**No** holds an 86.5% implied probability because Jake Paul has not filed candidacy paperwork, launched a campaign, or made a formal announcement for any office in 2026 despite earlier signals of interest. President Trump publicly endorsed a future run and predicted one “in the not-too-distant future” during a March 2026 Kentucky rally, and Paul affirmed in a follow-up interview that he sees politics as a path to impact. More recently, Paul and his brother met with Vice President JD Vance at the Pentagon in September and reiterated long-term political ambitions, telling an October podcast he envisions entering politics by age 40. However, Paul remains focused on a boxing comeback after a December 2025 jaw injury, with medical clearance secured in October and a targeted return in early 2027. No scheduled events or procedural steps point to a 2026 announcement, aligning with trader consensus that any candidacy remains years away.