Kyle Diamantas leads trader consensus at 43.5% following his May 2026 appointment as acting FDA commissioner after Marty Makary’s resignation, with reports highlighting his performance in the Human Foods Program role and White House ties that position him as a ready internal candidate. The 21.4% probability of no announcement by December 31 reflects the administration’s stated search process and historical patterns of extended vetting for Senate-confirmed positions under similar timelines. Brett Giroir, Sara Brenner, Grace Graham, and Stephen Hahn trail at 10.8%, 10.7%, 6.6%, and 4.5% respectively, as names drawn from prior Trump administration FDA leadership experience amid ongoing deliberations on policy priorities like drug approvals and food regulation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedKyle Diamantas 38%
No announcement by December 31 21.5%
Brett Giroir 15.0%
Sara Brenner 10.7%
$12,390 Vol.
$12,390 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Kyle Diamantas
44%
Stephen Hahn
5%
Brett Giroir
11%
Grace Graham
7%
Sara Brenner
11%
No announcement by December 31
21%
Kyle Diamantas 38%
No announcement by December 31 21.5%
Brett Giroir 15.0%
Sara Brenner 10.7%
$12,390 Vol.
$12,390 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Kyle Diamantas
$2,462 Vol.
44%
Stephen Hahn
$1,491 Vol.
5%
Brett Giroir
$2,410 Vol.
11%
Grace Graham
$3,416 Vol.
7%
Sara Brenner
$2,021 Vol.
11%
No announcement by December 31
$590 Vol.
21%
This market will resolve according to the first individual Donald Trump announces as his pick to be United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner.
An announcement from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to nominate a specific individual to be United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for FDA Commissioner.
Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
If Donald Trump does not announce his pick for the next United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No announcement by December 31”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump and the Trump Administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kyle Diamantas leads trader consensus at 43.5% following his May 2026 appointment as acting FDA commissioner after Marty Makary’s resignation, with reports highlighting his performance in the Human Foods Program role and White House ties that position him as a ready internal candidate. The 21.4% probability of no announcement by December 31 reflects the administration’s stated search process and historical patterns of extended vetting for Senate-confirmed positions under similar timelines. Brett Giroir, Sara Brenner, Grace Graham, and Stephen Hahn trail at 10.8%, 10.7%, 6.6%, and 4.5% respectively, as names drawn from prior Trump administration FDA leadership experience amid ongoing deliberations on policy priorities like drug approvals and food regulation.
This market will resolve according to the first individual Donald Trump announces as his pick to be United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner.
An announcement from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to nominate a specific individual to be United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for FDA Commissioner.
Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
If Donald Trump does not announce his pick for the next United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No announcement by December 31”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump and the Trump Administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to nominate a specific individual to be United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for FDA Commissioner.
Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
If Donald Trump does not announce his pick for the next United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No announcement by December 31”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump and the Trump Administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: May 12, 2026, 7:59 PM ET
Volume
$12,390End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 7:59 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the first individual Donald Trump announces as his pick to be United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner.
An announcement from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to nominate a specific individual to be United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for FDA Commissioner.
Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
If Donald Trump does not announce his pick for the next United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No announcement by December 31”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump and the Trump Administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kyle Diamantas leads trader consensus at 43.5% following his May 2026 appointment as acting FDA commissioner after Marty Makary’s resignation, with reports highlighting his performance in the Human Foods Program role and White House ties that position him as a ready internal candidate. The 21.4% probability of no announcement by December 31 reflects the administration’s stated search process and historical patterns of extended vetting for Senate-confirmed positions under similar timelines. Brett Giroir, Sara Brenner, Grace Graham, and Stephen Hahn trail at 10.8%, 10.7%, 6.6%, and 4.5% respectively, as names drawn from prior Trump administration FDA leadership experience amid ongoing deliberations on policy priorities like drug approvals and food regulation.
This market will resolve according to the first individual Donald Trump announces as his pick to be United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner.
An announcement from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to nominate a specific individual to be United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for FDA Commissioner.
Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
If Donald Trump does not announce his pick for the next United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No announcement by December 31”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump and the Trump Administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to nominate a specific individual to be United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for FDA Commissioner.
Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
If Donald Trump does not announce his pick for the next United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No announcement by December 31”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump and the Trump Administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$12,390End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 7:59 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Kyle Diamantas leads trader consensus at 43.5% following his May 2026 appointment as acting FDA commissioner after Marty Makary’s resignation, with reports highlighting his performance in the Human Foods Program role and White House ties that position him as a ready internal candidate. The 21.4% probability of no announcement by December 31 reflects the administration’s stated search process and historical patterns of extended vetting for Senate-confirmed positions under similar timelines. Brett Giroir, Sara Brenner, Grace Graham, and Stephen Hahn trail at 10.8%, 10.7%, 6.6%, and 4.5% respectively, as names drawn from prior Trump administration FDA leadership experience amid ongoing deliberations on policy priorities like drug approvals and food regulation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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