Recent geopolitical tensions, including disruptions from the Iran conflict, have driven crude oil prices higher and contributed to a sharp spike in U.S. retail gasoline prices, with national averages reaching $4.30 per gallon in early May 2026 according to AAA data. This follows elevated levels since February amid supply concerns and refinery maintenance typical of the spring season. The EIA’s May 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook projects average retail gasoline prices near $3.64 per gallon for the month, reflecting resilient U.S. production but tempered by global inventory draws and seasonal demand. With resolution imminent at month-end, traders are monitoring any further oil market volatility or weather-driven shifts that could influence the final weekly average.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$143,632 Vol.
May 31, 2026
↑ $5.00
14%
↑ $4.70
45%
↑ $4.60
72%
↓ $4.25
9%
↓ $4.20
6%
↓ $4.10
6%
↓ $4.00
3%
↓ $3.75
2%
↓ $3.50
1%
$143,632 Vol.
↑ $5.00
$21,866 Vol.
14%
↑ $4.70
$11,676 Vol.
45%
↑ $4.60
$12,062 Vol.
72%
↓ $4.25
$2,620 Vol.
9%
↓ $4.20
$1,888 Vol.
6%
↓ $4.10
$1,108 Vol.
6%
↓ $4.00
$1,136 Vol.
3%
↓ $3.75
$1,849 Vol.
2%
↓ $3.50
$8,349 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".Recent geopolitical tensions, including disruptions from the Iran conflict, have driven crude oil prices higher and contributed to a sharp spike in U.S. retail gasoline prices, with national averages reaching $4.30 per gallon in early May 2026 according to AAA data. This follows elevated levels since February amid supply concerns and refinery maintenance typical of the spring season. The EIA’s May 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook projects average retail gasoline prices near $3.64 per gallon for the month, reflecting resilient U.S. production but tempered by global inventory draws and seasonal demand. With resolution imminent at month-end, traders are monitoring any further oil market volatility or weather-driven shifts that could influence the final weekly average.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Market Opened: Apr 30, 2026, 2:26 PM ET
Volume
$143,632End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 2:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".Recent geopolitical tensions, including disruptions from the Iran conflict, have driven crude oil prices higher and contributed to a sharp spike in U.S. retail gasoline prices, with national averages reaching $4.30 per gallon in early May 2026 according to AAA data. This follows elevated levels since February amid supply concerns and refinery maintenance typical of the spring season. The EIA’s May 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook projects average retail gasoline prices near $3.64 per gallon for the month, reflecting resilient U.S. production but tempered by global inventory draws and seasonal demand. With resolution imminent at month-end, traders are monitoring any further oil market volatility or weather-driven shifts that could influence the final weekly average.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).
The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Volume
$143,632End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 2:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent geopolitical tensions, including disruptions from the Iran conflict, have driven crude oil prices higher and contributed to a sharp spike in U.S. retail gasoline prices, with national averages reaching $4.30 per gallon in early May 2026 according to AAA data. This follows elevated levels since February amid supply concerns and refinery maintenance typical of the spring season. The EIA’s May 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook projects average retail gasoline prices near $3.64 per gallon for the month, reflecting resilient U.S. production but tempered by global inventory draws and seasonal demand. With resolution imminent at month-end, traders are monitoring any further oil market volatility or weather-driven shifts that could influence the final weekly average.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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