Google's Veo 3.1 leads trader sentiment at 66% implied probability due to its strong benchmark performance in prompt adherence, native audio synchronization, realistic physics, and overall visual quality on datasets like MovieGenBench, with updates through early 2026 reinforcing its edge in cinematic text-to-video generation. Recent releases and integrations into Google tools have widened access and demonstrated consistent superiority over alternatives in head-to-head evaluations. ByteDance's Seedance 2.0 sits at 13% as a competitive contender for motion and fidelity, while most other labs including Kling, Runway, Luma, and OpenAI's Sora trail sharply amid deprecations or narrower capabilities. With the October resolution approaching, any new model drops or major benchmark shifts could still influence final positioning before the market settles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGoogle 66%
ByteDance 13%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH 3.1%
Meta 1.2%
$37,295 Vol.
$37,295 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
66%
ByteDance
13%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
3%
Meta
1%
Pixverse
1%
Tencent
1%
KlingAI
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Runway
<1%
Pruna
<1%
Luma AI
<1%
Kandinsky
<1%
Lightricks
<1%
Pika
<1%
Genmo AI
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Google 66%
ByteDance 13%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH 3.1%
Meta 1.2%
$37,295 Vol.
$37,295 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
$25,122 Vol.
66%
ByteDance
$5,091 Vol.
13%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
$772 Vol.
3%
Meta
$502 Vol.
1%
Pixverse
$426 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$466 Vol.
1%
KlingAI
$578 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$494 Vol.
<1%
Runway
$418 Vol.
<1%
Pruna
$351 Vol.
<1%
Luma AI
$509 Vol.
<1%
Kandinsky
$426 Vol.
<1%
Lightricks
$427 Vol.
<1%
Pika
$470 Vol.
<1%
Genmo AI
$443 Vol.
<1%
OpenAI
$373 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$426 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google's Veo 3.1 leads trader sentiment at 66% implied probability due to its strong benchmark performance in prompt adherence, native audio synchronization, realistic physics, and overall visual quality on datasets like MovieGenBench, with updates through early 2026 reinforcing its edge in cinematic text-to-video generation. Recent releases and integrations into Google tools have widened access and demonstrated consistent superiority over alternatives in head-to-head evaluations. ByteDance's Seedance 2.0 sits at 13% as a competitive contender for motion and fidelity, while most other labs including Kling, Runway, Luma, and OpenAI's Sora trail sharply amid deprecations or narrower capabilities. With the October resolution approaching, any new model drops or major benchmark shifts could still influence final positioning before the market settles.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ET
Volume
$37,295End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google's Veo 3.1 leads trader sentiment at 66% implied probability due to its strong benchmark performance in prompt adherence, native audio synchronization, realistic physics, and overall visual quality on datasets like MovieGenBench, with updates through early 2026 reinforcing its edge in cinematic text-to-video generation. Recent releases and integrations into Google tools have widened access and demonstrated consistent superiority over alternatives in head-to-head evaluations. ByteDance's Seedance 2.0 sits at 13% as a competitive contender for motion and fidelity, while most other labs including Kling, Runway, Luma, and OpenAI's Sora trail sharply amid deprecations or narrower capabilities. With the October resolution approaching, any new model drops or major benchmark shifts could still influence final positioning before the market settles.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$37,295End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google's Veo 3.1 leads trader sentiment at 66% implied probability due to its strong benchmark performance in prompt adherence, native audio synchronization, realistic physics, and overall visual quality on datasets like MovieGenBench, with updates through early 2026 reinforcing its edge in cinematic text-to-video generation. Recent releases and integrations into Google tools have widened access and demonstrated consistent superiority over alternatives in head-to-head evaluations. ByteDance's Seedance 2.0 sits at 13% as a competitive contender for motion and fidelity, while most other labs including Kling, Runway, Luma, and OpenAI's Sora trail sharply amid deprecations or narrower capabilities. With the October resolution approaching, any new model drops or major benchmark shifts could still influence final positioning before the market settles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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