Russia's consistent rejection of direct leader-level engagement has anchored trader consensus around no Zelenskyy-Putin meeting before 2027. On June 4, 2026, Zelenskyy issued an open letter proposing talks in a neutral venue such as Turkey or Switzerland to secure a full ceasefire, yet Putin dismissed the overture as inappropriate and reiterated that substantive negotiations must precede any summit. European E3 diplomats have since pressed Moscow for direct talks while U.S. mediation has stalled amid shifting priorities. These dynamics, combined with Russia's insistence on maximalist territorial and security demands and the absence of battlefield conditions forcing compromise, sustain elevated probabilities for no bilateral encounter through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedZelenskyy attends Nordic-Baltic summit, signaling continued diplomatic efforts
No meeting before 2027 rises to 86%2%
Zelenskyy’s participation in international summits like the Nordic-Baltic Eight reflects ongoing diplomatic engagement but no direct meeting with Putin, reinforcing market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy Confirms Secret Backchannel Meeting with Roman Abramovich in Kyiv
No meeting before 2027 rises to 84%4%
Reports emerged that Zelenskyy had previously met with Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich in Kyiv to pass a private proposal for a face-to-face meeting to Putin, which Putin ultimately dismissed.
Zelenskyy meets Roman Abramovich in Kyiv to convey message to Putin
Zelenskyy met with Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich in Kyiv to pass a message to Putin, reiterating the request for a face-to-face meeting, but Abramovich indicated Putin was unlikely to accept, sustaining market skepticism about a meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy confirms Abramovich’s secret mission to Putin and criticizes Kremlin’s weak response
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 87%6%
Zelenskyy publicly acknowledged using Abramovich as a channel to send messages to Putin, including a ceasefire proposal. He criticized Putin’s weak response, reinforcing market sentiment that a meeting was unlikely soon.
Zelenskyy confirms secret Kyiv meeting with Roman Abramovich acting as intermediary to Putin
No meeting before 2027 rises to 87%4%
Zelenskyy broke his silence on a late May meeting in Kyiv with Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich, who acted as a backchannel intermediary to deliver a message to Putin regarding direct talks.
Putin Rejects Zelenskyy's Proposal for Face-to-Face Talks
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 86%8%
Speaking at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected Zelenskyy's offer for direct talks, calling the letter rude and stating he saw no point in a meeting.
Putin rejects Zelenskyy’s meeting proposal, says ‘no point’ for now
No meeting before 2027 rises to 84%1%
Putin publicly rejected Zelenskyy’s offer for direct talks, calling the letter rude and stating there was no point in meeting before military goals are achieved, reinforcing market confidence in no meeting before 2027.
Kremlin responds to Zelenskyy's letter by suggesting he can come to Moscow
No meeting before 2027 dips to 78%3%
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that Putin would be briefed on the letter but reiterated that Zelenskyy was welcome to meet in Moscow at any time. This response, along with expert skepticism, tempered expectations of a neutral-ground meeting, keeping 'No meeting before 2027' as the dominant market favorite.
Putin rejects Zelenskyy’s call for talks, says 'no point' in meeting now
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 84%7%
Putin publicly dismissed the idea of meeting Zelenskyy, stating the only point would be for Ukraine to stop advancing militarily. This reinforced market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
Putin repeats ‘no point’ in meeting Zelenskyy at St. Petersburg forum
No meeting before 2027 rises to 84%3%
During the St. Petersburg Economic Forum Putin reiterated there was “no point” in meeting Zelenskyy now, reinforcing the market’s belief that a meeting will not happen before 2027 and keeping the “No meeting” odds near the ceiling.
Putin rejects Zelenskyy’s offer to meet, says he sees ‘no point’
No meeting before 2027 rises to 84%1%
At the St Petersburg economic forum, Putin dismissed Zelenskyy’s proposal for a face-to-face meeting as 'boorish' and stated there was no point in meeting without prior agreements, reinforcing Russia's position and increasing market confidence in 'No meeting before 2027'.
Kremlin says Zelenskyy can meet Putin in Moscow anytime but Putin hasn't reviewed letter
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated Zelenskyy could travel to Moscow for talks anytime, but Putin had not yet reviewed Zelenskyy's open letter. This ambiguous stance did not increase market odds for a meeting outside Moscow.
Kremlin welcomes Zelenskyy’s meeting proposal but Putin has not reviewed letter yet
No meeting before 2027 rises to 84%3%
Kremlin spokesperson Peskov said Russia welcomed the idea of a meeting and that Zelenskyy could travel to Moscow anytime, but Putin had not yet reviewed the letter. This ambiguous stance maintained market skepticism about a meeting in neutral venues.
Putin says Russia is ready for peaceful talks but calls Zelenskyy’s letter boorish
US rises to 2%1%
At the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Putin reiterated Russia’s readiness to negotiate “through peaceful means”, but also dismissed Zelenskyy’s letter as “boorish”. The market saw a small uptick for the “Russia‑friendly” options (China, US) before falling back.
Kremlin says Putin ready to meet Zelenskyy only in Moscow to finalize agreements
Russia dips to 1%1%
Kremlin spokesperson stated Putin would meet Zelenskyy only in Moscow and only to finalize agreements already reached, rejecting neutral venues and limiting chances of a meeting elsewhere.
Zelenskyy publishes open letter proposing face-to-face meeting with Putin in neutral venues
Zelenskyy publicly proposed direct talks with Putin, suggesting Switzerland, Turkey, or Arab states as possible locations, and offered a full ceasefire. This renewed diplomatic push briefly increased market interest in these venues but was met with Kremlin skepticism.
Zelenskyy publicly calls for face-to-face talks with Putin in neutral country
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%2%
Zelenskyy issued an open letter proposing direct negotiations with Putin in a neutral third country such as Switzerland, Turkey, or Arab states, and offered a full ceasefire during talks. This renewed hopes for a meeting but was met with skepticism given Putin's prior refusals.
Zelenskyy calls for face-to-face Ukraine war negotiations in letter to Putin
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 79%5%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy publicly proposed a face-to-face meeting with Russian President Putin in a neutral country, suggesting Switzerland, Turkey, or Arab states as possible venues, and offered a full ceasefire during negotiations, aiming to restart peace talks.
Zelenskyy publishes open letter to Putin proposing direct meeting in neutral venue
Qatar / UAE rises to 6%3%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy issued a rare, direct public letter to Vladimir Putin proposing a face-to-face meeting in a neutral country like Switzerland, Turkey, or an Arab state, accompanied by a full ceasefire.
Trump backs Zelenskyy's proposal for direct talks with Putin
No meeting before 2027 dips to 78%3%
U.S. President Donald Trump publicly supported the idea of a face-to-face meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, stating it would be 'great' and that both sides would need to make compromises, adding further diplomatic weight to the proposal.
Zelenskyy publishes open letter to Putin proposing face-to-face meeting in neutral country
Turkey rises to 6%3%
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy sent his first direct public letter to Vladimir Putin since the 2022 invasion, proposing a face-to-face meeting to negotiate an end to the war. He explicitly suggested Switzerland, Turkey, or Arab states as potential neutral hosts, which boosted the odds for Turkey while slightly lowering the probability of 'No meeting before 2027'.
Kremlin says Zelenskyy can meet Putin in Moscow anytime, Zelenskyy rejects Moscow venue
No meeting before 2027 dips to 78%3%
In response to Zelenskyy's letter, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed the Kremlin had seen the letter and said Zelenskyy could meet Putin in Moscow anytime. Zelenskyy preemptively ruled out Moscow as a meeting location, maintaining his stance for a neutral venue. This exchange maintained market uncertainty but reinforced the low probability of a meeting in Moscow, indirectly supporting the 'No meeting before 2027' outcome.
Zelenskyy proposes face-to-face meeting with Putin in open letter suggesting neutral venues
Turkey rises to 6%3%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy published an open letter to Putin proposing direct talks to end the war, suggesting neutral countries like Switzerland, Turkey, or Arab states as possible meeting locations, and ruling out Moscow and Kyiv. This renewed bid for peace talks increased market interest in Turkey as a potential meeting site and slightly decreased the chance of no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy suggests Arab countries as possible hosts for peace talks with Putin
Qatar / UAE dips to 4%1%
Zelenskyy mentioned in his letter that Arab countries, along with Switzerland and Turkey, could host the face-to-face peace talks. This broadened the potential venues and slightly influenced market prices for Qatar/UAE and Saudi Arabia, though these remained low probability outcomes.
Putin dismisses Zelenskyy’s meeting proposal, sees 'no point' in talks now
Putin publicly rejected the idea of meeting Zelenskyy at this time, stating the only point would be for Ukraine to stop its military advances, reinforcing market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy publishes open letter proposing face-to-face meeting with Putin
No meeting before 2027 rises to 77%2%
Zelenskyy publicly called for direct talks with Putin in a neutral country such as Switzerland, Turkey, or Arab states, offering a ceasefire. This renewed hopes for a meeting but was met with Kremlin rejection, limiting market impact.
Zelenskyy publicly proposes face-to-face meeting with Putin in neutral country
No meeting before 2027 rises to 83%4%
Zelenskyy issued an open letter proposing a direct meeting with Putin to end the war, suggesting neutral venues like Switzerland, Turkey, or Arab states, and calling for a full ceasefire. The Kremlin responded that Putin was aware but had not yet reviewed the letter in detail, and Putin reiterated he saw no point in meeting now, maintaining the stalemate.
Zelenskyy Proposes Face-to-Face Meeting in Open Letter to Putin
No meeting before 2027 dips to 78%3%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy published a rare, direct open letter to Vladimir Putin proposing a face-to-face meeting in a neutral third country like Switzerland, Turkey, or an Arab state to negotiate an end to the war.
Trump supports Zelenskyy’s plan for direct talks with Putin, urges compromises
US President Trump welcomed Zelenskyy’s proposal for a meeting with Putin and emphasized the need for compromises from both sides, providing diplomatic encouragement but no concrete meeting plans.
Zelenskyy’s open letter offers meeting in Switzerland, Turkey or an Arab state
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 86%5%
Zelenskyy published an open letter proposing a direct meeting and naming Switzerland, Turkey and Arab states as possible venues. The market’s probability of a meeting collapsed, sending the “No meeting before 2027” price sharply higher to 86 % by 10 Jun 2026.
Trump supports Zelenskyy’s proposal for direct talks with Putin to end war
No meeting before 2027 rises to 83%1%
US President Trump expressed support for a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting, claiming credit for bringing them closer to talks, but acknowledged compromises were needed, which had limited effect on market prices given Putin’s rejection.
Putin rejects Zelenskyy’s call for immediate face-to-face talks, sees 'no point' now
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%3%
Putin publicly dismissed the idea of meeting Zelenskyy at this time, stating the only point would be for Ukraine to stop advancing Russian forces. This hardened market sentiment toward no meeting before 2027, pushing that outcome's price higher.
Zelenskyy Publishes Open Letter to Putin Proposing Face-to-Face Meeting
No meeting before 2027 rises to 83%2%
Zelenskyy sent a direct open letter to Putin proposing a face-to-face meeting in a neutral third country, specifically suggesting Switzerland, Turkey, or Arab states.
Zelenskyy Publishes Scathing Open Letter to Putin Proposing Face-to-Face Summit
Zelenskyy sent a direct open letter proposing a face-to-face meeting in a neutral country like Switzerland, Turkey, or an Arab state, while simultaneously taunting Putin over his age and military setbacks.
Zelenskyy’s open letter proposes meeting in Switzerland, Turkey or Arab state
No meeting before 2027 rises to 84%3%
Zelenskyy published an open letter proposing a meeting in Switzerland, Turkey or an Arab state. The market’s “No meeting” probability spiked as analysts deemed the proposal unlikely to be accepted, pushing the price to a new high of 84 %.
Zelenskyy sends open letter to Putin proposing face-to-face meeting in neutral country
Zelenskyy published an open letter directly to Putin proposing a meeting in a neutral third country like Switzerland, Turkey, or an Arab state, offering a full ceasefire during negotiations.
Putin dismisses Zelenskyy’s invitation at NATO press conference
No meeting before 2027 rises to 84%3%
At a NATO press conference Putin mocked Zelenskyy’s earlier invitation and again ruled out meeting, reinforcing the market’s “No meeting” trajectory near the end of the analysis window.
Zelenskyy reiterates readiness for direct talks with Putin to end the war
During a press conference with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Zelenskyy emphasized his willingness to hold direct talks with Putin in any format rather than waiting for other global conflicts to resolve.
Trump says a Zelenskyy‑Putin meeting would be great as leaders meet in Kyiv
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 86%6%
During a joint news conference with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Zelenskyy reiterated his call for a direct meeting, while Trump publicly said a meeting would be “great”. The market’s confidence in a meeting dipped, pushing the “No meeting” price higher.
Ukrainian drones strike St. Petersburg oil terminal ahead of Putin visit
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%1%
Ukraine launched drone attacks on critical infrastructure in St. Petersburg, Russia, including an oil terminal and naval base, demonstrating Ukraine's capability to strike deep into Russian territory, which increased tensions ahead of proposed peace talks.
Kremlin says Putin will meet Zelenskyy only in Moscow to sign agreements
Peskov reiterated that any meeting would be limited to Moscow and only for signing already‑agreed terms, cementing the expectation that no neutral‑ground meeting will occur before 2027.
Zelenskyy urges diplomatic talks before winter to pressure Putin
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%2%
Zelenskyy emphasized the need to find a diplomatic way to sit and speak before winter, depending on increased pressure on Putin, signaling ongoing efforts but no imminent meeting, supporting the high market probability of no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy urges U.S. to pressure Putin for a pre‑winter summit
US rises to 3%1%
In a CBS interview Zelenskyy emphasized the need for a U.S.‑backed diplomatic push before winter, mentioning possible U.S. venues and reinforcing the “US” outcome as a possible host for a future summit.
Putin visits Kazakhstan amid regional diplomacy and CSTO meetings
Kazakhstan rises to 2%1%
Putin's state visit to Kazakhstan and participation in regional security meetings underscored Russia's focus on Eurasian alliances rather than direct peace talks with Ukraine. This maintained low market interest in Kazakhstan as a meeting venue and reinforced the dominance of no meeting before 2027.
Putin visits Kazakhstan amid talks on regional alliances and war status
Putin attended a summit in Kazakhstan, emphasizing Russia's strategic ties in the region but offering no indication of imminent talks with Zelenskyy. This reinforced the low market price for Kazakhstan as a meeting venue and the overall low likelihood of a meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy warns of limited window for diplomatic breakthrough before winter
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%2%
Zelenskyy emphasized a critical six-month window to seize battlefield initiative and strengthen his hand for peace talks, highlighting the urgency of diplomatic efforts and the need for international pressure on Russia, sustaining market belief in a meeting but with timing uncertainty.
Zelenskyy meets Belarus opposition leader Tsikhanouskaya in Kyiv
Zelenskyy met Belarusian opposition leader Tsikhanouskaya in Kyiv, signalling increased attention on Belarus as a possible venue, which lifted the “Belarus” probability modestly.
Zelenskyy appeals to US for missile defense amid ongoing conflict
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%2%
Zelenskyy sent a letter to US President Trump requesting missile defense systems to counter Russian missile attacks, signaling ongoing conflict and reducing likelihood of imminent peace talks or meetings, supporting the market's high probability of no meeting before 2027.
Putin and Lukashenko hold joint nuclear‑drill video call
Belarus rises to 1%1%
A joint video‑call between Putin and Belarusian leader Lukashenko on nuclear drills highlighted Belarus’s deepening involvement with Russia, nudging the Belarus outcome upward from 0 % to 1 % as traders reassessed the likelihood of a meeting on Belarusian soil.
Roman Abramovich secretly meets Zelenskyy in Kyiv to deliver meeting proposal to Putin
On May 21, 2026, Roman Abramovich flew to Kyiv and met with Zelenskyy, acting as an intermediary to convey Zelenskyy's proposal for a personal meeting with Putin. This event raised market speculation about a possible meeting but did not lead to immediate progress.
Putin visits China, strengthening Russia-China ties amid Ukraine war
Putin's state visit to China reaffirmed the strategic partnership between the two countries, with no indication of willingness to meet Zelenskyy, reinforcing Russia's stance on the conflict and limiting prospects for a meeting in China.
Putin visits China, strengthens strategic partnership
Putin's visit to China reinforced Russia's diplomatic ties with China but did not advance prospects for a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting, maintaining low market interest in China as a meeting venue.
Zelenskyy publicly invites Putin to Kyiv for talks, rejects Moscow and Belarus
No meeting before 2027 rises to 86%2%
Zelenskyy issued a bold public invitation to Putin to meet in Kyiv, challenging him to come if he dares, while firmly rejecting Moscow and Belarus as venues. This hardened the market's view that a meeting in Russia or Belarus is unlikely and increased the probability of no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan after US-led talks stall
No meeting before 2027 rises to 78%4%
During a visit to Azerbaijan, Zelenskyy stated readiness to meet Putin there, signaling openness to neutral venues other than Russia or Belarus, but no meeting was scheduled, keeping market skepticism high.
Kremlin clarifies no concrete plan to end war despite Putin's remarks
No meeting before 2027 dips to 75%3%
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov tempered expectations by stating there was no concrete plan to end the war yet and that a great deal of preparatory work remained before any face-to-face meeting could occur.
Analysts cite Qatar and UAE as possible venues after Putin’s third‑country offer
Qatar / UAE rises to 4%1%
Following Putin’s openness to a third‑country meeting, speculation surfaced that the Gulf states (Qatar/UAE) could act as hosts. Traders nudged the “Qatar / UAE” outcome up from 3 % to 4 % (price before = 3 %, after = 4 %).
Kremlin insists Putin will meet Zelenskyy only after final peace deal is completed
No meeting before 2027 drops to 75%8%
The Kremlin clarified that Putin's meeting with Zelenskyy would only occur to finalize a comprehensive peace agreement, underscoring Moscow's position that no summit will happen without a concluded deal, which tempered market optimism about an early meeting.
Kremlin says Putin will meet Zelenskyy only after peace deal finalized
No meeting before 2027 rises to 79%4%
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Putin is prepared to meet Zelenskyy only after all major terms of a Ukraine settlement are finalized, reinforcing the market's dominant expectation of no meeting before 2027 without a comprehensive agreement.
Kremlin says no specifics on ending Ukraine war despite Putin’s words
No meeting before 2027 dips to 75%4%
The Kremlin clarified that there were no concrete plans for a peace summit, reinforcing uncertainty about any imminent meeting. This prompted a further dip in the “No meeting before 2027” probability (from 79 % to 75 %) and a modest rise in the “Turkey” outcome (from 5 % to 5 %).
Zelenskyy confirms Putin is finally ready for real meetings, format needed
No meeting before 2027 rises to 79%4%
Zelenskyy stated that Putin is finally ready for real meetings and that a format must be found to bring the war to an end. This statement raised hopes for a meeting but also emphasized the need for agreement on conditions, maintaining market uncertainty.
Zelenskyy confirms Putin is ready for real meetings, but format must be found
Turkey rises to 5%2%
Zelenskyy stated that Putin is finally ready for real meetings and that Ukraine has long been ready, but a format for the meeting must be agreed upon. This reinforced market expectations of a meeting but with uncertainty on location and timing.
Putin says he is open to meeting Zelenskyy outside Russia
Putin publicly announced willingness to meet Zelenskyy in a third country once a lasting peace deal was reached, the first such statement. The news increased speculation that a meeting could occur outside Russia, nudging the “US” and “Qatar / UAE” odds upward while slightly denting the “No meeting” price.
Putin suggests his war on Ukraine is ending and he could meet Zelensky abroad
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%3%
Putin reiterated willingness to meet Zelensky outside Russia, reinforcing that any meeting would require a comprehensive accord, which further dampened short‑term expectations and kept the “No meeting” price near its peak.
Putin says meeting possible only after comprehensive accord
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%3%
Putin reiterated that any meeting would only occur after a comprehensive peace accord, reaffirming the lack of a near‑term encounter and reinforcing the market’s “No meeting” trajectory.
Zelenskyy: Putin finally says he is ready for real meetings
Zelenskyy’s May 10 address stressed that Putin had finally signaled readiness for “real meetings”, but the same speech emphasised the requirement of a final framework, keeping the market weighted toward “No meeting”.
Putin reiterates meeting Zelenskyy only to finalize peace agreement
No meeting before 2027 dips to 73%1%
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov and Putin himself emphasized that any meeting with Zelenskyy would be solely to finalize a peace treaty, not for preliminary talks, maintaining Russia's firm precondition and limiting chances of an early summit.
Zelenskyy confirms Putin ready for real meetings, format to be found
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%1%
Zelenskyy stated Putin is finally ready for real meetings, acknowledging Ukraine's push for talks and readiness to meet in any country except Russia or Belarus. This reinforced the possibility of a meeting but underscored the need to finalize format and conditions, keeping market cautious.
Zelenskyy says Putin finally ready for real meetings, but format needed
Zelenskyy stated that Putin is finally ready for real meetings and that Ukraine has long been ready, but a format for the meeting must be found. This indicated progress in willingness but no confirmed meeting, supporting the market's high probability of no meeting before 2027.
Putin signals willingness to meet Zelenskyy in third country if peace deal reached
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 84%5%
Putin suggested the war might be ending and expressed openness to meeting Zelenskyy in a neutral third country to endorse a comprehensive peace accord. This was the first indication Putin might consider venues outside Russia, briefly raising hopes for a meeting in places like Switzerland or Arab states.
Zelenskyy welcomes Putin's willingness to meet, says format must be found
No meeting before 2027 rises to 74%1%
In his evening address, Zelenskyy noted that Putin finally expressed readiness for real meetings outside Russia, stating that Ukraine has long been ready and a suitable format must now be established.
Putin suggests war may be ending, open to meeting in third country if peace deal reached
Putin indicated willingness to meet Zelenskyy in a neutral country only if a comprehensive peace agreement was finalized, signaling conditional openness but no immediate meeting plans, affecting market confidence.
Putin states some US peace proposals are unacceptable, signaling challenges ahead
Russia rises to 4%3%
Putin publicly stated that certain points in the US peace plan are unacceptable, underscoring the difficulties in reaching a deal and contributing to a decline in the market's confidence in a meeting before 2027, while slightly increasing interest in Russia and the US as meeting venues.
Zelenskyy confirms Putin is ready for real meetings, format to be found
No meeting before 2027 dips to 81%2%
Zelenskyy stated that Putin is finally ready for real meetings and that Ukraine has long been ready, but the format and venue still need to be agreed upon, maintaining market uncertainty about timing and location.
Zelenskyy confirms readiness for real meetings, insists on venue outside Russia and Belarus
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%2%
Zelenskyy stated readiness for real meetings with Putin but rejected Russia and Belarus as venues, reinforcing market view that a meeting before 2027 is unlikely without a breakthrough.
Putin for first time open to meeting Zelenskyy outside Russia after peace deal
No meeting before 2027 dips to 83%2%
Putin publicly stated willingness to meet Zelenskyy in a third country once a lasting peace agreement is reached, marking a significant shift from previous refusals. This tempered market optimism, as the meeting was conditioned on finalized agreements, limiting near-term prospects.
Putin says he will meet Zelenskyy in a third country if peace deal is finalised
Russia dips to 1%1%
For the first time Putin publicly said he was willing to meet Zelenskyy in a third country once a peace deal was reached, lifting the “Russia” barrier and boosting the probability of a meeting in a location other than Russia, which lifted the “Qatar / UAE” and “US” odds as well.
Putin States Readiness for Real Meetings but Demands Zelenskyy Come to Moscow
No meeting before 2027 drops to 76%7%
Putin indicated he was open to face-to-face talks but insisted they must take place in Moscow or only in a third country once a final peace treaty is ready to be signed, which Ukraine rejected.
Putin open to meeting Zelenskyy outside Russia if peace deal reached
No meeting before 2027 dips to 81%2%
For the first time, on May 9, 2026, Putin expressed willingness to meet Zelenskyy in a third country to endorse a comprehensive peace accord, signaling a potential shift but contingent on a finalized deal, keeping direct meeting prospects uncertain.
Putin says open to meeting Zelenskyy outside Russia once lasting deal agreed
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%1%
For the first time, Putin publicly stated willingness to meet Zelenskyy in a third country after a comprehensive peace deal is reached, indicating a conditional openness but no immediate meeting.
Putin signals openness to meeting Zelenskyy outside Russia after peace deal
Turkey rises to 5%2%
For the first time, Putin stated he would meet Zelenskyy in a third country once a lasting peace agreement is reached, marking a shift from previous positions and slightly increasing market confidence in a meeting occurring outside Russia or Belarus.
Putin Expresses Openness to Meeting Zelenskyy in a Third Country Upon Lasting Deal
No meeting before 2027 drops to 75%8%
Russian President Vladimir Putin changed his tone slightly, stating for the first time that he would be open to meeting Zelenskyy in a neutral third country, provided a long-term peace agreement is finalized first.
