The intensifying El Niño, now expected to reach historic strength through fall, is driving the 94.5% market-implied probability against a Category 4 U.S. landfall before 2027 by generating strong vertical wind shear that suppresses Atlantic tropical cyclone formation and rapid intensification. NOAA’s August update projects a below-normal 2026 season with just 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) total, consistent with the current record-quiet start—five short-lived tropical storms and zero hurricanes through mid-September, yielding minimal accumulated cyclone energy. Historical analogs show Cat 4 landfalls occur roughly once every few years on average but become far less likely in suppressed seasons. While late-October or November development remains possible if shear relaxes, official model consensus and current steering patterns make such an outcome unlikely before resolution at year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
6% chance
$343,171 Vol.
$343,171 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
6% chance
$343,171 Vol.
$343,171 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The intensifying El Niño, now expected to reach historic strength through fall, is driving the 94.5% market-implied probability against a Category 4 U.S. landfall before 2027 by generating strong vertical wind shear that suppresses Atlantic tropical cyclone formation and rapid intensification. NOAA’s August update projects a below-normal 2026 season with just 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) total, consistent with the current record-quiet start—five short-lived tropical storms and zero hurricanes through mid-September, yielding minimal accumulated cyclone energy. Historical analogs show Cat 4 landfalls occur roughly once every few years on average but become far less likely in suppressed seasons. While late-October or November development remains possible if shear relaxes, official model consensus and current steering patterns make such an outcome unlikely before resolution at year-end.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Market Opened: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$343,171End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The intensifying El Niño, now expected to reach historic strength through fall, is driving the 94.5% market-implied probability against a Category 4 U.S. landfall before 2027 by generating strong vertical wind shear that suppresses Atlantic tropical cyclone formation and rapid intensification. NOAA’s August update projects a below-normal 2026 season with just 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) total, consistent with the current record-quiet start—five short-lived tropical storms and zero hurricanes through mid-September, yielding minimal accumulated cyclone energy. Historical analogs show Cat 4 landfalls occur roughly once every few years on average but become far less likely in suppressed seasons. While late-October or November development remains possible if shear relaxes, official model consensus and current steering patterns make such an outcome unlikely before resolution at year-end.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$343,171End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The intensifying El Niño, now expected to reach historic strength through fall, is driving the 94.5% market-implied probability against a Category 4 U.S. landfall before 2027 by generating strong vertical wind shear that suppresses Atlantic tropical cyclone formation and rapid intensification. NOAA’s August update projects a below-normal 2026 season with just 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) total, consistent with the current record-quiet start—five short-lived tropical storms and zero hurricanes through mid-September, yielding minimal accumulated cyclone energy. Historical analogs show Cat 4 landfalls occur roughly once every few years on average but become far less likely in suppressed seasons. While late-October or November development remains possible if shear relaxes, official model consensus and current steering patterns make such an outcome unlikely before resolution at year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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