Anthropic’s Claude family, particularly the late-July release of Opus 5 and the earlier Fable 5, has driven overwhelming trader consensus by topping independent leaderboards on metrics such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, BenchAlign, and agentic coding benchmarks like SWE-Bench. These large language models demonstrate superior performance in complex reasoning, long-horizon planning, and frontier tasks, outpacing GPT-5.6 variants and Gemini 3 models across quality, speed, and value composites as of July 31. Traders view this as durable skin-in-the-game evidence of Anthropic’s edge in current capabilities. A realistic challenge could arise only from an unannounced competitor update or benchmark reevaluation that materially shifts verified scores before month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 100.0%
Google <1%
OpenAI <1%
Alibaba <1%
$8,226,985 Vol.
$8,226,985 Vol.
Jul 30, 2026
No
Anthropic
Yes
OpenAI
No
Alibaba
No
Z.ai
No
xAI
No
DeepSeek
No
Moonshot
No
Mistral
No
Meituan
No
Microsoft
No
Meta
No
Amazon
No
Baidu
No
ByteDance
No
Anthropic 100.0%
Google <1%
OpenAI <1%
Alibaba <1%
$8,226,985 Vol.
$8,226,985 Vol.
Jul 30, 2026
$845,873 Vol.
No
Anthropic
$1,244,192 Vol.
Yes
OpenAI
$953,319 Vol.
No
Alibaba
$463,283 Vol.
No
Z.ai
$344,273 Vol.
No
xAI
$828,014 Vol.
No
DeepSeek
$547,925 Vol.
No
Moonshot
$673,000 Vol.
No
Mistral
$222,882 Vol.
No
Meituan
$278,531 Vol.
No
Microsoft
$368,519 Vol.
No
Meta
$673,223 Vol.
No
Amazon
$196,149 Vol.
No
Baidu
$291,436 Vol.
No
ByteDance
$296,365 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s Claude family, particularly the late-July release of Opus 5 and the earlier Fable 5, has driven overwhelming trader consensus by topping independent leaderboards on metrics such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, BenchAlign, and agentic coding benchmarks like SWE-Bench. These large language models demonstrate superior performance in complex reasoning, long-horizon planning, and frontier tasks, outpacing GPT-5.6 variants and Gemini 3 models across quality, speed, and value composites as of July 31. Traders view this as durable skin-in-the-game evidence of Anthropic’s edge in current capabilities. A realistic challenge could arise only from an unannounced competitor update or benchmark reevaluation that materially shifts verified scores before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Jun 4, 2026, 1:50 PM ET
Volume
$8,226,985End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 4, 2026, 1:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s Claude family, particularly the late-July release of Opus 5 and the earlier Fable 5, has driven overwhelming trader consensus by topping independent leaderboards on metrics such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, BenchAlign, and agentic coding benchmarks like SWE-Bench. These large language models demonstrate superior performance in complex reasoning, long-horizon planning, and frontier tasks, outpacing GPT-5.6 variants and Gemini 3 models across quality, speed, and value composites as of July 31. Traders view this as durable skin-in-the-game evidence of Anthropic’s edge in current capabilities. A realistic challenge could arise only from an unannounced competitor update or benchmark reevaluation that materially shifts verified scores before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$8,226,985End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 4, 2026, 1:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Anthropic’s Claude family, particularly the late-July release of Opus 5 and the earlier Fable 5, has driven overwhelming trader consensus by topping independent leaderboards on metrics such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, BenchAlign, and agentic coding benchmarks like SWE-Bench. These large language models demonstrate superior performance in complex reasoning, long-horizon planning, and frontier tasks, outpacing GPT-5.6 variants and Gemini 3 models across quality, speed, and value composites as of July 31. Traders view this as durable skin-in-the-game evidence of Anthropic’s edge in current capabilities. A realistic challenge could arise only from an unannounced competitor update or benchmark reevaluation that materially shifts verified scores before month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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