Ongoing security incidents and restricted access continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz well below pre-2026 crisis baselines of roughly 85 vessels per day, with recent AIS data showing averages near 8-9 transits amid persistent tanker attacks and Iranian naval activity as of early October. This environment underpins the market-implied 81.5% probability on no return to normal traffic through year-end, reflecting trader consensus on sustained dual-route constraints, elevated war-risk premiums, and incomplete de-escalation. Limited volume recovery observed mid-year has stalled amid fresh strikes, while near-term monthly resolutions carry low single-digit odds consistent with the slow, uneven path to normalized flows.