Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million domestic opening in late July has locked in its status as 2026’s biggest debut, shifting trader focus squarely to the fight for second place. Avengers: Doomsday leads the chase for that slot with $50 million in presales already logged three months ahead of its December 18 release, supported by strong premium-format demand and historical Avengers crossover precedent, though it shares the date with Dune: Messiah and faces a crowded holiday corridor. Earlier 2026 releases such as Toy Story 5 and The Odyssey posted solid but distant openings around $160 million and $124 million, respectively, leaving limited room for late-year surprises to overtake them. Market-implied odds reflect this tight contest, with traders weighing Doomsday’s ensemble momentum and presale trajectory against the risk of holiday competition and format limitations. Upcoming chart updates and final tracking figures will likely clarify whether Doomsday cements the #2 position or if another release narrows the gap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhich movie has 2nd biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Which movie has 2nd biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 55%
Avengers: Doomsday 45%
Dune: Messiah <1%
Toy Story 5 <1%
$117,781 Vol.
$117,781 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
55%
Avengers: Doomsday
45%
Dune: Messiah
<1%
Toy Story 5
<1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
<1%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 55%
Avengers: Doomsday 45%
Dune: Messiah <1%
Toy Story 5 <1%
$117,781 Vol.
$117,781 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
$59,903 Vol.
55%
Avengers: Doomsday
$45,498 Vol.
45%
Dune: Messiah
$7,938 Vol.
<1%
Toy Story 5
$2,679 Vol.
<1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
$482 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the second-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million domestic opening in late July has locked in its status as 2026’s biggest debut, shifting trader focus squarely to the fight for second place. Avengers: Doomsday leads the chase for that slot with $50 million in presales already logged three months ahead of its December 18 release, supported by strong premium-format demand and historical Avengers crossover precedent, though it shares the date with Dune: Messiah and faces a crowded holiday corridor. Earlier 2026 releases such as Toy Story 5 and The Odyssey posted solid but distant openings around $160 million and $124 million, respectively, leaving limited room for late-year surprises to overtake them. Market-implied odds reflect this tight contest, with traders weighing Doomsday’s ensemble momentum and presale trajectory against the risk of holiday competition and format limitations. Upcoming chart updates and final tracking figures will likely clarify whether Doomsday cements the #2 position or if another release narrows the gap.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the second-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 11:25 AM ET
Volume
$117,781End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 11:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the second-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million domestic opening in late July has locked in its status as 2026’s biggest debut, shifting trader focus squarely to the fight for second place. Avengers: Doomsday leads the chase for that slot with $50 million in presales already logged three months ahead of its December 18 release, supported by strong premium-format demand and historical Avengers crossover precedent, though it shares the date with Dune: Messiah and faces a crowded holiday corridor. Earlier 2026 releases such as Toy Story 5 and The Odyssey posted solid but distant openings around $160 million and $124 million, respectively, leaving limited room for late-year surprises to overtake them. Market-implied odds reflect this tight contest, with traders weighing Doomsday’s ensemble momentum and presale trajectory against the risk of holiday competition and format limitations. Upcoming chart updates and final tracking figures will likely clarify whether Doomsday cements the #2 position or if another release narrows the gap.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the second-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$117,781End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 11:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million domestic opening in late July has locked in its status as 2026’s biggest debut, shifting trader focus squarely to the fight for second place. Avengers: Doomsday leads the chase for that slot with $50 million in presales already logged three months ahead of its December 18 release, supported by strong premium-format demand and historical Avengers crossover precedent, though it shares the date with Dune: Messiah and faces a crowded holiday corridor. Earlier 2026 releases such as Toy Story 5 and The Odyssey posted solid but distant openings around $160 million and $124 million, respectively, leaving limited room for late-year surprises to overtake them. Market-implied odds reflect this tight contest, with traders weighing Doomsday’s ensemble momentum and presale trajectory against the risk of holiday competition and format limitations. Upcoming chart updates and final tracking figures will likely clarify whether Doomsday cements the #2 position or if another release narrows the gap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions