Trump's private signals to donors favoring J.D. Vance as his 2028 successor have anchored trader consensus around the vice president at 45.5 percent for the first public endorsement, yet the market stays tight because the president has repeatedly described any choice as premature and floated a Vance-Rubio "dream team" without committing. Rubio's prominent cabinet role, including recent foreign-policy visibility, sustains his 22 percent pricing as the clearest alternative. The broad field of lower-probability options reflects Trump's pattern of testing loyalty through midterms performance, polling feedback, and alignment on priorities before issuing an unambiguous nod. Scheduled 2026 midterm results and any early primary-state positioning could widen gaps ahead of formal announcements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJ.D. Vance 46%
Marco Rubio 22%
Donald Trump Jr. 12.8%
Donald Trump 4.5%
$13,639 Vol.
$13,639 Vol.
Nov 6, 2028
J.D. Vance
46%
Marco Rubio
22%
Donald Trump Jr.
13%
Donald Trump
4%
Elon Musk
3%
Eric Trump
8%
Vivek Ramaswamy
2%
Ted Cruz
2%
Ivanka Trump
1%
Tucker Carlson
1%
Greg Abbott
1%
Ron DeSantis
1%
Glenn Youngkin
1%
Thomas Massie
1%
Tulsi Gabbard
1%
Byron Donalds
1%
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
1%
Brian Kemp
1%
Rand Paul
<1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
<1%
Marjorie Taylor Greene
<1%
J.D. Vance 46%
Marco Rubio 22%
Donald Trump Jr. 12.8%
Donald Trump 4.5%
$13,639 Vol.
$13,639 Vol.
Nov 6, 2028
J.D. Vance
$5,997 Vol.
46%
Marco Rubio
$1,705 Vol.
22%
Donald Trump Jr.
$331 Vol.
13%
Donald Trump
$1,258 Vol.
4%
Elon Musk
$254 Vol.
3%
Eric Trump
$240 Vol.
8%
Vivek Ramaswamy
$242 Vol.
2%
Ted Cruz
$231 Vol.
2%
Ivanka Trump
$260 Vol.
1%
Tucker Carlson
$277 Vol.
1%
Greg Abbott
$235 Vol.
1%
Ron DeSantis
$302 Vol.
1%
Glenn Youngkin
$230 Vol.
1%
Thomas Massie
$235 Vol.
1%
Tulsi Gabbard
$242 Vol.
1%
Byron Donalds
$235 Vol.
1%
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
$245 Vol.
1%
Brian Kemp
$240 Vol.
1%
Rand Paul
$321 Vol.
<1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$251 Vol.
<1%
Marjorie Taylor Greene
$309 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the first individual that Donald Trump endorses for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential Election.
An endorsement is defined as a statement by Donald Trump that i) is made publicly (e.g., through a press release, an on-the-record interview, a speech, a campaign event, a post from a verified account on social media); ii) explicitly and unambiguously expresses unique support for an individual as a candidate for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential election; and iii) is characterized by a consensus of credible reporting as an official endorsement by Donald Trump of the individual for President in the 2028 United States presidential election.
An endorsement of an individual for the Republican Party’s nomination to the 2028 United States Presidential election will qualify. Endorsements of a candidate for the Democratic Party's nomination without also endorsing that candidate for President in the general election will not qualify.
The following will not be considered endorsements: positive or favorable comments about a candidate without a clear public statement of direct support; conditional statements giving support only if certain conditions are met; statements equally expressing support for multiple candidates (e.g., “I support Marco and J.D.”); statements expressing opposition to a candidate without endorsing any candidate; private or non-public statements; and statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not reflecting genuine support.
An endorsement of a ticket comprising a presidential candidate and a vice-presidential candidate constitutes a qualifying endorsement only of the individual endorsed for President. If the endorsement is of a ticket with undefined presidential and vice-presidential roles, or the roles on an endorsed ticket cannot be determined by the statement itself or a consensus of credible reporting, no qualifying endorsement will be deemed to have occurred.
If Donald Trump issues multiple concurrent statements meeting this standard, directed at different individuals, this will not constitute a qualifying endorsement and this market will remain open and resolve based on the first standalone qualifying endorsement issued. Endorsements will be considered to be issued concurrently only if they are issued in the same written statement (e.g., a public social media post), or in a singular public speaking event (e.g., a press conference, a speech).
Endorsements via social media count only from verified accounts controlled by Donald Trump. Likes, reposts, or shares alone do not constitute a qualifying endorsement.
