible financial reporting.

Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) announces that it has acquired more Bitcoin between July 24 11:00 ET, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from TMTG, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Will Trump Media buy more Bitcoin in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs.

The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents MicroStrategy.

A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of any sovereign UN member state announces between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that they bought Bitcoin for the first time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This announcement can pertain to a first purchase of Bitcoin outside of the timeframe of this market (e.g. if a country announces it made its first purchase of Bitcoin prior to this market's timeframe, but the announcement is made within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes").

A qualifying purchase requires a relevant country take direct custody over the Bitcoin they purchase. Buying into investment vehicles, ETFs, etc., which do not constitute a direct purchase of Bitcoin, will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be official announcements from the governments of any purchasing UN member state, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will a new country buy Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government sells any of its Bitcoin by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government and on-chain data, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will the US Government sell Bitcoin by December 31?

On March 11, Senator Lummis reintroduced the BITCOIN Act, which aims to purchase 1,000,000 Bitcoin. You can read more about that here: https://x.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1899447562790211883

This market will resolve to "Yes" if this act passes the Senate by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Senate passes bill to purchase 1m Bitcoin in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction before December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto

If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.




Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) buys any amount of $TRUMP (https://solscan.io/token/6p6xgHyF7AeE6TZkSmFsko444wqoP15icUSqi2jfGiPN), either directly or through a subsidiary, between July 21, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be announcements through official information from TMTG, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump Media buy $TRUMP in 2025?

If a Bitcoin hard fork occurs between July 7 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Bitcoin hard fork before 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if ByteDance announces their intention to sell TikTok by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

A public announcement of the intention to sell TikTok will qualify even if a sale has not been finalized. This includes any formal declaration made by ByteDance or its authorized representatives regarding their plans to sell or transfer ownership of TikTok.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from ByteDance. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

TikTok sale announced in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that Mistral AI will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Apple (Apple inc.) by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by Mistral AI will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple or Mistral AI, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Apple acquire Mistral by November 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes"  if it is officially announced that the listed individual, either personally or through an entity, enters into an agreement with TikTok to acquire its US operations by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An official announcement will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

The entity entering into the agreement does not need to be controlled by the listed individual; their involvement as a partial owner, investor, or similar role will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed individual and/or TikTok, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok?

On November 18, Texas Representative Giovanni Capriglione introduced H.B. 1598, a bill to establish a strategic bitcoin reserve within the state treasury (see: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/12/texas-house-introduces-bill-to-establish-a-strategic-bitcoin-reserve.html).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if H.B. 1598, the Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act, is signed into law by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source will be official information from the Texas Legislature or a consensus of credible reporting. 

Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act (H.B. 1598) signed in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) buys any amount of Solana, either directly or through a subsidiary, between July 21, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be announcements through official information from TMTG, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump Media buy Solana in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between April 30, 2025 and December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET, the market capitalization of Bitcoin (BTC) exceeds the market capitalization of the largest publicly traded company in the world. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." 

Market cap values for both BTC and companies will be taken directly from Google Finance. If Google Finance is unavailable, a consensus of credible financial data providers will be used.

Bitcoin more valuable than any company in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if definitive evidence confirming that Donald Trump is Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, is made public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Qualifying evidence includes, but is not limited to verified documentation, blockchain evidence, or other definitive evidence.

Unverified or anonymous claims, speculation, memes, jokes, sarcasm, or unsubstantiated reports will not qualify.

Unsubstantiated claims made by Trump will not alone qualify. 

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from Donald Trump.

Trump confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire OpenAI (or the nonprofit that controls OpenAI) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Mergers where OpenAI is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution.

An announced agreement between OpenAI and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Sam Altman and/or OpenAI however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

OpenAI acquired in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that xAI will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Tesla (Tesla inc.) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by xAI will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or xAI, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Tesla acquire xAI in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) buys any amount of Ethereum, either directly or through a subsidiary, between July 21, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be announcements through official information from TMTG, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump Media buy Ethereum in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that the Chrome web browser will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with OpenAI by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by Google/Alphabet will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition or merger actually occurs.

