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icon for Which countries will sign the US x Iran deal by June 30?

Which countries will sign the US x Iran deal by June 30?

icon for Which countries will sign the US x Iran deal by June 30?

Which countries will sign the US x Iran deal by June 30?

$217,986 Vol.

Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$217,986 Vol.

Polymarket

Israel

$27,469 Vol.

No

Oman

$18,306 Vol.

No

Syria

$7,476 Vol.

No

Saudi Arabia

$7,968 Vol.

No

Qatar

$39,202 Vol.

No

Pakistan

$32,285 Vol.

Yes

Lebanon

$13,037 Vol.

No

Egypt

$35,777 Vol.

No

Jordan

$22,885 Vol.

No

Kuwait

$3,693 Vol.

No

Turkey

$9,888 Vol.

No

On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19. This market will resolve to “Yes” if an authorized representative of the listed country signs the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026 by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement. The agreement must be signed by an authorized representative of the listed country, acting on behalf of the listed country, including by signing a copy of the agreement or another signature page that forms part of the agreement. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.A US-Iran memorandum of understanding was finalized and publicly announced in mid-June 2026 after months of indirect talks mediated primarily by Pakistan, with supporting roles played by Oman, Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey. The interim pact extends an existing ceasefire, commits to reopening the Strait of Hormuz, lifts the US naval blockade, and launches a 60-day negotiation window on Iran’s nuclear program and sanctions relief, with a final agreement potentially requiring UN Security Council endorsement. President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian have each signed copies, with a formal ceremony planned for around June 19. Regional actors such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, drawn into related hostilities, could participate or endorse elements tied to Lebanon and broader de-escalation, though core terms remain bilateral between Washington and Tehran. The June 30 market resolution window falls immediately after these scheduled steps, leaving limited time for additional signatories to be confirmed.

On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if an authorized representative of the listed country signs the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026 by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement.

The agreement must be signed by an authorized representative of the listed country, acting on behalf of the listed country, including by signing a copy of the agreement or another signature page that forms part of the agreement.

Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$217,986
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 16, 2026, 11:47 AM ET
On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19. This market will resolve to “Yes” if an authorized representative of the listed country signs the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026 by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement. The agreement must be signed by an authorized representative of the listed country, acting on behalf of the listed country, including by signing a copy of the agreement or another signature page that forms part of the agreement. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19. This market will resolve to “Yes” if an authorized representative of the listed country signs the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026 by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement. The agreement must be signed by an authorized representative of the listed country, acting on behalf of the listed country, including by signing a copy of the agreement or another signature page that forms part of the agreement. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.A US-Iran memorandum of understanding was finalized and publicly announced in mid-June 2026 after months of indirect talks mediated primarily by Pakistan, with supporting roles played by Oman, Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey. The interim pact extends an existing ceasefire, commits to reopening the Strait of Hormuz, lifts the US naval blockade, and launches a 60-day negotiation window on Iran’s nuclear program and sanctions relief, with a final agreement potentially requiring UN Security Council endorsement. President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian have each signed copies, with a formal ceremony planned for around June 19. Regional actors such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, drawn into related hostilities, could participate or endorse elements tied to Lebanon and broader de-escalation, though core terms remain bilateral between Washington and Tehran. The June 30 market resolution window falls immediately after these scheduled steps, leaving limited time for additional signatories to be confirmed.

On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if an authorized representative of the listed country signs the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026 by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement.

The agreement must be signed by an authorized representative of the listed country, acting on behalf of the listed country, including by signing a copy of the agreement or another signature page that forms part of the agreement.

Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$217,986
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 16, 2026, 11:47 AM ET
On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19. This market will resolve to “Yes” if an authorized representative of the listed country signs the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026 by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement. The agreement must be signed by an authorized representative of the listed country, acting on behalf of the listed country, including by signing a copy of the agreement or another signature page that forms part of the agreement. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which countries will sign the US x Iran deal by June 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Pakistan" at 100%, followed by "Israel" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which countries will sign the US x Iran deal by June 30?" has generated $218K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 16, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which countries will sign the US x Iran deal by June 30?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which countries will sign the US x Iran deal by June 30?" is "Pakistan" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Israel" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which countries will sign the US x Iran deal by June 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.