Persistent geopolitical tensions and severely constrained shipping conditions since the February 2026 crisis continue to anchor the 81.5% market-implied probability on no return to normal Strait of Hormuz traffic in 2026. AIS-visible commercial transits average just 8.7 per day over the past week—roughly 10% of the pre-crisis 84.8 baseline—amid mines, dual Iranian-U.S. routes, 15-30x war-risk insurance premiums, and repeated vessel attacks that have kept shipowners sidelined. October 2026 data show ongoing restrictions with minimal volume recovery, while limited oil and LNG movements reflect selective rather than normalized flows. Trader consensus prices in sustained uncertainty around de-escalation timelines and insurance normalization as the dominant near-term driver.