Anthropic's June and July 2026 releases of Claude Mythos 5, Fable 5, and Opus 5 have driven the 95% market-implied odds by securing the top spots on major leaderboards such as BenchLM, with standout results in reasoning, agentic coding, long-context tasks, and tool use that outpace competitors. These models deliver measurable gains in autonomous workflows and benchmark saturation relative to prior Opus tiers, reflecting Anthropic's focused scaling and safety-tuned architecture. With only weeks until end-of-August resolution and no confirmed frontier launches from OpenAI, Google, or others on the immediate horizon, traders see limited room for a shift. A last-minute capability jump or style-controlled Arena reversal from another lab could still alter the outcome, though current verified performance makes such an upset improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 95.0%
OpenAI 3.4%
Google 2.1%
SpaceXAI 1.5%
$23,441 Vol.
$23,441 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
95%
OpenAI
3%
2%
SpaceXAI
2%
Bytedance
1%
StepFun
1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Meta
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 95.0%
OpenAI 3.4%
Google 2.1%
SpaceXAI 1.5%
$23,441 Vol.
$23,441 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
$4,999 Vol.
95%
OpenAI
$2,838 Vol.
3%
$2,046 Vol.
2%
SpaceXAI
$1,224 Vol.
2%
Bytedance
$608 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$721 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$718 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$1,180 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$690 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$908 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$891 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$1,067 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$802 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$1,069 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$459 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$330 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$939 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$330 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$774 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$344 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$505 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's June and July 2026 releases of Claude Mythos 5, Fable 5, and Opus 5 have driven the 95% market-implied odds by securing the top spots on major leaderboards such as BenchLM, with standout results in reasoning, agentic coding, long-context tasks, and tool use that outpace competitors. These models deliver measurable gains in autonomous workflows and benchmark saturation relative to prior Opus tiers, reflecting Anthropic's focused scaling and safety-tuned architecture. With only weeks until end-of-August resolution and no confirmed frontier launches from OpenAI, Google, or others on the immediate horizon, traders see limited room for a shift. A last-minute capability jump or style-controlled Arena reversal from another lab could still alter the outcome, though current verified performance makes such an upset improbable.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ET
Volume
$23,441End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's June and July 2026 releases of Claude Mythos 5, Fable 5, and Opus 5 have driven the 95% market-implied odds by securing the top spots on major leaderboards such as BenchLM, with standout results in reasoning, agentic coding, long-context tasks, and tool use that outpace competitors. These models deliver measurable gains in autonomous workflows and benchmark saturation relative to prior Opus tiers, reflecting Anthropic's focused scaling and safety-tuned architecture. With only weeks until end-of-August resolution and no confirmed frontier launches from OpenAI, Google, or others on the immediate horizon, traders see limited room for a shift. A last-minute capability jump or style-controlled Arena reversal from another lab could still alter the outcome, though current verified performance makes such an upset improbable.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$23,441End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's June and July 2026 releases of Claude Mythos 5, Fable 5, and Opus 5 have driven the 95% market-implied odds by securing the top spots on major leaderboards such as BenchLM, with standout results in reasoning, agentic coding, long-context tasks, and tool use that outpace competitors. These models deliver measurable gains in autonomous workflows and benchmark saturation relative to prior Opus tiers, reflecting Anthropic's focused scaling and safety-tuned architecture. With only weeks until end-of-August resolution and no confirmed frontier launches from OpenAI, Google, or others on the immediate horizon, traders see limited room for a shift. A last-minute capability jump or style-controlled Arena reversal from another lab could still alter the outcome, though current verified performance makes such an upset improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions