Traders assign a 76.5% probability to “No” because an election margin of 0.01% or less remains statistically rare even among the most competitive 2026 midterm contests. Current polling averages and forecasting models show the tightest Senate and House races projected at margins of several points or low-single-digit percentages, with no statewide or federal contest approaching the threshold needed for such an outcome. Historical base rates confirm that certified results this close occur infrequently across federal and statewide races, and recent campaign developments have not produced the extraordinary turnout patterns or vote distributions that would elevate the risk. Resolution depends on official certified results from state authorities after November 3, leaving limited scope for last-minute shifts to alter the low implied probability.