U.S. intelligence's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, released mid-month, concluded that China lacks plans for a Taiwan invasion by 2027 and prioritizes unification through non-military coercion across the Taiwan Strait, driving trader consensus to price "No" at 91.3%. This assessment aligns with Beijing's absence of verifiable invasion preparations amid ongoing gray-zone tactics like military drills and information operations. Reinforcing de-escalation, Chinese President Xi Jinping hosted Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang chair Cheng Li-wun on April 10—the first such cross-strait talks in a decade—leading Beijing to resume direct flights and Taiwanese imports, signaling diplomatic engagement over escalation despite U.S. distractions from Middle East conflicts. Late-breaking military mobilizations or policy shifts could still alter odds before year-end.