Traders assign an 88.5% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2027, reflecting sustained gray-zone coercion rather than preparations for large-scale amphibious operations. Beijing has continued routine People’s Liberation Army aircraft incursions, naval patrols, and coast guard enforcement east of the island through September 2026, alongside live-fire drills in the strait, while dismissing Taiwanese Han Kuang exercises as provocative. Taipei has responded with immediate combat readiness drills, drone integration, and civil defense tests, drawing lessons from Ukraine without evidence of an imminent threat. U.S. assessments and high projected costs of kinetic action continue to support the view that Beijing prioritizes incremental pressure and diplomatic isolation over a near-term invasion.