The May 2026 jury verdict dismissing Elon Musk’s lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI on statute-of-limitations grounds has anchored the 95% market-implied probability that Musk will not prevail. After a three-week trial featuring testimony on OpenAI’s shift from nonprofit mission to for-profit large language model development, the Oakland jury unanimously found Musk had delayed filing too long, prompting swift judicial dismissal of all claims including breach of contract and unjust enrichment. Traders view an appeal as unlikely to reverse the outcome given the clear procedural bar and lack of new evidence on AI safety commitments or executive conduct. A narrow reversal on appeal or settlement remains possible but would require overcoming established legal precedent in a case already resolved on timing rather than merits.