**Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 4.25% federal funds rate by year-end 2026 (59.7%), reflecting the FOMC’s September 16 decision to raise the target range 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% and the median dot plot projecting 4.1% for end-2026.** The shift stems from elevated inflation, with 2026 PCE projections revised to 3.7% headline and 3.4% core—well above the 2% target and not expected to reach it until 2029—alongside stronger growth (2.3%) and a lower unemployment forecast (4.1%). Recent August PCE data at 3.4% eased some October hike odds, but officials including Williams and Kashkari still anticipate one additional tightening move, most likely in December, to address upside inflation risks amid resilient demand. This aligns with futures pricing an 88% chance of at least one more hike in 2026. Softer incoming data or labor-market cooling could alter the path, while further upside surprises in prices would reinforce the current trajectory.