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Politics·Primaries

ME-02 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for ME-02 Democratic Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

ME-02 Democratic Primary Winner

Matthew Dunlap 100.0%

Jared Golden <1%

Joe Baldacci <1%

Paige Loud <1%

Polymarket

$29,450 Vol.

Matthew Dunlap 100.0%

Jared Golden <1%

Joe Baldacci <1%

Paige Loud <1%

Polymarket

$29,450 Vol.

Jared Golden

$3,388 Vol.

No

Joe Baldacci

$10,553 Vol.

No

Paige Loud

$2,543 Vol.

No

Matthew Dunlap

$6,868 Vol.

Yes

Jordan Wood

$6,098 Vol.

No

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Maine's 2nd Congressional District Democratic primary on June 9 featured a tight three-way contest among state Sen. Joe Baldacci, state Auditor Matthew Dunlap, and former congressional staffer Jordan Wood to succeed retiring Rep. Jared Golden, with social worker Paige Loud trailing and conceding. No candidate secured a first-round majority, sending the race to ranked-choice voting tabulation that will redistribute preferences among the top contenders. The narrow vote margins—roughly 2,000 separating the leaders—have sustained competitive implied probabilities in the market, as traders assess second- and third-choice alignments across the large, rural district. Upcoming final RCV results and any late endorsements or regional turnout patterns could shift support among the remaining candidates.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 9, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$29,450
End Date
Jun 9, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 3:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Maine's 2nd Congressional District Democratic primary on June 9 featured a tight three-way contest among state Sen. Joe Baldacci, state Auditor Matthew Dunlap, and former congressional staffer Jordan Wood to succeed retiring Rep. Jared Golden, with social worker Paige Loud trailing and conceding. No candidate secured a first-round majority, sending the race to ranked-choice voting tabulation that will redistribute preferences among the top contenders. The narrow vote margins—roughly 2,000 separating the leaders—have sustained competitive implied probabilities in the market, as traders assess second- and third-choice alignments across the large, rural district. Upcoming final RCV results and any late endorsements or regional turnout patterns could shift support among the remaining candidates.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 9, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$29,450
End Date
Jun 9, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 3:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

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Frequently Asked Questions

"ME-02 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Matthew Dunlap" at 100%, followed by "Jared Golden" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "ME-02 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $29.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "ME-02 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "ME-02 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Matthew Dunlap" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Jared Golden" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "ME-02 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.