Google's Veo 3.1 and Gemini Omni 1.1 Flash models drive the 88% market-implied odds through repeated leadership on third-party text-to-video arenas, delivering native audio, strong prompt adherence, 4K upscaling, scene extension, and conversational editing features rolled out in late August 2026. These capabilities, integrated across Google Vids, Flow, and the Gemini API, have outpaced rivals on benchmarks for realism, motion consistency, and production controls. Competitors such as ByteDance's Seedance, Kling, and Runway maintain lower odds due to narrower recent gains, while OpenAI's Sora faces an API shutdown on September 24 and Luma, Pika, and others trail in head-to-head evaluations. With resolution at end of September, traders appear to weigh Google's sustained technical edge and fresh updates as decisive.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGoogle 88%
Runway 4.3%
Luma AI 3.7%
ByteDance 1.4%
$20,775 Vol.
$20,775 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
88%
Runway
4%
Luma AI
4%
ByteDance
1%
MiniMax
1%
Pixverse
1%
Pika
1%
OpenAI
1%
KlingAI
1%
Pruna
1%
Kandinsky
1%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
1%
Tencent
<1%
Lightricks
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Genmo AI
<1%
Meta
<1%
Google 88%
Runway 4.3%
Luma AI 3.7%
ByteDance 1.4%
$20,775 Vol.
$20,775 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
$13,544 Vol.
88%
Runway
$547 Vol.
4%
Luma AI
$400 Vol.
4%
ByteDance
$982 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$645 Vol.
1%
Pixverse
$370 Vol.
1%
Pika
$453 Vol.
1%
OpenAI
$378 Vol.
1%
KlingAI
$413 Vol.
1%
Pruna
$399 Vol.
1%
Kandinsky
$370 Vol.
1%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
$365 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$350 Vol.
<1%
Lightricks
$422 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$458 Vol.
<1%
Genmo AI
$436 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$246 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google's Veo 3.1 and Gemini Omni 1.1 Flash models drive the 88% market-implied odds through repeated leadership on third-party text-to-video arenas, delivering native audio, strong prompt adherence, 4K upscaling, scene extension, and conversational editing features rolled out in late August 2026. These capabilities, integrated across Google Vids, Flow, and the Gemini API, have outpaced rivals on benchmarks for realism, motion consistency, and production controls. Competitors such as ByteDance's Seedance, Kling, and Runway maintain lower odds due to narrower recent gains, while OpenAI's Sora faces an API shutdown on September 24 and Luma, Pika, and others trail in head-to-head evaluations. With resolution at end of September, traders appear to weigh Google's sustained technical edge and fresh updates as decisive.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
Volume
$20,775End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google's Veo 3.1 and Gemini Omni 1.1 Flash models drive the 88% market-implied odds through repeated leadership on third-party text-to-video arenas, delivering native audio, strong prompt adherence, 4K upscaling, scene extension, and conversational editing features rolled out in late August 2026. These capabilities, integrated across Google Vids, Flow, and the Gemini API, have outpaced rivals on benchmarks for realism, motion consistency, and production controls. Competitors such as ByteDance's Seedance, Kling, and Runway maintain lower odds due to narrower recent gains, while OpenAI's Sora faces an API shutdown on September 24 and Luma, Pika, and others trail in head-to-head evaluations. With resolution at end of September, traders appear to weigh Google's sustained technical edge and fresh updates as decisive.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$20,775End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google's Veo 3.1 and Gemini Omni 1.1 Flash models drive the 88% market-implied odds through repeated leadership on third-party text-to-video arenas, delivering native audio, strong prompt adherence, 4K upscaling, scene extension, and conversational editing features rolled out in late August 2026. These capabilities, integrated across Google Vids, Flow, and the Gemini API, have outpaced rivals on benchmarks for realism, motion consistency, and production controls. Competitors such as ByteDance's Seedance, Kling, and Runway maintain lower odds due to narrower recent gains, while OpenAI's Sora faces an API shutdown on September 24 and Luma, Pika, and others trail in head-to-head evaluations. With resolution at end of September, traders appear to weigh Google's sustained technical edge and fresh updates as decisive.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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