Partnerships, integrations, licensing deals, or other forms of collaboration between Chrome and OpenAI that do not constitute an acquisition or merger will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google/Alphabet, or OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will OpenAI acquire Chrome by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between November 3, 2025, 12:00 AM ET and November 9, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "Liberation Day" this week? (November 3 - 9)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. announces that they are occupying/using Bagram air base in Afghanistan for military or intelligence operations by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official announcements form the U.S government and military.

US announces return to Bagram base in Afghanistan by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that Perplexity AI will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Apple (Apple inc.) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by Perplexity AI will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple or Perplexity, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Apple acquire Perplexity in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abstract officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Abstract, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Abstract launch a token in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between November 10, 2025, 12:00 AM ET and November 16, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say “MAGA" or "Make America Great Again” this week? (November 10 - 16)

On January 28, Visa announced a partnership with X for a 2025 launch of 'X Money'. The service will allow users to, among other things, secure funding for their X Wallets, perform P2P payments, and transfer funds to their bank accounts. You can read more about that here: https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/x-partners-with-visa-to-launch-x-money-later-this-year/3464796

This market will resolve to "Yes" if X launches 'X Money' between January 27 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If 'X Money' is made publicly available for a majority of US users exclusively through purchase or X premium it will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". Limited betas will not qualify.

The feature does not have to be titled 'X Money' for this market to resolve to "Yes" so long as the feature provides one or more of the named services.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from X, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

X Money launch in 2025?

Two major proposals to upgrade the Bitcoin network are currently under consideration, OP_CTV (BIP 119) and OP_CAT (BIP 347).

This market will resolve according to whichever of the following options happens by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

If one upgrade is activated, it will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" until the resolution time has passed, and the other upgrade has not been activated. This market may not be resolved to "Neither" until the resolution time has passed and neither upgrade has been activated.

If both upgrades are activated at any point, this market may resolve to "Both" immediately.

This market resolves based on whether Bitcoin activates OP_CTV, OP_CAT, or both by 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2025.

“Activated” means the opcode is live and enforced on mainnet as part of Bitcoin’s consensus rules.

Only the chain recognized as Bitcoin by the economic majority counts, based on hashpower, BTC ticker retention, and adoption by major exchanges, wallets, and infrastructure.

Soft forks count toward this market's resolution. Hard forks only count if the fork becomes the dominant BTC chain (e.g., not a minority fork like Bitcoin Cash).

Testnet, signet, or forks with minority support do not count.

The resolution source for this market will be public sources such as Bitcoin Core, dev mailing lists, and major ecosystem infrastructure.

Will neither OP_CTV nor OP_CAT be activated in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the bitcoin holdings officially owned by the Republic of the El Salvador government reaches or surpasses a value of $1b at any point by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolutions source for this market will be the ARKHAM INTEL tracker (see: https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/el-salvador). Any temporary glitches or errors in the tracker will not be considered. If the tracker becomes permanently unavailable another credible source may be used. Official announcements form the government of El Salvador confirming their bitcoin holdings have reached or surpassed $1b in value will also qualify. 


Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31? 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Base officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Base, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Base launch a token in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a bill into law or performs any executive action changing US tax law to establish a de minimis tax exemption on cryptocurrency transactions by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Such a bill must apply to US taxpaying persons in general; if a law applies only to specific companies or institutions, it will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market.

If the tax exemption only applies for specific types or classes of crypto assets (e.g., only Bitcoin or Ethereum, only American issued cryptocurrencies, or only NFTs), it will still count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market.

If the bill is signed into law, or executive action is instituted before the resolution date, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of when it takes effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase September 30-October 6?

Market Context

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase September 30-October 6?

Rules

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase September 30-October 6?

Market Context

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase September 30-October 6?

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