Putin signals willingness to meet Zelenskyy outside Russia after peace deal
No meeting before 2027 rises to 84%1%
For the first time, Putin publicly stated he would meet Zelenskyy in a third country once a lasting peace agreement is reached, marking a significant shift from previous positions and fueling market speculation about a possible meeting venue outside Russia.
Putin says he’ll meet Zelenskyy in a third nation after a lasting deal is struck
Qatar / UAE rises to 5%3%
During a televised interview, Putin said for the first time he would consider meeting Zelenskyy in a third country once a “lasting” deal was reached. The market momentarily shifted toward the “Qatar / UAE” and “Saudi Arabia” options, though the price rise was modest.
Putin says he’s open to meeting Zelenskyy outside Russia
Russia dips to 0%2%
Putin announced he would be willing to meet Zelenskyy in a third country, but only after a final peace treaty is signed. The shift signalled that a meeting in Russia was no longer on the table, driving the “Russia” outcome down from 2 % to 0 % and the “No meeting before 2027” probability down from 85 % to 79 %.
Putin signals openness to meeting Zelenskyy outside Russia after peace deal
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%2%
For the first time, Putin publicly stated willingness to meet Zelenskyy in a third country once a lasting peace agreement is reached, marking a shift from previous refusals. This increased market confidence in a future meeting but only after final agreements, sustaining high odds for no meeting before 2027 in the short term.
Putin signals openness to meet Zelenskyy in third country after peace deal
No meeting before 2027 dips to 81%2%
For the first time, Putin publicly stated willingness to meet Zelenskyy outside Russia once a long-term peace deal is reached, suggesting a meeting in a neutral country but only as a final step. This tempered market expectations for an imminent meeting and supported the 'No meeting before 2027' outcome.
Putin expresses willingness to meet Zelenskyy outside Russia after peace deal
Qatar / UAE rises to 6%3%
For the first time, Putin said he is open to meeting Zelenskyy in a third country once a lasting peace agreement is reached, marking a significant shift in his stance and raising hopes for a future summit outside Russia.
Putin says he’s open to meeting Zelenskyy outside Russia
No meeting before 2027 rises to 3%2%
For the first time Putin said he would be open to meeting Zelenskyy in a third country, briefly reviving hopes for a neutral‑site summit and causing a modest rise in the “Switzerland”, “Qatar / UAE” and “Saudi Arabia” odds.
Putin says he is open to meeting Zelenskyy in a third country once a peace deal is reached
No meeting before 2027 drops to 74%9%
For the first time, Vladimir Putin expressed openness to meeting Zelenskyy outside of Russia, provided a final peace treaty has already been agreed upon.
Trump Announces Three-Day Ceasefire and Prisoner Swap Between Russia and Ukraine
US rises to 5%3%
U.S. President Donald Trump brokered a temporary three-day ceasefire and a major prisoner exchange, which briefly raised the probability of the U.S. hosting a future peace summit.
Ukraine confirms three-day ceasefire with Russia amid US mediation
No meeting before 2027 dips to 75%3%
Zelenskyy confirmed a three-day ceasefire arranged with Russia as part of US-led efforts, but the ceasefire was short-lived and did not lead to a meeting, reflecting ongoing tensions and stalled negotiations.
Trump announces three-day ceasefire in Russia-Ukraine war
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 85%7%
US President Donald Trump announced a three-day ceasefire and prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine, mediated by the US, which was seen as a diplomatic effort to reduce hostilities and possibly pave the way for future talks.
Putin meets US envoys in Moscow to discuss peace proposals
Russia rises to 3%2%
Russian President Putin held marathon talks with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Moscow to discuss peace proposals, indicating ongoing diplomatic engagement but also highlighting unresolved issues, which influenced market prices for Russia and the US as potential meeting locations.
Russian drone strikes cause major blackouts in Ukraine amid ongoing peace talks
No meeting before 2027 dips to 79%4%
Russian drone strikes on Ukrainian power grids caused blackouts during ongoing US-led peace talks, highlighting continued conflict and complicating prospects for a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting. This sustained market odds favoring no meeting before 2027.
Kremlin reiterates Putin ready to meet Zelenskyy only for finalizing agreements
No meeting before 2027 dips to 79%4%
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov emphasized that Putin is ready to meet Zelenskyy in Moscow only if the meeting is productive and aimed at finalizing agreements, limiting chances of a meeting without prior progress. This reinforced market belief in no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy suggests Azerbaijan as possible meeting venue with Putin
No meeting before 2027 dips to 79%4%
On May 4, 2026, Zelenskyy indicated readiness to meet Putin in Azerbaijan after US-led talks stalled, broadening potential neutral venues for a summit. This statement reflected ongoing search for acceptable meeting locations but no confirmed meeting occurred.
Zelenskyy calls for diplomatic solution before winter amid battlefield shifts
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%1%
Zelenskyy emphasized the need for diplomatic talks before winter as Russia lost battlefield initiative, urging increased pressure on Putin. This reinforced market expectations that no meeting would occur soon without significant breakthroughs.
Second day of peace talks held in Abu Dhabi amid Russian attacks on Ukraine
Negotiators from Ukraine, Russia, and the US met in Abu Dhabi for a second day of talks aimed at ending the war, despite ongoing Russian attacks. This event supported the possibility of a meeting in Qatar/UAE and increased market interest in diplomatic venues.
Zelenskyy Declares Readiness to Meet Putin in Azerbaijan Following Stalled US Talks
No meeting before 2027 dips to 83%2%
During a visit to Azerbaijan, Zelenskyy stated he was willing to meet Putin in Baku, emphasizing his openness to neutral third-country venues while ruling out Russia or Belarus.
Zelenskyy says he is ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan
During a visit to Azerbaijan, Zelenskyy said he was ready to meet Putin there, bringing attention to Azerbaijan as a possible neutral venue. The price of “Kazakhstan” (the only Central‑Asian option) fell to 1 % as traders dismissed it.
Zelenskyy expresses readiness to meet Putin in Azerbaijan amid stalled talks
Qatar / UAE rises to 4%1%
During a visit to Azerbaijan, Zelenskyy stated he is ready to meet Putin there, emphasizing willingness to meet in any country except Russia or Belarus. This statement increased market interest in the Qatar/UAE option as a proxy for Middle Eastern venues.
Zelensky says he is ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan
Turkey rises to 5%2%
Zelensky visited Azerbaijan and said he was ready to meet Putin there, highlighting a new possible venue but still no concrete arrangement, keeping the market tilted toward “No meeting”.
Zelenskyy says ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan after stalled US talks
No meeting before 2027 dips to 75%4%
During a visit to Azerbaijan, Zelenskyy expressed readiness to meet Putin there, excluding Russia and Belarus as venues, signaling openness to neutral ground meetings but reflecting ongoing diplomatic impasse and no confirmed meeting.
Zelenskyy signals readiness to meet Putin in Azerbaijan after stalled talks
No meeting before 2027 dips to 81%1%
During a visit to Azerbaijan, Zelenskyy stated he is ready to meet Putin in any country except Russia or Belarus, highlighting Azerbaijan as a potential venue and signaling flexibility to advance peace talks.
Zelenskyy expresses readiness to meet Putin in Azerbaijan
No meeting before 2027 rises to 83%1%
During a visit to the South Caucasus, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated he would be willing to meet Vladimir Putin in Azerbaijan, expanding the list of potential neutral host countries.
Zelenskyy says ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan after US-led talks stall
Zelenskyy expressed readiness to meet Putin in Azerbaijan, signaling flexibility on venue and a push to revive stalled diplomacy, supporting market interest in Turkey and regional venues.
Zelenskyy says he is ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan
Zelenskyy publicly stated he was ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan, flagging a potential Caucasus venue and thereby increasing attention on neighboring states, which lifted the “Belarus” and “Kazakhstan” odds modestly.
Zelenskyy expresses readiness to meet Putin in Azerbaijan
Turkey rises to 5%2%
During a visit to Azerbaijan, Zelenskyy stated he is ready to meet Putin in any country except Russia or Belarus, signaling openness to a third-country venue and increasing market interest in alternative locations like Turkey and Azerbaijan.
Zelenskyy says he is ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan
US plunges to 2%20%
Zelenskyy announced he was ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan after U.S.–led talks stalled, reinforcing the view that a meeting would most likely occur outside Russia and lowering the US outcome to 2 % while keeping “No meeting before 2027” high.
Zelenskyy ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan after stalled US-led talks
No meeting before 2027 rises to 84%1%
During a visit to Azerbaijan, Zelenskyy expressed readiness to meet Putin there, signaling openness to neutral venues amid stalled US-led diplomatic efforts. This indicated ongoing search for meeting locations but no confirmed meeting, maintaining market preference for no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy says he is ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan
No meeting before 2027 drops to 78%6%
Zelenskyy announced readiness to meet Putin in Azerbaijan, signalling willingness to travel to a neutral venue. The statement kept a slim chance alive for a meeting but overall market sentiment remained dominated by the “No meeting” outcome.
Zelenskyy ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan, excluding Russia and Belarus
Turkey rises to 5%2%
During a visit to Azerbaijan, Zelenskyy stated readiness to meet Putin there, emphasizing refusal to meet in Russia or Belarus due to their roles in the war. This statement highlighted Azerbaijan as a potential venue, but the market impact was limited as no meeting was imminent.
Zelenskyy says he is ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan after US-led talks stall
During a visit to Azerbaijan, Zelenskyy expressed readiness to meet Putin in any country except Russia or Belarus, signaling flexibility on venue and continuing diplomatic efforts amid stalled US-led negotiations.
Zelenskyy announces trilateral peace talks with Russia and US in UAE
Qatar / UAE rises to 3%1%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announced that trilateral talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US would be held in the United Arab Emirates, signaling a diplomatic push that increased market interest in Qatar/UAE and Turkey as potential meeting locations.
Zelensky visits Saudi Arabia, holds ‘very productive’ meeting with Crown Prince
US rises to 3%1%
Zelenskyy’s visit to Saudi Arabia and his “very productive” meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman raised expectations of broader regional mediation, lifting the “US” outcome from 2 % to 3 % and the “Qatar / UAE” outcome from 3 % to 5 % over the next few days.
Ukraine Formally Asks Turkey to Host Zelenskyy-Putin Summit
Turkey rises to 5%3%
Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha announced that Kyiv formally requested Turkey to host a direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin to break the diplomatic deadlock.
Kremlin States Putin Will Only Meet Zelenskyy to Finalize Agreements
No meeting before 2027 rises to 84%3%
In response to Ukraine's request for Turkey to host a summit, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that Putin would only meet Zelenskyy to finalize concrete agreements, dampening hopes for exploratory talks.
Kremlin states Putin ready to meet Zelenskyy only in Moscow to finalize agreements
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 85%10%
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov declared that Putin would only meet Zelenskyy in Moscow and only to finalize agreements already reached, rejecting other venues and preconditions. This hardened stance reduced market confidence in meetings occurring in neutral locations.
Ukraine formally requests Turkey to host Zelenskyy-Putin meeting
Turkey rises to 4%3%
Ukraine officially asked Turkey to help arrange a summit meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, viewing Turkey as a neutral mediator and potential venue, which increased market interest in Turkey as a meeting location.
Ukraine requests Turkey to host Zelenskyy-Putin meeting to revive peace talks
Turkey rises to 5%2%
Ukraine's top diplomat announced that Kyiv has asked Turkey to host a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin to reinvigorate stalled peace negotiations, signaling a preference for a neutral venue outside Russia or Belarus. This raised market interest in Turkey as a potential meeting location but did not lead to immediate progress.
Kremlin says Putin will meet Zelenskyy only in Moscow to finalise agreements
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 84%5%
The Kremlin announced that Putin would only meet Zelenskyy in Moscow and only to finalise agreements, effectively ruling out any neutral‑site summit and suggesting the talks were dead‑locked. This reinforced the market’s move toward the “No meeting” outcome.
Ukraine asks Turkey to host potential Zelenskyy‑Putin summit
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 84%5%
Kyiv formally asked Turkey to host a direct Zelenskyy‑Putin summit, highlighting the difficulty of finding a mutually acceptable venue and underscoring the likelihood that a meeting would not happen soon. The request coincided with a sharp drop in the Turkey outcome and a rise in the “No meeting” probability.
Putin can meet Zelenskyy only to agree final conflict arrangements, Kremlin says
No meeting before 2027 rises to 84%3%
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin would meet Zelenskyy only to finalize a settlement, effectively ruling out a neutral‑venue meeting and pulling the market back toward “No meeting before 2027”.
