Anthropic's advanced IPO preparations, including its June 2026 confidential S-1 filing and targeted October listing window with a late-September prospectus and mid-October roadshow, drive the strong 94.6% market-implied probability that it will reach public markets ahead of OpenAI. The company is finalizing a major credit facility and advancing underwriter meetings amid rapid revenue growth in its large language models. OpenAI, which filed shortly after, has shifted internally toward a 2027 debut, with CFO Sarah Friar citing substantial cash burn and a preference for a higher valuation target. While this consensus reflects verified timelines and leadership statements, last-minute regulatory delays, shifting market conditions, or an accelerated OpenAI process could still alter the outcome before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Anthropic
95% chance
$357,858 Vol.
$357,858 Vol.
Dec 30, 2027
Anthropic
95% chance
$357,858 Vol.
$357,858 Vol.
Dec 30, 2027
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic's advanced IPO preparations, including its June 2026 confidential S-1 filing and targeted October listing window with a late-September prospectus and mid-October roadshow, drive the strong 94.6% market-implied probability that it will reach public markets ahead of OpenAI. The company is finalizing a major credit facility and advancing underwriter meetings amid rapid revenue growth in its large language models. OpenAI, which filed shortly after, has shifted internally toward a 2027 debut, with CFO Sarah Friar citing substantial cash burn and a preference for a higher valuation target. While this consensus reflects verified timelines and leadership statements, last-minute regulatory delays, shifting market conditions, or an accelerated OpenAI process could still alter the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
Volume
$357,858End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic's advanced IPO preparations, including its June 2026 confidential S-1 filing and targeted October listing window with a late-September prospectus and mid-October roadshow, drive the strong 94.6% market-implied probability that it will reach public markets ahead of OpenAI. The company is finalizing a major credit facility and advancing underwriter meetings amid rapid revenue growth in its large language models. OpenAI, which filed shortly after, has shifted internally toward a 2027 debut, with CFO Sarah Friar citing substantial cash burn and a preference for a higher valuation target. While this consensus reflects verified timelines and leadership statements, last-minute regulatory delays, shifting market conditions, or an accelerated OpenAI process could still alter the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$357,858End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic's advanced IPO preparations, including its June 2026 confidential S-1 filing and targeted October listing window with a late-September prospectus and mid-October roadshow, drive the strong 94.6% market-implied probability that it will reach public markets ahead of OpenAI. The company is finalizing a major credit facility and advancing underwriter meetings amid rapid revenue growth in its large language models. OpenAI, which filed shortly after, has shifted internally toward a 2027 debut, with CFO Sarah Friar citing substantial cash burn and a preference for a higher valuation target. While this consensus reflects verified timelines and leadership statements, last-minute regulatory delays, shifting market conditions, or an accelerated OpenAI process could still alter the outcome before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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