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Sports·UFC

Who will be UFC Flyweight champion at the end of 2026?

icon for Who will be UFC Flyweight champion at the end of 2026?
Sports·UFC

Who will be UFC Flyweight champion at the end of 2026?

Alexandre Pantoja 49%

Joshua Van 38%

Tatsuro Taira 34.0%

Steve Erceg 1.1%

Polymarket

$14,625 Vol.

Alexandre Pantoja 49%

Joshua Van 38%

Tatsuro Taira 34.0%

Steve Erceg 1.1%

Polymarket

$14,625 Vol.

Alexandre Pantoja

$5,183 Vol.

37%

Joshua Van

$3,081 Vol.

54%

Tatsuro Taira

$1,183 Vol.

25%

Steve Erceg

$848 Vol.

1%

Brandon Moreno

$393 Vol.

<1%

Tim Elliott

$548 Vol.

<1%

Asu Almabayev

$533 Vol.

<1%

Amir Albazi

$507 Vol.

<1%

Brandon Royval

$442 Vol.

<1%

Manel Kape

$1,170 Vol.

34%

Kyoji Horiguchi

$736 Vol.

32%

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Flyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).Joshua Van holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 42.5% implied probability to remain UFC flyweight champion through 2026 following his gritty fifth-round TKO defense over Tatsuro Taira in an epic UFC 328 co-main event last weekend, marking his second title win after dethroning Alexandre Pantoja in December 2025. Yet the market stays tightly bunched with Horiguchi (36.8%), Pantoja (36.0%), and Manel Kape (34.9%) close behind, reflecting the division's depth amid recent rankings showing Pantoja at No. 2, Taira at No. 3, Kape at No. 4, and Horiguchi at No. 5 after his February upset of Amir Albazi. Traders eye the June 20 Kape-Horiguchi rematch as a likely title eliminator, with stylistic matchups—Van's knockout power versus grapplers' submissions and wrestlers' control—keeping paths open for upsets in a stacked 125-pound class.

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Flyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.

If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Volume
$14,625
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 5:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Flyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Flyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).Joshua Van holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 42.5% implied probability to remain UFC flyweight champion through 2026 following his gritty fifth-round TKO defense over Tatsuro Taira in an epic UFC 328 co-main event last weekend, marking his second title win after dethroning Alexandre Pantoja in December 2025. Yet the market stays tightly bunched with Horiguchi (36.8%), Pantoja (36.0%), and Manel Kape (34.9%) close behind, reflecting the division's depth amid recent rankings showing Pantoja at No. 2, Taira at No. 3, Kape at No. 4, and Horiguchi at No. 5 after his February upset of Amir Albazi. Traders eye the June 20 Kape-Horiguchi rematch as a likely title eliminator, with stylistic matchups—Van's knockout power versus grapplers' submissions and wrestlers' control—keeping paths open for upsets in a stacked 125-pound class.

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Flyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.

If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Volume
$14,625
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 5:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Flyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will be UFC Flyweight champion at the end of 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Joshua Van" at 55%, followed by "Alexandre Pantoja" at 37%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 55¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 55% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will be UFC Flyweight champion at the end of 2026?" has generated $14.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 2, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will be UFC Flyweight champion at the end of 2026?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will be UFC Flyweight champion at the end of 2026?" is "Joshua Van" at 55%, meaning the market assigns a 55% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alexandre Pantoja" at 37%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will be UFC Flyweight champion at the end of 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.