If Donald Trump officially files his candidacy for the 2028 United States Presidential election before issuing a qualifying endorsement, this market will resolve to “Donald Trump.” Statements alone will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Donald Trump.”
Once a qualifying endorsement has occurred, subsequent retractions, rescissions, or endorsements of other individuals will not affect the determination of the first individual endorsed. If Donald Trump does not issue any qualifying endorsements, or file his own candidacy, by November 6, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.Trump's private signals to donors favoring J.D. Vance as his 2028 successor have anchored trader consensus around the vice president at 45.5 percent for the first public endorsement, yet the market stays tight because the president has repeatedly described any choice as premature and floated a Vance-Rubio "dream team" without committing. Rubio's prominent cabinet role, including recent foreign-policy visibility, sustains his 22 percent pricing as the clearest alternative. The broad field of lower-probability options reflects Trump's pattern of testing loyalty through midterms performance, polling feedback, and alignment on priorities before issuing an unambiguous nod. Scheduled 2026 midterm results and any early primary-state positioning could widen gaps ahead of formal announcements.
This market will resolve according to the first individual that Donald Trump endorses for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential Election.
An endorsement is defined as a statement by Donald Trump that i) is made publicly (e.g., through a press release, an on-the-record interview, a speech, a campaign event, a post from a verified account on social media); ii) explicitly and unambiguously expresses unique support for an individual as a candidate for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential election; and iii) is characterized by a consensus of credible reporting as an official endorsement by Donald Trump of the individual for President in the 2028 United States presidential election.
An endorsement of an individual for the Republican Party’s nomination to the 2028 United States Presidential election will qualify. Endorsements of a candidate for the Democratic Party's nomination without also endorsing that candidate for President in the general election will not qualify.
The following will not be considered endorsements: positive or favorable comments about a candidate without a clear public statement of direct support; conditional statements giving support only if certain conditions are met; statements equally expressing support for multiple candidates (e.g., “I support Marco and J.D.”); statements expressing opposition to a candidate without endorsing any candidate; private or non-public statements; and statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not reflecting genuine support.
An endorsement of a ticket comprising a presidential candidate and a vice-presidential candidate constitutes a qualifying endorsement only of the individual endorsed for President. If the endorsement is of a ticket with undefined presidential and vice-presidential roles, or the roles on an endorsed ticket cannot be determined by the statement itself or a consensus of credible reporting, no qualifying endorsement will be deemed to have occurred.
If Donald Trump issues multiple concurrent statements meeting this standard, directed at different individuals, this will not constitute a qualifying endorsement and this market will remain open and resolve based on the first standalone qualifying endorsement issued. Endorsements will be considered to be issued concurrently only if they are issued in the same written statement (e.g., a public social media post), or in a singular public speaking event (e.g., a press conference, a speech).
Endorsements via social media count only from verified accounts controlled by Donald Trump. Likes, reposts, or shares alone do not constitute a qualifying endorsement.
If Donald Trump officially files his candidacy for the 2028 United States Presidential election before issuing a qualifying endorsement, this market will resolve to “Donald Trump.” Statements alone will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Donald Trump.”
Once a qualifying endorsement has occurred, subsequent retractions, rescissions, or endorsements of other individuals will not affect the determination of the first individual endorsed. If Donald Trump does not issue any qualifying endorsements, or file his own candidacy, by November 6, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.
An endorsement is defined as a statement by Donald Trump that i) is made publicly (e.g., through a press release, an on-the-record interview, a speech, a campaign event, a post from a verified account on social media); ii) explicitly and unambiguously expresses unique support for an individual as a candidate for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential election; and iii) is characterized by a consensus of credible reporting as an official endorsement by Donald Trump of the individual for President in the 2028 United States presidential election.
An endorsement of an individual for the Republican Party’s nomination to the 2028 United States Presidential election will qualify. Endorsements of a candidate for the Democratic Party's nomination without also endorsing that candidate for President in the general election will not qualify.
The following will not be considered endorsements: positive or favorable comments about a candidate without a clear public statement of direct support; conditional statements giving support only if certain conditions are met; statements equally expressing support for multiple candidates (e.g., “I support Marco and J.D.”); statements expressing opposition to a candidate without endorsing any candidate; private or non-public statements; and statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not reflecting genuine support.
An endorsement of a ticket comprising a presidential candidate and a vice-presidential candidate constitutes a qualifying endorsement only of the individual endorsed for President. If the endorsement is of a ticket with undefined presidential and vice-presidential roles, or the roles on an endorsed ticket cannot be determined by the statement itself or a consensus of credible reporting, no qualifying endorsement will be deemed to have occurred.
