Amid the US-Israel air campaign against Iran since late February 2026, trader consensus on Polymarket assigns low implied probabilities—topping at 9% for any active U.S. House member physically entering Iranian territory by June 30—to high-profile visits by figures like Marco Rubio (8%), U.S. senators (7%), or VP JD Vance (6%). The collapse of direct US-Iran ceasefire talks in Islamabad on April 11-12, where Vance demanded verifiable nuclear program abandonment that Tehran rejected, has clouded a fragile two-week truce and prompted Israel's army chief to order resumption preparations, yet sustains focus on airstrikes over risky ground entries or diplomatic forays. A debated special forces rescue of a downed U.S. airman around April 5 did not trigger resolutions, underscoring definitional hurdles for terrestrial incursion. Escalation signals persist, but historical aversion to Iran invasion costs tempers odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$308,215 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Any U.S. House member
9%
Marco Rubio
8%
JD Vance
7%
Any U.S. Senator
7%
Pete Hegseth
4%
Jared Kushner
3%
Benjamin Netanyahu
2%
Donald Trump
2%
$308,215 Vol.
Any U.S. House member
$61,817 Vol.
9%
Marco Rubio
$16,136 Vol.
8%
JD Vance
$17,672 Vol.
7%
Any U.S. Senator
$24,421 Vol.
7%
Pete Hegseth
$80,094 Vol.
4%
Jared Kushner
$12,283 Vol.
3%
Benjamin Netanyahu
$35,970 Vol.
2%
Donald Trump
$59,823 Vol.
2%
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the US-Israel air campaign against Iran since late February 2026, trader consensus on Polymarket assigns low implied probabilities—topping at 9% for any active U.S. House member physically entering Iranian territory by June 30—to high-profile visits by figures like Marco Rubio (8%), U.S. senators (7%), or VP JD Vance (6%). The collapse of direct US-Iran ceasefire talks in Islamabad on April 11-12, where Vance demanded verifiable nuclear program abandonment that Tehran rejected, has clouded a fragile two-week truce and prompted Israel's army chief to order resumption preparations, yet sustains focus on airstrikes over risky ground entries or diplomatic forays. A debated special forces rescue of a downed U.S. airman around April 5 did not trigger resolutions, underscoring definitional hurdles for terrestrial incursion. Escalation signals persist, but historical aversion to Iran invasion costs tempers odds.
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
Volume
$308,215End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the US-Israel air campaign against Iran since late February 2026, trader consensus on Polymarket assigns low implied probabilities—topping at 9% for any active U.S. House member physically entering Iranian territory by June 30—to high-profile visits by figures like Marco Rubio (8%), U.S. senators (7%), or VP JD Vance (6%). The collapse of direct US-Iran ceasefire talks in Islamabad on April 11-12, where Vance demanded verifiable nuclear program abandonment that Tehran rejected, has clouded a fragile two-week truce and prompted Israel's army chief to order resumption preparations, yet sustains focus on airstrikes over risky ground entries or diplomatic forays. A debated special forces rescue of a downed U.S. airman around April 5 did not trigger resolutions, underscoring definitional hurdles for terrestrial incursion. Escalation signals persist, but historical aversion to Iran invasion costs tempers odds.
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$308,215End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the US-Israel air campaign against Iran since late February 2026, trader consensus on Polymarket assigns low implied probabilities—topping at 9% for any active U.S. House member physically entering Iranian territory by June 30—to high-profile visits by figures like Marco Rubio (8%), U.S. senators (7%), or VP JD Vance (6%). The collapse of direct US-Iran ceasefire talks in Islamabad on April 11-12, where Vance demanded verifiable nuclear program abandonment that Tehran rejected, has clouded a fragile two-week truce and prompted Israel's army chief to order resumption preparations, yet sustains focus on airstrikes over risky ground entries or diplomatic forays. A debated special forces rescue of a downed U.S. airman around April 5 did not trigger resolutions, underscoring definitional hurdles for terrestrial incursion. Escalation signals persist, but historical aversion to Iran invasion costs tempers odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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