Persistent security threats, including recent Iranian attacks on vessels, unresolved mine risks, and a bifurcated transit regime under Iranian and U.S. coordination, continue to constrain commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz well below pre-crisis levels of roughly 130 daily transits. As of early October 2026, AIS-visible traffic averages around 10% of normal amid elevated war-risk premiums and selective routing, supporting the market-implied 83.5% probability of no full normalization through year-end. Partial oil export rebounds via bypass pipelines and ship-to-ship transfers have occurred, yet refined-product flows and overall volumes remain depressed due to lingering operational and insurance constraints. Key near-term catalysts include any escalation in regional incidents or verifiable de-escalation milestones that could shift trader consensus on 2026 resolution.