If Donald Trump issues multiple concurrent statements meeting this standard, directed at different individuals, this will not constitute a qualifying endorsement and this market will remain open and resolve based on the first standalone qualifying endorsement issued. Endorsements will be considered to be issued concurrently only if they are issued in the same written statement (e.g., a public social media post), or in a singular public speaking event (e.g., a press conference, a speech).
Endorsements via social media count only from verified accounts controlled by Donald Trump. Likes, reposts, or shares alone do not constitute a qualifying endorsement.
If Donald Trump officially files his candidacy for the 2028 United States Presidential election before issuing a qualifying endorsement, this market will resolve to “Donald Trump.” Statements alone will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Donald Trump.”
Once a qualifying endorsement has occurred, subsequent retractions, rescissions, or endorsements of other individuals will not affect the determination of the first individual endorsed. If Donald Trump does not issue any qualifying endorsements, or file his own candidacy, by November 6, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 2:57 PM ET
Volume
$13,639End Date
Nov 6, 2028Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 2:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the first individual that Donald Trump endorses for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential Election.
An endorsement is defined as a statement by Donald Trump that i) is made publicly (e.g., through a press release, an on-the-record interview, a speech, a campaign event, a post from a verified account on social media); ii) explicitly and unambiguously expresses unique support for an individual as a candidate for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential election; and iii) is characterized by a consensus of credible reporting as an official endorsement by Donald Trump of the individual for President in the 2028 United States presidential election.
An endorsement of an individual for the Republican Party’s nomination to the 2028 United States Presidential election will qualify. Endorsements of a candidate for the Democratic Party's nomination without also endorsing that candidate for President in the general election will not qualify.
The following will not be considered endorsements: positive or favorable comments about a candidate without a clear public statement of direct support; conditional statements giving support only if certain conditions are met; statements equally expressing support for multiple candidates (e.g., “I support Marco and J.D.”); statements expressing opposition to a candidate without endorsing any candidate; private or non-public statements; and statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not reflecting genuine support.
An endorsement of a ticket comprising a presidential candidate and a vice-presidential candidate constitutes a qualifying endorsement only of the individual endorsed for President. If the endorsement is of a ticket with undefined presidential and vice-presidential roles, or the roles on an endorsed ticket cannot be determined by the statement itself or a consensus of credible reporting, no qualifying endorsement will be deemed to have occurred.
If Donald Trump issues multiple concurrent statements meeting this standard, directed at different individuals, this will not constitute a qualifying endorsement and this market will remain open and resolve based on the first standalone qualifying endorsement issued. Endorsements will be considered to be issued concurrently only if they are issued in the same written statement (e.g., a public social media post), or in a singular public speaking event (e.g., a press conference, a speech).
Endorsements via social media count only from verified accounts controlled by Donald Trump. Likes, reposts, or shares alone do not constitute a qualifying endorsement.
If Donald Trump officially files his candidacy for the 2028 United States Presidential election before issuing a qualifying endorsement, this market will resolve to “Donald Trump.” Statements alone will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Donald Trump.”
Once a qualifying endorsement has occurred, subsequent retractions, rescissions, or endorsements of other individuals will not affect the determination of the first individual endorsed. If Donald Trump does not issue any qualifying endorsements, or file his own candidacy, by November 6, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.Trump's private signals to donors favoring J.D. Vance as his 2028 successor have anchored trader consensus around the vice president at 45.5 percent for the first public endorsement, yet the market stays tight because the president has repeatedly described any choice as premature and floated a Vance-Rubio "dream team" without committing. Rubio's prominent cabinet role, including recent foreign-policy visibility, sustains his 22 percent pricing as the clearest alternative. The broad field of lower-probability options reflects Trump's pattern of testing loyalty through midterms performance, polling feedback, and alignment on priorities before issuing an unambiguous nod. Scheduled 2026 midterm results and any early primary-state positioning could widen gaps ahead of formal announcements.
This market will resolve according to the first individual that Donald Trump endorses for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential Election.
An endorsement is defined as a statement by Donald Trump that i) is made publicly (e.g., through a press release, an on-the-record interview, a speech, a campaign event, a post from a verified account on social media); ii) explicitly and unambiguously expresses unique support for an individual as a candidate for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential election; and iii) is characterized by a consensus of credible reporting as an official endorsement by Donald Trump of the individual for President in the 2028 United States presidential election.
An endorsement of an individual for the Republican Party’s nomination to the 2028 United States Presidential election will qualify. Endorsements of a candidate for the Democratic Party's nomination without also endorsing that candidate for President in the general election will not qualify.
The following will not be considered endorsements: positive or favorable comments about a candidate without a clear public statement of direct support; conditional statements giving support only if certain conditions are met; statements equally expressing support for multiple candidates (e.g., “I support Marco and J.D.”); statements expressing opposition to a candidate without endorsing any candidate; private or non-public statements; and statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not reflecting genuine support.
An endorsement of a ticket comprising a presidential candidate and a vice-presidential candidate constitutes a qualifying endorsement only of the individual endorsed for President. If the endorsement is of a ticket with undefined presidential and vice-presidential roles, or the roles on an endorsed ticket cannot be determined by the statement itself or a consensus of credible reporting, no qualifying endorsement will be deemed to have occurred.
If Donald Trump issues multiple concurrent statements meeting this standard, directed at different individuals, this will not constitute a qualifying endorsement and this market will remain open and resolve based on the first standalone qualifying endorsement issued. Endorsements will be considered to be issued concurrently only if they are issued in the same written statement (e.g., a public social media post), or in a singular public speaking event (e.g., a press conference, a speech).
Endorsements via social media count only from verified accounts controlled by Donald Trump. Likes, reposts, or shares alone do not constitute a qualifying endorsement.
If Donald Trump officially files his candidacy for the 2028 United States Presidential election before issuing a qualifying endorsement, this market will resolve to “Donald Trump.” Statements alone will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Donald Trump.”
Once a qualifying endorsement has occurred, subsequent retractions, rescissions, or endorsements of other individuals will not affect the determination of the first individual endorsed. If Donald Trump does not issue any qualifying endorsements, or file his own candidacy, by November 6, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.
An endorsement is defined as a statement by Donald Trump that i) is made publicly (e.g., through a press release, an on-the-record interview, a speech, a campaign event, a post from a verified account on social media); ii) explicitly and unambiguously expresses unique support for an individual as a candidate for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential election; and iii) is characterized by a consensus of credible reporting as an official endorsement by Donald Trump of the individual for President in the 2028 United States presidential election.
An endorsement of an individual for the Republican Party’s nomination to the 2028 United States Presidential election will qualify. Endorsements of a candidate for the Democratic Party's nomination without also endorsing that candidate for President in the general election will not qualify.
The following will not be considered endorsements: positive or favorable comments about a candidate without a clear public statement of direct support; conditional statements giving support only if certain conditions are met; statements equally expressing support for multiple candidates (e.g., “I support Marco and J.D.”); statements expressing opposition to a candidate without endorsing any candidate; private or non-public statements; and statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not reflecting genuine support.
An endorsement of a ticket comprising a presidential candidate and a vice-presidential candidate constitutes a qualifying endorsement only of the individual endorsed for President. If the endorsement is of a ticket with undefined presidential and vice-presidential roles, or the roles on an endorsed ticket cannot be determined by the statement itself or a consensus of credible reporting, no qualifying endorsement will be deemed to have occurred.
If Donald Trump issues multiple concurrent statements meeting this standard, directed at different individuals, this will not constitute a qualifying endorsement and this market will remain open and resolve based on the first standalone qualifying endorsement issued. Endorsements will be considered to be issued concurrently only if they are issued in the same written statement (e.g., a public social media post), or in a singular public speaking event (e.g., a press conference, a speech).
Endorsements via social media count only from verified accounts controlled by Donald Trump. Likes, reposts, or shares alone do not constitute a qualifying endorsement.
If Donald Trump officially files his candidacy for the 2028 United States Presidential election before issuing a qualifying endorsement, this market will resolve to “Donald Trump.” Statements alone will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Donald Trump.”
Once a qualifying endorsement has occurred, subsequent retractions, rescissions, or endorsements of other individuals will not affect the determination of the first individual endorsed. If Donald Trump does not issue any qualifying endorsements, or file his own candidacy, by November 6, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$13,639End Date
Nov 6, 2028Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 2:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trump's private signals to donors favoring J.D. Vance as his 2028 successor have anchored trader consensus around the vice president at 45.5 percent for the first public endorsement, yet the market stays tight because the president has repeatedly described any choice as premature and floated a Vance-Rubio "dream team" without committing. Rubio's prominent cabinet role, including recent foreign-policy visibility, sustains his 22 percent pricing as the clearest alternative. The broad field of lower-probability options reflects Trump's pattern of testing loyalty through midterms performance, polling feedback, and alignment on priorities before issuing an unambiguous nod. Scheduled 2026 midterm results and any early primary-state positioning could widen gaps ahead of formal announcements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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