Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 64% implied probability due to its Claude Fable 5 and Opus series demonstrating top-tier mathematical reasoning on recent LiveBench snapshots, including strong gains on hard-tier problems where prior models lagged. This edge stems from targeted advances in chain-of-thought scaling and specialized fine-tuning that have outpaced OpenAI's o3 and GPT-5 variants in contamination-resistant math evaluations. OpenAI sits at 35.5% as a credible contender given its history of rapid releases, while Google and smaller labs trail sharply. With roughly six weeks until the end-of-October resolution, any new frontier model drops or LiveBench updates could shift the leaderboard before final scoring.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 65%
OpenAI 36%
Google 2.0%
DeepSeek <1%
$21,750 Vol.
$21,750 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
65%
OpenAI
36%
2%
DeepSeek
1%
Amazon
1%
ByteDance
1%
Thinky
1%
MiniMax
1%
StepFun
1%
Microsoft
1%
Alibaba
1%
Mistral
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Meta
1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Anthropic 65%
OpenAI 36%
Google 2.0%
DeepSeek <1%
$21,750 Vol.
$21,750 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$5,402 Vol.
65%
OpenAI
$6,460 Vol.
36%
$1,503 Vol.
2%
DeepSeek
$479 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$586 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$454 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$562 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$488 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$459 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$509 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$475 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$518 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$558 Vol.
1%
Meta
$501 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$286 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$390 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$858 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$253 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$386 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$283 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$339 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 64% implied probability due to its Claude Fable 5 and Opus series demonstrating top-tier mathematical reasoning on recent LiveBench snapshots, including strong gains on hard-tier problems where prior models lagged. This edge stems from targeted advances in chain-of-thought scaling and specialized fine-tuning that have outpaced OpenAI's o3 and GPT-5 variants in contamination-resistant math evaluations. OpenAI sits at 35.5% as a credible contender given its history of rapid releases, while Google and smaller labs trail sharply. With roughly six weeks until the end-of-October resolution, any new frontier model drops or LiveBench updates could shift the leaderboard before final scoring.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
Volume
$21,750End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 64% implied probability due to its Claude Fable 5 and Opus series demonstrating top-tier mathematical reasoning on recent LiveBench snapshots, including strong gains on hard-tier problems where prior models lagged. This edge stems from targeted advances in chain-of-thought scaling and specialized fine-tuning that have outpaced OpenAI's o3 and GPT-5 variants in contamination-resistant math evaluations. OpenAI sits at 35.5% as a credible contender given its history of rapid releases, while Google and smaller labs trail sharply. With roughly six weeks until the end-of-October resolution, any new frontier model drops or LiveBench updates could shift the leaderboard before final scoring.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$21,750End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 64% implied probability due to its Claude Fable 5 and Opus series demonstrating top-tier mathematical reasoning on recent LiveBench snapshots, including strong gains on hard-tier problems where prior models lagged. This edge stems from targeted advances in chain-of-thought scaling and specialized fine-tuning that have outpaced OpenAI's o3 and GPT-5 variants in contamination-resistant math evaluations. OpenAI sits at 35.5% as a credible contender given its history of rapid releases, while Google and smaller labs trail sharply. With roughly six weeks until the end-of-October resolution, any new frontier model drops or LiveBench updates could shift the leaderboard before final scoring.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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