Recent polling in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ahead of the 20 September 2026 Landtag election consistently places the AfD at 36–38 percent, the SPD at 30–34 percent, and smaller parties such as the Left, CDU, and Greens near or above the 5 percent threshold. These figures project the AfD to roughly 28–33 seats in the 71-seat chamber, well short of the 36 needed for an absolute majority. The party’s support has remained stable for months without the surge required to approach 50 percent of seats under the state’s proportional system with overhang and leveling mandates. Other parties’ coalition stances have no bearing on this specific outcome, as even standalone seat totals fall far below a majority. Late shifts in turnout or unforeseen campaign developments remain the primary variables that could alter the current trader consensus.