Lindsey Graham’s sudden death on July 11, 2026, after winning the June Republican primary, has created an open contest for South Carolina’s Senate seat. Governor Henry McMaster will appoint an interim holder until January 2027, while state law triggers a special primary on August 11 to select the GOP nominee for the November general election. With no dominant frontrunner and a broad list of potential candidates including sitting members of Congress and state officials, trader probabilities remain clustered near even odds. The outcome hinges on filing deadlines, McMaster’s appointment decision, and rapid consolidation of party support ahead of the compressed primary timeline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDarline Graham Nordone 100.0%
Nancy Mace <1%
Joe Wilson <1%
Mark Lynch <1%
$63,450 Vol.
$63,450 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Nancy Mace
No
Joe Wilson
No
Mark Lynch
No
Paul Dans
No
Ralph Norman
No
William Timmons
No
Russell Fry
No
Sheri Biggs
No
Pamela Evette
No
David Wilkins
No
Mick Mulvaney
No
Bob Peeler
No
None Before Midterm Election
No
André Bauer
No
Alan Wilson
No
Scott Bessent
No
Trey Gowdy
No
Darline Graham Nordone
Yes
Darline Graham Nordone 100.0%
Nancy Mace <1%
Joe Wilson <1%
Mark Lynch <1%
$63,450 Vol.
$63,450 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Nancy Mace
$3,205 Vol.
No
Joe Wilson
$1,883 Vol.
No
Mark Lynch
$624 Vol.
No
Paul Dans
$807 Vol.
No
Ralph Norman
$2,332 Vol.
No
William Timmons
$765 Vol.
No
Russell Fry
$3,279 Vol.
No
Sheri Biggs
$2,527 Vol.
No
Pamela Evette
$24,321 Vol.
No
David Wilkins
$2,948 Vol.
No
Mick Mulvaney
$807 Vol.
No
Bob Peeler
$828 Vol.
No
None Before Midterm Election
$5,220 Vol.
No
André Bauer
$817 Vol.
No
Alan Wilson
$757 Vol.
No
Scott Bessent
$1,075 Vol.
No
Trey Gowdy
$552 Vol.
No
Darline Graham Nordone
$10,700 Vol.
Yes
The Governor of South Carolina may appoint a replacement U.S. Senator for South Carolina to serve the rest of Lindsey Graham’s term.
This market will resolve according to the next person officially appointed by the Governor of South Carolina, or otherwise formally selected according to the jurisdiction's vacancy rules, to fill Lindsey Graham’s seat as United States Senator from South Carolina.
Interim, Acting, or other temporary Senators appointed or elected to the role will count.
If no replacement senator has been appointed or elected by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None Before Midterm Election.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of South Carolina and the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Lindsey Graham’s sudden death on July 11, 2026, after winning the June Republican primary, has created an open contest for South Carolina’s Senate seat. Governor Henry McMaster will appoint an interim holder until January 2027, while state law triggers a special primary on August 11 to select the GOP nominee for the November general election. With no dominant frontrunner and a broad list of potential candidates including sitting members of Congress and state officials, trader probabilities remain clustered near even odds. The outcome hinges on filing deadlines, McMaster’s appointment decision, and rapid consolidation of party support ahead of the compressed primary timeline.
The Governor of South Carolina may appoint a replacement U.S. Senator for South Carolina to serve the rest of Lindsey Graham’s term.
This market will resolve according to the next person officially appointed by the Governor of South Carolina, or otherwise formally selected according to the jurisdiction's vacancy rules, to fill Lindsey Graham’s seat as United States Senator from South Carolina.
Interim, Acting, or other temporary Senators appointed or elected to the role will count.
If no replacement senator has been appointed or elected by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None Before Midterm Election.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of South Carolina and the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the next person officially appointed by the Governor of South Carolina, or otherwise formally selected according to the jurisdiction's vacancy rules, to fill Lindsey Graham’s seat as United States Senator from South Carolina.
Interim, Acting, or other temporary Senators appointed or elected to the role will count.
If no replacement senator has been appointed or elected by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None Before Midterm Election.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of South Carolina and the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 12, 2026, 11:17 AM ET
Volume
$63,450End Date
Nov 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 12, 2026, 11:17 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The Governor of South Carolina may appoint a replacement U.S. Senator for South Carolina to serve the rest of Lindsey Graham’s term.
This market will resolve according to the next person officially appointed by the Governor of South Carolina, or otherwise formally selected according to the jurisdiction's vacancy rules, to fill Lindsey Graham’s seat as United States Senator from South Carolina.
Interim, Acting, or other temporary Senators appointed or elected to the role will count.
If no replacement senator has been appointed or elected by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None Before Midterm Election.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of South Carolina and the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Lindsey Graham’s sudden death on July 11, 2026, after winning the June Republican primary, has created an open contest for South Carolina’s Senate seat. Governor Henry McMaster will appoint an interim holder until January 2027, while state law triggers a special primary on August 11 to select the GOP nominee for the November general election. With no dominant frontrunner and a broad list of potential candidates including sitting members of Congress and state officials, trader probabilities remain clustered near even odds. The outcome hinges on filing deadlines, McMaster’s appointment decision, and rapid consolidation of party support ahead of the compressed primary timeline.
The Governor of South Carolina may appoint a replacement U.S. Senator for South Carolina to serve the rest of Lindsey Graham’s term.
This market will resolve according to the next person officially appointed by the Governor of South Carolina, or otherwise formally selected according to the jurisdiction's vacancy rules, to fill Lindsey Graham’s seat as United States Senator from South Carolina.
Interim, Acting, or other temporary Senators appointed or elected to the role will count.
If no replacement senator has been appointed or elected by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None Before Midterm Election.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of South Carolina and the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the next person officially appointed by the Governor of South Carolina, or otherwise formally selected according to the jurisdiction's vacancy rules, to fill Lindsey Graham’s seat as United States Senator from South Carolina.
Interim, Acting, or other temporary Senators appointed or elected to the role will count.
If no replacement senator has been appointed or elected by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None Before Midterm Election.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of South Carolina and the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$63,450End Date
Nov 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 12, 2026, 11:17 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Lindsey Graham’s sudden death on July 11, 2026, after winning the June Republican primary, has created an open contest for South Carolina’s Senate seat. Governor Henry McMaster will appoint an interim holder until January 2027, while state law triggers a special primary on August 11 to select the GOP nominee for the November general election. With no dominant frontrunner and a broad list of potential candidates including sitting members of Congress and state officials, trader probabilities remain clustered near even odds. The outcome hinges on filing deadlines, McMaster’s appointment decision, and rapid consolidation of party support ahead of the compressed primary timeline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions