This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran.
- Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports refers to U.S. restrictions that prohibit or limit the production, sale, transport, purchase, or export of crude oil, petroleum, or petrochemical products from Iran, including associated shipping, insurance, and financial transactions necessary for such exports. This includes both primary sanctions, which apply to U.S. persons, and secondary sanctions, which apply to non-U.S. persons or entities engaging in such activities.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or reduce such sanctions if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil
- The removal, suspension, waiver, or reduction of any such sanctions is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz refers to U.S. acceptance of Iran imposing tolls, transit fees, passage charges, or other mandatory payments on commercial vessels in exchange for transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to Iran charging such fees if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to accept Iran charging such fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
- Iran charging such fees is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to unfreeze any Iranian assets by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Unfreezing Iranian assets refers to the release, transfer, or restoration of Iranian access to any assets that are frozen, blocked, or otherwise inaccessible due to U.S. sanctions or restrictions. This includes both assets held in the United States and assets held in foreign jurisdictions where access is restricted due to U.S. sanctions. The removal of sanctions which freeze these assets will also be considered to be unfreezing Iranian assets.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to unfreeze Iranian assets if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to unfreeze any Iranian assets.
- The unfreezing of any Iranian assets is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.Amid stalled US-Iran negotiations following a fragile ceasefire extension, President Trump rejected Iran's latest April 28 proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for safe passage and collect transit fees while deferring nuclear and sanctions discussions to later stages. Trump, briefed by CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper on April 30, is weighing targeted strikes on Iranian infrastructure to pressure Tehran amid Iran's supreme leader vowing to preserve nuclear and missile programs. No public agreement on key Iranian demands—such as oil sanction relief, unfrozen assets, or uranium enrichment limits—emerged in April despite multiple deadlines and proposals, reflecting Trump's maximum pressure diplomacy and trader consensus on minimal concessions before potential escalation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports refers to U.S. restrictions that prohibit or limit the production, sale, transport, purchase, or export of crude oil, petroleum, or petrochemical products from Iran, including associated shipping, insurance, and financial transactions necessary for such exports. This includes both primary sanctions, which apply to U.S. persons, and secondary sanctions, which apply to non-U.S. persons or entities engaging in such activities.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or reduce such sanctions if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil - The removal, suspension, waiver, or reduction of any such sanctions is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports refers to U.S. restrictions that prohibit or limit the production, sale, transport, purchase, or export of crude oil, petroleum, or petrochemical products from Iran, including associated shipping, insurance, and financial transactions necessary for such exports. This includes both primary sanctions, which apply to U.S. persons, and secondary sanctions, which apply to non-U.S. persons or entities engaging in such activities.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or reduce such sanctions if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil
- The removal, suspension, waiver, or reduction of any such sanctions is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.
Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Amid stalled US-Iran negotiations following a fragile ceasefire extension, President Trump rejected Iran's latest April 28 proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for safe passage and collect transit fees while deferring nuclear and sanctions discussions to later stages. Trump, briefed by CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper on April 30, is weighing targeted strikes on Iranian infrastructure to pressure Tehran amid Iran's supreme leader vowing to preserve nuclear and missile programs. No public agreement on key Iranian demands—such as oil sanction relief, unfrozen assets, or uranium enrichment limits—emerged in April despite multiple deadlines and proposals, reflecting Trump's maximum pressure diplomacy and trader consensus on minimal concessions before potential escalation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Apr 30 2026
No further definitive U.S. announcement of agreement;
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 0%2%
Iran’s parliament speaker rejects Trump’s claims, confirming that no deal on continued enrichment has been reached
Apr 29 2026
Trump vows to maintain Iran blockade despite Iranian threats, signaling no asset release
Unfreeze Iranian Assets dips to 2%1%
Trump’s firm stance on continuing the naval blockade and rejecting Iranian proposals signals a hardening US position, effectively ending hopes for asset unfreezing.
Apr 28 2026
Iran offers to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S.
Oil Sanction Relief dips to 2%1%
lifts its blockade and ends the war, but Trump signals rejection of the offer due to unresolved nuclear program disagreements
Apr 27 2026
Reports reveal U.S. naval blockade forcing Iran to store oil in poor conditions, increasing pressure on Iran but no sign of U.S.
Oil Sanction Relief dips to 3%4%
acceptance of oil sanction relief; Iran offers a proposal to lift blockade in exchange for sanctions relief, but Trump appears unlikely to accept
Apr 24 2026
Trump says he is awaiting Iran's offer but insists any deal must include Iran giving up enriched uranium and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, showing no concession on uranium
Oil Sanction Relief drops to 7%5%
Trump says he is awaiting Iran's offer but insists any deal must include Iran giving up enriched uranium and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, showing no concession on uranium enrichment
Apr 24 2026
Market reacts to contradictory signals and Trump’s social media posts disrupting talks
Unfreeze Iranian Assets plunges to 7%17%
Trump’s erratic public statements and social media activity create confusion and mistrust, undermining progress and sharply reducing market confidence.
Apr 24 2026
Iran's central bank confirms revenue from Strait of Hormuz transit fees deposited in cash currency, dispelling earlier claims of crypto-only payments;
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz dips to 3%1%
Iran asserts sovereignty and warns of further seizures if US aggression continues
Apr 23 2026
Iran confirms seizure of several foreign merchant vessels in the Strait, intensifying maritime standoff amid ongoing US blockade and sanctions enforcement;
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz drops to 4%5%
Iran also confirms collection of transit fees deposited in cash to its central bank
Apr 22 2026
Washington Post reports Trump faces similar trade-offs as Obama on Iran asset release
Unfreeze Iranian Assets rises to 24%4%
Analysis highlights Trump’s political dilemma over unfreezing assets despite prior criticism of Obama’s Iran deal, adding uncertainty to the market.
Apr 22 2026
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent testifies about the decision to let sanctions waivers expire despite pleas from vulnerable countries, signaling a hardening U.S.
Oil Sanction Relief drops to 12%8%
stance on sanctions relief for Iran
Apr 21 2026
Trump announces extension of Iran ceasefire but maintains naval blockade
Unfreeze Iranian Assets drops to 20%5%
While the ceasefire extension is positive, Trump’s decision to keep the blockade on Iranian ports dampens expectations for asset unfreezing, reflecting continued US pressure.
Apr 20 2026
Trump posts on social media claiming Iran has agreed to an “unlimited” suspension of its nuclear program and to hand over enriched uranium;
Enrichment of Uranium drops to 6%7%
analysts note the statements are unverified
Apr 19 2026
Reports confirm Trump administration’s plan to unfreeze $20 billion in Iranian assets in exchange for uranium stockpile
Unfreeze Iranian Assets surges to 49%17%
Further confirmation of the $20 billion asset unfreezing proposal raises hopes for a deal, supported by ongoing diplomatic efforts involving Pakistan and other mediators.
Apr 18 2026
Trump administration signals willingness to unfreeze assets but insists on uranium stockpile surrender
Unfreeze Iranian Assets drops to 32%7%
US officials clarify that asset release is contingent on Iran giving up its enriched uranium, highlighting tough conditions and limiting the likelihood of unconditional asset unfreezing.
Apr 18 2026
Iran reverses reopening, fully closes the Strait of Hormuz again, fires on ships attempting transit, and warns vessels against approaching due to US blockade;
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz drops to 9%8%
this escalates military tensions and disrupts shipping
Apr 17 2026
Trump reiterates to Reuters that the U.S.
Enrichment of Uranium drops to 13%12%
will work with Iran to recover its enriched uranium, denying any cash‑for‑uranium deal
Apr 17 2026
Iran announces full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for commercial vessels during a ceasefire in Lebanon;
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz jumps to 17%10%
President Trump acknowledges reopening but maintains US naval blockade on Iranian ports, creating mixed signals and temporary
Apr 17 2026
Iran announces full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
Unfreeze Iranian Assets plunges to 39%23%
Iran’s reopening of the strategic Strait of Hormuz signals a positive step in negotiations but also raises complex security and economic considerations, causing market volatility.
Apr 17 2026
Trump administration considers unfreezing $20 billion in Iranian assets as part of nuclear negotiations
Unfreeze Iranian Assets surges to 62%17%
Reports emerge that the US is contemplating releasing $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds in exchange for Iran surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile, boosting market optimism about a potential deal.
Apr 14 2026
Vice President JD Vance publicly states the U.S.
Enrichment of Uranium rises to 39%1%
demand for a 20‑year enrichment pause, highlighting the gap with Tehran’s five‑year offer
Apr 13 2026
United States officially announces maritime blockade of Iranian ports following failed talks, with President Trump threatening limited strikes;
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz dips to 7%4%
blockade enforcement begins April 13, escalating conflict and uncertainty over Strait control
Apr 13 2026
Iran’s Parliament Speaker declares unfreezing Iranian assets a non-negotiable precondition for talks with the US
Unfreeze Iranian Assets dips to 47%3%
Iranian officials publicly state that the release of frozen assets is essential before any meaningful negotiations can proceed, setting a firm Iranian demand early in the timeline.
Apr 13 2026
Iran formally offers to suspend uranium enrichment for up to five years;
Enrichment of Uranium surges to 38%30%
the U.S. rejects the offer, insisting on a 20‑year moratorium
Apr 11 2026
US military begins mine-clearing operations in the Strait of Hormuz to secure passage amid rising tensions;
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz plunges to 11%16%
peace talks collapse on April 12 in Islamabad after 21 hours without agreement, leading to President Trump announcing a blockade of Iranian ports
Apr 9 2026
Iran demands cryptocurrency payments for Strait of Hormuz oil transit, requiring tankers to pay $1 per barrel in Bitcoin or Tether during a fragile ceasefire, signaling Iran's
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz drops to 27%10%
Iran demands cryptocurrency payments for Strait of Hormuz oil transit, requiring tankers to pay $1 per barrel in Bitcoin or Tether during a fragile ceasefire, signaling Iran's intent to monetize control and bypass traditional banking systems
Apr 8 2026
Trump publicly agrees to a two-week ceasefire with Iran but insists on Iran opening the Strait of Hormuz and halting uranium enrichment;
Oil Sanction Relief plunges to 37%18%
Iran demands sanctions relief and continued enrichment rights
Apr 7 2026
U.S. and Iran announce a two-week ceasefire amid escalating tensions;
Oil Sanction Relief surges to 55%27%
Trump threatens severe consequences if Iran does not comply with demands including reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending uranium enrichment
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran.
- Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports refers to U.S. restrictions that prohibit or limit the production, sale, transport, purchase, or export of crude oil, petroleum, or petrochemical products from Iran, including associated shipping, insurance, and financial transactions necessary for such exports. This includes both primary sanctions, which apply to U.S. persons, and secondary sanctions, which apply to non-U.S. persons or entities engaging in such activities.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or reduce such sanctions if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil
- The removal, suspension, waiver, or reduction of any such sanctions is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz refers to U.S. acceptance of Iran imposing tolls, transit fees, passage charges, or other mandatory payments on commercial vessels in exchange for transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to Iran charging such fees if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to accept Iran charging such fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
- Iran charging such fees is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to unfreeze any Iranian assets by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Unfreezing Iranian assets refers to the release, transfer, or restoration of Iranian access to any assets that are frozen, blocked, or otherwise inaccessible due to U.S. sanctions or restrictions. This includes both assets held in the United States and assets held in foreign jurisdictions where access is restricted due to U.S. sanctions. The removal of sanctions which freeze these assets will also be considered to be unfreezing Iranian assets.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to unfreeze Iranian assets if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to unfreeze any Iranian assets.
- The unfreezing of any Iranian assets is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.Amid stalled US-Iran negotiations following a fragile ceasefire extension, President Trump rejected Iran's latest April 28 proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for safe passage and collect transit fees while deferring nuclear and sanctions discussions to later stages. Trump, briefed by CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper on April 30, is weighing targeted strikes on Iranian infrastructure to pressure Tehran amid Iran's supreme leader vowing to preserve nuclear and missile programs. No public agreement on key Iranian demands—such as oil sanction relief, unfrozen assets, or uranium enrichment limits—emerged in April despite multiple deadlines and proposals, reflecting Trump's maximum pressure diplomacy and trader consensus on minimal concessions before potential escalation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports refers to U.S. restrictions that prohibit or limit the production, sale, transport, purchase, or export of crude oil, petroleum, or petrochemical products from Iran, including associated shipping, insurance, and financial transactions necessary for such exports. This includes both primary sanctions, which apply to U.S. persons, and secondary sanctions, which apply to non-U.S. persons or entities engaging in such activities.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or reduce such sanctions if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil - The removal, suspension, waiver, or reduction of any such sanctions is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports refers to U.S. restrictions that prohibit or limit the production, sale, transport, purchase, or export of crude oil, petroleum, or petrochemical products from Iran, including associated shipping, insurance, and financial transactions necessary for such exports. This includes both primary sanctions, which apply to U.S. persons, and secondary sanctions, which apply to non-U.S. persons or entities engaging in such activities.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or reduce such sanctions if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to remove, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil
- The removal, suspension, waiver, or reduction of any such sanctions is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.
Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Amid stalled US-Iran negotiations following a fragile ceasefire extension, President Trump rejected Iran's latest April 28 proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for safe passage and collect transit fees while deferring nuclear and sanctions discussions to later stages. Trump, briefed by CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper on April 30, is weighing targeted strikes on Iranian infrastructure to pressure Tehran amid Iran's supreme leader vowing to preserve nuclear and missile programs. No public agreement on key Iranian demands—such as oil sanction relief, unfrozen assets, or uranium enrichment limits—emerged in April despite multiple deadlines and proposals, reflecting Trump's maximum pressure diplomacy and trader consensus on minimal concessions before potential escalation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Apr 30 2026
No further definitive U.S. announcement of agreement;
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 0%2%
Iran’s parliament speaker rejects Trump’s claims, confirming that no deal on continued enrichment has been reached
Apr 29 2026
Trump vows to maintain Iran blockade despite Iranian threats, signaling no asset release
Unfreeze Iranian Assets dips to 2%1%
Trump’s firm stance on continuing the naval blockade and rejecting Iranian proposals signals a hardening US position, effectively ending hopes for asset unfreezing.
Apr 28 2026
Iran offers to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S.
Oil Sanction Relief dips to 2%1%
lifts its blockade and ends the war, but Trump signals rejection of the offer due to unresolved nuclear program disagreements
Apr 27 2026
Reports reveal U.S. naval blockade forcing Iran to store oil in poor conditions, increasing pressure on Iran but no sign of U.S.
Oil Sanction Relief dips to 3%4%
acceptance of oil sanction relief; Iran offers a proposal to lift blockade in exchange for sanctions relief, but Trump appears unlikely to accept
Apr 24 2026
Trump says he is awaiting Iran's offer but insists any deal must include Iran giving up enriched uranium and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, showing no concession on uranium
Oil Sanction Relief drops to 7%5%
Trump says he is awaiting Iran's offer but insists any deal must include Iran giving up enriched uranium and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, showing no concession on uranium enrichment
Apr 24 2026
Market reacts to contradictory signals and Trump’s social media posts disrupting talks
Unfreeze Iranian Assets plunges to 7%17%
Trump’s erratic public statements and social media activity create confusion and mistrust, undermining progress and sharply reducing market confidence.
Apr 24 2026
Iran's central bank confirms revenue from Strait of Hormuz transit fees deposited in cash currency, dispelling earlier claims of crypto-only payments;
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz dips to 3%1%
Iran asserts sovereignty and warns of further seizures if US aggression continues
Apr 23 2026
Iran confirms seizure of several foreign merchant vessels in the Strait, intensifying maritime standoff amid ongoing US blockade and sanctions enforcement;
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz drops to 4%5%
Iran also confirms collection of transit fees deposited in cash to its central bank
Apr 22 2026
Washington Post reports Trump faces similar trade-offs as Obama on Iran asset release
Unfreeze Iranian Assets rises to 24%4%
Analysis highlights Trump’s political dilemma over unfreezing assets despite prior criticism of Obama’s Iran deal, adding uncertainty to the market.
Apr 22 2026
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent testifies about the decision to let sanctions waivers expire despite pleas from vulnerable countries, signaling a hardening U.S.
Oil Sanction Relief drops to 12%8%
stance on sanctions relief for Iran
Apr 21 2026
Trump announces extension of Iran ceasefire but maintains naval blockade
Unfreeze Iranian Assets drops to 20%5%
While the ceasefire extension is positive, Trump’s decision to keep the blockade on Iranian ports dampens expectations for asset unfreezing, reflecting continued US pressure.
Apr 20 2026
Trump posts on social media claiming Iran has agreed to an “unlimited” suspension of its nuclear program and to hand over enriched uranium;
Enrichment of Uranium drops to 6%7%
analysts note the statements are unverified
Apr 19 2026
Reports confirm Trump administration’s plan to unfreeze $20 billion in Iranian assets in exchange for uranium stockpile
Unfreeze Iranian Assets surges to 49%17%
Further confirmation of the $20 billion asset unfreezing proposal raises hopes for a deal, supported by ongoing diplomatic efforts involving Pakistan and other mediators.
Apr 18 2026
Trump administration signals willingness to unfreeze assets but insists on uranium stockpile surrender
Unfreeze Iranian Assets drops to 32%7%
US officials clarify that asset release is contingent on Iran giving up its enriched uranium, highlighting tough conditions and limiting the likelihood of unconditional asset unfreezing.
Apr 18 2026
Iran reverses reopening, fully closes the Strait of Hormuz again, fires on ships attempting transit, and warns vessels against approaching due to US blockade;
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz drops to 9%8%
this escalates military tensions and disrupts shipping
Apr 17 2026
Trump reiterates to Reuters that the U.S.
Enrichment of Uranium drops to 13%12%
will work with Iran to recover its enriched uranium, denying any cash‑for‑uranium deal
Apr 17 2026
Iran announces full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for commercial vessels during a ceasefire in Lebanon;
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz jumps to 17%10%
President Trump acknowledges reopening but maintains US naval blockade on Iranian ports, creating mixed signals and temporary
Apr 17 2026
Iran announces full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
Unfreeze Iranian Assets plunges to 39%23%
Iran’s reopening of the strategic Strait of Hormuz signals a positive step in negotiations but also raises complex security and economic considerations, causing market volatility.
Apr 17 2026
Trump administration considers unfreezing $20 billion in Iranian assets as part of nuclear negotiations
Unfreeze Iranian Assets surges to 62%17%
Reports emerge that the US is contemplating releasing $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds in exchange for Iran surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile, boosting market optimism about a potential deal.
Apr 14 2026
Vice President JD Vance publicly states the U.S.
Enrichment of Uranium rises to 39%1%
demand for a 20‑year enrichment pause, highlighting the gap with Tehran’s five‑year offer
Apr 13 2026
United States officially announces maritime blockade of Iranian ports following failed talks, with President Trump threatening limited strikes;
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz dips to 7%4%
blockade enforcement begins April 13, escalating conflict and uncertainty over Strait control
Apr 13 2026
Iran’s Parliament Speaker declares unfreezing Iranian assets a non-negotiable precondition for talks with the US
Unfreeze Iranian Assets dips to 47%3%
Iranian officials publicly state that the release of frozen assets is essential before any meaningful negotiations can proceed, setting a firm Iranian demand early in the timeline.
Apr 13 2026
Iran formally offers to suspend uranium enrichment for up to five years;
Enrichment of Uranium surges to 38%30%
the U.S. rejects the offer, insisting on a 20‑year moratorium
Apr 11 2026
US military begins mine-clearing operations in the Strait of Hormuz to secure passage amid rising tensions;
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz plunges to 11%16%
peace talks collapse on April 12 in Islamabad after 21 hours without agreement, leading to President Trump announcing a blockade of Iranian ports
Apr 9 2026
Iran demands cryptocurrency payments for Strait of Hormuz oil transit, requiring tankers to pay $1 per barrel in Bitcoin or Tether during a fragile ceasefire, signaling Iran's
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz drops to 27%10%
Iran demands cryptocurrency payments for Strait of Hormuz oil transit, requiring tankers to pay $1 per barrel in Bitcoin or Tether during a fragile ceasefire, signaling Iran's intent to monetize control and bypass traditional banking systems
Apr 8 2026
Trump publicly agrees to a two-week ceasefire with Iran but insists on Iran opening the Strait of Hormuz and halting uranium enrichment;
Oil Sanction Relief plunges to 37%18%
Iran demands sanctions relief and continued enrichment rights
Apr 7 2026
U.S. and Iran announce a two-week ceasefire amid escalating tensions;
Oil Sanction Relief surges to 55%27%
Trump threatens severe consequences if Iran does not comply with demands including reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending uranium enrichment
"What Iranian demands will Trump agree to in April?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Enrichment of Uranium" at 0%, followed by "Oil Sanction Relief" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 0¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 0% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
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This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "What Iranian demands will Trump agree to in April?" is "Enrichment of Uranium" at just 0%, with "Oil Sanction Relief" close behind at 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.
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