Anthropic's dominant 90% market-implied probability reflects its recent Claude Fable 5 and Fable 5.1 releases, which post leading or near-top scores on LiveBench coding subtasks and related contamination-resistant evaluations like SWE-bench Verified and agentic coding benchmarks through early September 2026. These models benefit from strong demonstrated capabilities in long-horizon code generation, tool use, and execution validation, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol and GPT-6 Astra variants that trail at lower implied odds. Traders appear to weigh Anthropic's consistent edge in independent harnesses and recent Terminal-Bench gains against the possibility of rapid OpenAI or Google updates before the late-October resolution window, though low probabilities for DeepSeek, Qwen, and others underscore limited near-term shifts in the coding frontier.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 90%
OpenAI 8%
DeepSeek <1%
SpaceXAI <1%
$16,213 Vol.
$16,213 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
90%
OpenAI
8%
DeepSeek
1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Meta
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Anthropic 90%
OpenAI 8%
DeepSeek <1%
SpaceXAI <1%
$16,213 Vol.
$16,213 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$5,630 Vol.
90%
OpenAI
$2,411 Vol.
8%
DeepSeek
$513 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$603 Vol.
<1%
$546 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$455 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$424 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$552 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$297 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$426 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$334 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$395 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$507 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$468 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$410 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$363 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$454 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$364 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$398 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$355 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$310 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic's dominant 90% market-implied probability reflects its recent Claude Fable 5 and Fable 5.1 releases, which post leading or near-top scores on LiveBench coding subtasks and related contamination-resistant evaluations like SWE-bench Verified and agentic coding benchmarks through early September 2026. These models benefit from strong demonstrated capabilities in long-horizon code generation, tool use, and execution validation, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol and GPT-6 Astra variants that trail at lower implied odds. Traders appear to weigh Anthropic's consistent edge in independent harnesses and recent Terminal-Bench gains against the possibility of rapid OpenAI or Google updates before the late-October resolution window, though low probabilities for DeepSeek, Qwen, and others underscore limited near-term shifts in the coding frontier.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
Volume
$16,213End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic's dominant 90% market-implied probability reflects its recent Claude Fable 5 and Fable 5.1 releases, which post leading or near-top scores on LiveBench coding subtasks and related contamination-resistant evaluations like SWE-bench Verified and agentic coding benchmarks through early September 2026. These models benefit from strong demonstrated capabilities in long-horizon code generation, tool use, and execution validation, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol and GPT-6 Astra variants that trail at lower implied odds. Traders appear to weigh Anthropic's consistent edge in independent harnesses and recent Terminal-Bench gains against the possibility of rapid OpenAI or Google updates before the late-October resolution window, though low probabilities for DeepSeek, Qwen, and others underscore limited near-term shifts in the coding frontier.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$16,213End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's dominant 90% market-implied probability reflects its recent Claude Fable 5 and Fable 5.1 releases, which post leading or near-top scores on LiveBench coding subtasks and related contamination-resistant evaluations like SWE-bench Verified and agentic coding benchmarks through early September 2026. These models benefit from strong demonstrated capabilities in long-horizon code generation, tool use, and execution validation, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol and GPT-6 Astra variants that trail at lower implied odds. Traders appear to weigh Anthropic's consistent edge in independent harnesses and recent Terminal-Bench gains against the possibility of rapid OpenAI or Google updates before the late-October resolution window, though low probabilities for DeepSeek, Qwen, and others underscore limited near-term shifts in the coding frontier.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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