Traders assign near-certainty to no Chinese blockade of Taiwan by June 30 because Beijing has shown no signs of the large-scale naval and air mobilization required, with PLA activity limited to routine patrols and lower ADIZ incursions than in prior periods. Gray-zone tactics such as China Coast Guard operations near outlying islands and diplomatic pressure continue, but these fall short of establishing an aerial or naval blockade. U.S. assessments have described near-term kinetic risks as low following earlier 2025 exercises, and the remaining two-week window precludes the coordination needed for such an operation. A sudden escalation or miscalculation remains possible before the deadline, though current reporting shows no indicators of an imminent shift.