Kremlin says Putin will only meet Zelenskyy to finalize a prepared conflict agreement
In response to Ukraine's outreach to Turkey, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Putin is ready for a meeting but only to finalize and sign a completed peace agreement, rather than to conduct open-ended negotiations.
Ukraine pushes for Zelenskyy-Putin summit to revive peace talks
Turkey rises to 5%1%
Ukraine publicly advocated for a direct summit between Zelenskyy and Putin to inject momentum into stalled US-led peace efforts, with Turkey proposed as a potential host. This increased market interest in Turkey as a meeting venue but skepticism remained high due to Russia's conditions and ongoing conflict.
Putin will meet Zelenskyy only in Moscow to finalise agreements
No meeting before 2027 rises to 85%1%
Kremlin spokesman Peskov said Putin would only meet Zelenskyy in Moscow and only to finalise conflict arrangements, effectively closing off all neutral‑country options and strengthening the market’s “No meeting” position.
Kremlin states Putin will meet Zelenskyy only to finalize conflict agreements
No meeting before 2027 rises to 80%4%
On April 22, 2026, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Putin would only meet Zelenskyy to finalize peace agreements, signaling that a meeting is unlikely before such agreements are reached. This statement reinforced market confidence in the 'No meeting before 2027' outcome.
Ukraine Asks Turkey to Host Zelenskyy-Putin Summit to Revive Peace Talks
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha announced that Kyiv formally requested Turkey to host a face-to-face meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin to inject new momentum into stalled diplomatic tracks.
Putin reiterates meeting Zelenskyy only after final peace deal reached
No meeting before 2027 rises to 80%4%
Putin publicly stated on April 22, 2026, that a meeting with Zelenskyy would only occur as a final step to sign a peace treaty, possibly in a third country. This reinforced market expectations that no meeting would happen before 2027.
Kremlin says Putin can meet Zelenskyy only to finalize conflict arrangements
No meeting before 2027 rises to 85%3%
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated Putin would only meet Zelenskyy to finalize agreements, not for broader talks, limiting chances of a meaningful summit and reinforcing market expectations of no meeting.
Ukraine pushes for Zelenskyy-Putin summit to revive stalled peace talks
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 83%14%
Ukraine's top diplomat confirmed Kyiv's support for a face-to-face meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin to inject momentum into US-led peace efforts, explicitly ruling out Minsk and Belarus as venues, which affected market prices for Belarus and Turkey negatively.
Kremlin spokesman states Putin-Zelenskyy meeting only for finalizing conflict agreements
Peskov clarified that Putin would only meet Zelenskyy for the purpose of finalizing agreements on the conflict, signaling a significant shift in Russian diplomatic posture and reducing expectations for a meeting.
Ukraine pushes for direct Zelenskyy-Putin summit to revive peace talks
No meeting before 2027 dips to 81%3%
Ukraine's top diplomat advocated for a face-to-face summit between Zelenskyy and Putin to inject momentum into stalled US-led peace efforts. This renewed push came amid increased Ukrainian attacks and ongoing refusal by Putin to accept unconditional ceasefire.
Kremlin says Putin will meet Zelenskyy only to finalize agreements in Moscow
Russia dips to 1%1%
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated Putin would only meet Zelenskyy in Moscow to finalize agreements, rejecting other venues. This stance reduced market confidence in meetings outside Russia and increased skepticism about a meeting before 2027.
Kremlin states Putin will meet Zelenskyy only to finalize conflict agreements
Russia dips to 1%1%
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin is ready to meet Zelenskyy but only to finalize agreements on the conflict, emphasizing Moscow's position that any meeting must have a clear goal. This limited the market's optimism about a meeting in Russia or Belarus.
Kremlin states Putin ready to meet Zelenskyy only in Moscow to finalize agreements
Turkey dips to 2%1%
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov declared Putin's willingness to meet Zelenskyy but only in Moscow and only to finalize already reached agreements, limiting the possibility of a neutral venue meeting and reducing market prices for other locations.
Kremlin says Putin ready to meet Zelenskyy only in Moscow to finalize agreements
No meeting before 2027 rises to 84%1%
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated Putin is willing to meet Zelenskyy but only in Moscow and solely to finalize conflict agreements. This rigid stance contrasted with Zelenskyy's refusal to meet in Russia, reinforcing the stalemate and increasing market confidence in no meeting before 2027.
Kremlin says Putin can meet Zelenskyy only to finalize conflict arrangements
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Putin is ready to meet Zelenskyy only to agree on final conflict arrangements, emphasizing a narrow scope for any meeting and limiting market optimism for broader talks.
Kremlin states Putin ready to meet Zelenskyy only in Moscow to finalize agreements
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Putin is ready to meet Zelenskyy only in Moscow and only to finalize conflict arrangements, emphasizing the limited scope and location of any potential meeting. This hardened stance diminished market expectations for meetings outside Russia and increased the likelihood of no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy demands direct talks with Putin as Istanbul peace summit nears
Ahead of a proposed peace summit in Istanbul, Zelenskyy insisted he would only attend if Putin is present, emphasizing the need for genuine negotiations. The Kremlin had not confirmed Putin's attendance, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about a meeting.
Zelenskyy rules out Russia and Belarus as venues for talks
Russia dips to 1%1%
Zelenskyy publicly stated that peace negotiations with Putin cannot be held in Russia or Belarus, citing their roles as aggressors. This sharply reduced market confidence in Russia and Belarus as meeting venues, pushing their prices near zero.
Zelenskyy meets European leaders in London to discuss US peace plan and security
Zelenskyy met with British, French, and German leaders in London to coordinate on the US peace plan and security guarantees, showing European support but no direct meeting with Putin. This maintained market confidence in no meeting before 2027.
Ukraine's top aide sees progress toward peace deal with Russia
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 83%5%
Kyrylo Budanov, head of the President's Office and key Ukrainian negotiator, expressed optimism about nearing a peace deal with Russia, noting that both sides were moving away from maximalist positions and that a resolution may not take long to achieve.
Yemen’s Southern Transitional Council announces dissolution after leader flees to UAE
The UAE-backed separatist Southern Transitional Council in Yemen announced its dissolution following internal divisions and regional pressure, with its leader fleeing to the UAE. This development further strained Saudi-UAE relations and reduced the chances of the UAE hosting a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin.
Putin Announces Easter Ceasefire Following Weeks of Proposals from Kyiv
No meeting before 2027 dips to 83%1%
Vladimir Putin announced a brief ceasefire for the Orthodox Easter weekend, marking a rare moment of mutual agreement, though structural barriers to a direct summit remained high.
Zelenskyy Expresses Readiness to Meet Putin in Istanbul for Peace Talks
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 84%8%
Reports emerged that Zelenskyy is willing to hold direct peace talks with Vladimir Putin in Istanbul, Turkey, in any format to resolve the conflict.
Zelenskyy ready to meet Putin in Istanbul in any format
Turkey rises to 3%1%
Zelenskyy publicly stated readiness to hold peace talks with Putin in Istanbul, indicating flexibility on location except Moscow or Belarus. This reinforced Turkey as a plausible venue but did not lead to immediate meeting arrangements.
Zelenskyy Meets Erdogan in Istanbul and Signals Readiness to Meet Putin in Turkey
Turkey dips to 2%1%
Zelenskyy unexpectedly traveled to Istanbul to meet Turkish President Erdogan, who offered Turkey as a platform for peace talks. Zelenskyy expressed readiness to meet Putin there, though no formal summit was scheduled.
Zelenskyy signs defence deals with UAE and Qatar on Gulf tour
Qatar / UAE rises to 5%2%
Zelenskyy’s Gulf tour culminated in defence‑cooperation agreements with the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. The high‑profile visits raised expectations that the Middle East could serve as a meeting venue, lifting the “Qatar / UAE” price while the “No meeting” price fell slightly.
Zelenskyy Signs Air Defense Agreements with Qatar and UAE on Gulf Tour
Zelenskyy expanded his diplomatic outreach in the Middle East by securing defense partnerships with Qatar and the UAE, which briefly increased speculation about these Arab states hosting future peace negotiations.
Zelenskyy visits Qatar, signs defense agreement amid Gulf tour
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy visited Qatar and other Gulf countries to discuss security cooperation and countering Iranian drones, signaling diplomatic outreach but no direct talks with Russia. This bolstered interest in Gulf states as potential meeting venues but did not lead to immediate talks.
Zelenskyy signs 10‑year defence pact in Qatar and meets UAE president
Qatar / UAE rises to 5%3%
Zelenskyy’s state visit to Doha and a defence‑cooperation agreement with Qatar (followed by a stop in the UAE) created a concrete link between the Ukrainian president and the Gulf, which nudged the “Qatar / UAE” option upward in the market.
Zelenskyy Visits UAE and Qatar to Secure Defense Partnerships on Gulf Tour
Zelenskyy expanded his Middle East tour to the UAE and Qatar, signing defense agreements and discussing airspace protection, while noting that trilateral peace talks were delayed due to US focus on the Middle East.
Zelenskyy Signs Defense Cooperation Agreements with UAE and Qatar on Gulf Tour
Qatar / UAE dips to 2%1%
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed historic 10-year defense cooperation agreements with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, signaling active diplomatic engagement with potential Arab state mediators.
Ukraine and Saudi Arabia Sign Defense Cooperation Agreement in Jeddah
Saudi Arabia jumps to 16%14%
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited Saudi Arabia and signed a defense cooperation pact to share drone-interception expertise, highlighting the Gulf nation's growing role as a strategic partner and potential mediator.
Zelenskyy Arrives in Saudi Arabia to Sign Defense Deal and Seek Strategic Backing
Zelenskyy made an unannounced visit to Saudi Arabia to sign a defense cooperation agreement and meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, leveraging Ukraine's drone-countering expertise to secure regional support.
Zelenskyy signs defence cooperation deal in Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia dips to 1%1%
Zelenskyy’s surprise visit to Saudi Arabia and the signing of a defence cooperation pact shifted market sentiment away from the Gulf as a meeting venue, pushing the Saudi Arabia outcome down from 2 % to 1 %. The focus moved toward other regions.
Zelenskyy visits Saudi Arabia for important meetings amid ongoing peace efforts
No meeting before 2027 rises to 77%1%
Zelenskyy traveled to Saudi Arabia for significant meetings related to security and peace efforts. This visit did not lead to a direct meeting with Putin, and the market price for Saudi Arabia as a meeting location remained very low, reinforcing the 'No meeting before 2027' outcome.
Zelenskyy visits Saudi Arabia, signs defense cooperation agreements with Gulf states
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 81%5%
Zelenskyy made unannounced visits to Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar, signing historic defense cooperation agreements and offering Ukraine's expertise against Iranian drones. This diplomatic offensive aimed to strengthen ties and secure support, but did not directly advance Zelenskyy-Putin meeting prospects, keeping "No meeting before 2027" probability high.
US Links Security Guarantees to Ukraine Giving Up Donbas, Postponing Trilateral Talks
No meeting before 2027 dips to 76%1%
Zelenskyy revealed that the US is linking security guarantees to territorial concessions in Donbas, and noted that the fourth round of trilateral talks was postponed due to the Middle East conflict.
Zelenskyy Claims US Ties Security Guarantees to Ukraine Ceding Donbas Region
President Zelenskyy stated that the US was conditioning post-war security guarantees on Ukraine ceding the Russian-occupied Donbas region, highlighting deep diplomatic friction and complicating prospects for direct leader-level peace talks.
Zelenskyy publicly invites Putin to Kyiv for peace talks, rejects Moscow meeting
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 76%7%
On March 21, 2026, Zelenskyy publicly challenged Putin to meet in Kyiv "if he dares," firmly rejecting Moscow or Belarus as venues. This bold stance, amid ongoing US-mediated talks and Kremlin insistence on Moscow, highlighted the stalemate and contributed to the market's high probability for no meeting before 2027.
US-mediated peace talks continue without direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting
No meeting before 2027 dips to 76%2%
Ongoing US-mediated talks in Geneva and Abu Dhabi involved Ukrainian and Russian officials but no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin. The persistence of indirect negotiations and lack of breakthrough kept the market favoring no meeting before 2027.
No breakthrough in Geneva talks between Russia and Ukraine, both sides say
The Geneva talks ended with no breakthrough and persistent political and military differences, including over territory, reducing expectations for a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting and reinforcing the market's preference for no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy Says Ukraine Ready for Peace Talks but Awaits US and Russia Agreement on Venue
President Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine is ready for the next round of trilateral peace talks, but the timing and location depend on Washington and Moscow agreeing to meet.
Turkey offers to host next round of Ukraine-Russia-US peace talks
Turkey rises to 4%1%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy confirmed that Turkey was ready to host the next round of trilateral peace talks involving Kyiv, Moscow, and Washington, signaling Turkey's role as a potential neutral venue for negotiations.
Zelenskyy confirms trilateral talks planned in Abu Dhabi amid Middle East escalation
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%1%
Despite regional security concerns, Zelenskyy confirmed trilateral talks with the US and Russia planned in Abu Dhabi, but noted uncertainty about the venue. This maintained market skepticism about a direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting before 2027.
Zelenskiy holds talks with UAE, Qatar leaders
Qatar / UAE plunges to 3%46%
Zelenskyy held a series of defence‑cooperation talks in the Gulf, meeting leaders of the UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. The visits were framed around anti‑drone cooperation, moving market odds away from Qatar/UAE and Saudi Arabia (each falling to ~3 %).
Russia threatens to halt peace talks unless Ukraine cedes territory
No meeting before 2027 dips to 77%1%
Reports indicated Russia would likely walk away from peace talks if Ukraine did not concede territory, signaling a hardening stance and reducing chances of a meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy before 2027.
Budanov States Russia Has Not Agreed to Zelenskyy-Putin Summit
No meeting before 2027 rises to 78%3%
Ukraine's intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov confirmed that Russia has refused to agree to a direct summit between Zelenskyy and Putin, which had been floated by US envoys.
Zelenskyy states Russia peace talks depend on Middle East situation, no Putin summit agreed
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%4%
Zelenskyy indicated that peace talks with Russia depend on the Middle East situation and confirmed Russia had not agreed to a summit with Putin, as floated by US envoy Steve Witkoff. This reinforced the improbability of a direct meeting before 2027, supporting the market's strong tilt toward 'No meeting before 2027'.
Saudi Arabia bombs Yemen port city over UAE weapons shipment to separatists
Saudi Arabia plunges to 1%48%
Saudi Arabia bombed Yemen’s Mukalla port city after a weapons shipment from the UAE to separatist forces, escalating regional tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. This conflict distracted regional powers and complicated diplomatic efforts, indirectly reducing the likelihood of a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting in Saudi Arabia or UAE.
Ukraine says Russia has not agreed to summit between Zelenskyy and Putin
No meeting before 2027 drops to 69%8%
Ukraine’s intelligence chief stated Russia had not agreed to a summit between Zelenskyy and Putin, which had been proposed by US envoy Steve Witkoff. This official confirmation of Russia’s reluctance further diminished chances of a meeting before 2027.
Russia Refuses Proposed Zelenskyy-Putin Summit
No meeting before 2027 rises to 78%4%
Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov revealed that Russia had not agreed to a bilateral summit between the two leaders, driving 'No meeting before 2027' odds higher.
Zelenskyy says Russia peace talks depend on Middle East situation, no Putin meeting agreed
Zelenskyy stated that Russia had not agreed to a summit with Putin, which had been proposed earlier. The ongoing geopolitical complications and lack of agreement on a meeting location kept the market confident that no meeting would happen before 2027.
Zelenskyy expects next Russia meeting in Abu Dhabi in early March
No meeting before 2027 rises to 80%4%
Zelenskyy indicated a potential trilateral meeting involving Russia, Ukraine, and the US in Abu Dhabi, signaling diplomatic progress but no confirmed direct meeting with Putin. This briefly raised hopes but did not significantly shift market prices for a meeting venue.
Zelenskyy expects new peace talks with Russia in Abu Dhabi in March
No meeting before 2027 rises to 78%1%
Zelenskyy announced plans for a new round of peace talks with Russia to be held in Abu Dhabi, emphasizing a trilateral format involving the US. This reinforced the market's view that meetings would occur in neutral locations rather than Russia or Ukraine, further lowering probabilities for those outcomes.
Zelenskyy expects next peace talks with Russia in Abu Dhabi in March
Zelenskyy announced that the next round of peace talks with Russia would likely be held in Abu Dhabi in early March, signaling a preference for a neutral venue and raising hopes for a meeting outside Russia or Ukraine.
Zelenskyy expects peace talks in Abu Dhabi, hints at meeting with Putin
Qatar / UAE jumps to 6%5%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announced that a new round of peace talks was expected in Abu Dhabi in early March, suggesting readiness for a meeting with Putin in a neutral location, which briefly raised market hopes for Qatar/UAE venue.
Zelenskyy expects new round of peace talks in Abu Dhabi with potential leadership meeting
Zelenskyy announced expectations for a new round of peace talks in Abu Dhabi in early March, emphasizing the need to prepare for a leadership-level meeting. Despite this, no direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting was confirmed, sustaining market preference for 'No meeting before 2027'.
Zelenskyy expects next round of peace talks in Abu Dhabi
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 78%5%
Zelenskyy announced that the next round of trilateral talks would likely be held in Abu Dhabi, with no indication that Putin would travel there. The focus on a third‑party venue without a confirmed Russian leader kept the market trending toward “No meeting”.
Zelenskyy expects new peace talks in Abu Dhabi in March
Zelenskyy announced plans for a new round of peace talks in Abu Dhabi, increasing market interest in Qatar/UAE as a meeting location, though actual meeting with Putin remained uncertain.
Zelenskyy expects next Russia‑Ukraine talks to take place in Abu Dhabi
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%3%
Zelenskyy said an upcoming trilateral meeting in Abu Dhabi could lead to a direct leaders‑level talks, suggesting the meeting could be moved to the “leadership level”. The market responded with a brief rise in the “No meeting before 2027” price as the prospect of a direct meeting appeared to improve.
US-mediated talks in Geneva discuss peace, possibility of trilateral meeting
No meeting before 2027 rises to 79%1%
US, Ukraine, and Russia held talks in Geneva focusing on territorial issues and peace proposals, with US President Trump discussing a potential trilateral meeting with Zelenskyy and Putin, but no direct meeting occurred, maintaining market skepticism.
Trump signals possible US‑hosted trilateral talks with Zelenskyy and Putin
US drops to 3%6%
Trump publicly said a trilateral meeting in the United States was being discussed, briefly lifting the “US” odds before they fell again as no concrete invitation materialised.
Lukashenka and Putin schedule Union State meeting for Feb 25 in Moscow
Belarus dips to 1%1%
An announcement that Lukashenka and Putin would meet in Moscow on Feb 25 under the Union State framework further signaled that any Zelensky‑Putin encounter would be unlikely, reinforcing the “No meeting” view and keeping all venue probabilities near the 1 % floor.
Trump calls Zelenskyy, discusses trilateral meeting possibility
US rises to 4%1%
On the eve of US-Ukraine-Russia talks in Geneva, Trump told Zelenskyy he wanted the war to end within a month and discussed a possible trilateral meeting with Putin. This raised market hopes for a meeting in a US or neutral venue but no direct meeting occurred.
Trump calls Zelenskyy, discusses ending war and trilateral meeting possibility
No meeting before 2027 rises to 78%3%
Trump told Zelenskyy he wanted the war to end within a month and discussed a possible trilateral meeting with Putin, but no direct meeting occurred, and skepticism remained high.
Trump tells Zelenskyy he wants war to end within a month, discusses trilateral meeting
Trump told Zelenskyy in a phone call that he wanted the war to end within a month and discussed the possibility of a trilateral meeting between Trump, Zelenskyy, and Putin, raising hopes for a meeting and influencing market expectations.
US envoy to meet Putin in Moscow as Zelenskyy tours Europe for peace talks
No meeting before 2027 dips to 78%3%
On February 24, 2026, US special envoy Steve Witkoff met Putin in Moscow with a preliminary peace plan while Zelenskyy toured Europe for support. The parallel talks underscored ongoing diplomatic efforts but no direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting was arranged, reinforcing market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
US envoy expresses hope for Zelenskyy-Putin meeting soon
Turkey rises to 6%3%
US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff expressed strong belief in a potential Zelenskyy-Putin meeting within weeks, aiming to resolve territorial issues. This raised market optimism briefly but did not translate into an actual meeting, limiting price gains for meeting locations.
Zelenskyy says meeting with Putin could be decisive for ceasefire
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%2%
On February 20, 2026, Zelenskyy stated that a direct meeting with Putin could be decisive for a ceasefire, expressing readiness for such talks but maintaining refusal to meet in Moscow or Belarus. This statement kept hopes alive but did not resolve venue disputes, sustaining market uncertainty.
Zelenskyy expects next peace talks in Abu Dhabi in March
No meeting before 2027 dips to 75%3%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announced that the next round of peace talks with Russia would likely take place in Abu Dhabi in early March, indicating a preference for a neutral location. This raised the possibility of a meeting in the Middle East but no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin was confirmed, keeping the market's confidence in a meeting low.
US, Russia, Ukraine continue peace talks without direct Putin-Zelenskyy meeting
No meeting before 2027 dips to 76%2%
As of February 2026, peace talks mediated by the US continued but no direct meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy occurred, maintaining market skepticism about a near-term meeting and supporting the 'No meeting before 2027' outcome.
US hosts Ukraine-Russia peace talks in Miami with Zelenskyy and Russian delegation
US rises to 25%3%
In February 2026, the US invited Ukraine and Russia for talks likely in Miami, focusing on territorial issues. This raised hopes for a meeting possibly in the US, temporarily increasing market interest in that outcome.
Trilateral peace talks held in Geneva with US mediation
No meeting before 2027 rises to 79%1%
In mid-February 2026, Ukraine, Russia, and the US held trilateral talks in Geneva focusing on territorial issues and security guarantees. Despite progress, Russia remained skeptical and no direct Putin-Zelenskyy meeting was scheduled, maintaining market uncertainty.
US hosts Ukraine-Russia talks in Miami focusing on territory and ceasefire
No meeting before 2027 dips to 74%1%
The US invited Ukraine and Russia for talks in Miami, aiming to end the war by June 2026. However, Russian skepticism and lack of progress kept direct Zelenskyy-Putin meetings unlikely.
US-Ukraine-Russia talks in Geneva with peace proposal focus
Trilateral talks involving US, Ukraine, and Russia took place in Geneva focusing on territorial issues and peace proposals, but skepticism from both Ukraine and Russia limited progress, dampening meeting prospects.
US hosts Ukraine-Russia talks in Geneva focusing on territory and ceasefire
US plunges to 6%16%
In February 2026, the US hosted meetings with Ukraine and Russia in Geneva to discuss territorial issues and peace proposals, including a potential ceasefire. Despite these talks, skepticism from Russia and lack of progress kept market expectations low for a meeting in the US or neutral venues.
Trilateral peace talks in Geneva with US, Ukraine, Russia; no direct meeting
No meeting before 2027 dips to 76%2%
In February 2026, trilateral talks involving the US, Ukraine, and Russia took place in Geneva focusing on territorial issues and ceasefire, but both Zelenskyy and Putin rejected offers to meet in person. This maintained market skepticism about a direct meeting occurring soon.
Trilateral US-Ukraine-Russia talks scheduled in Abu Dhabi
Qatar / UAE drops to 1%5%
Peace talks involving US, Ukraine, and Russia were set for early February in Abu Dhabi, indicating ongoing diplomatic efforts but no direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting, maintaining market uncertainty.
Geneva trilateral talks with Ukraine, Russia, and US advance negotiations but no meeting set
No meeting before 2027 rises to 78%2%
Negotiations in Geneva included security advisers and Putin's aide, marking a new phase in talks. Despite progress, no agreement on a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting location or date was reached, sustaining market doubts about a meeting before 2027.
US-hosted Ukraine-Russia talks in Geneva focus on territory and ceasefire
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 75%5%
Diplomatic talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US took place in Geneva, focusing on territorial issues but failing to produce a direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, maintaining market skepticism about a near-term meeting.
Russian attacks on Ukraine continue amid peace talks in UAE
No meeting before 2027 rises to 80%4%
Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukraine occurred simultaneously with ongoing peace talks in Abu Dhabi involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US, undermining prospects for a direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin and increasing market confidence in no meeting before 2027.
Lukashenka and Putin discuss Union State agenda in phone call
Belarus plunges to 1%46%
Lukashenka’s phone call with Putin discussed the upcoming Union State council meeting, hinting that a Belarus‑Russia venue might host the next high‑level talks. The market responded by moving the “Belarus” probability sharply lower, from around 47 % to 1 %.
Putin says any Zelensky‑Putin meeting could only be in Russia or Belarus
Turkey plunges to 3%26%
Putin’s public suggestion that any meeting could only be held in Russia or Belarus, coupled with Zelensky’s invitation to Kyiv, led markets to view meetings in Qatar/UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kazakhstan and Turkey as highly unlikely, pushing all those outcomes to 1 %‑2 % levels.
Putin and Zelensky reject in-person meeting offers; Putin suggests Russia or Belarus as venue
No meeting before 2027 dips to 76%1%
Both leaders rejected offers to meet in person, with Putin proposing Russia or Belarus as meeting locations, which Zelenskyy declined, further diminishing prospects of a direct meeting before 2027.
Trilateral peace talks in Abu Dhabi postponed amid ongoing tensions
Scheduled trilateral talks involving Russia, Ukraine, and the US in Abu Dhabi were postponed, with both Putin and Zelensky rejecting offers to meet in person. Putin suggested Russia or Belarus as hosts, but Zelenskyy insisted on any country except Russia or Belarus, maintaining the deadlock and reducing chances of a meeting in those locations.
Russian strikes threaten trilateral peace talks; no agreement on meeting venue
No meeting before 2027 dips to 75%2%
During trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi, both Putin and Zelenskyy rejected offers to meet in person. Putin suggested Russia or Belarus as venues, while Zelenskyy invited Putin to Ukraine, reflecting ongoing venue disputes and lack of direct meeting progress.
Trilateral peace talks held in UAE amid ongoing Russian strikes
No meeting before 2027 rises to 79%2%
US, Russia, and Ukraine held trilateral talks in the UAE, with Zelenskyy and Putin rejecting offers to meet in person. Putin suggested Russia or Belarus as meeting locations, while Zelenskyy invited Putin to Ukraine. The lack of agreement on a direct meeting location increased market confidence in 'No meeting before 2027'.
Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy grid threaten peace talks
Russia launched attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure just before trilateral talks, casting doubt on Moscow’s sincerity and reducing market confidence in imminent meetings, especially in Russia or Belarus.
Trilateral peace talks scheduled in Abu Dhabi with no direct Putin-Zelenskyy meeting
No meeting before 2027 dips to 76%2%
Trilateral talks involving Russia, Ukraine, and the US were scheduled in Abu Dhabi, but both Putin and Zelenskyy rejected offers to meet in person, maintaining the status quo of no direct encounter.
Putin and Zelenskyy reject in-person meeting offers amid energy strikes
No meeting before 2027 dips to 77%1%
Both leaders rejected proposals to meet in person, with Putin suggesting Russia or Belarus as hosts and Zelenskyy inviting Putin to Ukraine. Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure cast doubt on sincerity, further reducing meeting prospects before 2027.
Putin and Zelenskyy Reject Offers to Meet in Person
Belarus dips to 1%1%
Reports confirmed that both leaders rejected proposals for an in-person meeting, with Putin pushing for Russia or Belarus and Zelenskyy insisting on Ukraine.
Ukraine shifts approach to peace talks amid Russian attacks
Qatar / UAE dips to 3%2%
In early February 2026, Zelenskyy indicated a shift in Ukraine's approach to peace talks in the Emirates following heavy Russian bombardment. This development did not lead to a direct meeting with Putin, contributing to low market prices for meetings in Qatar/UAE and other locations.
Putin agrees to pause strikes on Kyiv until Feb 1, 2026
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%3%
Russia’s abrupt halt to Kyiv attacks until Feb 1 2026, announced by Trump, was reported as a de‑escalation step but did not include a Zelenskyy‑Putin meeting, further cementing the market’s shift toward “No meeting before 2027” (price climbed to 81 % by 2026‑04‑14).
Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure threaten peace talks
No meeting before 2027 dips to 77%1%
Russia launched attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid during trilateral peace talks, undermining trust and causing both Putin and Zelenskyy to reject in-person meetings, with Putin suggesting Russia or Belarus as hosts and Zelenskyy inviting Ukraine.
Trilateral peace talks in Abu Dhabi postponed amid ongoing tensions
No meeting before 2027 dips to 77%2%
Scheduled trilateral talks involving Russia, Ukraine, and the US in Abu Dhabi were postponed, reflecting ongoing difficulties in arranging direct meetings between Putin and Zelenskyy. This reinforced market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
Putin and Zelenskyy Reject Offers to Meet in Person as Energy Strikes Resume
No meeting before 2027 rises to 78%1%
Both leaders officially rejected proposals to meet in person on each other's preferred terms, casting deep doubt on a face-to-face summit.
Putin agrees to halt Kyiv strikes after Trump’s request, but both leaders still refuse in‑person talks
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 78%9%
Russia halted strikes on Kyiv after a personal request by Trump, but both leaders still declined a face‑to‑face meeting, confirming the stalemate and contributing to the market’s shift toward “No meeting”.
Russia launches energy strikes amid trilateral peace talks in Abu Dhabi
No meeting before 2027 rises to 80%3%
During trilateral talks involving Russia, Ukraine, and the US in Abu Dhabi, Russia launched massive attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid, undermining trust and sincerity in peace efforts. Both Putin and Zelenskyy rejected offers to meet in person, with Putin suggesting Russia or Belarus as hosts and Zelenskyy inviting Ukraine. This event decreased chances of a meeting in Turkey, Qatar/UAE, Belarus, or Russia, boosting 'No meeting before 2027' odds.
Ukraine, US and Russia set to meet in Abu Dhabi on Feb 4‑5
Qatar / UAE rises to 2%2%
A trilateral meeting of Ukraine, the United States and Russia was scheduled for Abu Dhabi (UAE) on Feb 4‑5 2026. The announcement raised the probability of a meeting taking place in the “Qatar / UAE” region, briefly lifting that outcome from 0 % to 2 % before the market again reverted as the talks were postponed.
Next round of trilateral talks scheduled in UAE, Zelenskyy says
No meeting before 2027 dips to 76%2%
Following constructive trilateral talks in the UAE, negotiators planned to return for another round on Feb. 1, showing ongoing diplomacy but no direct leader meeting. This maintained high market odds for no meeting before 2027.
US-mediated trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi described as constructive but no breakthrough
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 76%6%
Ukraine, Russia, and the US held trilateral peace talks in Abu Dhabi, which Zelenskyy called 'constructive.' Despite progress on some issues, key sticking points like territorial concessions and peacekeepers remain unresolved, maintaining market skepticism about imminent meetings.
Kremlin insists Zelenskyy-Putin meeting only in Moscow
No meeting before 2027 rises to 79%1%
In early February 2026, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov reiterated that Russia would only consider Moscow as the venue for a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting, rejecting other locations. Zelenskyy had publicly refused to travel to Moscow or Belarus, reinforcing the deadlock and market confidence in no meeting before 2027.
Putin agrees to halt Kyiv strikes for a week at Trump’s request
No meeting before 2027 rises to 78%1%
Putin announced a temporary halt to strikes on Kyiv until Feb 1, after a request from Trump. The pause was presented as a goodwill gesture but did not include any commitment to a face‑to‑face meeting, reinforcing market confidence in the “No meeting” outcome (price remained above 70 %).
Putin says he will meet Zelenskyy only in Moscow
Russia plunges to 1%43%
During a direct‑line broadcast, Putin reiterated he would only meet Zelenskyy in Moscow, eliminating other possible venues (Turkey, Qatar/UAE, etc.). This reinforced the market’s shift toward “No meeting” and kept the Russia probability near its lows.
Zelensky invites Putin to Kyiv; Kremlin says Putin received the request
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 81%6%
Zelensky publicly invited Putin to Kyiv; the Kremlin confirmed the request was received. The invitation, combined with Putin’s refusal to meet in Kyiv, kept expectations low for a near‑term meeting, reinforcing the “No meeting” trend.
Zelenskyy invites Putin to Kyiv for talks, Kremlin confirms receipt
No meeting before 2027 rises to 67%2%
Zelenskyy invited Putin to Kyiv for talks, but Kremlin insisted Putin had only agreed to the proposal without confirming willingness to meet. This maintained uncertainty and did not boost meeting probabilities.
Putin says he will meet Zelenskyy only in Moscow
No meeting before 2027 drops to 1%8%
Putin publicly stated he would only meet Zelenskyy in Moscow, narrowing the venue options and causing the “US” and “Switzerland” odds to collapse as those locations became less likely.
Zelenskyy invites Putin to Kyiv for talks, Kremlin confirms receipt
Russia drops to 2%6%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy publicly invited Putin to Kyiv for talks, with the Kremlin confirming Putin had received the request and agreed to consider it. This raised hopes for a meeting in Ukraine or Russia but Zelenskyy ruled out meeting in Moscow, dampening prospects for a meeting in Russia.
Zelenskyy publicly invites Putin to Kyiv for talks but refuses to meet in Moscow or Belarus
Zelenskyy invited Putin to Kyiv for talks but rejected meeting in Moscow or Belarus, which Putin had proposed. This hardened positions and reduced likelihood of a meeting in Belarus or Russia, contributing to the market's decline in those options.
Kremlin states Moscow is only venue for Putin-Zelensky meeting
Russia plunges to 8%36%
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov declared that Moscow is the sole location under discussion for a potential Putin-Zelensky summit, emphasizing Russia's position and impacting market confidence in meetings elsewhere.
Kremlin invites Zelenskyy to Moscow for peace talks; Zelenskyy rejects meeting in Moscow
No meeting before 2027 rises to 68%3%
The Kremlin confirmed Putin received Zelenskyy's invitation to talks, but Zelenskyy stated it was impossible to meet in Moscow and suggested Putin come to Kyiv instead. This exchange highlighted the impasse over meeting location, reducing chances of a direct meeting in Russia or Ukraine and increasing the likelihood of no meeting before 2027.
US-mediated Ukraine-Russia talks in Abu Dhabi show progress but no breakthrough
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 79%12%
Negotiations mediated by the US in Abu Dhabi involved Ukraine and Russia discussing key issues including territorial matters and ceasefire parameters. Zelenskyy expressed readiness to meet Putin personally to resolve sensitive issues, but no meeting was scheduled, maintaining market skepticism about near-term talks.
Zelenskyy urges compromise as peace talks begin in Abu Dhabi
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 78%6%
In late January 2026, Zelenskyy emphasized the need for compromises from all sides during trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi involving the US, Ukraine, and Russia. Despite these talks, it remained unclear if Zelenskyy and Putin would meet face-to-face, sustaining market skepticism about a meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy publicly invites Putin to Kyiv for peace talks, refuses Moscow or Belarus
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 70%6%
Zelenskyy issued a bold public invitation to Putin to meet in Kyiv 'if he dares,' while firmly rejecting meetings in Moscow or Belarus, labeling Russia as aggressor and Belarus as partner in war. This hardened positions and reduced market confidence in meetings in Russia or Belarus.
US-mediated trilateral talks held in Abu Dhabi with Russia and Ukraine
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 76%9%
Russian, Ukrainian, and US delegations met in Abu Dhabi for trilateral talks, marking progress but no breakthrough. Officials indicated Zelenskyy and Putin were close to arranging a direct meeting, but it did not materialize, keeping market confidence low for a meeting before 2027.
Putin warns Russia will extend gains if peace talks fail
No meeting before 2027 rises to 79%1%
Russian President Putin publicly warned that Russia would seek to extend its territorial gains in Ukraine if peace talks fail, signaling hardened positions and reducing likelihood of a direct meeting with Zelenskyy, which influenced market prices downward for meeting locations and upward for no meeting.
Trump and Zelenskyy to meet at Davos; US envoys to meet Putin in Moscow
No meeting before 2027 rises to 78%4%
President Trump announced a meeting with Zelenskyy at the World Economic Forum in Davos and sent envoys to meet Putin in Moscow, signaling continued US mediation efforts. Despite these diplomatic moves, no direct meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy was arranged, maintaining market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
Trump and Zelenskyy meet at Davos amid ongoing peace efforts
No meeting before 2027 rises to 67%4%
Trump and Zelenskyy met at the World Economic Forum in Davos, expressing optimism about peace talks. Trump invited Putin to join a peace board, and US envoys planned talks with Putin in Moscow, but no direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting was arranged, reinforcing market doubts about a near-term meeting.
Trump hosts Board of Peace signing ceremony in Davos with Putin invited
The US hosted a Board of Peace signing ceremony in Davos, inviting Russia and other countries, including those in the Middle East, to participate in peace efforts. This diplomatic initiative raised hopes but did not lead to a direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, affecting market prices for meeting locations.
