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Politics·Trump

Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

Market icon
Politics·Trump

Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

$934,784 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$934,784 Vol.

Polymarket

Lori Chavez-DeRemer

$3,632 Vol.

75%

Kash Patel

$191,539 Vol.

63%

Kristi Noem

$85,775 Vol.

63%

Tulsi Gabbard

$41,143 Vol.

53%

Howard Lutnick

$51,962 Vol.

50%

Karoline Leavitt

$14,854 Vol.

45%

Pete Hegseth

$34,130 Vol.

44%

Lee Zeldin

$25,657 Vol.

37%

Susie Wiles

$40,967 Vol.

36%

David Sacks

$6,452 Vol.

34%

John Ratcliffe

$0 Vol.

28%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$63,529 Vol.

28%

Stephen Miller

$810 Vol.

25%

Marco Rubio

$3,021 Vol.

17%

Scott Bessent

$646 Vol.

16%

Russell Vought

$134 Vol.

26%

Tom Homan

$40 Vol.

26%

Dan Scavino

$31 Vol.

33%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Recent high-profile departures from the Trump administration, including Attorney General Pam Bondi on April 2 and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem replaced by Markwayne Mullin in late March, have accelerated trader focus on cabinet turnover patterns reminiscent of the first term's elevated rates. Reports from early April indicate active White House discussions about further exits, naming FBI Director Kash Patel amid congressional scrutiny, Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, and Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll as potential departures. This reflects ongoing personnel realignments driven by policy clashes, confirmation challenges, and internal pressures, with traders pricing elevated probabilities for additional resignations or firings before 2027. Upcoming weeks may see more changes, per administration insiders, amid a 29% "A Team" turnover rate as of January.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$934,784
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:34 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Recent high-profile departures from the Trump administration, including Attorney General Pam Bondi on April 2 and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem replaced by Markwayne Mullin in late March, have accelerated trader focus on cabinet turnover patterns reminiscent of the first term's elevated rates. Reports from early April indicate active White House discussions about further exits, naming FBI Director Kash Patel amid congressional scrutiny, Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, and Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll as potential departures. This reflects ongoing personnel realignments driven by policy clashes, confirmation challenges, and internal pressures, with traders pricing elevated probabilities for additional resignations or firings before 2027. Upcoming weeks may see more changes, per administration insiders, amid a 29% "A Team" turnover rate as of January.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$934,784
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:34 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 20 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Pam Bondi" at 100%, followed by "Dan Bongino" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?" has generated $934.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?," browse the 20 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?" is "Pam Bondi" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Dan Bongino" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.