Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 leads current leaderboards with top composite scores on benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench and coding evals, driving the 76% market-implied probability that it holds the #1 position by end of October. Recent early-September releases of Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 variants delivered measurable gains in agentic and reasoning tasks, widening the gap over OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and GPT-5.6 Sol lines. Traders appear to view Anthropic’s consistent iteration pace and safety-focused positioning as durable advantages in a market where model releases can shift rankings quickly. OpenAI’s 15% odds reflect expectations of further updates, while lower probabilities for Google, Meta, and others align with their current mid-tier benchmark placements and less frequent frontier releases. Key near-term catalysts include any additional October model drops or benchmark refreshes that could narrow the gap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 76%
OpenAI 15.2%
Meta 4.9%
Google 3.3%
$18,646 Vol.
$18,646 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
76%
OpenAI
15%
Meta
5%
3%
Baidu
3%
Alibaba
2%
Moonshot
1%
Z.ai
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Nvidia
1%
Tencent
1%
Microsoft
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
ByteDance
1%
MiniMax
1%
Meituan
1%
StepFun
1%
Thinky
1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Anthropic 76%
OpenAI 15.2%
Meta 4.9%
Google 3.3%
$18,646 Vol.
$18,646 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$12,468 Vol.
76%
OpenAI
$448 Vol.
15%
Meta
$283 Vol.
5%
$325 Vol.
3%
Baidu
$166 Vol.
3%
Alibaba
$326 Vol.
2%
Moonshot
$357 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$366 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$307 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$290 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$286 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$283 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$247 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$302 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$328 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$286 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$287 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$294 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$422 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$290 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$287 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 leads current leaderboards with top composite scores on benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench and coding evals, driving the 76% market-implied probability that it holds the #1 position by end of October. Recent early-September releases of Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 variants delivered measurable gains in agentic and reasoning tasks, widening the gap over OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and GPT-5.6 Sol lines. Traders appear to view Anthropic’s consistent iteration pace and safety-focused positioning as durable advantages in a market where model releases can shift rankings quickly. OpenAI’s 15% odds reflect expectations of further updates, while lower probabilities for Google, Meta, and others align with their current mid-tier benchmark placements and less frequent frontier releases. Key near-term catalysts include any additional October model drops or benchmark refreshes that could narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$18,646End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 leads current leaderboards with top composite scores on benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench and coding evals, driving the 76% market-implied probability that it holds the #1 position by end of October. Recent early-September releases of Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 variants delivered measurable gains in agentic and reasoning tasks, widening the gap over OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and GPT-5.6 Sol lines. Traders appear to view Anthropic’s consistent iteration pace and safety-focused positioning as durable advantages in a market where model releases can shift rankings quickly. OpenAI’s 15% odds reflect expectations of further updates, while lower probabilities for Google, Meta, and others align with their current mid-tier benchmark placements and less frequent frontier releases. Key near-term catalysts include any additional October model drops or benchmark refreshes that could narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$18,646End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 leads current leaderboards with top composite scores on benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench and coding evals, driving the 76% market-implied probability that it holds the #1 position by end of October. Recent early-September releases of Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 variants delivered measurable gains in agentic and reasoning tasks, widening the gap over OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and GPT-5.6 Sol lines. Traders appear to view Anthropic’s consistent iteration pace and safety-focused positioning as durable advantages in a market where model releases can shift rankings quickly. OpenAI’s 15% odds reflect expectations of further updates, while lower probabilities for Google, Meta, and others align with their current mid-tier benchmark placements and less frequent frontier releases. Key near-term catalysts include any additional October model drops or benchmark refreshes that could narrow the gap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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