Kremlin aide praises Trump's peace efforts after Zelenskyy meeting and Putin call
No meeting before 2027 rises to 82%2%
Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev praised Trump's peace efforts following the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting and a phone call between Trump and Putin, indicating ongoing diplomatic engagement but no direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting. This reinforced market confidence in no meeting before 2027.
Peace talks continue in Paris with no breakthrough as Putin remains distant from draft terms
No meeting before 2027 rises to 68%2%
Negotiations in Paris involved U.S., Ukrainian, and Russian envoys but Putin's position remained distant from the draft peace terms, indicating ongoing stalemate and no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin.
Zelenskyy meets Trump in Florida to discuss Ukraine security guarantees
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 80%13%
Zelenskyy met with Trump in Florida to discuss security guarantees and peace proposals, signaling progress in US-led diplomacy but no direct meeting with Putin. This meeting increased optimism for peace but did not raise chances of a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting in the US or elsewhere.
Putin and Trump hold friendly phone call after Zelenskyy‑Trump meeting
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 73%14%
Putin spoke with Trump on the phone after Zelenskyy’s Mar‑a‑Lago meeting. The call was described as “friendly, benevolent and businesslike” and reinforced the perception that a direct Zelenskyy‑Putin encounter was not imminent, contributing to the steady rise of the “No meeting” price in the days that followed.
Russian official alleges Ukrainian drone attack on Putin's residence
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 72%5%
Russia claimed Ukraine launched a drone attack on Putin's residence, which Zelenskyy dismissed as disinformation. This escalated tensions and hardened Russia's negotiating stance, reducing chances of a meeting in Russia or Belarus and lowering related market prices.
Putin claims Ukrainian drone attack, toughens peace stance
No meeting before 2027 dips to 59%4%
Following Zelenskyy's meeting with Trump, Putin cited a Ukrainian drone attack on his residence as justification for a tougher line in peace talks, signaling reluctance to compromise and reducing chances of a direct meeting soon.
Putin expresses dissatisfaction with Trump call, cites drone attack to harden stance
No meeting before 2027 rises to 56%2%
Putin was reportedly unsatisfied with a call with Trump before Zelenskyy's arrival, citing a Ukrainian drone attack on his residence to justify a tougher peace negotiation stance, dampening hopes for a near-term meeting.
Putin phone call with Trump before Zelenskyy meeting signals stalled peace talks
No meeting before 2027 drops to 65%7%
Putin had a phone conversation with Trump before Zelenskyy's arrival at Mar-a-Lago but was reportedly unsatisfied, indicating ongoing difficulties in finalizing peace terms and no imminent direct meeting with Zelenskyy.
Trump hosts Zelensky at Mar‑a‑Lago, says Putin “serious” but no direct meeting scheduled
No meeting before 2027 surges to 75%16%
Trump and Zelensky met at Mar‑a‑Lago; Trump said Putin was “serious” but no direct meeting was arranged. The lack of a three‑way summit caused traders to push the probability of any Zelensky‑Putin meeting down, driving the “No meeting before 2027” price up sharply.
Zelenskyy and Trump meet at Mar-a-Lago, Trump speaks with Putin, peace deal seen close
No meeting before 2027 rises to 70%4%
Zelenskyy met Trump in Florida and Trump spoke with Putin by phone, expressing optimism about a peace deal nearing completion. Despite this, no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin took place, reinforcing market expectations that no meeting would occur before 2027.
Trump and Zelenskyy suggest peace deal could be close after cordial meeting
No meeting before 2027 rises to 71%1%
Following a more cordial meeting, Trump and Zelenskyy expressed optimism about concluding a peace deal soon, but no direct meeting with Putin occurred. This maintained market expectations that a face-to-face meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin was unlikely before 2027.
Trump and Zelenskyy suggest peace deal could be close after Mar-a-Lago meeting
Trump and Zelenskyy emerged from talks at Mar-a-Lago expressing optimism that a peace deal was imminent, boosting confidence in a resolution involving US-mediated negotiations.
Trump and Zelenskyy meet at Mar-a-Lago, express optimism on peace deal
US dips to 4%1%
Trump and Zelenskyy held a high-profile meeting in Florida, with Trump stating talks were in final stages and planning to call Putin again. This raised market hopes for a US-hosted meeting but no direct Putin-Zelenskyy meeting occurred.
Trump and Zelenskyy meet in Florida, express optimism on peace deal
No meeting before 2027 surges to 75%16%
On December 28, 2025, Trump and Zelenskyy met at Mar-a-Lago, discussing progress toward a peace deal. Trump indicated talks were in final stages and planned to speak with Putin, raising market optimism for a meeting but no direct Putin-Zelenskyy summit was arranged.
Trump and Zelenskyy express optimism about nearing peace deal after Mar-a-Lago meeting
US plunges to 7%15%
Following a meeting at Mar-a-Lago, US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed optimism about a potential peace deal to end the war. This raised market hopes for a meeting involving the US as a venue or mediator, temporarily increasing the US option's probability before it declined due to lack of follow-up progress.
Zelenskyy meets Trump in Florida amid optimism for peace deal
US plunges to 3%19%
Zelenskyy met with US President Trump at Mar-a-Lago, with both expressing hope for a peace deal and Trump planning to speak with Putin. Despite progress, no direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting was arranged, leading to a decline in US as meeting location probability.
Trump and Zelenskyy meet at Mar-a-Lago for peace talks amid renewed diplomatic push
The high-profile lunch meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy at Mar-a-Lago followed a flurry of US, Russian, and Ukrainian talks, signaling renewed diplomatic momentum for a potential peace deal.
Trump Meets Zelenskyy at Mar-a-Lago, Claims Peace is 'Closer Than Ever'
US rises to 9%3%
Donald Trump hosted Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Florida after a long phone call with Vladimir Putin, raising hopes of a breakthrough and a potential trilateral summit.
Trump and Zelenskyy express optimism on peace deal after Florida meeting
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 67%8%
Following their meeting, Trump and Zelenskyy suggested a peace deal was close, with Trump planning to call Putin soon. Despite this optimism, no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin was arranged, contributing to the market's decline in meeting location probabilities and rise in 'No meeting'.
Trump, Zelenskyy hail progress towards Russia‑Ukraine peace deal
US plunges to 2%20%
Zelenskyy met Trump at Mar‑a‑Lago and Trump reported a phone call with Putin, prompting market participants to view a U.S.‑facilitated summit as unlikely, pushing the US outcome down from 22 % to 2 % by year‑end.
Zelenskyy meets Trump at Mar-a-Lago, discusses peace deal progress
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 72%6%
Zelenskyy and Trump held a high-profile meeting in Florida, with Trump stating peace talks were in final stages and planning to call Putin. This raised hopes for a trilateral summit but no direct Putin-Zelenskyy meeting occurred.
Trump hosts Zelenskyy at Mar-a-Lago, signals peace deal nearing
US jumps to 29%7%
President Trump met Ukrainian President Zelenskyy at Mar-a-Lago and indicated that peace negotiations with Russia were progressing, raising market hopes for a meeting involving the US as a venue or mediator. This boosted the US and related venue probabilities temporarily.
Trump hosts Zelenskyy at Mar-a-Lago, signals peace deal nearing
No meeting before 2027 surges to 75%16%
President Donald Trump met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Florida, expressing optimism that peace talks with Russia were in the final stages and that a trilateral meeting including Putin could happen. This raised market hopes for a meeting but did not specify location.
Trump and Zelenskyy meet at Mar-a-Lago, express optimism on peace deal
No meeting before 2027 surges to 68%19%
After a lengthy meeting, Trump and Zelenskyy suggested peace talks were in final stages, with Trump planning to call Putin. Despite optimism, Putin’s position remained distant, and no direct meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy was arranged.
Trump and Putin hold productive call ahead of Zelenskyy peace talks
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 76%11%
On December 28, 2025, former US President Donald Trump announced a productive phone call with Putin just before his meeting with Zelenskyy. This set the stage for critical peace talks, but no immediate breakthrough on meeting location occurred, maintaining uncertainty and supporting the market's high probability for no meeting before 2027.
Trump says Putin ‘serious’ after Mar‑a‑Lago talks with Zelenskyy
No meeting before 2027 surges to 82%15%
After a joint press conference in Florida, Trump claimed Putin was “serious” about peace, but no personal meeting was arranged. The absence of a concrete rendez‑vous led the market to further favour the “No meeting” outcome.
Zelenskyy meets Trump at Mar-a-Lago amid optimism for peace talks
US drops to 9%13%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy met with US President Trump in Florida, expressing hope for progress toward a peace deal. Trump indicated plans to call Putin and suggested both leaders want peace, boosting market optimism for a meeting but without concrete plans for a Zelenskyy-Putin summit.
Zelenskyy meets Trump in Florida amid peace deal optimism
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 67%8%
Zelenskyy met with Trump at Mar-a-Lago, with Trump stating peace talks were in final stages and he planned to speak with Putin again. This raised hopes for a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting but no direct meeting occurred, influencing market prices.
Zelensky to travel to US for Trump meeting amid push for Ukraine peace deal
US plunges to 3%19%
Zelensky announced travel to the US for a Trump meeting in Florida, shifting focus to US‑Ukrainian talks and away from a direct Zelensky‑Putin meeting, reinforcing the “No meeting” price rise.
Zelenskyy to travel to US for Trump meeting amid push for Ukraine deal
US dips to 2%3%
Zelenskyy confirmed travel to the US for a planned meeting with Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago, marking a significant diplomatic development in the peace process.
Zelenskyy to meet Trump in Florida amid diplomatic push to end war
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 64%5%
Zelenskyy traveled to Florida to meet Trump, signaling a US-led diplomatic push to resolve the conflict. This meeting raised hopes for progress but did not include Putin, reinforcing the low chance of a direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting.
Zelenskyy to travel to US for meeting with Trump
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 70%8%
Zelenskyy announced his upcoming travel to the United States for a meeting with Trump, diverting attention from any possible direct talks with Putin and reinforcing expectations that a Zelenskyy‑Putin encounter was unlikely in the near term, lifting the “No meeting” price.
Zelenskyy announces planned meeting with Trump in Florida amid peace push
US plunges to 5%17%
Zelenskyy planned to meet Trump at Mar-a-Lago to discuss a US-backed peace deal, signaling increased diplomatic activity. This raised hopes for progress but no direct meeting with Putin was scheduled, affecting market optimism about meeting locations.
Zelenskyy to meet Trump in Florida amid push for Ukraine peace deal
US plunges to 3%19%
Zelenskyy announced a planned meeting with Trump at Mar-a-Lago to discuss peace efforts, signaling US-led diplomatic momentum. This raised hopes for a trilateral meeting but Putin remained unyielding, limiting optimism for a direct Putin-Zelenskyy meeting soon.
Zelenskyy announces planned meeting with Trump in Florida amid peace push
No meeting before 2027 drops to 51%8%
Zelenskyy planned to meet US President Trump at Mar-a-Lago to discuss peace efforts, signaling increased diplomatic activity but no direct talks with Putin. This raised hopes for progress but did not directly involve a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting.
Zelenskyy unveils revised 20-point peace plan coordinated with US
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 71%12%
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy presented a newly revised 20-point peace proposal coordinated with the US, narrowing gaps but leaving major territorial disputes unresolved. This diplomatic shift caused a massive drop in alternative location options as the market consolidated around 'No meeting before 2027'.
Zelenskyy Unveils Details of New 20-Point Peace Plan, Seeks Trump Talks
No meeting before 2027 dips to 67%4%
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy presented a revised 20-point peace plan coordinated with the US, signaling intense diplomatic activity but highlighting major unresolved territorial disputes.
Hungarian premier says he would talk to Putin but won’t initiate contact
A brief statement that Hungarian leader Péter Magyar might speak with Putin raised the Hungary outcome to 23 % on 2025‑11‑06, but the probability quickly fell as attention shifted to US‑led talks.
Zelenskyy Unveils Revised US-Backed 20-Point Peace Plan
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 70%9%
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy presented a newly coordinated 20-point peace proposal with the US, signaling progress but highlighting major unresolved territorial issues.
Putin says there is ‘no point’ in meeting Zelenskyy before a settlement
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 75%14%
Putin rejected a direct meeting in Istanbul, stating there was “no point” in meeting before a lasting deal was reached. This reinforced market confidence that no meeting would occur, pushing the “No meeting before 2027” chance upward.
Kremlin says Putin will meet Zelenskyy only in Moscow to finalize agreements
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 84%14%
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin would meet Zelenskyy only in Moscow and only to finalize agreements, reinforcing the perception that a meeting in Russia is unlikely and pushing “No meeting before 2027” up sharply.
