Which coalition will form the next Dutch government?
VVD + CDA + D66 99.2%
VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66 <1%
No Coalition by October 31 <1%
GL/PvdA + D66 + CDA <1%
$36,522,105 Vol.
$36,522,105 Vol.
VVD + CDA + D66
$1,011,489 Vol.
99%
VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66
$929,800 Vol.
<1%
No Coalition by October 31
$644,418 Vol.
<1%
GL/PvdA + D66 + CDA
$806,084 Vol.
<1%
PVV + CDA + JA21
$2,158,213 Vol.
<1%
Other
$1,073,977 Vol.
<1%
PVV + GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA
$3,685,723 Vol.
<1%
GL/PvdA + VVD + D66
$1,181,947 Vol.
<1%
PVV + JA21
$173,587 Vol.
<1%
PVV + VVD + JA21
$286,243 Vol.
<1%
PVV + VVD + JA21 + D66
$918,427 Vol.
<1%
PVV + VVD
$2,836,416 Vol.
<1%
PVV + CDA
$1,936,502 Vol.
<1%
PVV + VVD + D66
$849,391 Vol.
<1%
PVV + VVD + CDA + JA21
$1,183,419 Vol.
<1%
PVV + VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66
$729,837 Vol.
<1%
PVV + VVD + CDA
$544,777 Vol.
<1%
PVV + CDA + D66
$260,049 Vol.
<1%
PVV + VVD + CDA + D66
$1,252,797 Vol.
<1%
VVD + JA21
$312,661 Vol.
<1%
VVD + D66
$615,067 Vol.
<1%
GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA
$363,753 Vol.
<1%
PVV + GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA + D66
$5,880,826 Vol.
<1%
GL/PvdA + D66
$120,872 Vol.
<1%
VVD + CDA + JA21
$892,283 Vol.
<1%
VVD + CDA
$3,949,784 Vol.
<1%
CDA + D66
$416,549 Vol.
<1%
GL/PvdA + VVD
$363,732 Vol.
<1%
GL/PvdA + CDA
$681,773 Vol.
<1%
GL/PvdA
$460,663 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2025 Dutch general election.
If the next Dutch Government after the election is not announced by October 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No Coalition by October 31".
A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it signs the coalition agreement and provides at least one cabinet minister.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially announced and sworn in by the monarch, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
The following parties will be to be considered for this market: PVV, GroenLinks–PvdA, VVD, CDA, D66, JA21. All other parties (including but not limited to SP, BBB, NSC, DENK, PvdD, FvD, SGP, CU, and Volt) will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option (along with any other parties), that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition.
For example:
If the governing coalition includes GL–PvdA + VVD + CDA + JA21, but no option explicitly lists those four together, the market will resolve to “VVD + CDA + JA21”.
If the governing coalition includes PVV + VVD + CDA + D66, the option “PVV + VVD + CDA + D66” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PVV + VVD + CDA” will resolve to “No".
If the governing coalition does not match any listed option (e.g. the governing coalition is D66 + JA21) this market will resolve to “Other”.
In the event that multiple market options each contain an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed coalition which received the greater number of valid votes.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of the Netherlands.
Created At: Oct 15, 2025, 1:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Which coalition will form the next Dutch government?
VVD + CDA + D66 99.2%
VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66 <1%
No Coalition by October 31 <1%
GL/PvdA + D66 + CDA <1%
$36,522,105 Vol.
$36,522,105 Vol.
VVD + CDA + D66
99%
VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66
<1%
No Coalition by October 31
<1%
GL/PvdA + D66 + CDA
<1%
PVV + CDA + JA21
<1%
Other
<1%
PVV + GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA
<1%
GL/PvdA + VVD + D66
<1%
PVV + JA21
<1%
PVV + VVD + JA21
<1%
PVV + VVD + JA21 + D66
<1%
PVV + VVD
<1%
PVV + CDA
<1%
PVV + VVD + D66
<1%
PVV + VVD + CDA + JA21
<1%
PVV + VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66
<1%
PVV + VVD + CDA
<1%
PVV + CDA + D66
<1%
PVV + VVD + CDA + D66
<1%
VVD + JA21
<1%
VVD + D66
<1%
GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA
<1%
PVV + GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA + D66
<1%
GL/PvdA + D66
<1%
VVD + CDA + JA21
<1%
VVD + CDA
<1%
CDA + D66
<1%
GL/PvdA + VVD
<1%
GL/PvdA + CDA
<1%
GL/PvdA
<1%
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