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Tech·Movies

Will Disney+ Reach 150 million total users by September?

icon for Will Disney+ Reach 150 million total users by September?
Tech·Movies

Will Disney+ Reach 150 million total users by September?

9% chance
Polymarket
NEW
9% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Disney+ officially reports 150 million or more paid subscribers in its fiscal year 2026 annual report (10-K). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For the purposes of this market, the 150 million figure must be explicitly reflected in the total Disney+ paid subscriber count (combining both domestic and international subscribers) in Disney's official FY2026 10-K filing with the SEC, covering the fiscal year ending in September 2026. Analyst estimates, third-party projections, or figures from any other reporting period will not count. If Disney's FY2026 10-K has not been officially filed with the SEC by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if the relevant figure is not included in the report, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be Disney's FY2026 10-K filing on the SEC's EDGAR database (https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001744489&type=10-K).Recent subscriber data showing Disney+ at roughly 132-135 million users through late 2025, combined with Disney's decision to stop disclosing individual streaming subscriber counts starting in fiscal 2026, has anchored trader consensus around the 78% probability for missing 150 million by September. Maturing streaming markets, slower quarterly additions after earlier rapid expansion, and competition from established platforms have limited user acquisition momentum, with no major content-driven surges or regulatory tailwinds evident in the past several months. Analysts note historical growth patterns suggest the required acceleration would demand exceptional performance unlikely before the deadline.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Disney+ officially reports 150 million or more paid subscribers in its fiscal year 2026 annual report (10-K). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For the purposes of this market, the 150 million figure must be explicitly reflected in the total Disney+ paid subscriber count (combining both domestic and international subscribers) in Disney's official FY2026 10-K filing with the SEC, covering the fiscal year ending in September 2026. Analyst estimates, third-party projections, or figures from any other reporting period will not count.

If Disney's FY2026 10-K has not been officially filed with the SEC by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if the relevant figure is not included in the report, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source for this market will be Disney's FY2026 10-K filing on the SEC's EDGAR database (https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001744489&type=10-K).
Volume
$33
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 12, 2026, 11:18 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Disney+ officially reports 150 million or more paid subscribers in its fiscal year 2026 annual report (10-K). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For the purposes of this market, the 150 million figure must be explicitly reflected in the total Disney+ paid subscriber count (combining both domestic and international subscribers) in Disney's official FY2026 10-K filing with the SEC, covering the fiscal year ending in September 2026. Analyst estimates, third-party projections, or figures from any other reporting period will not count. If Disney's FY2026 10-K has not been officially filed with the SEC by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if the relevant figure is not included in the report, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be Disney's FY2026 10-K filing on the SEC's EDGAR database (https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001744489&type=10-K).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Disney+ officially reports 150 million or more paid subscribers in its fiscal year 2026 annual report (10-K). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For the purposes of this market, the 150 million figure must be explicitly reflected in the total Disney+ paid subscriber count (combining both domestic and international subscribers) in Disney's official FY2026 10-K filing with the SEC, covering the fiscal year ending in September 2026. Analyst estimates, third-party projections, or figures from any other reporting period will not count. If Disney's FY2026 10-K has not been officially filed with the SEC by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if the relevant figure is not included in the report, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be Disney's FY2026 10-K filing on the SEC's EDGAR database (https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001744489&type=10-K).Recent subscriber data showing Disney+ at roughly 132-135 million users through late 2025, combined with Disney's decision to stop disclosing individual streaming subscriber counts starting in fiscal 2026, has anchored trader consensus around the 78% probability for missing 150 million by September. Maturing streaming markets, slower quarterly additions after earlier rapid expansion, and competition from established platforms have limited user acquisition momentum, with no major content-driven surges or regulatory tailwinds evident in the past several months. Analysts note historical growth patterns suggest the required acceleration would demand exceptional performance unlikely before the deadline.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Disney+ officially reports 150 million or more paid subscribers in its fiscal year 2026 annual report (10-K). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For the purposes of this market, the 150 million figure must be explicitly reflected in the total Disney+ paid subscriber count (combining both domestic and international subscribers) in Disney's official FY2026 10-K filing with the SEC, covering the fiscal year ending in September 2026. Analyst estimates, third-party projections, or figures from any other reporting period will not count.

If Disney's FY2026 10-K has not been officially filed with the SEC by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if the relevant figure is not included in the report, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source for this market will be Disney's FY2026 10-K filing on the SEC's EDGAR database (https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001744489&type=10-K).
Volume
$33
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 12, 2026, 11:18 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Disney+ officially reports 150 million or more paid subscribers in its fiscal year 2026 annual report (10-K). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For the purposes of this market, the 150 million figure must be explicitly reflected in the total Disney+ paid subscriber count (combining both domestic and international subscribers) in Disney's official FY2026 10-K filing with the SEC, covering the fiscal year ending in September 2026. Analyst estimates, third-party projections, or figures from any other reporting period will not count. If Disney's FY2026 10-K has not been officially filed with the SEC by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if the relevant figure is not included in the report, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be Disney's FY2026 10-K filing on the SEC's EDGAR database (https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001744489&type=10-K).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Disney+ Reach 150 million total users by September?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 9% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 9¢, the market collectively assigns a 9% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will Disney+ Reach 150 million total users by September?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jun 12, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will Disney+ Reach 150 million total users by September?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Disney+ Reach 150 million total users by September?" is 9% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 9% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Disney+ Reach 150 million total users by September?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.