OpenAI’s recent launch of GPT-6 Astra on September 3 has driven its 71.2% market-implied odds, as the model quickly claimed the top spot on Code Arena’s WebDev leaderboard with a 1,797 score, 35 points ahead of Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1. This crowdsourced Elo-style benchmark evaluates agentic frontend coding through real-user votes on iterative web-app tasks, rewarding demonstrated multi-step reasoning and tool use over static tests. Anthropic’s 19.5% reflects its prior dominance with Claude variants but highlights the competitive gap after OpenAI’s update. Lower odds for Alibaba, Moonshot, and others align with their trailing scores on the same live leaderboard, though Chinese models have shown periodic strength in earlier 2026 snapshots. With resolution set for end of October, traders are watching for potential follow-on releases or further leaderboard shifts before the cutoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOpenAI 71.2%
Anthropic 20%
Alibaba 5.4%
SpaceXAI 1.6%
$63,045 Vol.
$63,045 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
OpenAI
71%
Anthropic
20%
Alibaba
5%
SpaceXAI
2%
Moonshot
1%
Tencent
1%
Z.ai
1%
Poolside
1%
<1%
Meta
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Thinky
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
OpenAI 71.2%
Anthropic 20%
Alibaba 5.4%
SpaceXAI 1.6%
$63,045 Vol.
$63,045 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
OpenAI
$2,781 Vol.
71%
Anthropic
$48,851 Vol.
20%
Alibaba
$1,008 Vol.
5%
SpaceXAI
$768 Vol.
2%
Moonshot
$1,663 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$734 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$742 Vol.
1%
Poolside
$639 Vol.
1%
$1,544 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$740 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$615 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$631 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$601 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$782 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$558 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$387 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI’s recent launch of GPT-6 Astra on September 3 has driven its 71.2% market-implied odds, as the model quickly claimed the top spot on Code Arena’s WebDev leaderboard with a 1,797 score, 35 points ahead of Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1. This crowdsourced Elo-style benchmark evaluates agentic frontend coding through real-user votes on iterative web-app tasks, rewarding demonstrated multi-step reasoning and tool use over static tests. Anthropic’s 19.5% reflects its prior dominance with Claude variants but highlights the competitive gap after OpenAI’s update. Lower odds for Alibaba, Moonshot, and others align with their trailing scores on the same live leaderboard, though Chinese models have shown periodic strength in earlier 2026 snapshots. With resolution set for end of October, traders are watching for potential follow-on releases or further leaderboard shifts before the cutoff.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 7:56 PM ET
Volume
$63,045End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI’s recent launch of GPT-6 Astra on September 3 has driven its 71.2% market-implied odds, as the model quickly claimed the top spot on Code Arena’s WebDev leaderboard with a 1,797 score, 35 points ahead of Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1. This crowdsourced Elo-style benchmark evaluates agentic frontend coding through real-user votes on iterative web-app tasks, rewarding demonstrated multi-step reasoning and tool use over static tests. Anthropic’s 19.5% reflects its prior dominance with Claude variants but highlights the competitive gap after OpenAI’s update. Lower odds for Alibaba, Moonshot, and others align with their trailing scores on the same live leaderboard, though Chinese models have shown periodic strength in earlier 2026 snapshots. With resolution set for end of October, traders are watching for potential follow-on releases or further leaderboard shifts before the cutoff.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$63,045End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI’s recent launch of GPT-6 Astra on September 3 has driven its 71.2% market-implied odds, as the model quickly claimed the top spot on Code Arena’s WebDev leaderboard with a 1,797 score, 35 points ahead of Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1. This crowdsourced Elo-style benchmark evaluates agentic frontend coding through real-user votes on iterative web-app tasks, rewarding demonstrated multi-step reasoning and tool use over static tests. Anthropic’s 19.5% reflects its prior dominance with Claude variants but highlights the competitive gap after OpenAI’s update. Lower odds for Alibaba, Moonshot, and others align with their trailing scores on the same live leaderboard, though Chinese models have shown periodic strength in earlier 2026 snapshots. With resolution set for end of October, traders are watching for potential follow-on releases or further leaderboard shifts before the cutoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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