The tightly bunched probabilities around 50% across dozens of cores and carries reflect the wide-open nature of the Esports World Cup 2026 Dota 2 field, which began group-stage play on July 7 under patch 7.41d. With 24 teams featuring stacked lineups such as Team Spirit, Team Falcons, Team Yandex, PARIVISION, and Xtreme Gaming, GPM outcomes hinge on variable factors including role assignments, farm efficiency in longer games, map movement, and drafting priorities that shift across the round-robin and subsequent survival/playoff stages. Early matches have not yet produced a clear statistical leader, and the single-elimination format plus potential upsets keep individual performances fluid through July 19. Trader consensus treats the race as highly contingent on in-event form rather than pre-tournament expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSatanic 99.8%
SumaiL 50%
not me 20%
bzm 20%
$1,010 Vol.
$1,010 Vol.
Yatoro
No
LarI
No
Collapse
No
not me
No
rue
No
Pure
No
bzm
No
33
No
Ari
No
Whitemon
No
Satanic
Yes
No[o]ne-
No
Noticed
No
9Class
No
Dukalis
No
Nightfall
No
Mikoto
No
Ws
No
Mira
No
kaori
No
Ame
No
NothingToSay
No
Xxs
No
fy
No
xNova
No
watson
No
CHIRA_JUNIOR
No
DM
No
Saksa
No
Malady
No
skiter
No
Malr1ne
No
ATF
No
Cr1t-
No
Sneyking
No
m1CKe
No
Nisha
No
Ace
No
Boxi
No
tOfu
No
Kiritych~
No
gpk~
No
MieRo
No
Save-
No
Kataomi`
No
Crystallis
No
MidOne
No
BOOM
No
yamich
No
panto
No
Wits
No
DarkMago
No
Frank
No
Scofield
No
Elmisho
No
Natsumi
No
Yopaj
No
Raven
No
TIMS
No
skem
No
Timado
No
Abed
No
SaberLight
No
Hellscream
No
Fly
No
Yuma
No
TaiLung
No
Wisper
No
Thiolicor
No
KJ
No
Darklord^
No
Copy
No
Malik
No
Ekki
No
aik
No
WoE
No
Ainkrad
No
bb3px
No
queezy
No
Htrd
No
TA2000
No
Nicky`Cool
No
alberkaaa
No
Immersion
No
Hduo
No
ssnovv1
No
Mirage`
No
Vazya
No
Zayac
No
RESPECT
No
423
No
Stojkov
No
laise
No
Fernans
No
Se
No
shiro
No
Xm
No
Bach
No
XinQ
No
y`
No
Jikroy
No
inYourdreaM
No
Fbz
No
dalul
No
Varizh
No
Ghost
No
RCY
No
Fayde
No
Bignum
No
Speeed
No
rubikon155
No
4nalog
No
Jabz
No
Lelis
No
Yamsun
No
SumaiL
No
lorenof
No
Davai
No
OmaR
No
GH
No
A
No
B
No
C
No
D
No
Other
No
Satanic 99.8%
SumaiL 50%
not me 20%
bzm 20%
$1,010 Vol.
$1,010 Vol.
Yatoro
No
LarI
No
Collapse
No
not me
No
rue
No
Pure
No
bzm
No
33
No
Ari
No
Whitemon
No
Satanic
Yes
No[o]ne-
No
Noticed
No
9Class
No
Dukalis
No
Nightfall
No
Mikoto
No
Ws
No
Mira
No
kaori
No
Ame
No
NothingToSay
No
Xxs
No
fy
No
xNova
No
watson
No
CHIRA_JUNIOR
No
DM
No
Saksa
No
Malady
No
skiter
No
Malr1ne
No
ATF
No
Cr1t-
No
Sneyking
No
m1CKe
No
Nisha
No
Ace
No
Boxi
No
tOfu
No
Kiritych~
No
gpk~
No
MieRo
No
Save-
No
Kataomi`
No
Crystallis
No
MidOne
No
BOOM
No
yamich
No
panto
No
Wits
No
DarkMago
No
Frank
No
Scofield
No
Elmisho
No
Natsumi
No
Yopaj
No
Raven
No
TIMS
No
skem
No
Timado
No
Abed
No
SaberLight
No
Hellscream
No
Fly
No
Yuma
No
TaiLung
No
Wisper
No
Thiolicor
No
KJ
No
Darklord^
No
Copy
No
Malik
No
Ekki
No
aik
No
WoE
No
Ainkrad
No
bb3px
No
queezy
No
Htrd
No
TA2000
No
Nicky`Cool
No
alberkaaa
No
Immersion
No
Hduo
No
ssnovv1
No
Mirage`
No
Vazya
No
Zayac
No
RESPECT
No
423
No
Stojkov
No
laise
No
Fernans
No
Se
No
shiro
No
Xm
No
Bach
No
XinQ
No
y`
No
Jikroy
No
inYourdreaM
No
Fbz
No
dalul
No
Varizh
No
Ghost
No
RCY
No
Fayde
No
Bignum
No
Speeed
No
rubikon155
No
4nalog
No
Jabz
No
Lelis
No
Yamsun
No
SumaiL
No
lorenof
No
Davai
No
OmaR
No
GH
No
A
No
B
No
C
No
D
No
Other
No
GPM is defined as a player's total gold earned divided by their total minutes played, aggregated across all of their qualifying games.
Only completed official games count (group stage, survival/gauntlet stage, and playoffs). To qualify, a player must have played a minimum of 5 games; players below this threshold are not eligible, regardless of their GPM.
If two or more eligible players are tied on GPM, the market resolves to the tied player with the higher total gold earned across the tournament; if still tied, the player whose team achieved the higher final tournament placement.
If a player not individually listed as an outcome finishes with the highest qualifying GPM, or if the tournament is cancelled, postponed past August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or not determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other."
The primary resolution source for this market will be Dotabuff (https://www.dotabuff.com). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 7, 2026, 4:49 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
GPM is defined as a player's total gold earned divided by their total minutes played, aggregated across all of their qualifying games.
Only completed official games count (group stage, survival/gauntlet stage, and playoffs). To qualify, a player must have played a minimum of 5 games; players below this threshold are not eligible, regardless of their GPM.
If two or more eligible players are tied on GPM, the market resolves to the tied player with the higher total gold earned across the tournament; if still tied, the player whose team achieved the higher final tournament placement.
If a player not individually listed as an outcome finishes with the highest qualifying GPM, or if the tournament is cancelled, postponed past August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or not determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other."
The primary resolution source for this market will be Dotabuff (https://www.dotabuff.com). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The tightly bunched probabilities around 50% across dozens of cores and carries reflect the wide-open nature of the Esports World Cup 2026 Dota 2 field, which began group-stage play on July 7 under patch 7.41d. With 24 teams featuring stacked lineups such as Team Spirit, Team Falcons, Team Yandex, PARIVISION, and Xtreme Gaming, GPM outcomes hinge on variable factors including role assignments, farm efficiency in longer games, map movement, and drafting priorities that shift across the round-robin and subsequent survival/playoff stages. Early matches have not yet produced a clear statistical leader, and the single-elimination format plus potential upsets keep individual performances fluid through July 19. Trader consensus treats the race as highly contingent on in-event form rather than pre-tournament expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions