Ongoing military tensions stemming from the February 2026 US-Israel strikes on Iran continue to drive severe restrictions on Strait of Hormuz traffic, with AIS-visible commercial transits averaging roughly 8-10 per day—about 10% of the pre-crisis baseline of 85 daily crossings. Recent October escalations, including multiple tanker attacks reported by UKMTO and IRGC claims of strikes on vessels bypassing permits, have reinforced high war-risk insurance premiums (often 15-30 times normal) and selective access under Iranian and US naval oversight. These factors sustain trader consensus around an 87.5% implied probability of no return to normal volumes through year-end, as persistent blockades, threat levels rated severe, and limited bypass options via pipelines or alternative routes show little near-term reversal. Upcoming data releases on oil flows may offer incremental signals but face structural barriers from the entrenched conflict.