Carlos Alcaraz’s confirmed entry as the defending champion and No. 2 seed, combined with his completed recovery from a right-wrist tenosynovitis that sidelined him since April, underpins the unanimous trader consensus. The Spaniard has already returned to competition via mixed doubles with Serena Williams at Flushing Meadows, completed intensive practice sessions to test wrist response, and received an official first-round singles draw against Roman Safiullin on Arthur Ashe Stadium. With the main draw underway and no reported setbacks in the final days before his scheduled match, market pricing reflects near-certainty he will compete. The only plausible remaining variables capable of altering the outcome involve an extremely late medical withdrawal or acute re-injury immediately before stepping on court.