Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and Twitter could not.

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Middle East

$17,662 Bet

Expires Nov 30, 2023

Will any major Iranian oil refinery be taken out by Nov 30?

Will any major Iranian oil refinery be taken out by Nov 30?

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if any listed major Iranian oil refinery is damaged to the point of inoperability for any length of time due to violent or military action by November 30, 2023 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The major Iranian oil refineries considered for this market are:

Abadan Refinery
Isfahan Refinery
Arak Refinery
Bandar Abbas Refinery
Tehran Refinery

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and/or Iran, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


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