After Putin’s visit, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy may travel to India in Jan 2026
India plunges to 1%26%
Reports in Indian media suggested Zelenskyy could visit New Delhi in January 2026, shortly after Putin’s own India trip. The speculation pushed the India outcome down from 27 % to 1 % over the next months.
Putin visits India for strategic partnership talks, India plans Zelenskyy visit
India plunges to 1%26%
Putin's visit to India in December 2025 was followed by reports that India was preparing to host Zelenskyy in early 2026, reflecting diplomatic balancing but no direct meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy in India, leading to low market confidence for India as meeting location.
Putin skips scheduled Istanbul summit with Zelenskyy
Turkey dips to 7%4%
Putin’s refusal to travel to Turkey for a summit in Istanbul caused the market’s “Turkey” price to plunge from double‑digit levels back to low single‑digits.
U.S. envoy Witkoff meets Putin in Moscow as Zelenskyy tours Europe
Russia plunges to 1%43%
U.S. envoy Witkoff met Putin in Moscow while Zelenskyy toured Europe, signalling that a direct Zelenskyy‑Putin encounter was not on the agenda and contributing to the sharp drop in the Russia outcome (price fell to 1 % by 2025‑12‑14).
US envoy Steve Witkoff meets Putin in Moscow as Zelenskyy tours Europe
No meeting before 2027 plunges to 30%19%
US special envoy Steve Witkoff traveled to Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin to present a peace plan, while Zelenskyy toured European countries to sustain support. This diplomatic activity indicated ongoing efforts but no direct meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy, maintaining uncertainty about a future encounter location.
U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff meets Putin in Moscow
US plunges to 2%20%
U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff travelled to Moscow for a closed‑door meeting with Putin. The news shifted attention to U.S.‑led mediation and reduced the market’s view that the meeting would occur in the U.S., sending the “US” outcome down from ~22 % to ~2 % over the following weeks.
Zelenskyy announces new round of peace talks with US cooperation
No meeting before 2027 rises to 65%4%
Zelenskyy announced ongoing coordination with American representatives to advance peace and security guarantees, signaling diplomatic efforts but no direct meeting with Putin. This maintained market uncertainty and supported the 'No meeting before 2027' option.
US envoy Steve Witkoff meets Putin in Moscow amid peace talks
No meeting before 2027 drops to 53%6%
US special envoy Steve Witkoff met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow as part of ongoing peace negotiations, signaling active US involvement but no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin yet.
Zelenskyy announces new meeting of 'Coalition of the Determined' amid peace talks
No meeting before 2027 rises to 60%1%
Zelenskyy announced a meeting of the 'Coalition of the Determined' to coordinate further actions in the war and peace process, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts but no direct meeting with Putin, which maintained market uncertainty and favored 'No meeting before 2027'.
Zelenskyy signals readiness to discuss US peace plan with Trump, Trump envoy to meet Putin
No meeting before 2027 surges to 79%20%
Zelenskyy expressed willingness to move forward with a US-backed peace deal and discuss sensitive points with Trump, while Trump dispatched envoy Steve Witkoff to meet Putin in Moscow. This raised hopes for progress but Trump stated he would only meet Zelenskyy and Putin when the deal was in final stages, causing market shifts.
Zelenskyy says Ukraine ready to move forward with US peace plan
US plunges to 5%44%
Zelenskyy announced Kyiv was ready to advance a US-backed peace deal and discuss sensitive points with Donald Trump, signaling a major diplomatic step toward potential Zelenskyy-Putin talks.
Trump dispatches special envoy Witkoff to meet Putin in Moscow
US plunges to 5%44%
Trump sent US special envoy Steve Witkoff to meet Vladimir Putin in Moscow, part of a broader diplomatic effort to finalize a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia.
Zelenskyy says next Russia‑Ukraine peace talks set for Abu Dhabi, then postpones them
Qatar / UAE plunges to 3%46%
U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff announced a trilateral meeting set for Abu Dhabi on 4‑5 Feb 2026, but Zelenskyy later postponed it. The announcement temporarily raised the Qatar/UAE probability, then the postponement caused a collapse from 49 % to 3 % as the market saw the venue fading.
Putin says any meeting with Zelenskyy must be in Moscow
No meeting before 2027 dips to 1%1%
Putin’s earlier comment that he would consider meeting only in Moscow reduced optimism for neutral‑site venues, causing a drop in the “Switzerland” and “Qatar / UAE” odds.
Zelenskyy travels to Turkey to revive peace talks without Russian participation
Turkey plunges to 2%27%
Zelenskyy visited Turkey to meet with US envoy and Turkish President Erdogan to restart peace negotiations, but Russia declined to participate, reducing chances of a direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting there. This caused the market price for Turkey as meeting location to drop sharply.
Geneva peace talks flashpoint as Trump administration leaks 28-point Ukraine peace plan
The controversial 28-point peace plan leaked to the press, reportedly involving a cap on Ukraine's military and a freeze on NATO membership, causing market uncertainty about the feasibility of a peace deal.
Ukraine appeals to Turkey to help organize Zelenskyy-Putin summit
Turkey plunges to 7%22%
Ukraine requested Turkey's assistance in organizing a summit-level meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, with Turkey seen as a mediator. Kremlin stated Putin is ready to meet in Moscow only if the meeting yields concrete results, limiting venue options and keeping market prices for Turkey and Russia low.
Zelenskyy publicly invites Putin to Kyiv for peace talks, refuses Moscow or Belarus
No meeting before 2027 drops to 51%8%
Zelenskyy issued a bold public invitation to Putin to meet in Kyiv, challenging him to come "if he dares," while firmly refusing to travel to Moscow or Belarus. This escalated the diplomatic standoff and diminished prospects for a meeting in Russia or Belarus, pushing market prices for Kyiv and Belarus options down.
Putin and Trump meet in Alaska, discuss Ukraine peace but no agreement reached
No meeting before 2027 rises to 63%4%
In August 2025, Putin and Trump met in Alaska and voiced interest in economic cooperation and peace talks, but no concrete agreement was reached. Putin reportedly offered to end the war if Ukraine ceded Donbas, which Zelenskyy rejected. This meeting set a diplomatic context but did not lead to direct Putin-Zelenskyy talks, influencing market expectations.
Zelenskyy publicly offers to meet Putin in Turkey for face-to-face talks
Turkey jumps to 37%8%
On May 11, 2025, Zelenskyy announced readiness to travel to Turkey for direct talks with Putin, signaling a willingness to negotiate in a neutral venue. This raised market expectations for a meeting in Turkey, reflected in initial price levels.
Russia launches strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure amid peace talks
No meeting before 2027 rises to 62%3%
Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid coincided with trilateral peace talks, undermining trust and causing both Putin and Zelenskyy to reject in-person meeting offers. This heightened skepticism about a near-term meeting, boosting the 'No meeting before 2027' outcome.
Putin skips scheduled Istanbul meeting with Zelensky, citing logistical issues
Turkey plunges to 7%22%
Early speculation that Istanbul could host direct talks collapsed after Putin failed to attend the scheduled May 15 meeting, prompting a sharp decline in the “Turkey” outcome and a rise in “No meeting”.
Kremlin insists Moscow only venue for Zelenskyy-Putin talks
Russia plunges to 1%43%
The Kremlin reiterated that it considers only Moscow as the appropriate venue for a meeting with Zelenskyy, rejecting other locations and emphasizing the need for specific agreements before a meeting, reinforcing diplomatic stalemate and lowering market confidence in a meeting outside Russia.
Kremlin sees no grounds for Zelenskyy-Putin meeting
No meeting before 2027 surges to 75%16%
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated Moscow does not see concrete steps from Kyiv to organize a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, emphasizing territorial issues as complex and requiring expert-level work. This dampened market expectations for a meeting soon, increasing the 'No meeting before 2027' price.
Zelenskyy publicly offers to meet Putin in Turkey for face-to-face talks
Turkey plunges to 7%22%
On May 11, 2025, Zelenskyy announced readiness to travel to Turkey for direct talks with Putin, signaling a willingness to negotiate in a neutral venue. This offer was unlikely to be accepted by Putin due to military pressures and Kremlin propaganda concerns, influencing market prices by lowering Turkey's meeting probability.
Zelenskyy announces trilateral talks with Russia and US in UAE
Qatar / UAE plunges to 3%46%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announced that trilateral talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the United States would be held in the United Arab Emirates, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts but no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin. This announcement initially affected market expectations for a meeting in UAE/Qatar and related locations.
US releases 28-point peace plan for Ukraine, sparking diplomatic activity
No meeting before 2027 drops to 51%8%
The US circulated a detailed 28-point peace plan for Ukraine, initiating a diplomatic push involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US. This plan led to multiple rounds of talks but faced resistance from Russia, especially on territorial issues, limiting prospects for a direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting and influencing early market price shifts away from meeting locations toward 'No meeting before 2027'.
Speculation that Kazakhstan could host Zelensky‑Putin talks
Kazakhstan plunges to 1%48%
Early‑month speculation that Kazakhstan might serve as a neutral venue for a Zelenskyy‑Putin summit appeared in Ukrainian outlets, briefly lifting the Kazakhstan probability before it collapsed to 1 % as no concrete invitation materialised.
Zelenskyy rejects Belarus as venue for Putin talks
Belarus plunges to 0%47%
Zelenskyy publicly ruled out meeting in Belarus, reinforcing his preference for neutral third‑countries and causing the Belarus outcome to fall from 47 % to zero by April 2026.
US Special Envoy says Zelenskyy-Putin meeting possible within weeks
No meeting before 2027 drops to 51%8%
US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff stated that a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin could happen within three weeks, possibly including US President Trump, raising market hopes for a near-term summit and causing some price fluctuations in related outcomes.
Kremlin insists Moscow only venue for Zelenskyy-Putin talks
Russia plunges to 8%36%
Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Russia considers only Moscow as the location for a meeting with Zelenskyy, rejecting other venues. This hardened stance contributed to market declines in the likelihood of meetings outside Russia, particularly Kyiv or Belarus.
Talks hint at possible Abu Dhabi trilateral summit
Early‑month speculation that a trilateral summit could be hosted in the Gulf (Abu Dhabi) led to a brief spike in the Qatar/UAE outcome (price at 49 % on 2025‑11‑06) before the prospect faded as other venues were discussed.
Trump announces potential trilateral summit with Putin and Zelenskyy
Trump signaled interest in a three-way meeting between Russia, Ukraine, and the US, boosting hopes for direct negotiations and influencing market expectations for a meeting location.
Putin visits India amid diplomatic balancing by Ukraine and India
India plunges to 1%26%
Russian President Vladimir Putin visited India, where diplomatic efforts included discussions with Indian leaders who maintain contacts with both Russia and Ukraine. This visit raised speculation about India as a potential meeting venue for Zelenskyy and Putin, briefly supporting the India option in the market.
US President Trump proposes trilateral meeting with Zelenskyy and Putin
Trump expressed willingness to host a trilateral meeting and provide security guarantees to Ukraine, raising initial market interest in a US-hosted meeting. However, skepticism remained due to ongoing conflict and negotiation challenges.
Kremlin insists Zelenskyy must come to Moscow for talks
Russia plunges to 8%36%
Russian officials, including Dmitry Peskov, reiterated that Moscow is the only acceptable venue for a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting, rejecting other locations. Zelenskyy publicly refused to meet in Moscow or Belarus, sharply reducing market confidence in meetings in Russia or Belarus and increasing "No meeting before 2027" odds.
Trump pledges to push for a Zelenskyy‑Putin meeting after August 2025 Alaska summit
No meeting before 2027 surges to 75%16%
The market opened at 59 % “No meeting before 2027”. Early optimism that Trump might force a meeting after the August 2025 Alaska summit caused the price to rise to 75 % by 17 Nov 2025.
US, Russia and Ukraine to hold trilateral talks in UAE, Zelenskyy says
No meeting before 2027 surges to 79%20%
Zelenskyy announced trilateral talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US to be held in the UAE, signaling a diplomatic push but no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin. This news caused a sharp drop in the Qatar/UAE meeting probability and increased the likelihood of no meeting before 2027.
Kremlin says no grounds for a Zelensky‑Putin meeting
No meeting before 2027 drops to 59%5%
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia sees no grounds for a Zelensky‑Putin meeting, stating that Kyiv has made no concrete steps. The market interpreted this as a strong signal that a meeting was unlikely, pushing the “No meeting before 2027” probability up sharply.
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