Recent NOAA Climate Prediction Center and IRI outlooks drive the market's strong tilt toward a peak RONI above 2.5, citing an 81-90% chance of a very strong El Niño (peak at least +2.0) and 69% odds of a historic event exceeding prior records since 1950 during October-December 2026. Strengthening ocean-atmosphere coupling, including downwelling Kelvin waves that have deepened the thermocline and elevated eastern Pacific subsurface temperatures, has pushed weekly Niño 3.4 anomalies to +1.8–2.6°C while the three-month RONI reached +1.4°C for June-August. Multi-model ensembles show broad agreement on further intensification through boreal fall, with peak timing aligned to the seasonal maximum and persistence probabilities near 97% into early 2027. These factors align trader consensus with the observed rapid warming and reduced sensitivity of RONI to background tropical trends compared with the legacy ONI. The next CPC diagnostic discussion, due around September 10, could refine the plume as new model runs incorporate the latest observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhat will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?
What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?
Over 2.5 66%
2.25–2.5 29%
2.0–2.25 5.9%
1.5–2.0 2.7%
$24,530 Vol.
$24,530 Vol.
Mar 31, 2027
Under 1.5
<1%
1.5–2.0
3%
2.0–2.25
6%
2.25–2.5
29%
Over 2.5
66%
Over 2.5 66%
2.25–2.5 29%
2.0–2.25 5.9%
1.5–2.0 2.7%
$24,530 Vol.
$24,530 Vol.
Mar 31, 2027
Under 1.5
$801 Vol.
<1%
1.5–2.0
$1,803 Vol.
3%
2.0–2.25
$2,251 Vol.
6%
2.25–2.5
$8,822 Vol.
29%
Over 2.5
$10,853 Vol.
66%
This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is below +1.5°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +1.5°C and below +2.0°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +2.0°C and below +2.25°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +2.25°C and below +2.5°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is +2.5°C or above. Otherwise, it resolves "No". This market resolves "Yes" as soon as NOAA publishes a RONI value of +2.5°C or above for any listed season. If no listed season reaches +2.5°C, this market resolves "No" once NOAA has published the RONI value for DJF 2026-27.
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.Recent NOAA Climate Prediction Center and IRI outlooks drive the market's strong tilt toward a peak RONI above 2.5, citing an 81-90% chance of a very strong El Niño (peak at least +2.0) and 69% odds of a historic event exceeding prior records since 1950 during October-December 2026. Strengthening ocean-atmosphere coupling, including downwelling Kelvin waves that have deepened the thermocline and elevated eastern Pacific subsurface temperatures, has pushed weekly Niño 3.4 anomalies to +1.8–2.6°C while the three-month RONI reached +1.4°C for June-August. Multi-model ensembles show broad agreement on further intensification through boreal fall, with peak timing aligned to the seasonal maximum and persistence probabilities near 97% into early 2027. These factors align trader consensus with the observed rapid warming and reduced sensitivity of RONI to background tropical trends compared with the legacy ONI. The next CPC diagnostic discussion, due around September 10, could refine the plume as new model runs incorporate the latest observations.
This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is below +1.5°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 3:17 PM ET
Volume
$24,530End Date
Apr 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is below +1.5°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +1.5°C and below +2.0°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +2.0°C and below +2.25°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +2.25°C and below +2.5°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is +2.5°C or above. Otherwise, it resolves "No". This market resolves "Yes" as soon as NOAA publishes a RONI value of +2.5°C or above for any listed season. If no listed season reaches +2.5°C, this market resolves "No" once NOAA has published the RONI value for DJF 2026-27.
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.Recent NOAA Climate Prediction Center and IRI outlooks drive the market's strong tilt toward a peak RONI above 2.5, citing an 81-90% chance of a very strong El Niño (peak at least +2.0) and 69% odds of a historic event exceeding prior records since 1950 during October-December 2026. Strengthening ocean-atmosphere coupling, including downwelling Kelvin waves that have deepened the thermocline and elevated eastern Pacific subsurface temperatures, has pushed weekly Niño 3.4 anomalies to +1.8–2.6°C while the three-month RONI reached +1.4°C for June-August. Multi-model ensembles show broad agreement on further intensification through boreal fall, with peak timing aligned to the seasonal maximum and persistence probabilities near 97% into early 2027. These factors align trader consensus with the observed rapid warming and reduced sensitivity of RONI to background tropical trends compared with the legacy ONI. The next CPC diagnostic discussion, due around September 10, could refine the plume as new model runs incorporate the latest observations.
This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is below +1.5°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.
The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/).
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.
Volume
$24,530End Date
Apr 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent NOAA Climate Prediction Center and IRI outlooks drive the market's strong tilt toward a peak RONI above 2.5, citing an 81-90% chance of a very strong El Niño (peak at least +2.0) and 69% odds of a historic event exceeding prior records since 1950 during October-December 2026. Strengthening ocean-atmosphere coupling, including downwelling Kelvin waves that have deepened the thermocline and elevated eastern Pacific subsurface temperatures, has pushed weekly Niño 3.4 anomalies to +1.8–2.6°C while the three-month RONI reached +1.4°C for June-August. Multi-model ensembles show broad agreement on further intensification through boreal fall, with peak timing aligned to the seasonal maximum and persistence probabilities near 97% into early 2027. These factors align trader consensus with the observed rapid warming and reduced sensitivity of RONI to background tropical trends compared with the legacy ONI. The next CPC diagnostic discussion, due around September 10, could refine the plume as new model runs incorporate the latest observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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