Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and Twitter could not.

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Middle East

$59,594 Bet

Expires Nov 30, 2023

Will Hamas release 20+ hostages in a single day by Nov 30?

Will Hamas release 20+ hostages in a single day by Nov 30?

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas releases 20 or more hostages in any 24-hour period between November 15 and November 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a negotiated release of hostages will trigger a "Yes" resolution. This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" upon the release of 20+ hostages in a 24 hour period.

If Hamas releases hostages on the last day within this market's range, the 24 hour period will commence starting with the release of the first hostage (e.g. if a first hostage is released on Nov 30, 2 PM ET, the 24h period will be from Nov 30, 2 PM ET to Dec 1, 2 PM ET).

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Hamas, Israel, the United States, and/or the relevant nations to whom any potential released hostages belong, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


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Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes


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Outcome: Yes