Heightened US-Iran tensions since February 2026 have severely restricted commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with AIS-visible volumes falling to roughly 9% of pre-crisis levels amid attacks on tankers and Iranian claims of control. The US maintains multiple carrier strike groups and escort operations in the region, recently reinforced by the USS Theodore Roosevelt deployment, to protect energy flows that normally account for about 20% of global crude and LNG supply. These dynamics have lifted oil prices and shipping costs while prompting multinational naval planning involving the UK, France, Germany, and others for potential mine-clearing and freedom-of-navigation missions, contingent on diplomatic progress and Iranian conditions. Key near-term catalysts include ongoing US-Iran talks, upcoming FOMC and OPEC+ meetings that could shift rate and supply expectations, and any further carrier or amphibious group movements before year-end resolution.