OpenAI's GPT Image 2, released in April 2026, drives the 93.1% market-implied odds by topping major text-to-image leaderboards with superior text rendering, prompt adherence, and reasoning integration that enables complex layouts like infographics. Traders view this as a sustained edge over competitors such as Google's Nano Banana models or Microsoft's MAI-Image variants, which trail in arena Elo scores and head-to-head preference tests. With the September resolution deadline weeks away, recent stability in benchmarks reinforces the strong consensus. A surprise model update from Google or another lab demonstrating clear superiority on third-party evaluations could still narrow the gap before month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOpenAI 93.2%
Google 3.0%
SpaceXAI 2.6%
Meta 2.1%
$36,449 Vol.
$36,449 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
OpenAI
93%
3%
SpaceXAI
3%
Meta
2%
Microsoft AI
2%
Black Forest Labs
2%
Reve
1%
ByteDance
1%
Tencent
1%
Recraft
1%
Ideogram
<1%
Luma AI
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
OpenAI 93.2%
Google 3.0%
SpaceXAI 2.6%
Meta 2.1%
$36,449 Vol.
$36,449 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
OpenAI
$26,608 Vol.
93%
$477 Vol.
3%
SpaceXAI
$451 Vol.
3%
Meta
$462 Vol.
2%
Microsoft AI
$416 Vol.
2%
Black Forest Labs
$316 Vol.
2%
Reve
$914 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$385 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$318 Vol.
1%
Recraft
$284 Vol.
1%
Ideogram
$404 Vol.
<1%
Luma AI
$330 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$5,083 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Image Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Image Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Image Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-image (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Image Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI's GPT Image 2, released in April 2026, drives the 93.1% market-implied odds by topping major text-to-image leaderboards with superior text rendering, prompt adherence, and reasoning integration that enables complex layouts like infographics. Traders view this as a sustained edge over competitors such as Google's Nano Banana models or Microsoft's MAI-Image variants, which trail in arena Elo scores and head-to-head preference tests. With the September resolution deadline weeks away, recent stability in benchmarks reinforces the strong consensus. A surprise model update from Google or another lab demonstrating clear superiority on third-party evaluations could still narrow the gap before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Image Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Image Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Image Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-image (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Image Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Image Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-image (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Image Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Volume
$36,449End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-imageResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Image Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Image Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Image Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-image (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Image Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI's GPT Image 2, released in April 2026, drives the 93.1% market-implied odds by topping major text-to-image leaderboards with superior text rendering, prompt adherence, and reasoning integration that enables complex layouts like infographics. Traders view this as a sustained edge over competitors such as Google's Nano Banana models or Microsoft's MAI-Image variants, which trail in arena Elo scores and head-to-head preference tests. With the September resolution deadline weeks away, recent stability in benchmarks reinforces the strong consensus. A surprise model update from Google or another lab demonstrating clear superiority on third-party evaluations could still narrow the gap before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Image Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Image Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Image Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-image (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Image Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Image Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-image (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Image Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$36,449End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-imageResolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI's GPT Image 2, released in April 2026, drives the 93.1% market-implied odds by topping major text-to-image leaderboards with superior text rendering, prompt adherence, and reasoning integration that enables complex layouts like infographics. Traders view this as a sustained edge over competitors such as Google's Nano Banana models or Microsoft's MAI-Image variants, which trail in arena Elo scores and head-to-head preference tests. With the September resolution deadline weeks away, recent stability in benchmarks reinforces the strong consensus. A surprise model update from Google or another lab demonstrating clear superiority on third-party evaluations could still narrow the gap before month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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